PBF81

Luck was definitely a part of it on several planes. First, anytime that you're entirely reliant upon the unlikeliest of plays by a QB that's quite frankly very average on a good day, that alone has a huge luck component. Otherwise, I'm not sure that anyone arguing this understands how unlikely it is for a team that finished -57 in point differential, while losing to almost every good team that they played, to much less post a winning record much less make the playoffs on the merits of non-H2H tiebreakers. I'd easily wager good money that it doesn't happen again in at least a decade. It's not really a matter of playing hard. If that is the case, why did McD get less out of Taylor than Ryan did? Ryan wasn't a good coach here. There's a disconnect(s) in that reasoning somewhere. We didn't go anywhere, but again, the point is that the playoffs was our worst game from an offensive perspective, not only that season, but in how many games before or after that before Allen showed up? Going back before McD, the next closest time we scored a mere 3 points was in 2012. OK, so given the strength of our roster these days, featuring Allen and the #1 D, how do you evaluate our playoff performances under McD with Allen at QB? That's the topic that we're discussing. The regular season is pointless other than to make the playoffs, whereupon the real goal (should) start. Sure, some here have said that they're fine with losing as long as we have a team in Buffalo, but that's really not germane to the discussion either. Many expected more than 11 wins last season, or more than 11 in '21. This season is going to be very telling. We'll see how it unfolds, but it shouldn't be unexpected if by season's end there are more detractors than supporters, and after 8 seasons, for McD's MO. In the meantime, I guess all that we can do is to discuss it. What are the goalposts? Set the standard as you see and let's go from there. You pick it. ?? Otherwise, you jumped in on an exchange that was about McD v. Reid again. I put forth the data from each's first seven seasons. You ignored it and moved those goalposts. This obviously has nothing to do with that. So again, what are the goalposts? In your world. We'll go from there.

Well, OK, if you think that Aikman as a passer compares to Allen, not sure what to tell ya. Fair on Lewis, but it was Dalton that we're talking about and he "made the playoffs" often enough, which seems to be the standard here.

Not sure I'd stay in Miami proper, but check out Little Havana if you have time. That's always fun with good food.

He made the playoffs because of Dalton to Boyd. That's pretty obvious, isn't it? I mean when you have zero control over getting in ... He was dismantled in the playoffs by a former coach of ours that everyone knows wasn't any good, and who had Bortles at the helm. Under his guidance Taylor posted one of his worst few games as a Bill in the playoff game. Seems that that would be relevant. Meh, maybe not. LOL We were one of just a few teams in modern NFL history to have made the playoffs with a negative point-differential and easily the worst of those that did. We made the playoffs on a tiebreaker having absolutely nothing to do with head-to-head with two teams that also finished 9-7 but with point differentials of +92 and +83 to our -57. Those are differences of 149 and 140, or about 9 PPG. I believe that we have the distinction of having been the team with the worst point-differential ever to make the playoffs. Of our 9 wins, all but two were over anything but crappy teams with horrible records, essentially the worst teams in the league. The other two were over the 10-6 and 6th seeded Falcons and the 4th seeded 10-6 Chiefs with Alex Smith at QB. Those are all facts, I'm not quite sure how despite "having made the playoffs" they sound any good. Any former coach could have had the same luck, which is what it was, essentially pure luck, and done the same during the drought years. It's not often, never say never, but pretty close to never, that a team makes the playoffs with a point-differential of -57. I'm still trying to figure out how any growth is measured.

And Baltimore winning with Dilfer. The Raiders with Brad Johnson. The Cowboys repeatedly with Aikman, who was good but hardly great and far from Allen or not as good a passer as Kelly. The Skins with Williams, that brick-footed Rypien, or the midget Theismann, also good but far from great. Foles with the Eagles.

Thanks! But, OK, the points on the Houston game still stand. It was on the opposite end of being a coaching masterpiece. Insofar as that Jags playoff game goes, what, a coaching masterpiece there? That was one of Tyrod's all-time worst games as a starter here in Buffalo. Bottom three easily. That would seem to reinforce the point, not counter it. Right? Either way, someone floats an argument. It fails, they they move the goalposts. That fails. At what point after a wash/rinse/repeat exercise do those doing that finally at least admit that it's a possibility against all emotional fortitude in ignorance of the facts? Think about it. How seriously is anyone supposed to take the argument that McD is no different than Reid when McD in his first seven seasons is 5-6 in the playoffs, with four of those wins over wild-card teams, three featuring backup caliber QBs (Jones, Thompson, and Rudolph) and twice nearly losing otherwise, a fourth with a washed-up geriatric QB playing his last game ever, with our only quality playoff win over a team led by QB who as a rule chokes in the playoffs; ... while Reid in his first seven seasons with that underachieving McNabb as his QB went 7-5 with one trip to the Super Bowl, barely losing to Brady & the Pats, four straight trips to the NFC CG, and a 4-1 record in the Divisional round contrasted with McD's 1-3 record in the Divisional Round? Who's really supposed to consider that a valid argument? That's just plain gibberish and nonsense. People can make all of the excuses that they want to, but there's no positively arguing that they're even remotely comparable. McD's record against the Brady led Pats with Brady at the end of his career is 0-6 by an average score of 10-25 with a max offensive score of 17. Reid nearly beat them in the Super Bowl with Brady in his prime. If not for McNabb's 3 INTs they'd have won even.

LOL Boy, you're all over the place. Too bad that argument exclusively revolved around a comp to Reid. Not sure what any of the above has to do with the original statement comping McD to Reid in their first seven seasons each. Also, one correction, I'm pretty sure that it was Dalton to Boyd that dragged Tyrod Taylor to the playoffs. But let's assume the best, that season's playoff game by McD giving up a 22 points and nearly 200 4th Quarter yards after being up 16-0 with over 17 minutes to play, against a team with one noteworthy offensive skill position player was certainly a coaching masterpiece on the defensive side, wasn't it. LOL

Schottenheimer has a similar playoff record in his first seven seasons as well, 3-6 to McD's 4-5. With Kosar and DeBerg in those seasons. LaFleur is 3-4 in his five seasons as HC. ... with Rodgers and Love in his first season. But you're absolutely correct, that's the company he's in. Also, how many of those coaches featured #1, 2, or 4 Defenses regularly on top of that.

Yes, intellectually lazy if that's the extent of your research. Is it turtling, or simply being out-schemed and out-coached in the playoffs by peers that are notably better than he is, which raises the question as to how good he truly is apart from having Allen cover up a lot of the weak links. I realize that's just a term, but it seems that at that level, against the best, and where Allen's talent alone isn't enough to beat some schlep team or a good team on pure talent disparity, but only in the regular season, he's simply out-coached.

Not true. To start you said December, so let's keep it to that. (and January) Dec 2023: 1,092 Yards, 5 TDs, 5 INTs, 81.8 Rating Dec 2022: 1,100 Yards, 12 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.3 Rating Dec 2021: 1,336 Yards 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 80.0 Rating Dec 2020: 1,516 Yards, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, 117.5 Rating The average person would likely see a significant difference between last season's December games and those of the other three seasons. His average TDs/game alone is 2.5 times greater in the past three seasons. I suppose the definition of similar can be argued. This past season, the Dallas game was largely D and rushing that did the lifting there. His KC game was among his worst on the season and was easily his worst passing game ever against KC. His game vs. the Chargers was not good, particularly considering how terrible the Charger D was. His game against NE was his worst game on the season. His season-ender against Miami was also one of his worse games vs. Miami and he had some absolutely horrible throws in the red zone. Our Brady O scored only 14 points and needed that Harty PR-TD to win it.

Really? Shanahan's done notably better with Purdy and Garropalo. Lewis did better with Dalton. Joe Gibbs did phenominally with Rypien, Williams, and Theismann, none of which are even in the conversation with Allen. Johnson did incredibly better with Aikman. Harbaugh did notably better with Flacco. There are others. That is simply not true. You're implying that Reid was no better in the playoffs with McNabb than McD's been with Allen, which is ridiculously false. Just look up their playoff records and performances in each of their first 7 seasons. That's such an intellectually lazy defense.

LOL, it is a key difference. I made that change. I thought that was implied however since the context was playoff wins. Not our losses. But you implicitly raise a good point since the OP discussion is about McDefense's Growth/Expectations. Good coaches don't simply throw up a good game once in a while in the playoffs, the expectations, particularly with Allen, are to bring home the bacon. Who imagines that after 15 seasons of coaching, with Allen as a QB, that if we never even win an AFC CG, and finish that stretch with 8 or 9 wild-card round wins, while having played some good games in the playoffs close otherwise, would be considered acceptable in hindsight. We're at the midway point now with our crowning playoff achievement, amidst little else, being 13-Seconds. We're already looking at the 8th time's the charm now in the eyes now with a depleted team even. It's easy to envision the bawling over not having a bonafide #1 occurring pretty soon this season.

That sound great in defense, but did you actually look at the data as to whether or not that was actually true/factual? Take a look when you have a few, you'll find that it's the polar opposite of what you just said there in seasons 2020 - 2022.

This is going to be a pivotal season for him. The narratives on Brady contradict reality. The team's MO is changing completely. It's been a very ad hoc situation when we've been successful, and come playoff time that simply let Allen do what he does, but that's not really coaching. Now we're switching from whatever mishmash that it's been to a c. '90s ball-control power running game featuring a passing game that Allen's never mastered. Whether he masters that or not remains to be seen. Whether Brady's worsening play at the end of last season is more the steady state than the Jets & Dallas games remains to be seen. At the end of the our talent on offense is not better, even by subtraction as so many like to point out, and our MO is not what suits Allen's style, and our defense, which rarely shows up in the playoffs anyway, has changed notably. Whether that's a formula for improvement and continued success, we'll find out in a matter of months. Also, whether Allen continues to run the ball an average 9 times/game as he did under Brady, for what would be about 150 carries on the season, remains to be seen. Is Davis capable of running the ball like Allen does in his place, again, we'll find out. Lots of unknowns this season. Perfection is one thing. Not making blundering errors is not synonymous with lacking perfection. Just sayin'.

Funny how that expectation didn't arise until Allen hit stride. How quickly many forget how the heat was on McD prior to Allen's breaking out in 2020. In a win. I'll make the change. I don't consider losing taking it to anyone. And yeah, the 13-seconds game, but doesn't that support the playoff argument. I mean snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory should hardly be a feather in a coach's cap. LOL

He's going into his 8th season as head coach. How is that measured? Wins & Playoff performance? Nearly half of Allen's passing TDs and yardage are gone. It's easy to suggest that someone will replace that, it's another thing to do it. For years we were crying about a #1 WR, got Diggs, who according to everyone made a difference, now we're expected to believe that it doesn't matter again. LOL Brady's got a huge mystery meat component to him. Will that impact the teflon-coated McD if he fails to live up to the hype? It's pretty clear that we're moving in the direction of being a ball-control shorter passing team with a greater emphasis on running. Is that the formula that has made us successful to the extent that we've been successful under McD to date? The data to reach an obvious conclusion is readily available. BTW, 4 of those 5 playoff wins, apart from three having been against teams featuring backup caliber QBs, and two nearly having been lost to inferior teams, were against weaker wild-card teams. Not once in the playoffs in seven seasons have we taken it to a comparable or stronger team for a playoff win. One could argue Baltimore, but given the way that Jackson chokes come playoff time and who is the antithesis of Allen in the playoffs, that's an uphill argument.

Shouldn't the question be whether or not McD is getting more out of Allen than the other coaches would have? Why would a defensive-mind head coach with all but zero knowledge of offense possibly be in the running for such a distinction? The other question should be, how many games/season is Allen pretty much singlehandedly responsible for winning by himself without a great defensive performance or much other help from the running game, and in some seasons, mediocre OL play. Another perspective would be to ask how McD's Bills would be with Fitzpatrick, Orton, Manuel, Bledsoe, or Edwards. It's not really fair to suggest that he would suck with them but he's the reason for our success with Allen. I'd like to see what anyone with any kind of significant track record of successful offensive regimen would do with an O like this. We've never had anyone like that leading the O. Dorsey was OJT, so is Brady. Daboll's sucked, as in bottom-dwelling, without Allen everywhere else.

The same as what though? His TD and yardage difference in averages under Dorsey v. Brady were pronounced. People, not necessarily you, seem to be taking Allen's entire season numbers while ignoring the quite significant drop in passing production under Brady into any account whatsoever. That will be both the key to his as well as the team's season. If he succeeds to a significant extent it'll end up being a monumental development for him.

That part of your post is an interesting thing. That's actually true (6 last season, of 18), but is it actually Davis' fault? I know it's a mini-narrative. Davis wasn't well liked, but he will be missed from a performance perspective. Anyway, I looked at last season's INTs from Allen. The first two were thrown into double-coverage. The third (Cin) was sorely underthrown by Allen otherwise it's a good 25-yard gain. The fourth was a literal clothes-line into heavy coverage on 3rd-n-4. That play should have gone to Murray in the right flat, not sure he'd have gotten the first, but he was the only WR open. And if that's one of Brady's 3rd-n-4 plays, .... LOL & SMH. The fifth and sixth were @ Miami and both were off of Allen's back foot and absolutely atrocious passes. The first, if it's a good throw it's another TD to Davis. Point being that they weren't really Davis' fault except for maybe one, they were all on Allen and . If we want to blame Allen for "always looking deep first," fine, but that's not likely to change quickly. It certainly didn't under Brady's games last season. It's pretty difficult to envision anyone putting up Davis' deep numbers and TDs of who's on the roster Here's the video evidence; It's pretty simple, this short/high-percentage game simply isn't Allen's forte`. It's not. But that's what they were trying to force him to do under Brady. For a prediction this season, and it depends upon what the definition of "what kind of season," since many reduce it to Ws/Ls, but if we're talking passing metrics, I'll lean towards Allens' regular season production under Brady. If we take those stats and extrapolate them out for 17 games we get: 4,148 Yards 24 TDs 17 INTs 60.7% Compl. % 85.5 Rating The yardage, TD, INT, and Compl. % totals are fair given the circumstances. I'd bump up the rating slightly, maybe into the low 90s, but well into average range for QBs. Many are saying that his numbers will get better as Brady installs his game, but Allen's numbers last season under Brady were the best in his first two games under Brady where he had as many passing TDs in those two games as he did in the last five games. In the last five games Allen averaged 1 TD/game, 218 YPG, 1 INT/game, had an 81.8 rating, which is horrible, across the board. The offense is going to reflect McD's complimentary football definition. That much we know. Who knows, perhaps as was the case with Peterman McD throws in the towel to fan and media pressure and changes that. Unfortunately for anyone hoping for big passing numbers, that's not consistent with that philosophy argue as one may to the contrary. One thing that Allen has always struggled with in both college as well as the NFL is checking down and hitting his more open and/or higher-percentage typically shorter options. His metrics this season are going to be incredibly dependent upon his ability to improve there coupled with Brady's offensive game-planning/scheming. About the only sure thing is that it's not an odds-on prediction that Allen's metrics are among his best as his seasons have gone. Sure, it could happen, but it's not at all likely.

Goodrich's third string on the depth chart. Doesn't sound like he'll be with the Chiefs come fall.

And to think you can even go into any store and steal up to $1,000 with of good without any consequence too.

Wanya's not here! That's not how it works the these days. Trial by social media has begun. A guilty verdict has been rendered.

I haven't read a word of it, but if anyone that went to, as someone pointed out, a $250k college, then it's also pretty unlikely that they're disenfranchised. Besides, unless you know someone, then your speculating. If you do, then reference that person. Good to know that you have a handle on the world's morality. There's always another position as God open. Honestly, so many people have too much free time on their hands

I have terminal difficulty in believing that anyone there that day left there traumatized or with "emotional injuries" despite the "microaggression." If anyone did, what would that say for their preparedness for life. People are so ridiculously emotionally soft these days.

It won't be long before our new Slot 4 Offense is unleashed and revealed! Buckle up! 🧐