PBF81

I think it was a ManBro or something. George's dad was involved. LOL

Agree The two DBs on that play, one went undrafted and will likely never play in the NFL. The other was a sophomore S with almost no playing experience. The ball was right smack in Coleman's hands. I wouldn't call it a drop, but I would definitely call it a contested catch opp just like PFF did, and given all that we've heard about Coleman, it was uninspiring. Note that Coleman also didn't have to stop short and jump-ball it, he could easily have taken another step or two and been pretty close to catching that ball in stride. Watch it again in slo-mo. Either way, the two defenders were nothing defenders, the coverage will be much tougher in the NFL. Another bubble-screen as you point out. Those plays simply aren't going to amount to much here. Well defended pass. Coleman wasn't particularly open. Remember, we're looking for plays that are inspiring here. That wasn't one. This is a 3rd-and-14 play with a deep zone. His defender, that inexperienced soph S again, was 19 yards beyond the LoS on a 3/14 when the ball was thrown. LOL The other defenders were deep too with the other three receivers that couldn't get open. He completely whiffs on the tackle. And lol, watch the next guy, that same undrafted CB, watch him try to make the tackle. LOL, it's no wonder he has zero chance in the NFL. It was an OK play by Coleman, and sure, YAC, but that's simply not going to happen here in the NFL. BTW, one thing that I noticed while watching the entire video, Coleman's rarely if ever doubled. Agree, easy TD, Good play, but entirely courtesy of a defensive lapse however. How often does anyone see Coleman slipping open like that in the NFL? It'll be rare to be sure. Easy win over a Sun Belt Conf team that has zero defenders in the NFL in any significant capacity. I also don't think any offensive players either. We drafted Shawn Nelson (TE) from there about 15 years ago. I see absolutely nothing special from Coleman in this game given the talent lining up opposite him. BC next. This should be interesting.

Well that's the thing, it wasn't really a tight space, there's no one within many yards in any direction even partially positioned to make a tackle. Alexander was also out of position, which we can credit to him, not Coleman. There's a reason why LSU's pass D was in the bottom quartile. Keep in mind however, the coverage now will be much better. OK, so let's roll with your take here. As to the QB read, again, keep in mind that Coleman will first have to shake the coverage, which is one of his weaknesses. After that, given coverage, we get into the "contested catches" thing, and as we go down thru the games we'll see some more regarding those.

It will be fun. Agree with most of that. FSU had the 77th ranked rushing team last season, and their RB, Trey Benson, drafted in the early 3rd and now on Arizona, had 156 carries for 906 yards. So it's not as if Coleman's production should have suffered from that. Also, here are the two draft profiles for the pair per nfl.com, there's quite a bit of overlap and their metrics are nearly identical. Some shared weaknesses. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/gabriel-davis/32004441-5632-9675-38f5-3e009da4e98e https://www.nfl.com/prospects/keon-coleman/3200434f-4c29-5571-54fa-77236b775ae1 And you're right, Brady seems to like the screens, but that's a huge reason why Allen's production suffered. We've discussed a lot of that already, but again, that's what McD wants. Don't think for two seconds that Brady's driving that rig by himself without instructions from dispatch.

Great to hear. The obvious conclusion then is that there will be no excuses if our offense underachieves with Allen at the helm.

@BarleyNY Jay Gruden w/ Charlie Brown's head. LOL

@BarleyNY LOL, and if this ain't the truth ...

ROFLMAO ... my eyes are tearing! LOL Sapp & Washington ... BWAHAHA Malarkey: "Drew?" Bledsoe: "AHHH!" Malarkey: "Right." LOL Bledsoe's arms down to his knees. LOL Les Mess, Harry Sphincter, Bill Spleen. I forget the other names. I'm dyin' from laughter here. McD's favorite QB. Best not to bring that up. LOL

OK, so let's start with LSU then. LSU's defense was below average ranking 82nd of 133 in PA, and 101st in Pass Efficiency Defense. Coleman had 11 passes thrown his way, caught 9. Add in your take after mine. I annotated the bad passes but didn't discuss them for the most part. 1 ... Short left, bad pass 2 ... Looks like he ran a decent route, but a fairly routine one for the NFL. Bad pass 3 ... This is a great play but again, a fairly routine one by NFL standards and against a zone D on a poor pass D team, and as pointed out before. The only player that had a shot at tackling him was Zy Alexander, noted for his poor tackling, and who was also wasn't exactly in position to even tackle coleman in a massive size mismatch in that zone as well. Again, I put this down as a great play, not necessarily as something that Coleman will repeat in the NFL. Great pass by Travis, whom Coleman claimed was the best QB in the Draft BTW (also concerning, LOL) in a zone, but after Alexander whiffs, it's nothing but green, with an unneeded blocker, to the EZ. 4 ... Terrible play, terrible throw. Nothing to see here. Another screen attempt however. 5 ... A 5-yard rolling out. Routine at best. 6 ... A bumbling and failed bubble-screen attempt on 1st-and-10. If they use him like that in the NFL, ... LOL 7 ... A quite catchable drop just across the 1st-down line on 1/15. Unimpressive 8 ... Great contested grab 1-on-1. Impressive play 9 ... 5 yard bubble-screen for a gain of 5. Nothing at all impressive there. 10 ... This is one of his few notable man-on-man plays. No separation here, but a good contested catch downfield on a size mismatch. 11 ... Another failed bubble-screen on 2/3 for 0 gain. We can credit the crap play-call for it, but that's what he ran quite often. 12 ... Backfield crossing route on a play that typically won't work in the NFL. Nothing particularly special there otherwise, particularly for a large WR like him. 13 ... Great grab in the corner EZ for the TD. Perfect throw it should be added. This was his best game easily and the first of the season, and the one that everyone defers to for purposes of substantiating how good he is. After that game he posted 41 catches for 536 yards, for an average in the remaining 11 games of 3.7 catches for 48 YPG. I count three notable plays in this game that were attributable to individual skill. (8, 10, and 13) But again, I also discount it slightly given that LSU had a garbage pass D, which ranked 121st of 133 in passing yards allowed and 105th in Opponent Passing Rating allowed.

Cool, and let's just skip the plays where the ball was way out of the ballpark and he had zero chance of catching it. I know that the majority here loved to blame Davis for those, but in fairness it's not the receiver's fault. ... unless it was a blatantly wrong route or cut or something like that. I don't recall a lot if any of those re: Coleman. Splash plays are good, but out of the ordinary ones is what we're looking for, not ones that JAG WRs can make under the same circumstances. That's what's nice about Youtube, people do the work for you so that all you have to do is review. Years ago you could write to the school and they'd give you side/EZ views of every player on O or D, for free, all you'd have to do is ask, ... and tell 'em you're doing a draft review for publishing. LOL I'm not sure what happens if you simply ask. But now so much is on YT. And yes, your own eyes. That was originally my challenge, for people to watch all his plays and see whether or not it passes the sniff test contrasted with the narrative(s), particularly those narratives here, which always seem to grow once we draft a player. LOL It did. I didn't know much about Coleman before the Draft. I also didn't know much about any of the WRs. Sure, I'd perused a few dozen draft profiles, and in the case of any of the half-dozen or so WRs that I thought would be available for us, also looked at their stats (in light of opponents) and game logs, etc. (i.e. not MHJ, LOL) Unlike everyone else, I don't claim to be knowledgeable in depth about the top-100 +/- players in the Draft. LOL I do the research in much depth after the Draft. Much easier to do in-depth research on three or four players than the time-involved impossibility of doing it for the top third of the draft. LOL But the narrative was about what a beast he was in contested catches despite not being a burner, which IMO is what we needed, and not just a 200 yard/season burner, but one that would be capable, next season if not this one, of putting up 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs. Either way, few claim that he's a #1 with that potential, even here. But as I watched that video, it struck me all the passes in traffic that he dropped or otherwise couldn't catch. PFF wrote that piece that I posted above with his "contested catch" numbers compared to other WRs that are not noted for "contested catches," and he ranked poorly against them. So my first question was, why the hype if his metrics are subpar. That's when I decided to look for myself, at every play, and database it all. When I have time, I'm going to make a breakdown video of them all in varying groupings. I'll probably create a Youtube channel to put 'em on since they'll be too big to post directly. But the cats of contested catches, great catches, bubble-screen/screen plays, etc. Don't even include the uncatchable ones. In fairness we can dismiss those as being irrelevant. How about if we focus on Catch, Drop, and Contested? Essentially, let's in essence look for plays that will work in the NFL against NFL caliber competition, plays that he'll contribute something on. On a side note, I did count, of his 50 catches, 16, a third, were caught behind the LoS, which is also concerning. That leaves 34 catches all season, with 11 of 'em having been made against LSU and Syracuse, that were "downfield," leaving precious few on a per-game basis for the other 10 games on average. 2.3/game that is. My general assessment is that we have a very Gabe Davis type WR without the ability that Davis had to go deep. Davis too was a good contested catch WR. He also had a notably better senior season on the opposite end of the scale as Coleman. Both played 12 games. Davis had 7 games of 98+ yards, 10 of 68+, 5 of 106+, and 3 of 151+. Coleman had 2 games of more than 86, 9 games of 66 or fewer. Davis also had nearly twice the yards. Both were the #1 WRs on their teams. I suspect, without evidence, that McBeane were trying to replace Davis, whom despite fans not liking the guy, Allen and they seem to have loved. Two things I'll add, first, his games against LSU, whose Defense was below-average and whose passing Defense was even worse, Syracuse, whose passing Defense was below-average, and to a lesser extent Clemson, which had a good defense, carry his profile. After that though, it's difficult to find a game that should be considered great or even close. So essentially we drafted a WR with 9 unimpressive games, and 2 impressive ones and one more leaning impressive. The second thing, it's always concerning when the personality of a player runs away with the narrative without the on-field production to back it up, in this case as a completely untested rookie. Last season it was Sherfield in a notably lesser context. People, understandably to a limited extent, elevate expectations based upon a player's soft traits and characteristics. So anyway, in the following post I'll run through his LSU passes in detail and we'll go from there. Thanks again!!

LOL, they were all hilarious. The one with Madden losing his head over Favre. 😭

Those Bang Cartoons were the best. Do you remember the one about Bledsoe? LMAO

Doesn't alter the fact that talk is cheap though.

We'll see, but he was drafted by the Bears, that's not a good harbinger. Reminds me of this cartoon from years ago;

LOL, McDermott's been talking about a lot of stuff for 7 seasons so far. It's time for something to materialize, whatever it is, in something more than regular season fashion. He now has someone, another person, running half the team, that's both light on NFL experience and with the incredibly limited experience he has, it has not been good any excuses aside. One way or another, it's going to be an interesting season.

There was a big hubbub a decade or so ago, I recall reading a piece about how once tickets for an event go on sale "publicly," other companies that were owned by Ticketmaster as subsidiaries, bought the tix en masse, particularly all the front rows and top seats for concerts and the like, in a matter of a few minutes electronically, and then put them up for resale with all the fees etc. Don't know whether they ever did anything about it, but recall reading about it.

LOL, they've become the scalpers. All nice and "legal" too.

Thanks! I'm a little confused however, it's not all clear. For example, what does this mean? Also, it just hit me, when I began this, it was never my intention to get into whether or not Coleman can separate, which appears to be the meat-n-potatoes of the contentions of many here to my having pointed that out. It's clear that we all have different definitions of separation. Mine is exactly what everyone complained about re: Diggs, whether accurate or not, and is the classic definition of being able to separate from a cover DB/CB on a man on man route. What it isn't is an ability to find soft spots in coverage, which Beasley was great at. I'll also defer to just about every draft profile out there including these three from nfl.com, cbssports.com, and pff; PFF the lack of agility in his game limits his route tree and ability to separate from defensive backs. Those who love those alpha-type receivers will be big fans, but his inability to consistently separate means he won't be for everyone. A post-draft piece by some Trevor Sikkema on PFF has this in it; His evaluation is a test of how much scouts prefer contested-catch receivers to athletic separators. NFL.com, which pencils him in as an average starter eventually, otherwise, from his Weaknesses there; Press coverage can blanket his release and catch a ride. Below-average acceleration getting out of breaks and cuts. Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches. Needs to play through downfield corners to secure catch space. Then there's this piece on CBSSports which says this; https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-draft-buyer-beware-on-bo-nix-keon-coleman-and-these-other-top-prospects/ And while Coleman doesn't look 4.61 slow on film, he's nowhere near burner territory. As a separator at any level, the Michigan State turned Florida State product struggles. Against man coverage, zone -- didn't matter. Then there's his play in traffic, where he's supposed to thrive at over 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds. In 2023, he came down with the catch on 10 of his 33 contested-catch scenarios. Not ideal. Far from. Also, if you haven't read it, this piece at PFF is also excellent; https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect Either way, the only group of people that I know that claim that Coleman separates resides here, contrary to a litany of analysis otherwise. So let's move on to anything but separation. For those that want to think he can separate, great. I'm happy for them. I see what those draft reviews see, and that's also consistent with the forum's draft expert Gunner. When I originally posted that video, it was meant as a general analytical tool to challenge, either corroborate or rebut, or both, the draft narratives. So let's focus on anything but separation. Contested catches, hands, etc. I'll touch on all your points and we'll go game-by-game otherwise. Reasonable? Otherwise, there are a lot of abbreviations in your summary, I can't make them all out.

That for sure, but I wouldn't dismiss the other.

How about a light behind the goal posts? Maybe balloons and confetti.

It's waaay too easy for the officials to control NBA games in favor of Vegas.

Where'd you get the data for how successful DART was, both for us as well as league-wide? That would be interesting. Also, in the video it says that DART is good for teams with athletic Tackles, do we consider Dawkins and Brown to be particularly athletic? Brown certainly doesn't appear to be particularly athletic per se. It also says "DART is a good solution and wrinkle for Zone Scheme teams and offenses that are having trouble with penetration and other gap scheme plays." Is that us? Granted, we had zero injuries to our OL last season which we cannot assume this season, but it seems that we didn't have any particular consistent difficulty with penetration as such, to the contrary it seems. Here's an interesting piece that I found while poking around for more info on the topic, it's up to right around the transition from Dorsey to Brady, but the metrics up to that point were good, as the piece points out. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/11/9/23952119/the-offensive-enigma-of-the-2023-buffalo-bills-nfl-analysis As to this season, it'd be nice to see Allen & the offense doing what Allen does best, but that likely won't happen for several reasons, primary being that we don't have the receiving talent to achieve that to that extent. It would also be nice to have someone work with Allen to get him to understand the value of the high-percentage passing game, but the time to have done that best was the past four years, not now when we have no "field stretchers" generally speaking and with what will likely be more claustrophobic defenses. If leadership hasn't been able to do that in Allen's five seasons of starting, it's probably not an odds-on bet that it'll happen this season. It would also be nice to ditch the overly conservative offensive approach defined by our fearless leader's complimentary football approach. Focus on the O, not the D and running game in relying on controlling the game. Again, that also doesn't seem likely to happen.

I'll engage, I must've missed it. Apologies there if so. I had a deluge of emotionally charged replies this a.m. I didn't even bother responding to a bunch. As to All-22 I tried to sign up last year, but something about DAZN said that it wasn't available in my country (the US obviously) and it wouldn't let me sign up. If you have a workaround I'd be tremendously grateful for it! I'll look at those time-stamped plays right now. ... ... To start, review the entire video when you have time. As I've said, I'm going to splice the video up into varying sections, but that'll take much time that I don't have right now. This is a busy time of the year for me. 7:11 ... No, I don't see any separation here. What's there is Coleman going OTM into zero coverage except for a S deep. Which defensive player (by number) do you see him separating from? It's a crap pass, can't blame him for that, but when it's thrown the S is right there with him, not separated. So no, not seeing it at all. Explain further in detail if you would. 014 ... Again, not seeing anything resembling separation here. On this play, 1st-and-10, the ball's snapped at the 8:01 mark and thrown 2 seconds later. To start, that's not even really much time to separate, but moreover, if you look at the DBs on that play, all of 'em, are way back. Three are a yard in front of the 1st-down line, the S is 16-yards off of the LoS. Coleman's wide left, he begins his slant inward about 5 yards out, at which time the DB covering him (#24, Zy Alexander) starts moving forward from about 10/11 yards out after having backpeddled to start the play. He attempts to reverse his momentum but that's futile, which is blatant, as Coleman's momentum is laterally, not downfield/flying. Again, that's more of a defensive alignment thing, not any separation. After the catch he's got a LB and another DB (#3) that have to completely alter their momentum as well, which is also futile. He jukes that last DB (#15) out of his jock, but that's not separation either. After that for the next 22 yards there's nothin' but green between him and the EZ, which is why his Sr. teammate Winson Wright (#1) is holding up his hand signaling TD essentially. I've spelled this out elsewhere here in similar detail. So again, that doesn't qualify as separation. It's taking advantage of an open field and slack coverage. 18:56 ... Same here. What anyone watching this play should notice is that for 12/13 yards the DB is on him quite nicely. It's only 13 yards out from the LoS Coleman makes a move that creates that shift in direction which is what I suppose creates some separation, but it was not speed that did it, not in the least. The DB (Jaden Harris, #7 for the Canes this past season) bites inside while Coleman goes outside. Coleman gains a yard or two on him, so yes, separation there, but as the play unfolds Harris closes that gap too. Another thing that you should look at when evaluating players in this fashion is whom they're up against mano-a-mano. I have yet to see a prominent Draft Expert, or any draft analyst, do this. In this case Harris (#7 this past season) was a red-shirt freshman, not the type of talent that Coleman's going to see in the NFL. It's one of the first things I look for in doing draft reviews of players. If their highlight reels are full of plays against opposing players that have little or zero chance of making the NFL, or otherwise as backup/practice squad players, then that's critical to note. One thing that I noticed about Coleman on the data that I had, is that opponents often match him up against inexperienced or not so good DBs while his teammates drew the better coverage guys. That says something. Otherwise, it seems that our definitions of separation are different, but I'm open to yours. That's a whole lot of detail about those plays and a lot more than simply saying he got separation. Just sayin'. OK, well that's just wrong, so no sense in discussing the rest. I had no idea who Coleman even was. I didn't know whether to be excited or not other than Draft Profile rankings. I've put out my very extensive (particularly relatively) info. Believe otherwise if you will. I'm not going to argue my past success and accolades or other aspects of that with you. Again, I don't care. Fine, I'm entirely wrong, I get it. LOL Really, I don't care. My takes are what my objective analylsis tells me. This notion that I had some preconceived bias against Coleman there isn't a shred of evidence for and is childish otherwise. BTW, even Gunner's not big on Coleman. Take it up similarly with him. That's hedging, but OK. Noted.

BTW, is this the same Weissman that had WR Jameson Williams 14th overall on his Big Board and WR Treylon Burks at 17th in 2022? The answer to that is yes. Let's just hope we get a whole lot more production from Coleman than those to have put up. Huge disappointments both of 'em any excuses aside. Point being, just because he's a scout does not mean that he's got it all correct.