PBF81

Who knows, because he was squawkin', Brady's design, Allen's choice, etc., I'm not sure we know or will ever know. Look, this is a more complex discussion than something with a boolean answer. I take heat for suggesting what it is. But I do recall while watching the later season games, asking myself why Diggs was lined up near the line, when the ball's snapped making a slant into the LBs. That's clearly not his gig. For example. I'd like to take a look at all the targets and where those passes ended up. Not every incompletion is a drop. I don't believe that "drops" are even an official stat, and different sources have different ways of counting them. But allow me to ask, on the dropped pass in the KC game that Diggs is taking heat for, to start, it was underthrown and he had to spin around, but aside from that, did it look to you as if he had lost a step?

Nor is defining and entire season on one or two plays. What I'm suggesting is just what was said, that players don't simply see a one or two year diminishment in play in a week or two, essentially overnight. That's ridiculous. Implied is that there is another reason(s).

It's more likely that Beane works for McD practically speaking, but reports to Pegula formally, with McD working for Pegula more directly. Beane was hired on McD's recommendation. We now have an ongoing conflict-of-interests.

It's unimaginable that he fell off from one game to the next as the narrative suggests. In fact, that's a fool's take. Barring an injury, and throughout NFL history, that's not the way diminishing play works.

Given the lack of candor and extreme secrecy regarding responsibility for massive failures from this staff, you're just coming to this conclusion now? 🤔

It's a great forecast, let's hope it's true. Would be a first for a Beane draft pick though.

Looks like the Chiefs will be in the market for a WR in three weeks.

Yeah, that sounds about right. Just realize that you have options. Yeah, good luck with that. LOL I say that affectionately. It's clear that while people like Kiper, who devote their careers to this stuff, are decent at ranking prospects, but poor at matching players with teams. Run that analysis sometime. LOL I can see the interest of it all, but man, talk about complexities. It is an analytical wonderland however. As to the shipping, who knows, maybe not, it'd just be a DVD and athletic departments have budgets for stuff like that, and it's a good guess that being from the UK might actually help you since the NFL is so focused on overseas growth, and the NCAA knows it. Either way, it doesn't hurt to ask.

Demeco Ryans isn't going to put up with crap from Diggs. They're not committed beyond this season, Diggs knows it too. It'll be interesting to be sure. There's a lot of "sour grapes" here positing that their WR corps is too crowded, but Cincy did just fine with Chase, Higgins, and Boyd, which we seemed to envy. Houston will be fine, at least for this season. The bigger question is how Stroud plays this season, but he appears to be for real and the next top QB. BTW, you should perhaps get an external hard drive if you're going to ask for the videos. LOL

That's more than most people that cite how good a draft prospect is do by a longshot, even as a geeky hobby. LOL If you haven't done so, contact the schools for the players you're interested in, tell them that you do this in a journalistic sense, and ask them for the game videos for every player for any games that you're interested in. They used to send them out on DVDs, not sure how they'd get them to you today, maybe online download or something. You'll get both views of every play that the player is on the field for, both from the endzone and the sideline. It'll save you a ton of time. You can likely even get it for that Yale tackle, if you really want, and you can ask for them by game, just contact the Yale athletic department, tell them that you're a draft profiler and that you want his video of whatever games you want. Indeed, every play does not carry meaning, but you can easily sift through the ones that do. I don't follow the Draft like you do, I only care who we draft anymore, and I'll do an "after" review for our 28th and 60th, but that's about it. I'll PM you to compare. I don't care that much anymore. LOL I file it under no sense in discussing things that aren't current or have no bearing on the Bills.

Isn't it kind of like that everywhere though? Consider here, when a player's here, he's great, much better than they typically are in reality, especially upon us signing them. When the leave, if they didn't perform, not to historical patterns, but to unfounded narratives, then they're worthless, a cancer, a detriment, "good riddance," etc. LOL That's just human nature. Trying to slice through it all is where the work is. Most people don't put in the time. I'll give one good example. Most people, everywhere, talk about draft prospects as if they know all about them, but most people merely read a few draft profiles and carry those. There's zero personal risk that way. If they're wrong, oh well, everyone was wrong, even Kiper or whomever. It takes a ton of time to evaluate a draft prospect. Back in the day you could order the offensive/defensive coaches' view video from sideline and endzone of every play that a particular player had, by player. Call/write the school, tell them you're a journalist, and they'd send them to you free of charge. I'm sure they'd still do that today. Today there's youtube, but that's far from comprehensive. But evaluating that video takes time, but it also allows you to come to your own conclusions. I love those highlight reels of some player from a Power-5 school beating up on Bowling Green, but is that a really good data point? How many players on Bowling Green are headed to the NFL, especially from that team for example. Who cares how a top prospect performed against the NCAA equivalent of a JV team. A better approach is to look at the tougher games against similar P5 competition that features opposing players that are headed to the NFL, right. But all that takes time, lots of time. By my estimation it takes a good 10+ hours to properly evaluate a player as if I were on a staff considering drafting him. But think about the ramifications. For just 30 players, at a 40 hr. work week, that's about two months of work, for someone doing it full-time. Reviewing most of the draft field is not even remotely possible for any single person. Hence, most people simply refer to the draft profiles, which are really all more or less scripted from one another in one or more forms. All of these "independent" draft sites, if you look, really don't have much different info than nfl.com's draft site, Kiper, etc. Any player can be made to look like he should be the first overall pick from highlight videos. Any player can be made to appear to be among the most overrated. That's where teams should be earning their keep, in their independent analyses. It's why, for example, anyone looking back in the day, could easily see that Mike Evans would be the far better overall prospect than Watkins. Watkins made his collegiate living as a man among boys and largely on plays that simply do not work at the NFL level. So why would it be any different simply because a bunch of draft analysts said so. And on that note, how much work, on top of all the other stuff that they do, are those analysts really putting in besides highlight reels, which again, are often against week and feeble opponents. The very first thing that anyone should look at for top prospects on highlight reels, is the helmets of the team that they playing, and how good the opposing players on that team are. The second thing is how well they performed in their biggest of games. I'm not a big Caleb Williams fan for that reason, to me he's got a high percentage to bust. BJT OTOH hits those notes. That's not to say that he's a "can't miss" prospect, but if he's there he'd be a good choice but I wouldn't trade up at the cost of additional relevant pics to get him either. Anyway, again, just my two cents.

They blather to make money. They make money because people listen to them blather. Always rely on your own assessments, ignore them completely. As to the look, it's not a good look from several perspectives. First, it was more sudden and seemingly driven by dissention between Diggs & the team. It wasn't planned this way by Beane. Secondly, despite contrary narratives, this leaves is in a hole, a big one. One that further challenges the narratives on Allen (right or wrong) and the "window." Third, it wasn't planned this way, but at the same time, Beane didn't seem to have even the slightest backup plan or contingency for the somewhat imminent diminishment in Diggs' skills at any time, and regarding the only WR on Allen's watch that has made a big impact. It's also big news and it's Diggs. It's controversy, which sells. More blather, more money. It's definitely going to be an interesting season. The emergence of Houston, our situation with the WRs, Brady, etc. Just my two cents.

LOL Let's see what everyone's take is re: Brady at seasons end. Why so vindictive? I know I'm probably the only one stepping out with that. Is there another? LOL. What, you really think that people don't think that's a foolish take right now? Of course they do. You've been on my pant leg for a couple of weeks now. Go find someone's lawn to piss on for a while.

Then why respond. 😉

Take it with a grain of salt. Allen needs WRs. But the wailing and moaning here over us not having any good WRs apart from Diggs on Allen's watch, LOL, barring us taking a WR at 28th, and assuming that one works out well as a rookie, buckle up, it's going to be a laugh riot here.

As to BJT, it's important to look at how these prospects played in the biggest of games and against competition that is destined for the NFL. Based on the write-ups it's confusing what to make of BJT. But he played exceedingly well in the bigger games. That's relevant.

Yeah, I caught that too on the nfl.com draft profile. What's interesting is, for once, the diversity in the reviews of the top WRs in the draft across the spectrum of draft sites. Typically they all say similar things, probably because they all draw from the same two or three original sources that also seem to largely be in agreement. But for the top WRs it's scattered this year. It gives pause about the talk about the WR class. Not expectedly. Aka percentage wise. Mr. Irrelevant, Purdy. But your not going to trade your day 1 & 2 picks for a dozen 7th rounders. Come on now, let's keep things in the realm of reasonability here.

Historically Thurman's correct. Trading up to get a WR is a fool's game. I might do it for Harrison this year, because Allen's rotting on the vine only, but that won't be an option. Diminishing the value of next year's picks seems fine now, but next year we'd regret it unless that player shattered rookie expectations. Beane's track record of that is zilch on top of it all. We currently only have two picks this year in the range of possibly getting NFL starters. Selling the farm and reducing that to one isn't it best strategy. Beane needs to start hitting better on draft picks however.

Seems that he regretfully made the move for the simple reason that you can't have a player that said/implied what Diggs did on the team. There no indication that this was planned much less expected, until very recently, much less that they wanted this. If it is, then they've been flat out lying to everyone for a long while.

Yes, that's how narratives work. At the same time, it's not Brady's work that put up two defensive TDs in those games in weak scoring games to prevent that from being 4-3. Playing the Chargers and their 24th ranked with another relatively weak offensive showing, with them playing without their best the players, Herbert, Allen, and Bosa, in yet another squeaker won in the last seconds, prevented that from sliding to 3-4. That's additional information that someone analyzing the situation would consider valuable. Most want the most simplistic views possible. There's plenty of data and info it there to be able to reasonably come to the conclusion that Brady's in over his head and under McD's thumb in that way. No need to argue it. I'll play the fool for now. Just saying that there's plenty of info at anyone's disposal to put together a more accurate assessment. People at large prefer the emotional approach however. Which is fine. Again, nothing we say here changes anything. Some simply see beyond the superficial.

That's the point of contention. It's also not what I observed. It also doesn't fit the particulars of team offensive play under Brady. It's a chicken/egg thing. Well get more clarity on that this season.

Well, over the past several seasons aftermarket prices have been nuts in this stadium. Maybe the riff-raff has already been cut out. It stands to reason that the riff-raff wouldn't be STHs anyway. Any trouble and they wouldn't be for long. BTW, what's this org chart comment that people are referring to, I missed it. Would like to be in on the humor.

Yeah, that game left us with much to think about. KC's EZ fumble, Wide Right, etc. That's an interesting game to look at. It's somewhat of a conundrum. We ran 78 plays to their 47. We averaged 4.7 YPP which is low, as in bottom-dwellingly low. They averaged 7.7. Time of Possession 37 to 23 us. It's befuddling to be sure. But what was the case is that there was no shortage of short-yardage plays in that game, McD's "complimentary football" on display. Our longest completed pass on that day was 15 yards to Diggs. Murray also caught one for 15 but that was a short pass that he ran the rest for. That's Brady football as directed by McD's "complimentary football" approach. They obviously deliberately did that. It was similar the week prior vs. Pittsburgh. In both games our above-average offense managed only to match the average YPP allowed on the season by both defenses. One would think that a top-ranked offense would do better than what the opponent had allowed on average. Miami averaged the same, the Ravens 6.3 YPP. Either way, get used to that approach, because whether fans realize it or not, that's what McD wants. That's what he means when he says "complimentary football." We know that he's not wise in the ways of offense, so the issue that many of us have with that is that, again, it's not even remotely using Allen to maximize his contributions other than his rushing. Allen posted 189 and 186 yards passing in those two games. I'm not sure what anyone expects in terms of WR production when there's an average of 34 attempts in both games, and an average of 23 total completions. That's not a lot of balls for receivers to gain the kind of yardage from that everyone's critical of us not getting. Under Brady, in 6 of 9 games Allen hasn't exceeded 240 yards passing. He's averaged 33 attempts/game, for a bottom-dwelling 60.7% under Brady, his worst for any significant stretch of games since 2019. That was with receivers he's known and played with for several seasons. He's going to get worn out playing like that. Averaging 9 carries/game under Brady he'd average about 150 carries on the season. If he doesn't do that, who's going to run the ball on 3rd-downs? He took more 3rd-down carries than the rest of the team combined with 43. Those are typically the toughest yards to get. Cook had 4, all season. Murray had the second most with 20, but averaged a mere 2.0 on those. Is he still with us? Anyway, that's how we played under Brady. IMO it's not sustainable over an entire season to have your QB run that much, and now, particularly since our receivers won't exactly be inducing fear in the minds of the DCs and defenses that we face. It's easy to say that we'll adjust by doing [such and such] but it's more difficult in practice. McD isn't for being a great Adjustments coach, and will he even try to adjust from something that he's forcing to begin with is the question. We'll see if the Draft changes anything, but as of now the only significant picks that we have that even realistically sniff at a hint of making a rookie impact are 28th and 60th. The rest are day-2 fodder picks. On top of that, Beane's track record with rookie production isn't great. Kincaid did better but still didn't match the hype. Torrence was good too, but we need WRs now.

If it's that simple, why as a 2nd-rounder has Samuel not been able to exceed a career average of about 500 yards and 3 TDs/season? Don't say the QB, that's pretty abysmal for any 2nd-round WR regardless of the circumstances. We had crap WRs do as much with the litany of QBs we've had during out drought era. You're right in the sense that it's simple, ... on paper. In practice it may not be so simple. We'll find out in five months.

LOL Finding players to not step up isn't the question here. Feel free. Not interested in a straw-man statistical exercise. Any teams that win the Super Bowl and even make the Super Bowl have players that step up come playoff time. That's the only "mathematical exercise" here that matters. It's not a difficult concept or anything that's difficult to validate. Just go look at the stats from those games. Look at the teams that win them, they all have players that consistently stepped up other than their QBs. For KC the most notable have been Kelce. We can't simply waltz into the playoffs proclaiming we have Allen as if he's Superman, and go win a Super Bowl without any players otherwise stepping up. That's what we're talking about here. Not arbitrary probabilities ignoring the teams that have those players, while we do not.