PBF81

Thanks! OK, so we start with the LSU game, which was a great game for him overall and from a statistical perspective. It was also 20% of his season's production more or less in terms of TDs, yards, and catches. 0:08 separation at release (poor throw) Agree on the poor throw. As to the route, it's a pretty standard route that just about every WR in the NFL can execute with a properly thrown pass. What I looked for while watching that video, are traits that will distinguish him in the NFL, not what may distinguish him at the collegiate level. 0:16 Run after catch Agree, and I'll add, a beautiful YAC on a beautifully thrown ball. That's one of the few plays that I had as having been noteworthy. 3:04 separation at release (poor throw) I have this as a drop. The ball was right between his hands against two DBs smaller that he is. But here's the thing, all we've heard is about how great he is on "contested catches," well, that was one and it wasn't impressive. One could excuse it, but that's not being impressive. The opponent is Southern Miss which boasted the 128th (out of 133) ranked D. The DBs were a red-shirt sophomore that has hardly played, and a red-shirt junior that has 1 INT in 23 games played. Happy to discuss. 4:38 run after catch Agree, one of his best few plays. Same defenders however, and a whole lot of green after the DB with hardly any experience whiffs on the tackle. Great hurdle. It's not going to be nearly that easy here. 5:40 created separation at stem (drop) We'll disagree a little here. You say separation, but had he caught it, it would have been what, a 7, 8 yard gain, the DBs dropped back and only made slight contact a yard or two from where would have caught it, so not quite sure that "separation" applies here. Otherwise, the DB on him was Andrew Mukuba, a third year Jr. that has 1 INT, 1 Sack, and 16 PDs in 35 games played. 6:02 separation again here, tough to call this separation. It was botched coverage to start, same DB, and it was also a broken play as you can hear the announcer, uncovered he simply came back. Good play, but nothing other than routine. 6:15 heads up uncover Pure botched coverage. Look again. Absolutely no one on him at any point during that play after Mickens completely whiffs while going into the backfield. Otherwise, a very routine 7-yard TD pass. Credit play-design on that one. 7:04 turned safety around (poor throw) Yeah, that's a non-play. Good coverage by the DB, a S it appears to be. Again, we're looking for reasons to get excited though, not excuses as to why he didn't do more. 7:40 game winner contested A phenominal play. Again, one of the few notable ones. 9:20 one handed contested Agreed, another phenominal catch. I think we've gotten the three notable ones now. At 4:38, this one, and the one prior. 10:53 separation I have to question separation here. It was clearly a juke of some sort where he lost the CB, Isaiah Johnson on Syracuse. It's not a play that he's likely to make in the NFL. Johnson went undrafted as a Sr. and NFL.com has him projected as a bottom of roster or practice squad type. So to any extent that he did "separate," that's whom it was against. NFL.com says this about Johnson in his draft profile; a fundamental lack of coverage fluidity and deep speed will be hard to cover up as a pro. In short, he's far from NFL caliber competition. 12:30 run after catch Again, Syracuse, and a classic bubble screen. Up 27-3 in the 4th, this is far more a simply clinic on poor tackling than it is for Coleman on what, a 12-yard gain. This isn't the type of play that's going to work well for him in the NFL given his lack of speed. 12:40 cooks zone coverage Not seeing that here against Duke. Wrong time stamp perhaps? 13:15 cooks zone coverage Again, more blown coverage, the announcer points that out how Al Blades, the DB tasked with covering Coleman, does not cover him. Good route, good catch, but nothing spectacular, a routine route & catch in the NFL every weekend. BTW, Blades, that CB/DB, was 6 years in the NCAAs, managed a mere 4 INTs (none in the past three seasons) and 24 PDs in 56 NCAA games played. He went undrafted and was picked up by the Jets as an Undrafted FA. He doesn't even have a draft profile at NFL.com or PFF. 13:45 contested catch A good catch going down on a clothesline pass into heavy coverage by Travis. 14:50 yards after catch YAC are notable when they're in traffic. After Carson whiffs on Coleman at the LoS however, it's pretty much all but green to the EZ. Any JAG WR in the NFL makes that play after the catch. 15:17 one handed contested TD That was a very good catch. I'm not sure what they mean by contested, but not sure that's it. Either way, for the few of those, there are three or four in the video where he doesn't catch it. 18:10 And the foul TD A little bit of a pushoff on his end as well. Very good catch big WR v. a freshman CB. That seems like a pretty standard catch though, nothing that's going to separate him in the NFL. It depends a lot more on the QB than the WR. 18:42 separation at release (wrong shoulder throw) Not sure how you see any separation at release, it's not in the video. It appears that he shakes him at the last minute, but having been a non-catch on an overthrow, not sure how this says much one way or the other. 21:08 separation and run after catch I'm not sure how you define separation. Separation is being able to separate from a dedicated defender. He did not do that on this play or some of the others you cite separation on. He found (finds) a soft spot in a zone. He makes the catch 9 yards from the LoS after hooking back, then turns and runs. Not one defender is in the area to make a play, again, in a what's obviously a zone. They close the gap and make the tackle. But separation it is not. Happy to discuss further if you like. But I count (I think) four catches of any gravity/magnitude here and anything that should be considered anything but routine. That's it. The rest of the video is largely unimpressive stuff, which includes many similar situations in which he fails to deliver.

OK, so? Maybe not draft players that are so young so that they don't take two or three seasons to develop. Right? I mean what, is the insistence that we didn't draft him for this season? Next season? So what. That's a McBeane thing.

Yes, I am. My sensibilities do not allow me to envision Coleman as doing much beyond #3 production in the NFL. It wasn't a preexisting bias I came into the analysis with. I've now spent about 20 (or more) hours reviewing his play, cataloging each and every pass attempt/target/reception into a database, and have analyzed that extensively. I came that determination while doing that. BTW, did you realize that a third of his receptions were caught behind the Line of Scrimmage? But I'll tell you what, I'll make the very same offer that I've made with several people here, that only one person has taken me up on yet, and as a result expressed equal concerns. Watch this video of his every pass last season at FSU, and do several things: Provide the time stamp of every play that makes you see something beyond incredibly ordinary in him; Provide any video evidence that suggests that he'll be more than just another WR incapable of being a #1 or #2 as this forum seems to define it; Explain why you believe that he'll be better than Davis; Lastly, explain why his style of plays lends itself to any particular success in the NFL. We all know the narratives, particularly in Bills Land, but the reality is somewhat different, particularly on his "contested catches" schtick, which PFF points out in an excellently written piece, here's the link; https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect Here's the link to the video, let me know if you're game, I'd love to go through it with you. This time of year there's not much else to do. LOL We've had quite a few WRs come through here whose production here during Josh's time was less than it was elsewhere. In fact, every season people say the same thing. Last season it was Harty and Sherfield, how'd that work out? Watch that video and say whether or not you think Josh being his QB is going to make a pronounced difference. As well, I'd be ecstatic to go thru it with you here game by game if you like. Again, it's the boring time of the year.

Look, there are exceptions both ways. If you want to believe that he's on the positive side of that, great. Time will tell though, not popular belief or consensus. Take a look at the WRs picked last year in the first two rounds. It's a mixed bag. Quentin Johnston and Johnathan Mingo are the two that are most like Coleman and neither impressed in any way, shape, or form. As stated, there are many people and sites that have noted that however. Well, OK, that's all fine and dandy, but it still doesn't translate to production nor render the fact that he lacked high-end production false. Again, talk is cheap. And who really likes hearing that he won't be doing much early in the season? As our first overall pick, even at the top of the 2nd, and given our sore lack of and dire need for WRs, that really shouldn't sit well with any Bills fan. Also, in light of that, how long are we supposed to wait for production? What, two, three seasons? ... until he's up for a new contract? Just asking the tough questions here.

If he's such a "stone-cold killer on the football field," then why the lack of high-end production. Talk is cheap this time of year. Let's hope it translates to the field. A lot of people have their doubts.

An unsurprising demise for someone that thought they were bigger than the sport itself. Who knows, our society has such an appetite for dysfunctional drama though that maybe he'll get his own reality show now. Someone with a life perspective attitude like his that's broke, what could possibly go wrong. He's fortunate that he's not already in prison, that could change very quickly.

Definitely interesting, lots of space for discussion there. The point however was in relation to Davis implicitly being responsible for those when he wasn't for the most part, rather they were either bad throws and/or poor choices for throws. Allen liked Davis which is why his TD% was so high. It's also interesting that most were on the deep offensive side of the field.

See ya!

LOL, of course it does. But it was pretty conservative at the end of last season, starting on Brady's watch. More conservative than it's been since Allen broke out. That's either one humongous coincidence or something closer to this season's reality. His offenses in Carolina were ranked 24th and 29th in Scoring and 21st and 30th in Yardage. To the original point. We can say he's not mystery meat, but he's hardly Ben Johnson either. We'll find out. Of course Cook got too many touches, but it was known when we drafted him that he was unlikely to be able to handle that workload. His collegiate max was 140, he had twice that last season, but that's about where his play began to diminish. But they continued to pound him even though his yards-per-carry average fell off by nearly 30%. So where are we placing responsibility for that miscue? McD? Beane? ?? Who was the genius that couldn't conceive that when many of us warned about it upon drafting him and some people even had it in their draft profiles? It wasn't exactly expert analysis to piece that one together. What's in Davis' dossier that suggests he's capable of playing to at least an average level in the NFL as such? Nothing in his draft profiles, so what? Moss and Sing both had greater draft profile potentials. It seems that this is where they're going. So riddle me this, since when has this been in Allen's repertoire? College or pro. The short correct answer is that it never has been. In the short-medium game, Allen's average at best and not equal to his peers. So once again, if that's true, that's why A, many are concerned, but more relevantly to the discussion, many question the use of Allen. Perhaps more importantly, how is that going to help open up the running lanes for Allen? Is it a real reach to consider that if we're running an offense like that, his lanes may be more crowded? This is common sense stuff, right? What did they say when the drafted him? What, that he'd be great in the short-medium screen game? Hardly. ALL the talk was about his strong arm and how he could make every throw even while on the move. Does that seem like the approach that they're taking? We also brought in Hines, one of the most prolific pass-catching RBs in NFL history, and you see how we used him in that regard after talking a great game in trading for him. Nada. They didn't use him at all. Singletary had better credentials in the receiving game and we just threw him overboard. Can we expect similar genius this season? It might be wise to pump the brakes emotionally in this way. Our team has a strong history under McBeane of saying one thing and doing another, quite often the polar opposite. We don't know exactly, but we have some clues. We'll see. But we can't have it both ways, that the reason for the drop in production at the end of last season, the last 30% of the season, was because Brady was still using Dorsey's offense, while on the other hand all the reason for our wins had to do with Brady's offense. Surely you can see the illogic there. Thanks, and yeah, that'd be fun. Let me know. Just note the time stamps and we can discuss further.

We all hope we're wrong. Who isn't hoping to finally win the Big one!! Contrary to the assertions of some. That's not what the forum is for however, to all agree and cheerlead. It's for discussion. You're getting warmer.

LOL Really? SMH ... why do you even bother.

Well, the thing about simply "making the playoffs" is that any number of circumstances can play into it. Think about all of the crappy teams over the years in siht divisions that made it for reasons of divisional attrition. Teams with losing records have even made it a few times, and when notably better teams, just not aligned fortunately for them, were in the league. That was the case with us in 2017. We edged out both the Ravens and Chargers, who were both fundamentally better football teams than we were that season, to the tune of 9 PPG game better in point-differential. That's huge! Suppose Rodgers goes down again. Or Tua. or for that matter Tua and Allen if you're the Jets, and Rodgers turns a pretty average season. They could easily make it at 10-7 or 11-6 because our QBs go down. NE had a divisional cakewalk throughout Brady's tenure. We've had a relative divisional cakewalk since Brady's leaving NE. As well, if four of the opponents on your schedule see their starting QBs or premier DEs, etc. go down, then that can impact standings as well. When we played the Chargers but barely beat them, they were without Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Bosa. They were hot garbage after that, but it was one of our wins Doesn't matter whether or not "we can control who we play," that's hardly earning a win. Again, we barely beat a team led by Stick, no one of consequence at WR, and a 24th ranked D. As merely one example. Anyway, making the playoffs is overrated, especially with nearly half the teams in the league making them, ... unless you're coming off of a 20-year drought era. LOL It's what you do when you get to the playoffs that matters. Having said that, there's zero excuse for a team led by Allen to even miss the playoffs.

As do I and lots of others. Here's the thing, McDefense has an MO, which has changed since he's been here, several times now, and never lasting more than a couple of seasons, and despite not always fully articulating it, which in and of itself is bizarre. He let's Allen play to his strengths in the playoffs, but Allen then has to overcome his coach, which is too much, particularly if Allen's not in Superman mode. We also all know that at some point Allen simply says F-it in games and takes the game into his own hands. That's not coaching however. That's Allen taking over. This complimentary football approach is anything but letting Allen play to his strengths, it's the opposite. So going into this season anyway, Allen won't be playing to his strengths. We also get into the roster-building aspect of it as well. Look at our roster, it's not built to cater to Allen's strengths. That even assumes that Coleman's even 80% of what people think he is. So between the two, why on earth would Allen be at his best this season. There is no known reason other than blind hope.

Thank you. It may be too early to come to a final decision, but is it too early to start connecting some dots. This obsession with "complimentary football" is worrysome and seems misplaced given that we have Allen. The point behind it all is that Brady has zero experience in the role. The odds are even greater that he's not that good than, that he is that good. Allen will make him look better than he would otherwise as he has with everyone in the role. Allen would make any OC look better than they are. But a good OC would be able to get him to play to his ceiling, not to his average or worse. Having said what you said, it's at least equally remiss to insist that Brady's the solution, again, given that this was not the case under him at the end of the season. Sure, worst case for Brady was that it was Dorsey's offense, but Brady was an integral part of it, shouldn't he have been able to make more out of it than Dorsey if he's truly the better option? Everyone said, in creating the narrative, that Brady was better in terms of getting production (from both Allen and the O) than Dorsey was. But that's been proven mathematically and factually false. So now for that narrative to be true, other supporting evidence needs to come into play. Why the plummeting of Allen's metrics towards career worst then? It makes no sense if that's the case. Again, all we are left with between now and then is to discuss it. That's an unjustifiably optimistic expectation. It would mimic Allen's best season ever, but with a game that's focused on the running game and shorter high-percentage passing game, under which Allen's efficiency metrics are his worst. It doesn't make much sense that he'll rival his career yardage and TD production with an increased emphasis on running the ball and a shorter passing game generally speaking. Right? BTW, still happy to discuss Coleman. If you go thru that video again, just note the timestamps of the great catches that he made. We can discuss further thereupon.

Wouldn't it be better though to have a good OC for a couple of seasons than never? Isn't it suspicious that the only time that Daboll's ever been good as an OC in the NFL is after Allen came into his own? Is it pure coincidence that in his other 7 seasons he's been bottom dwelling on offense as either an OC or HC? It's hardly unreasonable to ask whether Allen made him or whether he made Allen. But since Allen's had immense success without Daboll but Daboll's had no particular success apart from Allen, that's a pretty good clue. Neither Dorsey nor Brady have done anything exceptional yet. Despite Allen's tempering his metrics are on a down trend from 2020. What seems to be an issue is that McD was hired before Allen was drafted. Would Pegula have chosen McDefense had Allen predated McD? Last season there was talk amongst fans and media as to whether McD was the right man for the job, regardless of our independent discussions here. He knows this. Knowing what we know about McD, what is there to suggest that he'd go out and get a ringer of an OC when he knows that there are murmurings as to whether or not he's right for the job? In his mind he may be unwilling to hire his potential replacement. Keeping a guy like Brady (or formerly Dorsey) around, both of whom owed him for the opportunity, is a much safer move. They'll do what he wants, not what they want. We don't know for sure, but that's what the speculation was about McD v. Daboll. Either way, not getting a good or great OC because he may leave is not a good strategy if it's in favor of the pure unknown. We'll see, but there's a good chance that much of this comes out into the open this season. The over reliance on Coleman and Davis for our offense to work this season is palpable and unwise.

Luck was definitely a part of it on several planes. First, anytime that you're entirely reliant upon the unlikeliest of plays by a QB that's quite frankly very average on a good day, that alone has a huge luck component. Otherwise, I'm not sure that anyone arguing this understands how unlikely it is for a team that finished -57 in point differential, while losing to almost every good team that they played, to much less post a winning record much less make the playoffs on the merits of non-H2H tiebreakers. I'd easily wager good money that it doesn't happen again in at least a decade. It's not really a matter of playing hard. If that is the case, why did McD get less out of Taylor than Ryan did? Ryan wasn't a good coach here. There's a disconnect(s) in that reasoning somewhere. We didn't go anywhere, but again, the point is that the playoffs was our worst game from an offensive perspective, not only that season, but in how many games before or after that before Allen showed up? Going back before McD, the next closest time we scored a mere 3 points was in 2012. OK, so given the strength of our roster these days, featuring Allen and the #1 D, how do you evaluate our playoff performances under McD with Allen at QB? That's the topic that we're discussing. The regular season is pointless other than to make the playoffs, whereupon the real goal (should) start. Sure, some here have said that they're fine with losing as long as we have a team in Buffalo, but that's really not germane to the discussion either. Many expected more than 11 wins last season, or more than 11 in '21. This season is going to be very telling. We'll see how it unfolds, but it shouldn't be unexpected if by season's end there are more detractors than supporters, and after 8 seasons, for McD's MO. In the meantime, I guess all that we can do is to discuss it. What are the goalposts? Set the standard as you see and let's go from there. You pick it. ?? Otherwise, you jumped in on an exchange that was about McD v. Reid again. I put forth the data from each's first seven seasons. You ignored it and moved those goalposts. This obviously has nothing to do with that. So again, what are the goalposts? In your world. We'll go from there.

Well, OK, if you think that Aikman as a passer compares to Allen, not sure what to tell ya. Fair on Lewis, but it was Dalton that we're talking about and he "made the playoffs" often enough, which seems to be the standard here.

Not sure I'd stay in Miami proper, but check out Little Havana if you have time. That's always fun with good food.

He made the playoffs because of Dalton to Boyd. That's pretty obvious, isn't it? I mean when you have zero control over getting in ... He was dismantled in the playoffs by a former coach of ours that everyone knows wasn't any good, and who had Bortles at the helm. Under his guidance Taylor posted one of his worst few games as a Bill in the playoff game. Seems that that would be relevant. Meh, maybe not. LOL We were one of just a few teams in modern NFL history to have made the playoffs with a negative point-differential and easily the worst of those that did. We made the playoffs on a tiebreaker having absolutely nothing to do with head-to-head with two teams that also finished 9-7 but with point differentials of +92 and +83 to our -57. Those are differences of 149 and 140, or about 9 PPG. I believe that we have the distinction of having been the team with the worst point-differential ever to make the playoffs. Of our 9 wins, all but two were over anything but crappy teams with horrible records, essentially the worst teams in the league. The other two were over the 10-6 and 6th seeded Falcons and the 4th seeded 10-6 Chiefs with Alex Smith at QB. Those are all facts, I'm not quite sure how despite "having made the playoffs" they sound any good. Any former coach could have had the same luck, which is what it was, essentially pure luck, and done the same during the drought years. It's not often, never say never, but pretty close to never, that a team makes the playoffs with a point-differential of -57. I'm still trying to figure out how any growth is measured.

And Baltimore winning with Dilfer. The Raiders with Brad Johnson. The Cowboys repeatedly with Aikman, who was good but hardly great and far from Allen or not as good a passer as Kelly. The Skins with Williams, that brick-footed Rypien, or the midget Theismann, also good but far from great. Foles with the Eagles.

Thanks! But, OK, the points on the Houston game still stand. It was on the opposite end of being a coaching masterpiece. Insofar as that Jags playoff game goes, what, a coaching masterpiece there? That was one of Tyrod's all-time worst games as a starter here in Buffalo. Bottom three easily. That would seem to reinforce the point, not counter it. Right? Either way, someone floats an argument. It fails, they they move the goalposts. That fails. At what point after a wash/rinse/repeat exercise do those doing that finally at least admit that it's a possibility against all emotional fortitude in ignorance of the facts? Think about it. How seriously is anyone supposed to take the argument that McD is no different than Reid when McD in his first seven seasons is 5-6 in the playoffs, with four of those wins over wild-card teams, three featuring backup caliber QBs (Jones, Thompson, and Rudolph) and twice nearly losing otherwise, a fourth with a washed-up geriatric QB playing his last game ever, with our only quality playoff win over a team led by QB who as a rule chokes in the playoffs; ... while Reid in his first seven seasons with that underachieving McNabb as his QB went 7-5 with one trip to the Super Bowl, barely losing to Brady & the Pats, four straight trips to the NFC CG, and a 4-1 record in the Divisional round contrasted with McD's 1-3 record in the Divisional Round? Who's really supposed to consider that a valid argument? That's just plain gibberish and nonsense. People can make all of the excuses that they want to, but there's no positively arguing that they're even remotely comparable. McD's record against the Brady led Pats with Brady at the end of his career is 0-6 by an average score of 10-25 with a max offensive score of 17. Reid nearly beat them in the Super Bowl with Brady in his prime. If not for McNabb's 3 INTs they'd have won even.

LOL Boy, you're all over the place. Too bad that argument exclusively revolved around a comp to Reid. Not sure what any of the above has to do with the original statement comping McD to Reid in their first seven seasons each. Also, one correction, I'm pretty sure that it was Dalton to Boyd that dragged Tyrod Taylor to the playoffs. But let's assume the best, that season's playoff game by McD giving up a 22 points and nearly 200 4th Quarter yards after being up 16-0 with over 17 minutes to play, against a team with one noteworthy offensive skill position player was certainly a coaching masterpiece on the defensive side, wasn't it. LOL

Schottenheimer has a similar playoff record in his first seven seasons as well, 3-6 to McD's 4-5. With Kosar and DeBerg in those seasons. LaFleur is 3-4 in his five seasons as HC. ... with Rodgers and Love in his first season. But you're absolutely correct, that's the company he's in. Also, how many of those coaches featured #1, 2, or 4 Defenses regularly on top of that.

Yes, intellectually lazy if that's the extent of your research. Is it turtling, or simply being out-schemed and out-coached in the playoffs by peers that are notably better than he is, which raises the question as to how good he truly is apart from having Allen cover up a lot of the weak links. I realize that's just a term, but it seems that at that level, against the best, and where Allen's talent alone isn't enough to beat some schlep team or a good team on pure talent disparity, but only in the regular season, he's simply out-coached.