PBF81

There's been only one constant over the past 7 seasons during which we've been completely unable to advance beyond the Divisional Round, then only once while losing the following week despite putting up equal to or more points than any other team in the playoffs that season. Given that it's been a pattern, it might be wise to look for a common denominator. Then again, maybe not. Probably just blind bad luck.

Andy Dalton and Tyler Boyd ended our drought. We were by far the weakest of two other 9-7 teams that missed the playoffs that season.

Well, isn't "what happens on the football field" directly related to coaching? The answer to that is obvious. Yet, there seems to be an illogical deliberate attempt to disconnect the two for purposes of discussion here, at TSW. Originally you said ... So let's take "13 Seconds." I'm not sure what else the offense courtesy of Allen & Davis could have done more than put up 422 Yards of offense and 36 points in regulation. Right? I'll take that every postseason game. I mean 36 points is more than every other playoff team put up, with two exceptions, in 12 games out of 24 team scores this postseason. That postseason it was more than everyone except us v. the Pats and KC in one game vs. the Steelers 20th ranked scoring D. So why'd we lose that game? Apart from the fact that our #1 ranked scoring D on the season allowed KC to post more points than it had in all but three regular season games, and against scoring defenses ranked 18th, 20th, and 26th, and only in the playoffs against the Steelers and their 20th ranked defense otherwise, isn't there another reason, not particularly related to on-the-field play, that was responsible? Seems so, but hey, what do I know. I also don't think that it's unfair to ask why in the playoffs in 2021 our #1 ranked D allowed over a TD more than the Chiefs had averaged all season; why in 2022 our 2nd ranked scoring D allowed more points to the Bengals than they had averaged all season, at home in Buffalo; or why our 4th ranked scoring D this season allowed the Chiefs over 5 points more than they had averaged all season, again, at home in Buffalo. Two weeks ago even the overall stats were generally all but identical and where they weren't the favored us otherwise. It's nice that we can beat the hell out of teams that are bubble playoff teams to begin with, with even some of those games being much closer than they should have been. It's been different players every season to one extent or another. Different OCs, and in one instance now a different DC. There's only been one constant. I get banned for mentioning it. So I won't.

Well yeah, but in several instances the specifics have been obvious. The general reasons in others are also obvious. We've been over them many many many times here over the past months. Some people simply refuse to acknowledge the obvious. Take "13 Seconds" for instance. It's well known why we lost that, and likely the Super Bowl that season as well. But simply because it hasn't officially been stated, many assume that there's some other reason. It is what it is/was.

In context, it's important to ask why we lost in the playoffs. We've only managed to beat low-end bottom seeds in the playoffs, and typically under quite favorable circumstances. Why? Beating Mac Jones, Skylar Thompson, Mason Rudolph, a washed-up Philip Rivers in his last game ever, and the Ravens with Jackson and Huntley splitting the game is hardly impressive under any circumstances. Those teams were seeded 6th, 7th, 7th, 7th, and 5th respectively.

From a scoring & yardage perspective on both O and D we're trending worse since 2020.

Dude looks like Dwight Shrute. Same last name as the actor too.

11.1% Drop%. Right next to Knox. Oddly, Davis was the best only worse than Shakir. Davis was at 3.7%. The only year that Davis had inordinately high drops was last season, 2022. FWIW

Apart from the Dallas game where the entire team was hitting on all cylinders, Cook averaged a pathetic 3.7 yards-per-carry under Brady. We'll see whether that continues. Any perceived increase in team rushing production came from Allen. It is what it is.

Just pointing it out. He had four 3rd-down carries this season, the team doesn't use him as a rusher on 3rd's. Murray had five times as many 3rd-down carries as Cook with only 20. Allen does most of our 3rd-down running. It is what it is.

He's not a 3-down RB.

Somewhat, but it's not so far off of the league mean that it should blur the core issue.

Diggs didn't seem to have too much trouble separating from Ramsey and Apple in week 18. On the first pass Allen overthrew him by a mile, on the second All underthrew him or it's a TD. Anyone watching these plays can easily see that he's running much shorter routes. The other noticeable thing is that since Brady took over we've had multiple receivers in the same exact spots/areas too often. It's clear that he's changed up the plays somewhat.

PFR has him down for: Week 5: 1 Week 6: 1 Week 7: 1 Week 10: 1 Week 11: 2 Week 14: 2 Divisional Playoff: 2 10 Total I know that the varying stat sites often differ in their drop stats. It's difficult finding official ones. NFL.com sucks for advanced stats generally speaking.

Davis was our only regular deep threat this season. Nearly half of Shakir's yards were after-the-catch. Our play design and play-calling, presumably in the interests of "complimentary football" clearly have something to do with it, the extent to which can be argued. Relatedly, Allen's Completed-Air-Yards/Completion are the lowest they've been since he's been here and down about 20% from last season. Yards-After-the-Catch for Allen's passes are up 24% from last season and also the highest of his career, spread fairly evenly among Diggs, Cook, Kincaid, and Shakir. Allen's Yards-After-the-Catch/Completion are the highest that they've been since his rookie season. So it would seem that it's by design.

Which other game did Diggs have a drop? What's interesting is that this narrative that Davis is the biggest culprit is false. He's second to lowest in Drop% this season. Last season was somewhat anomalous. Last season he had 9, in his three other seasons he's had 11 total. But it's last season's narrative that has turned him into a whipping boy. We missed him in the playoffs and will miss him next season as we simply don't have the scratch to buy other comparable WRs. He'll cost too much as well. I forgot about Cook, he's a big time drop artist, ... which is weird for a guy that has such a high Catch%. Off the cuff from memory though, it seems that most of his drops are deeper passes, again, without looking. His receptions are typically the high-percentage shorter types otherwise, so he's probably got sure hands on the high-percentage end, but struggles on the deeper throws not being a WR. Yeah, he was right down there with Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, and the forum's favorite WR, Deandre Hopkins, who was a percentage point lower. Could be the types of [deeper] routes that those types of WRs run. But what do I know. LOL

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2023_advanced.htm Click on Advanced Passing. That'll show you the totals, from there click on any player and their Advanced Passing and you can see their individual drops by game. Diggs has for under Brady, two each vs. the Jets and KC, both of which we beat. Kinaid had the, two against Dallas which we beat, and one against Philly. Davis had none. Shakir had none. Not sure where the others came from.

Rule of thumb #1 in evaluating players in the Draft, do your own homework. Do not rely on the reviews of anyone else, regardless of how prominent. Most draft reviews are little more than regurgitations of the first few to come out, which are typically by people like Kiper whose big hurrah and splash has always revolved around the Drafts. Many simply want to appear bright so they mimic the same points. They are more people doing it today than ever before, yet the deviations and digression of opinions is nearly non-existent. How else does anyone explain the fact that hardly anyone differs much in their rankings. I personally prefer walterfootball, but even then don't always agree. At least they do their own. There's quite a bit of meat in all of their analyses that they miss, largely because most do not do their own homework and analysis. Years ago, here, under a different name, forget what even, I posted that Mike Evans would end up being a much better WR than Watkins would be. The rash I took for that despite laying out all of the evidence as to why, and why Watkins would bust. Same the year that we drafted Hardy in round 2 and Johnson in round 7, it was clear that Hardy would bust and Johnson would be the better of the two WRs. Again, the rash taken. There are others too, and the point isn't LAMP, it is that anyone that steps outside the mold provided by the leading draft analyzers, that aren't typically anywhere near 60 or 70% correct, often embarrassingly so, get mocked and laughed at. So too, not leaving the lines on the road provides some hedge for GMs in case they whiff. As you pointed out, "everyone had the guy graded at ..., we did to." That's a whole lot safer for job security than going for a player that everyone has in the mid-2nd, and taking him in the late 1st because you did your own homework and likely won't get him in the 2nd, despite their being two, three, or four players at the position ranked higher. It takes a lot of time to properly evaluate a player on one's own time. Hours upon hours for a single player. Yet how many people pretending to be experts really invest that time. Properly evaluating 20 players could be a full-time job for a month. Some do, most do not, most merely regurgitate what they read elsewhere. Teams have the paid people in place to do all of that however. Many things still get overlooked because no one thought of them.

Yeah, I was just joking though.

Yeah, I was just kidding anyway.

They'd be crazy to get rid of a phenominal receiving RB like Hines. We need someone with great skills to not get involved in our offense. If not him, then who.

Well, we'll just have to draft another DE in round 1. Every year until we finally get it right then.

Yeah, no hurry. We're all busy. It's not as if bickering amongst ourselves is a priority. LOL I sincerely hope that you're doing OK.

Ahhh yes, it's that time of year. I'd jump on that. LOL

Hope things are OK. Yeah, that'd be great. We can discuss it then. See what the methodology for the analysis was.