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Everything posted by PBF81
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I did not know this, thanks for the heads up.
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Maybe, but I don't recall ANY statements about Allen's ability to run, as he has, when they drafted him. Athleticism, yes, but they say that about a lot of QBs. There are a number of incredibly athletic QBs in the league today. Either way, happy to look at draft statements by Beane about that, I simply don't remember hearing any.
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Yes, I realize that. But he also averaged 3.7 ypc that season. In his Jr. (last) year, that dropped to 2.2 ypc. Meaning that it was most scramble runs for short gains, sneaks, etc. He didn't run like he does now in college. We've digressed from my original point tho, his rushing ability, which again, is a huge part of his game and defines him to a large extent, is not something that Beane mentioned when alluding to Allen's potential. It was Allen's arm. If we had to rely exclusively on Allen's arm, really more his decision-making (or is it play-calling?), then as a pure pocket passer there's work to do and progress to be made. Most of us here realize that he regressed in that way from '21 to this past season. I blame it on coaching, i.e., play-calling, the lack of ability of McD to control the flow of the game, among other things. But nonetheless. Again, having said all that, when healthy, there isn't a QB that I'd rather have than Allen these days. But there's no way Beane knew that he'd be this good.
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I hear ya, I got it. I bet they would if they're lighting it up for the Eagles. I was merely putting the shoe on the other foot from a cities perspective. Why is NY/NYC putting up the colors for another city at all. The geographical proximity between NYC and Philly isn't much different that between Philly and Balt/DC, Pitt and Cleveland, Cinci and Indy, e.g. I don't see any of those places putting up the colors of those teams. It's just weird I thought. We're on the same sheet, just two different angles.
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I didn't hear one word ever from Beane about Allen's rushing ability. But you're overlooking the point here, sure, Allen ran some at Wyoming, but it wasn't to the extent that he has here.
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It's a good thing he has a girlfriend.
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Here's my response to that take, when they drafted Allen no one said a word about his ability to run. All they talked about was his ability to make any pass. Point being, his running/scrambling is a HUGE part of his game. Beane didn't forecast that, so let's not give him credit for it. That part of it was luck for him, Beane that is. And don't get it wrong, he'd still get credit for Allen's arm, but honestly, take away Allen's ability to extend plays, run, etc., and that's several fewer wins every season. To be blunt, Allen's hardly the best pocket-passer in the league straight up. And I love Allen, I wouldn't take anyone else. He's very bright too and has every intangible that anyone could want.
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I ran the numbers over the past four seasons for Frasier's Defense in the playoffs. Here are the per-game averages over those 8 games: 24 for 38 for 272 Yards, 1-3/4 TDs, 5/8 INT allowed 28 carries for 132 Yards, 1 Rushing TD allowed 389 Total Net Yards allowed 25.5 Points Allowed (31 PPG allowed the last 5 games, so Frasier isn't learning anything) 24 1st-Downs allowed 2.75 Sacks 1 Fumble Recovery every 4 games 7 of 14 3rd-Down Conversions allowed 60% (9 of 15 in all 8 games) 4th-Down Conversions allowed That's very bad.
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AND, we'll be incredibly lucky if he doesn't sustain a serious injury behind this OL and until they get it corrected. It's so bad, and with Morse a week to week proposition at this point, it's hardly a one offseason project, particularly with sparse resources. Beane has relied upon the NFL's bargain basement of 1-2 year low-end free-agent signees. Now he's having to deal with his negligence. Should be interesting to say the least.
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We're not talking about other teams except for the best. I'd be willing to wager that if we compare the Drafts for Philly, SF, Cinci, and KC that we'd be worse. There's also a large degree of subjectivity in how someone views the draft. For purposes of our brief discussion, I'll define mine as the necessity of having to get impact starters from your 1st and 2nd round picks, and at minimum solid depth or strong role-playing from your 3rd rounders and early day-3 picks. Here are our 1st and 2nd rounders on Beane's ticket: 2018: Allen (1st) & Edmunds (1st), the latter a trade up. 2019: Oliver (9th overall) and Ford (early 2nd) 2020: Epenesa (2nd) 2021: Rousseau (1st) & Basham (2nd) 2022: Elam (1st) & Cook (2nd) Granted, how they're used and how often are relevant, but now we're talking about McD/Coaching being an issue. It's a pick your poison kinda thing. Either way, which of those players besides Allen do you consider to be impact players? I don't consider any of them to be. The best are probably Oliver and Edmunds, neither of whose 5th years were picked up, which is telling there. Ford's gone, Cook was a luxury pick and there's nothing in his collegiate dossier besides being related to Dalvin that suggests that he's an impact starter at his position. He was drafted for his ability to catch out of the backfield, oddly the same reason we trade for Hines. Cook has an unimpressive Catch%. Rousseau, since Von Miller went down has been pedestrian. Almost all of his releavant stats came against two teams with pedestrian offenses, the Jets and Pats, and struggling QBs. He's not an impact player. I'm pretty certain that if we look at the 1st/2nd rounders of all the playoff teams this season, we'll find that they all drafted better than we did in that regard. Oh, and BTW, our 3rd rounders on Beane's watch ... Harrison Phillips Singletary Knox Moss Spencer Brown Bernard Phillips is gone and like so many of our other castoffs is playing better elsewhere. Singletary's gone now. Knox is good for a 3rd. Moss bust and gone. Brown, not good. Bernard, jury's out I suppose, at best. I'm open to discuss which parts of that render Beane good at drafting.
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Fair enough, but does anything in the organization now, after 6 years of McD being here and 5 Beane orchestrated Drafts suggest to you that this is in the offing?
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BTW, there have been some games, not a lot, but where he's been a fantastic pocket passer. But he's not like Mahomes or Burrow in that regard. Remember, when they drafted Allen all they talked about was his huge/strong arm, and ability to make any throw. No one ever mentioned any potential for him to run as he did, not once. So that's gravy, unearned gravy, for Beane and to a lesser extent McD. But here's the thing on "the ability to make any throw," he shouldn't be ignoring the higher percentage throws regularly in favor of "any throw." This isn't a video game. That's what I'm referring to when I talk about coaching as it relates to him and a methodology in terms of running the offense. And if it ever got to a point where the coaches were desperately trying to get him to hit that underneath and short/medium higher percentage stuff and he was simply ignoring them, that'd be a whole other discussion. I don't think that's where we are tho. Do you?
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Sure you can. Do you believe that our OL was coached as well as it could have been? I don't. In fact, I don't have any faith that ANY unit on our team has been optimally coached. Having said that, I understand what you're saying, but part of my point, a big part, is that the talent on the team around him, or even on D as the team goes, in this specific discussion the OL, makes a huge difference. Again, as you know. We do know that in the instances where he has had time in the pocket, he's still made questionable decisions, routinely ignored the higher percentage underneath stuff that log 1st Downs and keep the chains moving. Just sayin'.
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FWIW I agree with you. On Allen, my point is twofold. First, that his running/scrambling/etc. is a huge part of his game. As a pure pocket passer in contrast, frankly, I'd rather have Burrow, or even Mahomes. Secondly, implied, that he doesn't have the OL to be able to play to that level as a pure pocket passer. That's due to the GM/HC deficiencies here contrasted with there and elsewhere, at least the four teams that are playing today.
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Or more likely getting him injured so that he's a fraction of the player he was after 18 months (if lucky if that were to occur) of rehab.
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Well, we were outcoached by the Jets, twice, as they outplayed us but had inferior talent generally speaking. At QB it wasn't even close.
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I don't think that Allen's going to be running the way he does in ten years, not even close. I'll give him five, six tops of that. Keep in mind too that because he has to do everything, he's a lot more likely to get injured. He suffered one this year, due more to crap OL play, but still, we're lucky, he's lucky, that it hasn't been a knee or shoulder.
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Keep in mind that without our Allen-led offense, opposing offenses would have scored much more and logged more yards than they did due to our inability to stay on the field offensively.
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It’s obvious what ails the Bills, they’re softer than custard.
PBF81 replied to Tipster19's topic in The Stadium Wall
Well, at this point it's pretty obvious that Frasier doesn't have what it takes to make it thru a string of playoff games while playing the kind of D that we play during the season. It's also pretty obvious that Allen can use better instruction. It's pretty obvious that there doesn't seem to be any kind of methodical approach on game days, more a "shoot from the hip" thing. It's also pretty obvious that Beane's 1st and 2nd rounders aren't amounting to the impact players that they should be. It's also pretty obvious that McDermott is more of a cheerleader than a tactician, ala the rest of the coaches in the playoffs at this point, and also isn't going to push them over the hump. Now with their own decision-making setting us back, for who knows how long, they continue on as if nothing happens. To support your statement. In a perfect world, Pegula should have told McD that if he doesn't at least get us back to the AFC CG today, that he's gone. McD should have gotten rid of Frasier after last season, for sure now. He didn't nor won't. At bare minimum, if they want to treat this like a business, unless they want to be JAB (business), changes need to be made at the top levels. People ask here, what we do if we're Beane? It's a loaded question, most of us here wouldn't be in this situation if we had been in charge over the past few years. Asking other people to clean up an unsolvable mess created by another isn't fair. If Pegula had any stones, he'd tell McBeane both, next year they'd better get to the AFC CG or start looking for new work. But we'll rely on the whole "well, it's better the 20 years of mediocrity" schtick until we enter the next 20 years of it. Could also be that McD read too many press clippings about him and the team and went into cruise-control. We'll never know. We do know that nothing's going to change tho, the things that we're lacking simply don't appear overnight and for no reasons. -
All in all, the holes we have are due to the lack of effective drafting. That's the main point that we seem to agree on. You never know how players turn out over time.
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Given the 3 year rule. Analyzing the Bills 2020 draft..
PBF81 replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
Fair, but I wouldn't give Beane credit for simply identifying a known proven talent at his position. We were fortunate that Diggs was persona-non-grata in Minnesota. Minny used that pick for Jefferson, quite arguably better than Diggs. Also, we threw in a few other day-three picks. Good transaction, just saying that I don't use it to credit Beane for being able to draft well. Milano wasn't drafted under Beane. Also not sure that they brought Hyde on board while Beane was in charge. Did they? He too came in 2017, but as a FA. -
One of the most important things is consistency. Take great players, the Bosa's, or the Watt's. They play hard and well almost all the time. Our best players in the F7, besides Milano who's taken a number of years to develop into that player, don't show up with any consistency. Somewhere hear or elsewhere I read that after Miller went out, our entire D regressed in a big way. Beane has drafted almost no consistent players. Milano wasn't one of Beane's draftees. Agreed, but that fuels my statements about the LB-ing corps even more. I threw him in there to eliminate people saying that we had three until he went out. We've had only two decent LBs the entire time that Beane's been here, if even two, as it's taken Milano what, five seasons to develop to where he is now. Again, the point being that we have only two LBs, and if Edmunds leaves, ... then what, rhetorically.
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That's something else that we're really not talking about. The entire d rotates except for the LBs where we have zero depth, hell, we don't even have three reliable starters at LB. But players like Oliver should be expected to take at least 80% of the snaps. Oliver had 50% and Rousseau had 44%. Both 1st rounders. That's ridiculous.