PBF81

As long as we have a healthy Allen ...

The odds of that are remote. We can't even get straight answers from Mr. Integrity, our head coach, as to who's D it is. The odds of Holcomb superceding both of them are slim to nil. The offense has at least shown that it's capable of playing at a high enough level in the playoffs to win a Super Bowl. The D on the other hand has not, and is set to get worse.

It's been said that doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results is the definition of insanity. Our defense simply doesn't show up in the playoffs, as a rule now. BUT, off it doesn't show up, then we're not winning anything. Really only two dots to connect. The reasons are clear too many and don't need to continue to be discussed ad nauseum. The coaching and design limitations and failures of the offense can be worked around, but with the defense giving games away in the playoffs every season, is not going to happen, particularly as key players age and leave. Poyer and Von Miller were both brought her as free agents, they weren't drafted. We don't have the resources to restock the D as we have, and Beane's drafting ain't cuttin' the Weber's.

Obviously Terry can, but he won't. As to his seat being hot, it will be next season if one or more of several things happen/don't-happen. A. We don't win the division. What's seemed like a lock for years all of a sudden doesn't seem so gimme. B. We don't get at least to the AFC CG. C. Our defense regresses significantly, which I can easily see occurring. Von Miller's finished as an above-average player. He'll be lucky at 34 to come back 100%, then he's still fighting age issues, but that's not even likely. He'll diminish from there. If Edmunds leaves, LOL, we don't even have two starting caliber LBs. Poyer was huge on the defense, his absence will be felt. Otherwise, some fans can see that McD's limitations aren't going to improve. Why should they, he doesn't even hold his coaching staff accountable. As Dirty Harry said, a man's got to know his limitations. McD doesn't know his. Some people catch on sooner than others. Their performance in the playoffs on their watch, unless they play an offense bereft team like the Pats, has been horrendous.

Pegula will never say anything and Beane's not going to fire the guy that got him a GM job he didn't earn. I'm starting to think that there's something in McD's contract that let's him run the show at OBD.

Or Peter ... the passing coordinator has to come in on Sunday too.

He coordinates the passing game, ... come on. Don't worry, he'll be the one that gets fired next year as the scapegoat, ... if it's not the concessions manager that is. That's OK, they can pay me whatever he's getting to point the finger at me. I'm up for it.

The Von Miller trade was a swing for the fences with risks. If he was correct, it may have propelled us to a SB win. If not, then clearly there would be significant set-backs. The assumption underlying the trade was that the singular piece missing from our inability to win it all was a premier pass-rusher. The upside, if everything went right, then we'd win a Super Bowl. The drawback, any number of things could go wrong: diminished performance, that particular piece not being the "singular piece," or injury to a 33-year old player. The risks obviously played out whereas the benefits did not. Here's my take: Had any of the following of Beane's draft picks worked out to above-average performance at the pass-rushing position, then he wouldn't have needed to take that risk: Rousseau 1st round, Basham 2nd round, Epenesa 2nd round, Oliver trade-up high 1st-round. Neither did any of his free-agent acquisitions. Now we have soon-to-be 34-year old OLB/DE that hasn't played to a premier level in several seasons (last one having been 2018), and coming off of an ACL repair. The odds of him being above-average next season are not good, if he even hits the field for week 1. At 34 he's only going to diminish. So at the end of the day it turned out to be a bad move. The risks were hardly unknown however, so it was a swing for the fences, but a miss.

Frasier doesn't seem to understand what Yards-AFTER-the-Catch are. That should be a terminal liability for a DC.

Benjamin, they grossly overpaid for Lotulolei, McD hired Beane from there, and I think at least two more players. It's gotten ridiculous.

LMAO, and now this idiotic hire of Al Holcomb. I can't imagine this going over very well given the circumstances. FWIW, Carolina had a below-average defense this season and they played hardly any above average offenses. And their solution is another Carolina person, Al Holcomb. SMH

Phenominal analysis, I really enjoyed reading that!! A few comments to the above parts ... Hill and Kelce weren't being covered, at least not effectively. It's a huge part of why Frasier's not getting any interest. The only ones not seeing it are a subset of our own fans. And this arguing back-n-forth amongst some as to whether it's Frasier's D or McD's D, but neither taking responsibility, McD assigning none (IMO that's a clue), and no one ultimately being held accountable isn't a good look and also isn't confidence inspiring. We can all argue until we're blue in the face, none of us has even a remote say in the matter. But this is the kind of stuff that produces the Marvin Lewis's of the NFL, it's beyond obvious here that there are coaching issues. McD was an OJT HC when he got here, Beane is an OJT GM, but they've topped out. Sure, people can argue that they'll improve, but Beane hasn't produced any impact players on days 1 & 2 of his drafts besides Allen. What we appear to have is a Players Coach team mentality, where everything revolves around relationships, character, and good vibes, but when it comes to accountability for not performing, SMH. I've also said it before but I'll say it again, the owners, coaches, and players all treat this like the business that it is. But for some reason, we, the paying fans, aren't supposed to look at it that way. I guess we'll have to wait and see how long it takes for a critical mass of fans to bring the same pressure to bear on Pegula. Speaking of which, we have no idea what's going to happen now either given the update on Kim's status. There's some speculation in the media in spots that a sale could result. That wouldn't surprise me, but if it does, obviously a whole lot changes. As for myself, I went thru those Super Bowl seasons, and it got old watching Levy get outcoached on the field for four straight. If Parcells or Johnson had been our HC we'd have won two, possibly three of those. We had the better team in three of the four. The Skins had a better team than we did. Anyway, fantastic analysis!!

Well, OK, IMO that's putting quite a bit of faith in the unproven, but I see your point. Morse, what, 6 concussions now and old for a C. OK, so he slides to G then? Morse didn't seem to have had a great year, at least not from what I saw. Bates, I hear a lot of talk but again, I'm not seeing even an average G here. Maybe he'll become that above-average G then. Brown, he's gonna have to take a huge step up in his third season this year to impress people. Our OL was not good this year, and those three were the core of the OL and started alongside Dawkins who seems to have played pretty well, but he's only signed for two more seasons. We'll see. If I were GM though, two of my picks in rounds 1-3, including the 1st round, would be OT and C/G.

Yup, completely agree!

Not a bad point in a vacuum I suppose, but Allen gets hammered more than most QBs in the pocket, and, that's why he has to run/scramble often, because there is no pocket. Either way, here are the facts to date on Beane's drafts: He's poured almost everything into the D, but it sucks in the playoffs. Most of his draft picks on days 1 & 2 have been in the Front-7 and he still hasn't produced an impact player there. How many more resources are we going to expend doing that. He's swung and missed on 3 day 1/2 RBs, same there. Nothing better than average if even that. No WRs on days 1/2 and only the two OL-men I'd mentioned, Ford and Brown. In short, I think that a lot of people are going to be banging their heads against a wall if he goes DE/DT/LB/RB again, despite the fact that due to his inability to draft well all of those needs still exist. I like your plan of OT in round 1. I would strongly suggest that if Patterson is there in round 2 that they take him. They won't, so we're both pissing into the wind. LOL All we can do is watch anyway. I suppose it's fun to play GM tho. I wish I had a fraction of the paycheck that comes with it tho. LOL

It's our primary one, and B, the one that's gotten the least attention on this team on Beane's watch, yet, arguably the most important given that we have Allen. Allen's gotten lucky so far. That luck's not going to hold out for 6 or 7 more seasons like that.

I have no idea how we can't go almost entirely OL on Days 1 & 2 (Rounds 1-3) On Beane's watch we've only drafted OL-men twice on days 1/2, Ford, who sucked and is gone, and Brown, probably not far behind. So in five Beane drafts we have Brown to show for our efforts in rounds 1-3. SMH Then of course we follow it up with stocking our OL with 1-2 year free agent signees on the cheap. It's the exact opposite of Belichick's approach, which was make sure your lines are great and chinse on the rest. I mean what are we going to wait for, Allen to suffer a complete knee injury, or a hip, shoulder, etc., then say "we need to beef up the OL." Honestly, any half-witted fan seems to understand this better than our multi-million dollar GM and HC. I'd probably take a chance that Patterson (C) is there late in round 2, grab the best OT or OG in late round 1. I'd probably grab another OG/OT in round 3, or a TE that can block. Morse isn't long for the team anymore, Dawkins is our only above-average OL-man. He's only under contract for two more seasons. What, we're going to wait until our OL completely sucks rhino breasts before we make a move. Beane obviously doesn't know how to draft for the Front-7. 8 of his 15 day 1/2 picks have been in the F7, including trade-up Oliver and Edmnds, and look what we have to show for it. Not a ringer in the bunch. I expect him to take another DE/OLB early tho, hey, why not, it's just a video game to him apparently.

And it all worked because of Brady. Belichick has sucked moose balls as a HC w/o Brady. He was 41-43 in the regular season in five seasons with Bledsoe or Cassel, with only one playoff appearance, a Wild Card Round loss to us, a blowout. In Cleveland he was 36-44 in the regular season, 1-1 in the playoffs with his only win, ironically, over the Bledsoe-led Patriots before getting annihilated by the Neil O'Donnell led Steelers. In his three playoffs, he was outscored by a total of 46-89, or an average of 15-30. In total, he was 77-87 in the regular season in ten seasons w/o Brady, and 1-2 in the playoffs with miserable performances therein. He made the playoffs only twice in ten seasons, both times ending in miserable failure with the third worst loss in the '94 playoffs and the worst loss in the '21 playoffs. Belichick should have an enormous lifesize bust of Brady by his front door to praise before he leaves home every day, alongside a poster of all of the coaches and GMs for the Bills, Jets, and Fins during that stretch.

It's fun, isn't it. :/

I just counted, unless I made a mistake, Brady was 8-10 @ Miami. 2008 was Cassel.

The rest of your points are valid, but I think that this one is paramount. I'll list the QBs in our division on the Jets, Fins, and us during Brady's years in NE before Brady left, and not including Allen's first couple of seasons where he wasn't good. Look at the number of different starting QBs in that 19-year stretch. Bills: Van Pelt, Bledsoe, Holcomb, Losman, Edwards, Fitzpatrick, Manuel, Orton, and Taylor Fins: Fiedler, Feeley, Frerotte, Harrington, Lemon, Pennington, Henne, Moore, Tannehill, Cutler, and Fitzpatrick Jets: Testeverde (old), Pennington, Bollinger, Favre (old), Sanchez, Smith, Fitzpatrick, McCown, and Darnold None of 'em were any good when they were on those teams. That's an easy 6-games/season that are typically "tough division games" that weren't tough for NE.

All I'm saying is that Allen was more of a known project of sorts than a plug-n-play QB. This further reinforces both McD's & Beane's luck.

By the way, your post reminded me of this cartoon. These were the best, particularly the one about Bledsoe. But speaking of Trubisky and Chicago ... ROFLMAO LMAO, here's the Bledsoe one. Skip to the 3:10 mark. ROFLMAO

Can't see the forest for the trees thing I suppose. Good question. A refusal to want to make the tough decisions for one or more reasons likely being the reason why nothing changes. That's when ownership needs to step in, but Kim is who-knows-where and Terry doesn't seem to have the gumption.

Great post, and I would add this in relation to a few of your comments ... "This is a fan board and the many here look to McD as a messiah,..." It is a fan board, and fans otherwise in general. Nice guys are liked, McD's a nice guy. Levy was incredibly well liked, but he did nothing as a HC prior to coming here, in fact, I have no idea why Polian selected him of all possibilities. He was a sub-.500 coach (31-42, .425) with KC prior to coming to Buffalo, and with ZERO significant NFL coaching otherwise. He stayed, not because he could get us a championship, but because he was a great guy, and he was. But sometimes that's the "tough decision," to get rid of the nice guy that can't get it done, or perhaps relegate him to another role, which is unheard of in the NFL. For example, put McD at DC and bring in an offensive-minded HC. Hell, give McD the same money he's making now. I've never understood the bickering over paying a HC up to $10M when he's the one that decides the direction that your team is going, and when numerous players make more than that. Anyway, most coaches wouldn't accept that on pride alone, but that's what needs to be done here, it's pretty clear. It won't happen for that reason tho, until Allen's spent, and then we get the next "QB quest" with coaches "that aren't as good as McD," ... and we'll wonder why not. LOL "McD took that team (a meaningless loss in week 17) and went from 7-9 to 9-7 and a Dalton miracle to the playoffs." It's quite clear that this team is no better than the average 6.6 win teams we had since our last playoff appearance and prior to McD getting here, without Allen. Take him out of the mix and you don't even have an average team. Beane's done nothing significant on his watch, another issue similar in nature. Allen does everything. He has half of our rushing TDs. Imagine Keenum or Barkley running this offense. What, 7-10, tops? How many times has the running game powered this team to a win over a team with a good defense? How many times has the defense powered this team to a win over a team with a good offense? I'm sure that there's an exception or two, but it doesn't happen for the most part. Allen has to do everything, and it's pretty clear that the coaches don't challenge him on his risks because they know he's carrying their water. "And I have to again point out how this coaching staff coddled and stunted Allen. 300 yards passing is generally used as a starting point with QB's. It took Allen 28 starts to pass that # (part of McD's incredible 42 game stretch)." Here's my take on that. All of the QBs that you named had prolific success in college football. Allen did not. Allen posted a mere two 300-yard games at Wyoming, and only three more over 250, and none were against teams that ever challenge for an NCAA title. Allen went up largely against non-NFL bound competitiont, whereas the others you named did not, they regularly played against players that are now in the NFL. Rodgers probably comes closest to Allen. Mahomes was probably the most prolific, 22 of his 32 games were over 300, five were over 500, 11 over 400. I was surprised that he wasn't among the first few picks and I recall wondering why everyone thought that Trubisky was so good as to be 2nd overall. Then again it was Chicago. Anyway, I'm surprised that Allen's done what he's done. He's very bright and I give him the credit for his own development, which fuels your argument that with better coaching he'd be much better. Obviously I agree. He may have come up to speed faster with better coaching, but I never would have expected him to come up like the others given that his learning-curve in that way was far steeper. Look at Picket for example, in his Sr. season he had 11 of 13 games over 250, 8 of 13 over 300, 3 over 400, and 1 over 500. In Allen's Jr. season, his last at Wyoming, he had 1 game over 234 yards, 328 and 2 TDs against Gardner-Webb. Even his Sophomore season, only 1 game over 300, against UNLV. His development IMO, which agreed, could have been faster and better, has been nothing short of remarkable otherwise. We knew that Burrow was going to be good just watching him dismantle Clemson and their 3rd-ranked scoring D in the NC game. Similar for Lawrence, who also came out as a Jr. But Allen never had the chance to develop against that level of competition. It's incredibly rare for a QB to learn to do that in the NFL.