PBF81

Well, we'll certainly see. What they say when they draft and sign these guys is often diametrically opposed. Jones is a great example. Seems likely that we're either going to have a very explosive season offensively, or that Allen's going to have a relatively down year statistically. One or the other. He's also never gotten anywhere near as many carries & touches that he got last season, either in the NFL or in college.

No real argument with most of that although the Packers put up 27 offensive and Denver matched our 24. In terms of yards gained, 1st-Downs achieved, and passing yards, we were very much in the middle of the stack vs. KC. In rushing we were low-end against them. There wasn't a lot of garbage time in most of KC's games either. But given what you said, you seem to imply that if there's a fault in our greater system, that it's on Beane, which is quite possible, t least partially. But given what you said, is there anything else that you would consider that might be an issue in the causation of that all?

Six more days 'til we find out, but if that's the logic, the week 18 game against May be against the Jets whom many consider to be the top challenger for the East. They split with us with Wilson at QB whereas Miami once again dropped both games vs. us. Now the Jets have Rodgers back.

You missed one simple thing. Absolutely no one in our team besides Allen has consistently stepped up in the playoffs, not one player, as in zero. Since our primary problem isn't getting to the playoffs, aka not the regular season, it's our postseason performance in that regard, and where our defense folds and underachieves more often than not, what is the explanation for that in your assessment? Allen's a what, top-2 QB? There aren't many, if any, top 5 or 6 QBs watching the playoffs come January. It's not difficult for teams with to QBs to simply make the playoffs today unless they have zero defense and few skill position players. This past season the top 8 yardage and top 6 TD QBs all made the playoffs.

LOL, indeed. Seriously though, from the angle that we'll get up for Miami it makes sense, but losing to them seems all but inconceivable. NE and the Jets beat us once each those past season, NE nearly twice, and both teams have improved. It's not difficult to envision us splitting with them again, or the Jets even taking two.

Cook petered out late in the season. He averaged a pathetic 3.6 yards-per-carry in his last five games. Not sure whether that was how he was used or simply being unused to that many touches. How this season plays out will be incredibly interesting. We had an even higher rated RB in Moss, very similar in style to Davis, and far more accomplished in college, and we didn't seem to know how to use him and didn't do much with him. There certainly isn't any clear plan in view.

We haven't lost to the Dolphins though other than in that heat game in which we entirely outplayed them, and otherwise since Allen's 7th ever start and his first game against them, in Miami. We own Miami. The Jets H/A games many think will be our toughest. If Rodgers stays healthy that's likely the case, no?

We're not simply "throwing out three games ...", we're discounting them because they were the three best games of his career, his only three games with 5 passing TDs each. The difficulties come in that the teams against which that occurred, two were ranked DFL and 31st in passing D, which renders any performance less than stellar. The other team had the 25th ranked passing D. It just so happens that they all happened to be in the same season. Otherwise, and we can use varying metrics, but in terms of passing TD production, Newton has ranked accordingly; 2011: 12th in TDs, 15th in Rating 2012: 21st in TDs, 15th in Rating 2013: 14th in TDs, 16th in Rating 2014: 20th in TDs, 26th in Rating 2015: 5th in TDs, 7th in Rating 2016: 20th in TDs, 28th in Rating 2017: 15th in TDs, 24th in Rating 2018: 14th in TDs, 17th in Rating In his 13 other games against teams that weren't the two worst and one comparable, his per-season average in those games would also have placed him at 14th in TDs. Even so, in 2015, in his proficiency metrics within that "remarkable" season were: 27th in Compl. % 16th in Passing Yards 12th in 1st Down production 10th in Success% 26th in Sack% 23rd in Yards-per-Game 12th in Net Yards per Attempt The data suggest all but indisputably that Newton was always nothing more than an average QB, even in that 2015 season. OK You have a point based upon scant data and you're immovable. That's fine. But there's no need to belabor the argument. It's also not particularly important. It's clear that both the Panthers under Rivera and our team under McD have both underachieved, perhaps them more so, particularly given some of the really standout talent on their team, but similarly in the playoffs.

Even the worst teams beat a good team or two many seasons. The 1-15 Cowboys beat the 10-6 Skins as their only win in '89 I think it was. Otherwise, it's also wild calling a team that largely beat losing teams all season long with one of the easiest schedules in modern history as something other than overrated. It's arguable either way I suppose. The greater point is that Newton was a very average QB other than in a single season, and that season was carried by his three best career games against the two worst passing Ds in the league and the 25th ranked passing D, for 15 of his 35 TDs. Newton was always a very average passer. The Panthers were a mixed bag under that coaching staff. Hot 'n cold from one season to the next, never any consistency.

We'll see, but IMO it'll go beyond the talent and into the approach. Some would still no doubt defer that if that were to be the case.

Not arguing that I'm the least. It's a great guess that by this season's end there's going to be a lot of criticism of Brady's approach in conjunction with our complimentary football MO.

I won't disagree, but let's not lose sight of the greater point, that an easy schedule, and there's zero denying that Carolina had an easy schedule that season, makes for an easier season and when the tough games come up, teams aren't as warn out. Common sense too. NE had that arrangement in our crap division throughout Brady's tenure.

So did four other teams. They were 10-6, not 14-2. Either way, of the argument is that they beat two good teams all season, sure. It was still one of the easiest schedules of any team in the NFL over two decades. That's a fact.

Carolina played the worst offensive game of any team that Denver faced that season.

Well, OK, but one of two good teams they played all season, 1-1. And Denver's offense was awful, far worse than Arizona's. Arizona was easily the more complete team. 42 offensive points vice 10? One win all season against any team that made it past the divisional round is hardly a harbinger of greatness. 12 of their 17 regular season games were against teams 8-8 or worse and with negative point-differentials.

Correct, one team/game all season. Seattle was not tough. Denver had Manning (P) before he unceremoniously slinked off after having posted the worst season of any starting QB that season. 9 TDs, 17 INTs, and the worst rating in the league. They were all but shut out against Denver's D which was about the same as Arizona's.

Was it really a drop-off though? He was an incredibly average QB in every other season, no? ... by any measure. On that season his passing stats were skewed by three monster 5 TD games against the two worst ranked paying D teams and the 25th ranked. Those were the the best passing games of his entire career. The rest of his season was also incredibly average.

Emphasize apex. Five losing seasons out of eight otherwise. Apart from that season, Rivera was 61-62 there. His playoff track record apart from that one season is similar in futility to ours. The apple hasn't fallen far from the tree. Rivera was there for 8 seasons before getting fired and going to DC they everyone saw how bad he really was. They had crazy good talent in several positions, underachieved in major ways. My primary point was that that '15 season is vastly overrated as the season had their streets paved with gold, their schedule could not have been more accommodating had the schedule makers tried to make it easier. Literally.

That Carolina season is so overrated that it's ridiculous. They had one of the easiest schedules during our entire drought era. They had not one team with more than 10 wins in their schedule, and then only two at 10-6. Not one team in their division scored more points than it allowed. That should be factors into any discussion.

More so defensively. The rules changes have favored the offense/scoring, but the size of the athletes offensively have remained about the same.

They did have a ridiculously easy schedule that season. Which could be why they had losing records both before and after that season.

It will definitely be interesting to see what our base alignments are. If we really do plan on running with a power-running game more, that will obviously limit the number of WRs on the field. There are a lot of curiosities going into this season. BTW, as is mine. All I've done is point out the inconsistencies from season to season and between the team's lipservice and reality, as well as the disconnects otherwise.

Stop putting words in my mouth please. I know what I think and say, thank you. And sorry, I didn't realize that all of the playoffs prior to last season's were under Brady, or that 13-Seconds occurred under Brady, so please pardon my ignoring of reality there. Otherwise, yes, he's been the head coach here for 7 seasons. Doesn't it stand to reason then that his fingerprints would be all over those seasons and the entirely lackluster performance in our playoffs, particularly on the defensive side? What, you're so angry now that you've lost all sense of logic? Please, stop this. Instead of whining, how about tackling some of the content in my post to oldmanfan? What, too much thinking for you? Otherwise, feel free. Indeed. You asked for info, I provided some, that's all. Always happy to engage.

Then stop it! I don't believe that I mentioned McDermott once in that post other than for the factually validated, by him primarily, reference to his definition of complimentary football and only in passing reference. That's it. The post was about Coleman, Diggs, etc. And frankly, you know what has to absolutely stop, is how he's got precious little to do with any issues that this team has, particularly in games like 13-Seconds and i the playoffs more generally. What has to stop is the incessant excuse-making and how little if any of it relates to him. These implications that his signature isn't all over this team are childish and absurd. We're the only team in the entire league that isn't defined by its head coach's overall methodology apparently. As long as you started it and we're in full disclosure mode.

Sorry it's taken me so long to get back to you, been on the road and no time for anything fun. You are correct there, the absolute best QBs in the history of the game, at least in the modern era, were excellent if not masterful at that "all over the field," or short-medium passing game, which is referred to as the high-percentage passing game as you are aware. There's a reason for that title, ... high-percentage. LOL Your statement about Coleman making "big plays out of bubble screens" is issue-laden. To start, his bubble-screen or otherwise screen plays at FSU rarely amounted to anything significant. Again, I'll itemize all of his plays, but again, if you watch that every pass video it's beyond clear. So the question that begs itself, is whether or not, having not been successful at it in college, he'll be successful in the NFL. The answer seems obvious, and back when we drafted Watkins, who's background was similar, yet with him simply possessing notably greater speed, not even atleticism, Watkins too made a living off of bubble screens in college, which simply do not work to that extent in the NFL. Regarding your bringing the D up closer to the line statement, that sounds great, but it's also tremendously oversimplified. And Coleman isn't the type that even if he were to catch a bubble-screen pass, that he'd be difficult to run down. Again, I think you'd really get a lot from that every pass video. I've gotten the same exact feeling about him that I got from Hardy whenever we drafted him, and Watkins more recently just on a lower level. ... from that video, hard evidence. As to the "more weapons," we'll see. Numbers of weapons are one thing, but it's the quality, and as you and I often disagree, on how they are used, which appears to be a quite serious shortcoming for our offense this season notwithstanding. We'll see but my confidence is the lowest it's been since pre-Daboll. As to your last two points, the second one you are correct, we have no clue, but recognize this, if it is true, then we were seriously lied to all of last offseason/preseason/season. That doesn't sit very well, or shouldn't. Also, when can you believe these guys then, you can't. As to the first point there, Brady wanting to diversify the offense more, we'll have to disagree on that. It's clear from where a lot of us sit, that Brady's being driven by McD's Complimentary Football approach, which focuses on defense, rushing, and a shorter passing game. How do we know this, in word-salad fashion, McD's told us so. Make no mistake, Brady takes his general offensive marching orders from McD. He owes McD for the promotion, he's not going to be at odds with his overall strategy, for as lacking as it may be. Either way, let's look at the primary narrative regarding Diggs. It's that "he lost a step" last season. Let's forget for a moment that that step was seemingly lost from one game to another, essentially when Brady took over, which would be the first time in NFL history that a WR "lost a step" to that extent within a few days. If the narrative holds true, and we'll find out for certain this fall, then one would expect that among his worst (aka most tapered off) games, would be the last of the regular season. But watch this highlight video from that game, and only two plays are being referenced here, not the entire game. But check out at the 2:53 mark where he dusts Ramsey, does that jibe with the narrative? Then again at the 5:00 mark where Diggs actually had to slow down after beating Apple before making a great grab of an underthrown ball, does that fit the narrative? Also, look at how Diggs is used otherwise, that's telling too. Also, an example of what I mentioned before, that we'll get into more, look at the 4:33 mark, if Allen hits Cook as soon as he sees him break, that's a gain of 7 or 8, more if Apple misses the tackle, on 1st-and-10, but instead he waits, hoping something will open up and then throws it to Knox on the sideline. Sometimes it works deeper, sometimes not, but we're talking about him focusing on the high-percentage passing game, which would have been the short out to Cook there. The question isn't which had the better outcome, but in terms of how he'll be used this season, which was the smarter play. There are dozens and dozens of those from last season. His production absolutely plummeted from 87 YPG to 45, half of that. But most importantly, if Diggs really lost a step, it's odd that his Yards-per-Reception-Before-Catch dropped by over 30% from 8.2 to 5.6 yards, but this Yards-per-Reception-After-Catch remained the same at 3.7. Anyway, here's that highlight video;