PBF81

Great stuff there!! Thanks for taking the time! Completely agree, and Allen's the only player on our entire team that has routinely showed up come playoff time. So we can factor that on as well. I've always said that an offense can't be blamed if it put up yards, drives, and 36 points for example. To bring this around to the discussion point, now we're dumbing down and showing down the strength of our offense and trying to turn it into something that's never been a strength. It's frustrating watching these Allen prime years being friends away like this. Try and follow along with the context. 🙂

A 4th round pick for a short yardage back though?

I wouldn't disagree with your prognostication here. Cook also isn't used on 3rd-downs because he's not a classic 3-down RB, he's far from the guy that will get you the short, tough yards. He also wore down over the last fourth of the season with his average production and efficiency metrics dropping severely. His per-touch average was pathetic over his last five games and five of the nine under Brady. That's a chicken/egg thing though. This is the most curious and will be the most interesting season in McD's career to date. Moss had a far more notable collegiate career and production than Davis, so I'm curious about this. But perhaps most curious is that just last offseason McD said that he wanted to go to a faster, quicker offense, which they did with Cook. Now, what, they seem to be slowing it down again. Once again, the team seems to jump all over the place on offensive MO and there's almost no plan that's perceptible much less consistent. It's almost like on the offensive side it's been trial and error for seven seasons now.

Excellent possession receiver with outstanding hands who's good at finding soft spots in coverage.

Thanks for the civil discourse!! Interesting quote although it's obviously not surprising. I couldn't agree more on your first statement, in fact, you may have seen me post about how if he did that efficiently, then we'd be a record-breaking offense, and I mean not merely Bills, but NFL. I thought that we were headed there after our first few games last season. I do not agree on the better at it under Brady. From what I've seen and studied, which is relatively extensive, the entire reason why his metrics/stats got worse under Brady was entirely because he was put into that situation, which again, is not his forte. I believe he could get much better at it but I do not believe that he has the proper offensive coaching staff in place to get that out of him, particularly as it's guided by a defensive mindset. For example, here are his pre & post Brady metrics: Pre-Brady (Dorsey) 260 passing yards/game 70.3% compl. % 1.9 TDs/game 1.1 INTs/game 1.3 Sacks/game 96.6 Rating 7.4 YPA Hurried on 8.6% of attempts Hit on 8.0% of attempts 1st-Down% 33.7% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs) Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 8.4 Yards out ______________________________ Under Brady 244 passing yards/game 60.7% compl. % 1.4 TDs/game 1.0 INTs/game 1.6 Sacks/game 85.5 Rating 7.5 YPA Hurried on 9.2% of attempts Hit on 10.0% of attempts 1st-Down% 32.8% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs) Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 9.1 Yards out So if we analyze that data against the narrative that he improved under Brady, and that the passing game turned shorter, but that's obviously not the case. The depth of target alone tells us clearly that that's false. Also, if his game was truly shorter under Brady, it would be much closer to that high-percentage (aka short) passing game, which should also be indicative of getting the ball out much more quickly, but then why the additional increase on QB Hurries and Hits. As to efficiency metrics, Allen obviously got notably worse in Brady's system; down 10% in compl. %, 25% reduction in TD passes/game, and a large reduction in Rating of 11.1. In fact, let's assume that Allen's metrics in Brady's system held for an entire 17-game season, and since they are an average of Brady's 7 regular season games as such. Allen would finish with the following on the season with rankings by this past season in parentheses: 4,148 Yards (8th) 24 TDs (tied for 11th) 60.7% Compl. % (30th) 13th in 1st-Down % 85.5 Rating (23rd) Those numbers are only marginally better than his 2019 numbers of 20 TDs and 9 INTS (half), yet a mere 4 more TDs on an additional 1,000+ passing yards. 58.8% compl. %. His Rating the same as in 2019. People dismiss his average play with all kinds of narrative laden nonsense, but those are the numbers under Brady's system. Sure, he'll tweak it, but also sure, he'll also have McDefense breathing down his neck to stick to his complimentary football approach of running the ball and running the passing game who knows how, and now without a single player on the team that's proven to command double-coverage downfield, and with half of Allen's TD and yardage recipients now gone from the team, and remarkably with us replacing Davis with someone absurdly similar. Keep in mind how narratives form. They form by casual viewing and superficial results. i.e., we went 6-1 down the stretch and salvaged our playoffs, so Brady gets the credit despite the fact that we averaged a pathetic 19.5 PPG offensively in our last three games, and against horrible defenses for that matter, and needed ST/D TDs in two of those games to win them. Yet, it's attributed to Brady's being OC. etc. I'm in the process of breaking down Coleman's every pass attempt video, and parsing it into segments. But I've catalogued the data. A third (32%) of Coleman's caught passes were behind the line-of-scrimmage. A third. This doesn't dissuade, or shouldn't, any criticisms of Coleman whatsoever. Coleman caught passes at FSU last season only 9 times beyond 14 yards in-the-air, aka air-distance. He had 23 more uncaught beyond 14 yards, and from what is clearly shown in the video, I have 12 of those being balls that he should have caught. Anyway, I'm digressing here. More (video) breakdown on that to come. Either way, this narrative that Allen improved under Brady is simply false. Nor did the offense improve. There was obviously a McDefense-driven shift to running the ball more, but the passes clearly did not get shorter, and even if that were true there should have been a significant improvement in Allen's efficiency metrics, particularly his completion-% which dropped by a massive 10%, given that it would have been a high-percentage passing game. Diggs ran shorter routes, screens, short OTMs, a few backfield patterns, etc. They obviously didn't send him long very often, barely even medium depth. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy there that he lost a step, which feeds into my unspoken theory that they were attempting to drive him out, perhaps hoping that there would have been a more cap-friendly solution. That's another topic altogether. What Brady does to correct it remains to be seen, but does he have the authority and ability to push Allen back into his forte`? Agreeing with you, if Allen ever were to master that shorter high-percentage passing game, this offense would be unstoppable. But we were far from seeing that last season under Brady. But if they're trying to turn Allen into more of what Purdy, Burrow, Hurts, other QBs and even Mahomes does, then it's questionable as to whether or not they get the results that they want.

As long as it's not the outdoor experience of New Jersey. 😁

Sure, always welcome. I love doing that kind of stuff, I do it for fun. Brady was a master in the high-percentage passing game. Allen needs to focus on it, it doesn't come naturally for him. As to the creativity, we'll definitely need some with this caste.

If that's the case, what would be the harm in disclosing that. Bills fans understand the circumstances.

BTW, I just looked out of morbid curiosity. Cook's splits are that he averaged 5.3 ypc while leading, 3.7 while tied, 4.5 while trailing. FWIW In the last five games, keeping in mind that except for late in the Steelers playoff game we were never up comfortably enough to run the clock if we were even up at all, here are his carries in the 4th quarters of those games: Chargers: While leading, 5, 6, 5 yards While trailing, 3, 2, 4, 2, -3 NE: While leading only 2, 1, 0 Miami: While tied: 3, -2 Steelers (playoffs): While leading by a TD: 9, 3, 1 KC: While trailing by 3: -3, -4, 0, 1 So that theory doesn't really hold any water.

I've worked professionally all my life with stats. I'm pretty sure I know how they work. I've won plenty of recognition for my work as well, some of which is published. Thanks for the explanation though. LOL

One could surmise that the Buffalos were meant as a distraction to get people all whooped up so that they wouldn't ask anymore questions. Either way, this is the stadium project that everyone seems to agree has had the least depictions (renderings) of what the final product will look like of any.

Well, OK, of that's something more in your book than average passing, great, so be it. Similarly however, if three games out of 144 against dreadful Ds are what is required to prove that a QB is above average, isn't that the same thing. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Either way, let's chalk it up to different standards.

After some thought, that was actually the case prior to the last five games. He only had four 3rd-down carries all season. We were never up by any significant amount in any of the last five games. We lost one of those games and nearly lost the others with the D/STs bailing is out twice.

LOL You can see it now, parking lots with way more cars and hundreds of drones over the stadium as fans watch from the lots. Drones buzzing down to where the wire-cam is. It'd be fun to be in a light tower with a radio to shoot down drones with a high-velocity pellet gun upon request. Once it's finished, if we only had a dome we wouldn't have to worry about drones. Thanks! We'll all keep our drones in our pants. Unlike this guy ... https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/3vqdg7/bills_fans_get_it_on_in_the_parking_lot_while/

What's mind-boggling is why the secrecy. It can't really be because they think that sales will be brisker if they withhold that imagery. It's just weird.

No argument here. But again, we get into the why of it all. One argument is that they finally had a top defense (2nd ranked), but it didn't fold in the playoffs. They allowed 7, 24, 10, and 22 points, for an average of 16 PPG in the playoffs, and against teams ranked 2nd, 6th, 4th, and 3rd in scoring. Contrast that with our Ds over the past three seasons. 2021: We had the 1st ranked D and allowed 17 and 36 in regulation to the 6th ranked (NE) and 4th ranked offenses. 2022: We had the 2nd ranked D and allowed 24 (Skylar Thompson) and 27 points to the 11th and 7th ranked offenses. Keep in mind that Miami was nowhere near 11th with Thompson at the helm. In fact, of his three starts, his best game was vs. us, in Buffalo. Minnesota and their 28th ranked D held him to notably worse. 2023: We had the 4th ranked D and allowed 17 and 27 to the 28th and 15th ranked offenses. Also here, the Steelers (28th) were playing a backup QB. In 2021 the Chiefs only scored more points all season against the Raiders' 26th ranked D twice, the Eagles' 18th ranked D, and the Steelers' 20th ranked D. In 2022 the Fins only scored more points against the Texans' 27th ranked D, the Lions' 28th ranked D, the Bears' 32nd (DFL) ranked D, the Browns' 20th ranked D, and the Ravens' 3rd ranked D. The Bengals only scored more points vs. the 9th ranked Saints, the 13th ranked Bucs, the 23rd ranked Falcons, the 10th ranked Steelers, and the 19th ranked Panthers. In 2023 the Chiefs only scored more points against the 9th ranked Raiders' D, the 24th ranked Chargers' D, and the 20th ranked Bears' D. Whether or not that's impressive is apparently in the eyes of the beholder, but mathematically it's underachieving when weighing our defensive ranking contrasted with our defensive performances in contrast to all the teams ranked worse than us, which in 2020 were all 31 other teams, in 2021 were 30 teams, and 2022 were 28 teams.

Well, we'll certainly see. What they say when they draft and sign these guys is often diametrically opposed. Jones is a great example. Seems likely that we're either going to have a very explosive season offensively, or that Allen's going to have a relatively down year statistically. One or the other. He's also never gotten anywhere near as many carries & touches that he got last season, either in the NFL or in college.

No real argument with most of that although the Packers put up 27 offensive and Denver matched our 24. In terms of yards gained, 1st-Downs achieved, and passing yards, we were very much in the middle of the stack vs. KC. In rushing we were low-end against them. There wasn't a lot of garbage time in most of KC's games either. But given what you said, you seem to imply that if there's a fault in our greater system, that it's on Beane, which is quite possible, t least partially. But given what you said, is there anything else that you would consider that might be an issue in the causation of that all?

Six more days 'til we find out, but if that's the logic, the week 18 game against May be against the Jets whom many consider to be the top challenger for the East. They split with us with Wilson at QB whereas Miami once again dropped both games vs. us. Now the Jets have Rodgers back.

You missed one simple thing. Absolutely no one in our team besides Allen has consistently stepped up in the playoffs, not one player, as in zero. Since our primary problem isn't getting to the playoffs, aka not the regular season, it's our postseason performance in that regard, and where our defense folds and underachieves more often than not, what is the explanation for that in your assessment? Allen's a what, top-2 QB? There aren't many, if any, top 5 or 6 QBs watching the playoffs come January. It's not difficult for teams with to QBs to simply make the playoffs today unless they have zero defense and few skill position players. This past season the top 8 yardage and top 6 TD QBs all made the playoffs.

LOL, indeed. Seriously though, from the angle that we'll get up for Miami it makes sense, but losing to them seems all but inconceivable. NE and the Jets beat us once each those past season, NE nearly twice, and both teams have improved. It's not difficult to envision us splitting with them again, or the Jets even taking two.

Cook petered out late in the season. He averaged a pathetic 3.6 yards-per-carry in his last five games. Not sure whether that was how he was used or simply being unused to that many touches. How this season plays out will be incredibly interesting. We had an even higher rated RB in Moss, very similar in style to Davis, and far more accomplished in college, and we didn't seem to know how to use him and didn't do much with him. There certainly isn't any clear plan in view.

We haven't lost to the Dolphins though other than in that heat game in which we entirely outplayed them, and otherwise since Allen's 7th ever start and his first game against them, in Miami. We own Miami. The Jets H/A games many think will be our toughest. If Rodgers stays healthy that's likely the case, no?

We're not simply "throwing out three games ...", we're discounting them because they were the three best games of his career, his only three games with 5 passing TDs each. The difficulties come in that the teams against which that occurred, two were ranked DFL and 31st in passing D, which renders any performance less than stellar. The other team had the 25th ranked passing D. It just so happens that they all happened to be in the same season. Otherwise, and we can use varying metrics, but in terms of passing TD production, Newton has ranked accordingly; 2011: 12th in TDs, 15th in Rating 2012: 21st in TDs, 15th in Rating 2013: 14th in TDs, 16th in Rating 2014: 20th in TDs, 26th in Rating 2015: 5th in TDs, 7th in Rating 2016: 20th in TDs, 28th in Rating 2017: 15th in TDs, 24th in Rating 2018: 14th in TDs, 17th in Rating In his 13 other games against teams that weren't the two worst and one comparable, his per-season average in those games would also have placed him at 14th in TDs. Even so, in 2015, in his proficiency metrics within that "remarkable" season were: 27th in Compl. % 16th in Passing Yards 12th in 1st Down production 10th in Success% 26th in Sack% 23rd in Yards-per-Game 12th in Net Yards per Attempt The data suggest all but indisputably that Newton was always nothing more than an average QB, even in that 2015 season. OK You have a point based upon scant data and you're immovable. That's fine. But there's no need to belabor the argument. It's also not particularly important. It's clear that both the Panthers under Rivera and our team under McD have both underachieved, perhaps them more so, particularly given some of the really standout talent on their team, but similarly in the playoffs.

Even the worst teams beat a good team or two many seasons. The 1-15 Cowboys beat the 10-6 Skins as their only win in '89 I think it was. Otherwise, it's also wild calling a team that largely beat losing teams all season long with one of the easiest schedules in modern history as something other than overrated. It's arguable either way I suppose. The greater point is that Newton was a very average QB other than in a single season, and that season was carried by his three best career games against the two worst passing Ds in the league and the 25th ranked passing D, for 15 of his 35 TDs. Newton was always a very average passer. The Panthers were a mixed bag under that coaching staff. Hot 'n cold from one season to the next, never any consistency.