PBF81

I haven't seen you point out anything in the video to argue the point. All you do is argue what I say about the video. So how is that different from the criticism that you lay out? Either way, we've been through this you and I. You don't like to look at facts or evidence much less discuss them. It's all purely argumentative with your only basis seemingly being me and my takes without any specific factual counters. I don't see much point in continuing. I'll be happy to give you a thumbs up on your posts to me and leave it at that henceforth.

I'm sorry.

You didn't point them out. Which ones, specifically. One play at at time. Other than the few that I agreed with, which other ones do you consider to be "out of the ordinary?" Let's assess them together.

That runs counter to what even his draft profiles state. What's that dimension, specifically?

Where is Mr. Weisman's detailed analysis? I don't care about his profile, dig up his past draft profiles, reviews, and statements about how good players will be in the NFL, all of them from rounds 1 and 2, then let's talk. You also know zero about my background and all the those same types of positions that I've challenged in the past, publicly, and have been correct. Very often to the extent that a year or two later I'd gotten e-mail apologizing for the filth sent my way via e-mail expressing similar thoughts. I'm quite happy to stand on my positions. They're more accurate on the handful that I've actually done than the big name draft people easily. People do not understand the amount of time it takes to evaluate a player. As mentioned, I've spent the equivalent now, in one, two, and three hour segments, reviewing Coleman, very little of which I've posted here. To do that for several hundred players, even 50 or 100, is impossible within a few short months prior to the Draft. So most of the people putting up things simply regurgitate what others have said. After all, if Weisman is wrong, so what, "everyone was wrong," "everyone thought [blah blah blah]..." So few people digress with the mainstream or put their stuff out there for criticism. I don't mind. We'll see where this is this fall. But already McD admitting that Coleman isn't going to contribute much this season, ... LOL ... I mean really? Is that really what we need right now, a WR that isn't prepared to contribute this season? At some point people need to start seeing through this idiocy that's holding our team back from being much better than it is. Either way, I don't care. Just floating my analysis. But honestly, citing the guy as a scout, ... I got into it directly with a scout years ago and he ended up being entirely wrong also. It was an amicable exchange, but just because someone's a scout, look at all the busts and horrible picks, they're all a result of scouts' input. All. The funny thing is, if Coleman really isn't very good and his play does not translate to the NFL as I've suggested, no one here is going to point out that I was correct, but more importantly for the reasons stated. They'll simply say what everyone else does, that everyone was wrong and thought [blah blah blah], and we'll wash, rinse, repeat the exercise next year. Either way, dig up the guy's past stuff and let's evaluate how accurate he's been for round 1/2 picks. I already know what it's going to be. Then shut the forum down. LOL I'm not merely talking. I provide data and substance for my views. Most of what gets posted here is superficial and emotional and narrative based stuff, just like everywhere on just about every topic in the world. The majority of the substance posted here, or anywhere for that matter, is what others say, but often offer little substance for or superficial substance. That's exactly the case with Coleman. Even Gunner has expressed concerns over Coleman. No one has to read it. For the handful of people that engage with any substance it's fun. What isn't fun is debating facts v. opinions. Right?

Correct! I'd say that the majority forum sentiment is that he's a surefire improvement, to date at least. This is critically important. Daboll and McD clearly weren't on the same page either. There were known blatant issues between the two. Then it also occurs with Dorsey. Now Brady, someone that's easier to control, obviously, based upon how Brady ran things once he took over, is in charge. There's a common theme there, one that many are loath to admit. This is a rhetorical question, but at what point is that common theme on the chopping block. Thanks again for engaging!!

And interestingly, many here were higher on Foster than they are on Coleman. Knox has averaged about 400 yards and 5 TDs/season here, hardly prolific. Even more people said the same about QBs like Young, Leaf, Shuler, Russell, Bradford, Couch, and WRs like Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, Jaelen Reager and many more. So what. Narratives are a dime a dozen in our society. Oh, well that settles it. LOL "They" said the same about Spiller and Watkins, even more, did they not? And if the stocks you and I had picked back in the '90s had worked out like Microsoft did, we'd each have our own island somewhere. I'm talking about him as if the narrative doesn't match reality. It doesn't. Just about everything you've floated is mass opinion. Nothing but narrative. Here's an exercise for you, can you think of any times that the narratives for draftees didn't quite pan out? What's the more likely scenario season to season, that every 1st round draft pick works out? Because just about every team is saying the same things right now. Just like we said about Watkins, Spiller, Oliver, Elam, Rousseau, Ford, AJE, Lawson, Ragland (he was HUGE, what a gem in round 2, LOL), Darby, etc., etc. I can't look the other way on our picks simply because I'm a fan.

Acceptance. That's the 5th and final stage of the Five Stages of Grief.

Agree, of course it does. Thanks on Josh, but he played worse under Brady, which few seem to acknowledge. At least metrically. As to Brady's time in Carolina, here's the thing, posting horrific stats with less than stellar talent in no ways suggests, or even approaches suggesting, that with good talent, he'll be good much less great. Bridgewater wasn't terrible, he simply wasn't much better than average on a good day. Darnold was destined to be awful before he was ever drafted. Never saw the interest in him. If Brady were any good there, it's hardly a reach to expect him to take an offense with Bridgewater, DJ Moore, Robbie Chosen who posted his best season ever that year, and Samuel, whom many claim will be a difference-maker here, to something other than the 24th ranked offense there. 24th, ... to add some perspective there, Chicago was 23rd with Foles and Trubisky starting in Chicago, and Washington with three different starting QBs that season, none of which are considered to be anything but backup caliber, was 25th. It only gets worse from there. Well, who knows what the Beane plan was, or is for that matter. Those guys rarely come clean, and we're always signing players saying one thing but then doing another. Consider, we just unloaded Singletary, who did what they're expecting Davis, a 4th round rookie with fewer collegiate accolades, to now do, after jettisoning Singletary while saying that they were going with Cook & speed. Now it's different again. And to rehash, we traded for Hines, who's one of the most prolific pass-catching RBs in the league right now, and was, stating how he'd really bolster our passing game, and threw passes to him at a rate of a fourth of his career average. We also had our entire OL perfectly healthy all season. I wouldn't bet a plug nickel that that happens again. Right now our issue is going to be talent, and scheming to get the most of it. It all starts with Allen. So we'll see.

Thanks! OK, so we start with the LSU game, which was a great game for him overall and from a statistical perspective. It was also 20% of his season's production more or less in terms of TDs, yards, and catches. 0:08 separation at release (poor throw) Agree on the poor throw. As to the route, it's a pretty standard route that just about every WR in the NFL can execute with a properly thrown pass. What I looked for while watching that video, are traits that will distinguish him in the NFL, not what may distinguish him at the collegiate level. 0:16 Run after catch Agree, and I'll add, a beautiful YAC on a beautifully thrown ball. That's one of the few plays that I had as having been noteworthy. 3:04 separation at release (poor throw) I have this as a drop. The ball was right between his hands against two DBs smaller that he is. But here's the thing, all we've heard is about how great he is on "contested catches," well, that was one and it wasn't impressive. One could excuse it, but that's not being impressive. The opponent is Southern Miss which boasted the 128th (out of 133) ranked D. The DBs were a red-shirt sophomore that has hardly played, and a red-shirt junior that has 1 INT in 23 games played. Happy to discuss. 4:38 run after catch Agree, one of his best few plays. Same defenders however, and a whole lot of green after the DB with hardly any experience whiffs on the tackle. Great hurdle. It's not going to be nearly that easy here. 5:40 created separation at stem (drop) We'll disagree a little here. You say separation, but had he caught it, it would have been what, a 7, 8 yard gain, the DBs dropped back and only made slight contact a yard or two from where would have caught it, so not quite sure that "separation" applies here. Otherwise, the DB on him was Andrew Mukuba, a third year Jr. that has 1 INT, 1 Sack, and 16 PDs in 35 games played. 6:02 separation again here, tough to call this separation. It was botched coverage to start, same DB, and it was also a broken play as you can hear the announcer, uncovered he simply came back. Good play, but nothing other than routine. 6:15 heads up uncover Pure botched coverage. Look again. Absolutely no one on him at any point during that play after Mickens completely whiffs while going into the backfield. Otherwise, a very routine 7-yard TD pass. Credit play-design on that one. 7:04 turned safety around (poor throw) Yeah, that's a non-play. Good coverage by the DB, a S it appears to be. Again, we're looking for reasons to get excited though, not excuses as to why he didn't do more. 7:40 game winner contested A phenominal play. Again, one of the few notable ones. 9:20 one handed contested Agreed, another phenominal catch. I think we've gotten the three notable ones now. At 4:38, this one, and the one prior. 10:53 separation I have to question separation here. It was clearly a juke of some sort where he lost the CB, Isaiah Johnson on Syracuse. It's not a play that he's likely to make in the NFL. Johnson went undrafted as a Sr. and NFL.com has him projected as a bottom of roster or practice squad type. So to any extent that he did "separate," that's whom it was against. NFL.com says this about Johnson in his draft profile; a fundamental lack of coverage fluidity and deep speed will be hard to cover up as a pro. In short, he's far from NFL caliber competition. 12:30 run after catch Again, Syracuse, and a classic bubble screen. Up 27-3 in the 4th, this is far more a simply clinic on poor tackling than it is for Coleman on what, a 12-yard gain. This isn't the type of play that's going to work well for him in the NFL given his lack of speed. 12:40 cooks zone coverage Not seeing that here against Duke. Wrong time stamp perhaps? 13:15 cooks zone coverage Again, more blown coverage, the announcer points that out how Al Blades, the DB tasked with covering Coleman, does not cover him. Good route, good catch, but nothing spectacular, a routine route & catch in the NFL every weekend. BTW, Blades, that CB/DB, was 6 years in the NCAAs, managed a mere 4 INTs (none in the past three seasons) and 24 PDs in 56 NCAA games played. He went undrafted and was picked up by the Jets as an Undrafted FA. He doesn't even have a draft profile at NFL.com or PFF. 13:45 contested catch A good catch going down on a clothesline pass into heavy coverage by Travis. 14:50 yards after catch YAC are notable when they're in traffic. After Carson whiffs on Coleman at the LoS however, it's pretty much all but green to the EZ. Any JAG WR in the NFL makes that play after the catch. 15:17 one handed contested TD That was a very good catch. I'm not sure what they mean by contested, but not sure that's it. Either way, for the few of those, there are three or four in the video where he doesn't catch it. 18:10 And the foul TD A little bit of a pushoff on his end as well. Very good catch big WR v. a freshman CB. That seems like a pretty standard catch though, nothing that's going to separate him in the NFL. It depends a lot more on the QB than the WR. 18:42 separation at release (wrong shoulder throw) Not sure how you see any separation at release, it's not in the video. It appears that he shakes him at the last minute, but having been a non-catch on an overthrow, not sure how this says much one way or the other. 21:08 separation and run after catch I'm not sure how you define separation. Separation is being able to separate from a dedicated defender. He did not do that on this play or some of the others you cite separation on. He found (finds) a soft spot in a zone. He makes the catch 9 yards from the LoS after hooking back, then turns and runs. Not one defender is in the area to make a play, again, in a what's obviously a zone. They close the gap and make the tackle. But separation it is not. Happy to discuss further if you like. But I count (I think) four catches of any gravity/magnitude here and anything that should be considered anything but routine. That's it. The rest of the video is largely unimpressive stuff, which includes many similar situations in which he fails to deliver.

OK, so? Maybe not draft players that are so young so that they don't take two or three seasons to develop. Right? I mean what, is the insistence that we didn't draft him for this season? Next season? So what. That's a McBeane thing.

Yes, I am. My sensibilities do not allow me to envision Coleman as doing much beyond #3 production in the NFL. It wasn't a preexisting bias I came into the analysis with. I've now spent about 20 (or more) hours reviewing his play, cataloging each and every pass attempt/target/reception into a database, and have analyzed that extensively. I came that determination while doing that. BTW, did you realize that a third of his receptions were caught behind the Line of Scrimmage? But I'll tell you what, I'll make the very same offer that I've made with several people here, that only one person has taken me up on yet, and as a result expressed equal concerns. Watch this video of his every pass last season at FSU, and do several things: Provide the time stamp of every play that makes you see something beyond incredibly ordinary in him; Provide any video evidence that suggests that he'll be more than just another WR incapable of being a #1 or #2 as this forum seems to define it; Explain why you believe that he'll be better than Davis; Lastly, explain why his style of plays lends itself to any particular success in the NFL. We all know the narratives, particularly in Bills Land, but the reality is somewhat different, particularly on his "contested catches" schtick, which PFF points out in an excellently written piece, here's the link; https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect Here's the link to the video, let me know if you're game, I'd love to go through it with you. This time of year there's not much else to do. LOL We've had quite a few WRs come through here whose production here during Josh's time was less than it was elsewhere. In fact, every season people say the same thing. Last season it was Harty and Sherfield, how'd that work out? Watch that video and say whether or not you think Josh being his QB is going to make a pronounced difference. As well, I'd be ecstatic to go thru it with you here game by game if you like. Again, it's the boring time of the year.

Look, there are exceptions both ways. If you want to believe that he's on the positive side of that, great. Time will tell though, not popular belief or consensus. Take a look at the WRs picked last year in the first two rounds. It's a mixed bag. Quentin Johnston and Johnathan Mingo are the two that are most like Coleman and neither impressed in any way, shape, or form. As stated, there are many people and sites that have noted that however. Well, OK, that's all fine and dandy, but it still doesn't translate to production nor render the fact that he lacked high-end production false. Again, talk is cheap. And who really likes hearing that he won't be doing much early in the season? As our first overall pick, even at the top of the 2nd, and given our sore lack of and dire need for WRs, that really shouldn't sit well with any Bills fan. Also, in light of that, how long are we supposed to wait for production? What, two, three seasons? ... until he's up for a new contract? Just asking the tough questions here.

If he's such a "stone-cold killer on the football field," then why the lack of high-end production. Talk is cheap this time of year. Let's hope it translates to the field. A lot of people have their doubts.

An unsurprising demise for someone that thought they were bigger than the sport itself. Who knows, our society has such an appetite for dysfunctional drama though that maybe he'll get his own reality show now. Someone with a life perspective attitude like his that's broke, what could possibly go wrong. He's fortunate that he's not already in prison, that could change very quickly.

Definitely interesting, lots of space for discussion there. The point however was in relation to Davis implicitly being responsible for those when he wasn't for the most part, rather they were either bad throws and/or poor choices for throws. Allen liked Davis which is why his TD% was so high. It's also interesting that most were on the deep offensive side of the field.

See ya!

LOL, of course it does. But it was pretty conservative at the end of last season, starting on Brady's watch. More conservative than it's been since Allen broke out. That's either one humongous coincidence or something closer to this season's reality. His offenses in Carolina were ranked 24th and 29th in Scoring and 21st and 30th in Yardage. To the original point. We can say he's not mystery meat, but he's hardly Ben Johnson either. We'll find out. Of course Cook got too many touches, but it was known when we drafted him that he was unlikely to be able to handle that workload. His collegiate max was 140, he had twice that last season, but that's about where his play began to diminish. But they continued to pound him even though his yards-per-carry average fell off by nearly 30%. So where are we placing responsibility for that miscue? McD? Beane? ?? Who was the genius that couldn't conceive that when many of us warned about it upon drafting him and some people even had it in their draft profiles? It wasn't exactly expert analysis to piece that one together. What's in Davis' dossier that suggests he's capable of playing to at least an average level in the NFL as such? Nothing in his draft profiles, so what? Moss and Sing both had greater draft profile potentials. It seems that this is where they're going. So riddle me this, since when has this been in Allen's repertoire? College or pro. The short correct answer is that it never has been. In the short-medium game, Allen's average at best and not equal to his peers. So once again, if that's true, that's why A, many are concerned, but more relevantly to the discussion, many question the use of Allen. Perhaps more importantly, how is that going to help open up the running lanes for Allen? Is it a real reach to consider that if we're running an offense like that, his lanes may be more crowded? This is common sense stuff, right? What did they say when the drafted him? What, that he'd be great in the short-medium screen game? Hardly. ALL the talk was about his strong arm and how he could make every throw even while on the move. Does that seem like the approach that they're taking? We also brought in Hines, one of the most prolific pass-catching RBs in NFL history, and you see how we used him in that regard after talking a great game in trading for him. Nada. They didn't use him at all. Singletary had better credentials in the receiving game and we just threw him overboard. Can we expect similar genius this season? It might be wise to pump the brakes emotionally in this way. Our team has a strong history under McBeane of saying one thing and doing another, quite often the polar opposite. We don't know exactly, but we have some clues. We'll see. But we can't have it both ways, that the reason for the drop in production at the end of last season, the last 30% of the season, was because Brady was still using Dorsey's offense, while on the other hand all the reason for our wins had to do with Brady's offense. Surely you can see the illogic there. Thanks, and yeah, that'd be fun. Let me know. Just note the time stamps and we can discuss further.

We all hope we're wrong. Who isn't hoping to finally win the Big one!! Contrary to the assertions of some. That's not what the forum is for however, to all agree and cheerlead. It's for discussion. You're getting warmer.

LOL Really? SMH ... why do you even bother.

Well, the thing about simply "making the playoffs" is that any number of circumstances can play into it. Think about all of the crappy teams over the years in siht divisions that made it for reasons of divisional attrition. Teams with losing records have even made it a few times, and when notably better teams, just not aligned fortunately for them, were in the league. That was the case with us in 2017. We edged out both the Ravens and Chargers, who were both fundamentally better football teams than we were that season, to the tune of 9 PPG game better in point-differential. That's huge! Suppose Rodgers goes down again. Or Tua. or for that matter Tua and Allen if you're the Jets, and Rodgers turns a pretty average season. They could easily make it at 10-7 or 11-6 because our QBs go down. NE had a divisional cakewalk throughout Brady's tenure. We've had a relative divisional cakewalk since Brady's leaving NE. As well, if four of the opponents on your schedule see their starting QBs or premier DEs, etc. go down, then that can impact standings as well. When we played the Chargers but barely beat them, they were without Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Bosa. They were hot garbage after that, but it was one of our wins Doesn't matter whether or not "we can control who we play," that's hardly earning a win. Again, we barely beat a team led by Stick, no one of consequence at WR, and a 24th ranked D. As merely one example. Anyway, making the playoffs is overrated, especially with nearly half the teams in the league making them, ... unless you're coming off of a 20-year drought era. LOL It's what you do when you get to the playoffs that matters. Having said that, there's zero excuse for a team led by Allen to even miss the playoffs.

As do I and lots of others. Here's the thing, McDefense has an MO, which has changed since he's been here, several times now, and never lasting more than a couple of seasons, and despite not always fully articulating it, which in and of itself is bizarre. He let's Allen play to his strengths in the playoffs, but Allen then has to overcome his coach, which is too much, particularly if Allen's not in Superman mode. We also all know that at some point Allen simply says F-it in games and takes the game into his own hands. That's not coaching however. That's Allen taking over. This complimentary football approach is anything but letting Allen play to his strengths, it's the opposite. So going into this season anyway, Allen won't be playing to his strengths. We also get into the roster-building aspect of it as well. Look at our roster, it's not built to cater to Allen's strengths. That even assumes that Coleman's even 80% of what people think he is. So between the two, why on earth would Allen be at his best this season. There is no known reason other than blind hope.

Thank you. It may be too early to come to a final decision, but is it too early to start connecting some dots. This obsession with "complimentary football" is worrysome and seems misplaced given that we have Allen. The point behind it all is that Brady has zero experience in the role. The odds are even greater that he's not that good than, that he is that good. Allen will make him look better than he would otherwise as he has with everyone in the role. Allen would make any OC look better than they are. But a good OC would be able to get him to play to his ceiling, not to his average or worse. Having said what you said, it's at least equally remiss to insist that Brady's the solution, again, given that this was not the case under him at the end of the season. Sure, worst case for Brady was that it was Dorsey's offense, but Brady was an integral part of it, shouldn't he have been able to make more out of it than Dorsey if he's truly the better option? Everyone said, in creating the narrative, that Brady was better in terms of getting production (from both Allen and the O) than Dorsey was. But that's been proven mathematically and factually false. So now for that narrative to be true, other supporting evidence needs to come into play. Why the plummeting of Allen's metrics towards career worst then? It makes no sense if that's the case. Again, all we are left with between now and then is to discuss it. That's an unjustifiably optimistic expectation. It would mimic Allen's best season ever, but with a game that's focused on the running game and shorter high-percentage passing game, under which Allen's efficiency metrics are his worst. It doesn't make much sense that he'll rival his career yardage and TD production with an increased emphasis on running the ball and a shorter passing game generally speaking. Right? BTW, still happy to discuss Coleman. If you go thru that video again, just note the timestamps of the great catches that he made. We can discuss further thereupon.

Wouldn't it be better though to have a good OC for a couple of seasons than never? Isn't it suspicious that the only time that Daboll's ever been good as an OC in the NFL is after Allen came into his own? Is it pure coincidence that in his other 7 seasons he's been bottom dwelling on offense as either an OC or HC? It's hardly unreasonable to ask whether Allen made him or whether he made Allen. But since Allen's had immense success without Daboll but Daboll's had no particular success apart from Allen, that's a pretty good clue. Neither Dorsey nor Brady have done anything exceptional yet. Despite Allen's tempering his metrics are on a down trend from 2020. What seems to be an issue is that McD was hired before Allen was drafted. Would Pegula have chosen McDefense had Allen predated McD? Last season there was talk amongst fans and media as to whether McD was the right man for the job, regardless of our independent discussions here. He knows this. Knowing what we know about McD, what is there to suggest that he'd go out and get a ringer of an OC when he knows that there are murmurings as to whether or not he's right for the job? In his mind he may be unwilling to hire his potential replacement. Keeping a guy like Brady (or formerly Dorsey) around, both of whom owed him for the opportunity, is a much safer move. They'll do what he wants, not what they want. We don't know for sure, but that's what the speculation was about McD v. Daboll. Either way, not getting a good or great OC because he may leave is not a good strategy if it's in favor of the pure unknown. We'll see, but there's a good chance that much of this comes out into the open this season. The over reliance on Coleman and Davis for our offense to work this season is palpable and unwise.