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Everything posted by PBF81
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The Myth of the Bills over-focusing on defense in the Draft and FA
PBF81 replied to folz's topic in The Stadium Wall
LMAO Yeah, sorry bout that. But since you hadn't noticed, we've had no more than two playoff games in either of the last two seasons, which feed into my points, which explain why the "sample size" is so small. You've hit on something here though that bolsters the overall point, is that fans WANT a larger sample size of postseason games too. But hey, you can only use what's available. Thanks for pointing that out. -
Not much to disagree with there, but that puts it on the coaching and on Beane, and I agree with that. BTW, I was actually defending Allen. It's difficult to tell, since we don't know the plays, the "strategy" to the extent there is any by Dorsey, Allen's audibles, the conversations between Allen & Dorsey. To that extent, while I understand what that doctor said in the interview about Allen not being able to throw shorter effectively, I noticed that he really hadn't been doing that to the extent that he had in '21. Whether that was Daboll vs. Dorsey, who knows, but he also didn't excel at it regardless. That's been a weakness of his since he's been here. I'm sure that it's correctible as Allen's pretty Brilliant. He's impressed me with his intelligence. Again, my biggest concern is that they piss him off by not doing their part to help him out, and he opts out of his contract after three more seasons. Like I implied, if that happens, good luck getting a dime for PSLs in that new stadium.
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Roger, my mistake, but the rest of the points remain. Beane can't draft otherwise. That's why we're even having this conversation. Again, we can sit here and talk 'til we both fall asleep, LOL, but we have no power to change anything, we're simply pissing into the wind. But Beane has an opportunity, perhaps his last, to stifle his critics and put up an A Draft, which is probably what it's going to take, and unfortunately for him, his picks are going to have to produce to a relatively high level as rookies. But if he fails to do so, then after 6 seasons and now his own "best" draftees rotating out, how long should he get, and there's not another position that's going to carry him like Allen did, so he's going to sink or swim on his own. Right now, without better drafting however, we're the Phillips-led Chargers, the Ryan-led Falcons, or the Fouts-led Chargers at best. ... especially since come playoff time the side of the field that Beane has pumped the greatest round 1 & 2 resources into, routinely allows opponents to score in the 30s. The franchise has an opportunity to do better. It's all going to come down to Pegula deciding how long he wants to give our OJT GM an opportunity to do that. I would strongly suggest that if Allen doesn't start getting some OL-men, that he's going to bail after the '25 season with his opt-out. Wouldn't you. That'll do wonders for our PSLs in the new stadium. Pegula needs to start thinking longer term here, on several issues.
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We should have drafted Evans instead of Watkins in 2014. Better drafting eliminates such needs. Just sayin' ...
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Well yes, BUT past regimes never even had the opportunity to draft Allen. You can only do what you can do. There hasn't been a draft where we had a top-10 pick with a QB that even approaches Allen on the board at the time we picked. Imagine that they had, put Allen on that team instead of Losman. As long as we're on the topic, let's not forget that he overlooked Mahomes, and his hand was forced into drafting a QB that season. Beane's lucky that Allen came along. It was hardly an astonishment of the imagination that we drafted a QB in a QB rich draft, we all knew that they would likely draft a QB, right. Peterman sucked. But either way, how much credit are we going to give him for drafting Allen five years ago amidst a slew of poor draft picks generally speaking otherwise. How long can Beane's reputation live off of a single draft pick. He's fortunate that he did draft Allen, we're low-end by our "Last 20 Years" standard without Allen. Also, his lack of ability to draft well is now costing Allen, both injury and wear-n-tear/abuse wise, but also by keeping the offense entirely one-dimensional. Allen is everything offensively more so than any other team we've had. He's reasonably taking heat now and has a perfect opportunity to turn an A Draft coming up. Let's see what he does. But why am I envisioning a WR in round 1, an OL-man in round 2, and an OLB/DE in round 3. He's got a lot of holes to fill, but at some point not addressing the OL adequately, and he's been far from that, is going to cost him his job. We've been drafting DLs rabidly, and shuffling WRs in and out of here annually. On the OL it's been dumpster-diving with the exception of Morse, who may not be long for the NFL anymore. Centers age out faster than any other positions. We need to draft at least two OL-men in rounds 1-3, presumably in the 1st-round. Our hand is forced at OL just as it was at QB then.
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Yeah, between "13 Seconds" last season, which was major-league WTF territory, coupled with horrific defensive performances, at home, by our illustrious #2 ranked defense nearly losing to Skylar Thompson, who let's face it, no one ever heard of before that time, and being humiliated by the Bengals allowing them to do whatever they wanted offensively, also well into WTF territory, yeah, I'd say routinely at this point. I also wouldn't call our 38 point defensive effort allowing 439 yards and 29 1st-downs to the Chiefs to end our season in '20 anything other than humiliating either on the defensive side. "Wide Right" never should have gotten to that point. We should have had that game put away much earlier. The second Cowboys game we were leading 13-6 at the half, got demolished 24-0 in the 2nd half. Yes, that was coaching. They said that Jimmy Johnson was throwing chairs around at halftime swearing up a hurricane, while Levy was reading Hemmingway quotes to our players. Go rewatch the game, watch 'em come out of the tunnel, and tell me that the delta wasn't coaching there. We had better talent than the Giants, and comparable or better talent than the Cowboys. Kelly was better than Aikman too. Either way, don't leapfrog the point, the point was that [for whatever reason] us fans went through that, and simply "making the playoffs now" is not the standard anymore. The standard is at least getting to the Super Bowl, but we can't even do that once despite having one of the top two QBs in the league.
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Funny that you mention Losman, if Allen were on that team he'd be doing better than he is now. The only talent he has that's better than what we had then is Diggs. Our OL back then was Peters, Gandy, Fowler, and Villareal. While hardly our best OL in Bills' history, it's notably better than what we have now. On the DL we had Kelsay, Williams, and Schobel. At LB we had Spikes, Fletcher, Crowell In the secondary, Whitner, McGee, Clements, and Simpson. I'd trade that roster for ours apart from Allen in a NY second. We were 7-9 that season with two 1-point losses, one 2-point loss (once to the Pats), and two 3-point losses. In three of our other four losses that season we put up only 6, 7, 7, and 20 points. That's 12-4 minimum with Allen, possibly better, and a likely division championship over the Pats who were 12-4. That's the difference between Allen. Now, remove Allen from our team now and we don't even make the playoffs and "The Last 20 Years" is still going on.
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Makes sense. The only thing that I would add is that any RB that we draft would be less effective because our OL sucks. Gotta put the horse in front of the cart there. Same regarding Allen's play, which impacts the receivers. But at the end of the day, the fact that this discussion is even out there strongly suggests that Beane ain't cuttin' it. Having said that, what all of a sudden is going to make him start cutting it, and moreover, how is more not cutting it going to correct it. Anyone with common sense knows the answer to that.
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Well, unless you think that Spencer Brown is the answer. IMO he's not far behind the trajectory that Ford took. As I see it we have needs in 4 OL spots. C, both Gs, and RT. Dawkins is signed only for two more seasons, so is Morse but it'll be surprising if he lasts the next two seasons between age/diminished play as 31 is old for a C, and injuries/concussions. Some people say that Van Roten can play C, but will he be any good, he's never started a full season at C. We've seen enough of this kind of approach to stocking our OL. Anyway, that's just my take, but you cannot neglect an entire unit for five straight seasons and expect to have a Ballard, Woolford, Hull, Ritcher OL. We have the opposite end of the spectrum, a bunch of guys that swap out every season giving Allen zero continuity in terms of chemistry with his OL. It's incredibly unfair to Allen. It impacts the RBs too. Singletary will probably do much better elsewhere than he's done here because he'll probably end up somewhere where he'll get 250 carries and log 1,200 or 1,300 yards. He's only had 20+ carries five times since he's been here, he's averaged 4.7 YPC in four seasons. They don't know how to balance their offense. Imagine what Singletary might do behind a good OL. It's beyond unfortunate the wasted and misused talent here. At least the issues with McD and Beane are bubbling up, finally. Oh, I don't know, maybe getting routinely humiliated in the playoffs with coaching in the playoffs that makes people utter angry words and which renders them speechless. Many of us watched this team go to four Super Bowls straight, lose because we were outcoached, not because we didn't have the talent to win, and simply "making the playoffs" and being preseason favorites ain't cuttin' it. Call us crazy.
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I think that they've really been trying to put the other pieces in place without having to pay through the nose for them (Free Agency), but they've simply failed. The big problem is that Allen's taking twice (if not more) the wear-n-tear that he should be if he had A, a solid and regular OL to develop chemistry with, like Kelly did, and B, relatedly, a decent running game and a coaching staff that knew how to balance the offense like that. McD clearly doesn't. If they don't correct that, put yourself in Allen's shoes, he has the choice of more abuse as he gets into the meat of his prime after the '25 season, and risk cutting his career short, or he can cut himself loose and go to a well-coached team that has a solid OL. As much as he may love Buffalo he may decide that he'd rather be in the shoes of other QBs that have more support and better coaching and a GM & scouting staff that know how to identify solid OL-men in the drafts. It's a valid concern.
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I wouldn't trade Davis. He didn't have the massive drop issues until this season. It may work its way out of his system. It's worth another year of keeping him around for sure. It's difficult to chuck that playoff performance against KC. Getting rid of him now would be hasty. If he hadn't had his drops he'd have easily been over 1,000 yards, maybe even 1,100 or 1,200. I can see him shining. Granted, his drops were of the WTF variety this season, but it's worth one more for relatively cheap for him. He's just under $3M in cap and cost. If he happens to shed the drops he'll be worth much more than that. Oliver on the other hand won't be worth what he gets, to start. Otherwise, he's in steady-state mode, we know what he is. He's a player that shows up every fourth or fift game and plays lights out, plays well in another few games, and then is invisible for a third to half his games. He's shown the same thing now for four straight seasons. It's difficult to game plan with a player like that, and not that we do any game-planning, but who knows who'll be coaching here after this season. It's better to have an average player that plays similarly all season, every game, at least you know what you're getting when he's in there.
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Assuming that you mean an entire regime change, no, I don't think so, because any good GM will easily see that our drafting hasn't been good and whether or not they do, they'll realize that they can to a whole lot better. I would think that any GM or Coach would love to come to Buffalo, particularly with a brand new stadium coming shortly after they got here. I think that it's pretty clear that McD's not getting rid of his coordinators unless they walk for other jobs. It may be good to get another GM/HC before Allen's opt-out year. We might have difficulty after that if he were to leave, and the odds of him staying would presumably be better after a season or two of working with the new coach. Our timing always sucks tho, so expect the changes at the worst possible times.
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What concerns me is that they talk a great game but don't live up to their own standards. They talk about accountability, character, etc., and McD always talks about handling things as a team afterwards. But when the Defense fails ridiculously over the past three postseasons, do they hold anyone accountable? No. They use the Safeties Coach as the scapegoat, the one position group that actually played better than any other, and without one starter completely all season, and with the other starter missing some time and not at 100% much of the rest of the time. That's not character. It's scape-goating, not coming clean, and hiding behind others. Fans and media are noticing, I'm pretty sure that the players are too. Diggs' airing of grievances and now Poyer's seeming slap in our face with favorable implications about playing for the Fins are not good signs. At the end of the day however, the team is hardly getting the most and best from what it has. "13-Seconds" and our performance against the Bengals (and Fins) both at home, make that abundantly clear. That's an ongoing and seemingly never-ending problem.
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Agreed. It says unparalleled in the description. Seems as if whomever wrote that hasn't been around to many other stadiums. Nothing about it really looks "unparalleled" to me. If you fall off the roof, free tickets to the game.
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That's how Beane's been stocking the OL since he's been here.
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Plan? Since when have we seen anything along the lines of an obvious plan? Anytime questions are asked, the answer is "Trust the Process." A plan, that's something altogether different.
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The Myth of the Bills over-focusing on defense in the Draft and FA
PBF81 replied to folz's topic in The Stadium Wall
I hear ya, but here's what pushes me over the top. I have difficulty explaining why anyone capable of allowing "13 Seconds" and repeatedly having their Defense ...,, I'm not even sure how to phrase it, but get entirely neutered for lack of a better explanation, in the playoffs, again, as a rule, not an exception, does not have terminal flaws that will either never be corrected, or will take so long to correct that the time involved to do so simply makes no sense. Remember, "Trust the Process." For how long? What, two decades? Blindly? Because we aren't even seeing a method to the madness. This is like shoot-from-the-hop central. If we saw some actual progress in "The Process," the most critical of us might agree to not call for their heads, but there is none. In fact, Beane has now lapped himself in the cap issue dept. and the team is A, not even the best it's been on their watch, and B, nowhere near a steady-state in terms of a core of players. Our core is on the cusp of leaving or aging out, not that it's even that great to begin with. Edmunds, gone, good but hardly phenominal. Poyer, aging and costing out. Excellent, but FA, draftee. Oliver, again, good not great, one year left. Von Miller, all the risks played out. He's done here. What's left? Not much. Milano at LB. Nothing worthy of note on the DL. Rousseau regressed over the last 8 games. Diggs is griping. No proven RB on their entire 6 year watch, 5 for Beane. So where exactly has this "Process" that we've been asked to trust led us? If not for Allen neither McD or Beane would still be here. They'd have served the same 3-4 year terms that their predecessors did. The Process certainly hasn't led us to the AFC CG consistently. -
The Myth of the Bills over-focusing on defense in the Draft and FA
PBF81 replied to folz's topic in The Stadium Wall
Wow, that's pretty dire. I can possibly see that though. I can't imagine that Pegula's going to allow this to continue like this much longer. Terry's preoccupied, and he tends to want to be hands off, but he also strikes me as someone that once he gets pissed and resolved, watch out. -
Seriously? LOL Come on now ... OK, put whatever numbers you want from his contract to it and change them, then ask yourself the same question. In fact, let's say Diggs for the 5 year $72M contract he originally signed with Minny. In fact let's say $10M/season for Diggs. Which is better? Jefferson 4 years for $15M Diggs 4 years for $40M My position has not changed one iota. Even at even money I'm taking Jefferson, but it's nowhere near even and when they made the trade Beane obviously knew it. Everyone knew that we would have to restructure and it was going to cost us more. Diggs had the leverage and I'm sure that it was discussed between his agent and Beane.
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And as I've mentioned a bunch of times, imagine Allen on some of those former teams, or with Lynch/Jackson for example. No question we'd have made the playoffs back then, possibly even unseated the Pats on occasion. McBeane are fortunate that they hit on that. Nothing else that they've done would have even gotten us a wild card. This team without Allen would have been low end for what we had from '96 - '17.