PBF81

Yeah, agreed. I also won't believe anything that Legends puts out. They're not "Buffalo," have no affinity for the region, and probably don't care at all about WNY-ers. Why would they. It will be much more interesting once they've gone through a majority of STHs and put out info as to how many of the new seats & PSLs have sold, and where.

Thanks for your candor. That's fine, but then don't ask me to repeat info purely at your personal behest when it's already been provided with much supporting evidence. Imagine if you wrote a post explaining your position with all sorts of detail and supporting documentation, I only skimmed it, but then commented, "challenged assumptions," and otherwise argued your points which were fully contained and outlined in your post? How would that sit with you? ... or if I commented on one of your posts during an interaction between you and someone else, while taking something entirely out of context to "argue" your position? We all do that once in a while, but you do it as a rule, at least with me. Otherwise, it's also quite a bit hypocritical to challenge the well annotated and well reasoned out arguments of others, while providing little if any actual info much less factual data yourself to the contrary and to arguments that you stand by. And again, I've offered several times now to go through game video in detail to illustrate for you, upon your not only challenging but also arguing points, to validate them one way or the other and investigate further, and you've refused every time. Even just one game to give you a glimpse. That's also a bit hypocritical.

Indeed, those would be coveted seats no doubt. The lowest priced heated seats according to their survey are that one and these; Location: Mezzanine level end zone Coverage: Significant Heating: Above seats Annual price per seat: $820 One-time PSL: $2,100 Location: Mezzanine level corner Coverage: Significant Heating: Above seats Annual price per seat: $1,090 One-time PSL: $1,750 After those, the next "reasonably priced" heated seats in their survey were these ... Location: Mezzanine level between 40-yard lines Coverage: Significant Heating: Above seats Annual price per seat: $2,080 One-time PSL: $5,950

Yeah, it's interesting, the first time I went to one of those stadiums it was a little concerning, but as with you no doubt you get used to it. The view more from the top than the side is also a plus.

And of course better for our fans to ride the railings after knocking down a few.

If you're not going to read my posts that explain all that, then there's zero sense in us communicating in this manner. I'm getting tired of shagging your foul balls. So for that reason I'll simply give you a thumbs up in the future and ignore you. I understand if you don't want to read the longer posts of mine, which is fine, but then don't comment asking questions, "challenging assumptions," or otherwise responding when what you ask for is provided in them. Granted, they're not for everybody. I spend a LOT of time researching and cataloging data and info. To ignore it is insulting.

Constantly disagreeing with me while offering little if any substance to the contrary is not challenigng assumptions, it's stalking. I've asked you several times now what that offensive plan is, you've said/provided nothing. I've offered, based upon your "challenging of assumptions" if we can legitimately call it that, to go through a single game highlight reel, or more, and provide the answers to your challenges, but you refused and defaulted to the let's just wait and see "argument." Otherwise, when I engage with another poster that claims that the plan may be to use Davis as a short-yardage RB, per your quoting of me two of your posts above, and you leapfrog that entirely and inject narrative nonsense, yeah, I'd say that's stalking. I've offered quite a bit of my time in answering your questions, going through video, etc., but you constantly shut that down. Other times you've challenged facts, not assumptions, then went on as if they didn't exist. So again, yeah, at this point I consider it to be stalking. The context was the offense. There were a slew of statements back then. Read into them as you wish, but it was clear that he was referring to the offense. It's also not as if it's a big secret. But hey, if you believe that McD has solutions on offense, who am I to argue. And I'm sure he does, just not effective or knowledgeable ones, and the continued underachieving of our offense spells something out, a something that presumably could be argued. McD is also an expert at scapegoating reasons for our failures. Reading here I think we're the only team in the league whose ultimate performance does not rely upon its head coach.

Thanks! And yes, I would agree with you there. Otherwise you really said a mouthful, perhaps without intending to. We could discuss this for pages as there are numerous complexities beyond high-level stats and "eye tests." That's a good topic for discussion. Is it a fair way to make the comparison? (BTW, I get 25.0 PPG, not 26.6. Did you remove the STs and D TDs in the NE & Miami games?) If it is a fair way to make the comparison, then here's what I noticed about that. You broke it down by the first 4 games and the last 6 games. But our first game, season opener, on the road, was far more like one of Brady's late season games than much else. I'd say games 2-4, then games 5-10, then games 11-14, and if we're going to apply the same standard, per your "unsustainable bump" comment above, and in fairness to the trend/pattern under Dorsey that began after four games, games 15-17. That's to start, but let's create an order for discussion here. We as a team have a history of "unsustainable bumps" in our season-long performances. We're typically very strong at the home-opener, and in the case of some games, typically at home, that are huge games. The Dallas game fell into that category last season. After our defensive collapse vs. the Eagles in allowing them their 2nd best offensive game on the season, a pall was cast over all things Bills. But then next week, if for no other motivation, we beat our nemesis the Chiefs, which offered a renewed albeit slim hope for making the playoffs much less winning the division. So we got up bigly (LOL) for the Dallas game and dusted them. But then things kinda fell apart from a performance perspective despite the fact that we won the next three games, entirely unimpressively it can be added. Take the Chargers game. We barely beat the Chargers and managed only 24 offensive points, while allowing 22 points to them. First, this was a team fielding Easton Stick at QB, and to make matters less impressive, Ekeler at RB, and with two rookies, Derius Davis and Quentin Johnston at WR, perrenial 3/4 WR Palmer, journeyman Alex Erickson, and roster-bubble WR Jalen Guyton as their WR corp and with no TE of any significant consequence. That's an offensive skill position roster that makes our WR cadre look like an All-Pro team. So was the defense holding that unit to 22 points and 273 yards, with Easton going a very efficient 23 of 33 for 215 passing yards, and another 25 rushing yards and a TD there, impressive? Consider as well, that we allowed more points to that Herbert-less Chargers team than any of the other four teams that played them. Additionally, five other teams held them to fewer points, a lot fewer in most cases, against the team when it had Herbert and Keenan Allen. 20, 17, 17, 10, and 6 there. So was that defensive performance really impressive? ... or something to be regarded as something other than underachieving for a 4th ranked D? I won't go into the same detail, which also has mitigating circumstances per the above, like Zappe playing QB for NE, or the fact that the TD pass to Sherfield in the Miami game involved a lot of luck for that batted pass to end up where it did with Sherfield making a phenominal play after doing absolutely nothing significant all season. But let's break it down by those last three games however using the same metrics that you used above. Brady Last Three Games: 363 YPG 32:46 ToP 19.3 PPG What sticks out there? Similar YPG. Marginally but relatively insignificant reduction in ToP. But what, a near TD/game drop in production. So here's how I look at that and see more cause for concern than I do for hope. With an average advantage in those three games of 82 YPG, 5:32 in ToP, 3.7 more 1st Downs, not to mention Allen v. Schtick & Zappe in two of those games, yet only a .3 PPG advantage? That's attributable to the offense. In short, ball movement was similar, but our ability to put points on the board diminished significantly, very significantly in fact. 19.3 PPG would have been good for 26th in the league that's how poor it was. And, at a time when every game was needed to simply make the playoffs. Moreover, it's not as if any of those defenses were any good. The Chargers ranked 24th, NE 15th, and Miami 22nd. So getting back to the question, is how you presented it a fair way to make a comparison? Is it comprehensive? Obviously not. I attribute it to the second bolded part, an unsustainable bump for a new coach, and, the meddling of a defensive-minded head coach who seemed to believe that the rushing from Cook in the Dallas game was sustainable over the long haul when there's absolutely nothing historically in his dossier that even remotely suggests that could even reasonably be the case. Right? In fact, they talked about Allen running too much, then increased Allen's rushing load under Brady, going from 4.8 carries/game and 24.6 rushing yards, nearly doubling to 9.0 carries and 39.7 rushing yards. Is that really where this team with Allen needs to go as he ages? Cook under Brady, apart from that single outlier Dallas game, saw his YPC avg. plummet to 3.6 YPC with not a TD to be found. Is that sustainable? One might say that's why we drafted Davis. Well, OK, but that also involves an entirely different offensive mindset than pitched by McD a year ago and after ditching Moss, who once again, had a notably more prolific career both rushing and receiving than Davis did in college. Moss' draft profiles are greater than Davis' as well. So we'll see there, but honestly, why the hope there? True, which is why I prefer as much info as possible. I would say that the offense looked fantastic in games 2-4 and in games 11, 12, and 14 under Brady and similar to Dorsey's fast start, as both seemed to settle into, not even mediocrity, but well below-average production otherwise and considering that we have Allen. In our 11 other games we averaged 20.5 PPG, which on a season would be good for 20th on the season. So while it's nice that we can dust poor teams like the Raiders, the Skins with their league worst D, a hapless Jets team by the time we played them, a very overrated Eagles team, and even Dallas who came off of an emotionally draining huge Sunday night game the week before, and of course Miami, who all but literally cannot beat us since we've had Allen, it's the steady-stated that matters. As to the two playoff games, our staff being out of answers on how to maximize our offensive roster, once again just stepped out of the way allowing Allen to do everything including running the ball, which they wisely said they wanted to get away from a year earlier thereby confusing matters even more, to the tune of over 40% of the rushing plays and all three rushing TDs. That unsustainable seems to apply here as well. Lastly, as to your statement where the offense looked unstoppable at the beginning of the season and then very out of joint at the end of the season. Why do you think that is? Do the other teams that win their divisional round games suffer from the same, year in and year out? Thoughts? Neither do you. What we do know is what they say is not what they do. Acquire Hines as a prolific pass catcher out of the backfield, then don't even remotely use him in that capacity. All's well with Diggs when they've known or a while that it isn't. Need a faster offense with a Cook type RB. Now we're going in the complete opposite direction. Draft Davis, someone with a worse draft profile (nfl.com and pff et al.) than Moss, with Moss having been more prolific at everything with similar build and style. There's more, but to start. Otherwise, what is their plan? Is it evident? Otherwise feel free to quit stalking me. Come on now, McD openly stated in a press conference that he has zero answers as to solutions for our offense midseason last year.

I'd have qualms if Davis supplants Cook and ends up playing like Moss did here. LOL What the team says can't be trusted or relied on. What every fan should have qualms over is the blatant lack of a year over year MO on offense. As to McDefense, he's already admitted that he doesn't know about offense. No help there. As to Brady, all we can do is wait and see what Brady does as we're merely helpless observers, and hope that he has enough room to change things as he sees fit. But his body of work is detailed in that post, it's obvious that he's taking direction from McD, and due to both the lack of a year over year perceptible plan offensively, from both a draft as well as tactical approach, coupled with the type of skill-position talent we now have on offense, it seems pretty clear that whatever comes out of that door come September, it's not going to be what we've had up to now, much less playing to Allen's strengths. Right? Here's another quasi conundrum. On one hand the false narrative is that our offense improved under Brady for to the changes that he made. But once the evidence is presented that demonstrates that false conclusion, then the same arguers will say that Brady really didn't make any significant changes as he has to work with Dorsey's offense generally speaking. LOL.

Great stuff there!! Thanks for taking the time! Completely agree, and Allen's the only player on our entire team that has routinely showed up come playoff time. So we can factor that on as well. I've always said that an offense can't be blamed if it put up yards, drives, and 36 points for example. To bring this around to the discussion point, now we're dumbing down and showing down the strength of our offense and trying to turn it into something that's never been a strength. It's frustrating watching these Allen prime years being friends away like this. Try and follow along with the context. 🙂

A 4th round pick for a short yardage back though?

I wouldn't disagree with your prognostication here. Cook also isn't used on 3rd-downs because he's not a classic 3-down RB, he's far from the guy that will get you the short, tough yards. He also wore down over the last fourth of the season with his average production and efficiency metrics dropping severely. His per-touch average was pathetic over his last five games and five of the nine under Brady. That's a chicken/egg thing though. This is the most curious and will be the most interesting season in McD's career to date. Moss had a far more notable collegiate career and production than Davis, so I'm curious about this. But perhaps most curious is that just last offseason McD said that he wanted to go to a faster, quicker offense, which they did with Cook. Now, what, they seem to be slowing it down again. Once again, the team seems to jump all over the place on offensive MO and there's almost no plan that's perceptible much less consistent. It's almost like on the offensive side it's been trial and error for seven seasons now.

Excellent possession receiver with outstanding hands who's good at finding soft spots in coverage.

Thanks for the civil discourse!! Interesting quote although it's obviously not surprising. I couldn't agree more on your first statement, in fact, you may have seen me post about how if he did that efficiently, then we'd be a record-breaking offense, and I mean not merely Bills, but NFL. I thought that we were headed there after our first few games last season. I do not agree on the better at it under Brady. From what I've seen and studied, which is relatively extensive, the entire reason why his metrics/stats got worse under Brady was entirely because he was put into that situation, which again, is not his forte. I believe he could get much better at it but I do not believe that he has the proper offensive coaching staff in place to get that out of him, particularly as it's guided by a defensive mindset. For example, here are his pre & post Brady metrics: Pre-Brady (Dorsey) 260 passing yards/game 70.3% compl. % 1.9 TDs/game 1.1 INTs/game 1.3 Sacks/game 96.6 Rating 7.4 YPA Hurried on 8.6% of attempts Hit on 8.0% of attempts 1st-Down% 33.7% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs) Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 8.4 Yards out ______________________________ Under Brady 244 passing yards/game 60.7% compl. % 1.4 TDs/game 1.0 INTs/game 1.6 Sacks/game 85.5 Rating 7.5 YPA Hurried on 9.2% of attempts Hit on 10.0% of attempts 1st-Down% 32.8% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs) Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 9.1 Yards out So if we analyze that data against the narrative that he improved under Brady, and that the passing game turned shorter, but that's obviously not the case. The depth of target alone tells us clearly that that's false. Also, if his game was truly shorter under Brady, it would be much closer to that high-percentage (aka short) passing game, which should also be indicative of getting the ball out much more quickly, but then why the additional increase on QB Hurries and Hits. As to efficiency metrics, Allen obviously got notably worse in Brady's system; down 10% in compl. %, 25% reduction in TD passes/game, and a large reduction in Rating of 11.1. In fact, let's assume that Allen's metrics in Brady's system held for an entire 17-game season, and since they are an average of Brady's 7 regular season games as such. Allen would finish with the following on the season with rankings by this past season in parentheses: 4,148 Yards (8th) 24 TDs (tied for 11th) 60.7% Compl. % (30th) 13th in 1st-Down % 85.5 Rating (23rd) Those numbers are only marginally better than his 2019 numbers of 20 TDs and 9 INTS (half), yet a mere 4 more TDs on an additional 1,000+ passing yards. 58.8% compl. %. His Rating the same as in 2019. People dismiss his average play with all kinds of narrative laden nonsense, but those are the numbers under Brady's system. Sure, he'll tweak it, but also sure, he'll also have McDefense breathing down his neck to stick to his complimentary football approach of running the ball and running the passing game who knows how, and now without a single player on the team that's proven to command double-coverage downfield, and with half of Allen's TD and yardage recipients now gone from the team, and remarkably with us replacing Davis with someone absurdly similar. Keep in mind how narratives form. They form by casual viewing and superficial results. i.e., we went 6-1 down the stretch and salvaged our playoffs, so Brady gets the credit despite the fact that we averaged a pathetic 19.5 PPG offensively in our last three games, and against horrible defenses for that matter, and needed ST/D TDs in two of those games to win them. Yet, it's attributed to Brady's being OC. etc. I'm in the process of breaking down Coleman's every pass attempt video, and parsing it into segments. But I've catalogued the data. A third (32%) of Coleman's caught passes were behind the line-of-scrimmage. A third. This doesn't dissuade, or shouldn't, any criticisms of Coleman whatsoever. Coleman caught passes at FSU last season only 9 times beyond 14 yards in-the-air, aka air-distance. He had 23 more uncaught beyond 14 yards, and from what is clearly shown in the video, I have 12 of those being balls that he should have caught. Anyway, I'm digressing here. More (video) breakdown on that to come. Either way, this narrative that Allen improved under Brady is simply false. Nor did the offense improve. There was obviously a McDefense-driven shift to running the ball more, but the passes clearly did not get shorter, and even if that were true there should have been a significant improvement in Allen's efficiency metrics, particularly his completion-% which dropped by a massive 10%, given that it would have been a high-percentage passing game. Diggs ran shorter routes, screens, short OTMs, a few backfield patterns, etc. They obviously didn't send him long very often, barely even medium depth. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy there that he lost a step, which feeds into my unspoken theory that they were attempting to drive him out, perhaps hoping that there would have been a more cap-friendly solution. That's another topic altogether. What Brady does to correct it remains to be seen, but does he have the authority and ability to push Allen back into his forte`? Agreeing with you, if Allen ever were to master that shorter high-percentage passing game, this offense would be unstoppable. But we were far from seeing that last season under Brady. But if they're trying to turn Allen into more of what Purdy, Burrow, Hurts, other QBs and even Mahomes does, then it's questionable as to whether or not they get the results that they want.

As long as it's not the outdoor experience of New Jersey. 😁

Sure, always welcome. I love doing that kind of stuff, I do it for fun. Brady was a master in the high-percentage passing game. Allen needs to focus on it, it doesn't come naturally for him. As to the creativity, we'll definitely need some with this caste.

If that's the case, what would be the harm in disclosing that. Bills fans understand the circumstances.

BTW, I just looked out of morbid curiosity. Cook's splits are that he averaged 5.3 ypc while leading, 3.7 while tied, 4.5 while trailing. FWIW In the last five games, keeping in mind that except for late in the Steelers playoff game we were never up comfortably enough to run the clock if we were even up at all, here are his carries in the 4th quarters of those games: Chargers: While leading, 5, 6, 5 yards While trailing, 3, 2, 4, 2, -3 NE: While leading only 2, 1, 0 Miami: While tied: 3, -2 Steelers (playoffs): While leading by a TD: 9, 3, 1 KC: While trailing by 3: -3, -4, 0, 1 So that theory doesn't really hold any water.

I've worked professionally all my life with stats. I'm pretty sure I know how they work. I've won plenty of recognition for my work as well, some of which is published. Thanks for the explanation though. LOL

One could surmise that the Buffalos were meant as a distraction to get people all whooped up so that they wouldn't ask anymore questions. Either way, this is the stadium project that everyone seems to agree has had the least depictions (renderings) of what the final product will look like of any.

Well, OK, of that's something more in your book than average passing, great, so be it. Similarly however, if three games out of 144 against dreadful Ds are what is required to prove that a QB is above average, isn't that the same thing. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Either way, let's chalk it up to different standards.

After some thought, that was actually the case prior to the last five games. He only had four 3rd-down carries all season. We were never up by any significant amount in any of the last five games. We lost one of those games and nearly lost the others with the D/STs bailing is out twice.

LOL You can see it now, parking lots with way more cars and hundreds of drones over the stadium as fans watch from the lots. Drones buzzing down to where the wire-cam is. It'd be fun to be in a light tower with a radio to shoot down drones with a high-velocity pellet gun upon request. Once it's finished, if we only had a dome we wouldn't have to worry about drones. Thanks! We'll all keep our drones in our pants. Unlike this guy ... https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/3vqdg7/bills_fans_get_it_on_in_the_parking_lot_while/

What's mind-boggling is why the secrecy. It can't really be because they think that sales will be brisker if they withhold that imagery. It's just weird.

No argument here. But again, we get into the why of it all. One argument is that they finally had a top defense (2nd ranked), but it didn't fold in the playoffs. They allowed 7, 24, 10, and 22 points, for an average of 16 PPG in the playoffs, and against teams ranked 2nd, 6th, 4th, and 3rd in scoring. Contrast that with our Ds over the past three seasons. 2021: We had the 1st ranked D and allowed 17 and 36 in regulation to the 6th ranked (NE) and 4th ranked offenses. 2022: We had the 2nd ranked D and allowed 24 (Skylar Thompson) and 27 points to the 11th and 7th ranked offenses. Keep in mind that Miami was nowhere near 11th with Thompson at the helm. In fact, of his three starts, his best game was vs. us, in Buffalo. Minnesota and their 28th ranked D held him to notably worse. 2023: We had the 4th ranked D and allowed 17 and 27 to the 28th and 15th ranked offenses. Also here, the Steelers (28th) were playing a backup QB. In 2021 the Chiefs only scored more points all season against the Raiders' 26th ranked D twice, the Eagles' 18th ranked D, and the Steelers' 20th ranked D. In 2022 the Fins only scored more points against the Texans' 27th ranked D, the Lions' 28th ranked D, the Bears' 32nd (DFL) ranked D, the Browns' 20th ranked D, and the Ravens' 3rd ranked D. The Bengals only scored more points vs. the 9th ranked Saints, the 13th ranked Bucs, the 23rd ranked Falcons, the 10th ranked Steelers, and the 19th ranked Panthers. In 2023 the Chiefs only scored more points against the 9th ranked Raiders' D, the 24th ranked Chargers' D, and the 20th ranked Bears' D. Whether or not that's impressive is apparently in the eyes of the beholder, but mathematically it's underachieving when weighing our defensive ranking contrasted with our defensive performances in contrast to all the teams ranked worse than us, which in 2020 were all 31 other teams, in 2021 were 30 teams, and 2022 were 28 teams.