PBF81

OK, so let's start with LSU then. LSU's defense was below average ranking 82nd of 133 in PA, and 101st in Pass Efficiency Defense. Coleman had 11 passes thrown his way, caught 9. Add in your take after mine. I annotated the bad passes but didn't discuss them for the most part. 1 ... Short left, bad pass 2 ... Looks like he ran a decent route, but a fairly routine one for the NFL. Bad pass 3 ... This is a great play but again, a fairly routine one by NFL standards and against a zone D on a poor pass D team, and as pointed out before. The only player that had a shot at tackling him was Zy Alexander, noted for his poor tackling, and who was also wasn't exactly in position to even tackle coleman in a massive size mismatch in that zone as well. Again, I put this down as a great play, not necessarily as something that Coleman will repeat in the NFL. Great pass by Travis, whom Coleman claimed was the best QB in the Draft BTW (also concerning, LOL) in a zone, but after Alexander whiffs, it's nothing but green, with an unneeded blocker, to the EZ. 4 ... Terrible play, terrible throw. Nothing to see here. Another screen attempt however. 5 ... A 5-yard rolling out. Routine at best. 6 ... A bumbling and failed bubble-screen attempt on 1st-and-10. If they use him like that in the NFL, ... LOL 7 ... A quite catchable drop just across the 1st-down line on 1/15. Unimpressive 8 ... Great contested grab 1-on-1. Impressive play 9 ... 5 yard bubble-screen for a gain of 5. Nothing at all impressive there. 10 ... This is one of his few notable man-on-man plays. No separation here, but a good contested catch downfield on a size mismatch. 11 ... Another failed bubble-screen on 2/3 for 0 gain. We can credit the crap play-call for it, but that's what he ran quite often. 12 ... Backfield crossing route on a play that typically won't work in the NFL. Nothing particularly special there otherwise, particularly for a large WR like him. 13 ... Great grab in the corner EZ for the TD. Perfect throw it should be added. This was his best game easily and the first of the season, and the one that everyone defers to for purposes of substantiating how good he is. After that game he posted 41 catches for 536 yards, for an average in the remaining 11 games of 3.7 catches for 48 YPG. I count three notable plays in this game that were attributable to individual skill. (8, 10, and 13) But again, I also discount it slightly given that LSU had a garbage pass D, which ranked 121st of 133 in passing yards allowed and 105th in Opponent Passing Rating allowed.

Cool, and let's just skip the plays where the ball was way out of the ballpark and he had zero chance of catching it. I know that the majority here loved to blame Davis for those, but in fairness it's not the receiver's fault. ... unless it was a blatantly wrong route or cut or something like that. I don't recall a lot if any of those re: Coleman. Splash plays are good, but out of the ordinary ones is what we're looking for, not ones that JAG WRs can make under the same circumstances. That's what's nice about Youtube, people do the work for you so that all you have to do is review. Years ago you could write to the school and they'd give you side/EZ views of every player on O or D, for free, all you'd have to do is ask, ... and tell 'em you're doing a draft review for publishing. LOL I'm not sure what happens if you simply ask. But now so much is on YT. And yes, your own eyes. That was originally my challenge, for people to watch all his plays and see whether or not it passes the sniff test contrasted with the narrative(s), particularly those narratives here, which always seem to grow once we draft a player. LOL It did. I didn't know much about Coleman before the Draft. I also didn't know much about any of the WRs. Sure, I'd perused a few dozen draft profiles, and in the case of any of the half-dozen or so WRs that I thought would be available for us, also looked at their stats (in light of opponents) and game logs, etc. (i.e. not MHJ, LOL) Unlike everyone else, I don't claim to be knowledgeable in depth about the top-100 +/- players in the Draft. LOL I do the research in much depth after the Draft. Much easier to do in-depth research on three or four players than the time-involved impossibility of doing it for the top third of the draft. LOL But the narrative was about what a beast he was in contested catches despite not being a burner, which IMO is what we needed, and not just a 200 yard/season burner, but one that would be capable, next season if not this one, of putting up 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs. Either way, few claim that he's a #1 with that potential, even here. But as I watched that video, it struck me all the passes in traffic that he dropped or otherwise couldn't catch. PFF wrote that piece that I posted above with his "contested catch" numbers compared to other WRs that are not noted for "contested catches," and he ranked poorly against them. So my first question was, why the hype if his metrics are subpar. That's when I decided to look for myself, at every play, and database it all. When I have time, I'm going to make a breakdown video of them all in varying groupings. I'll probably create a Youtube channel to put 'em on since they'll be too big to post directly. But the cats of contested catches, great catches, bubble-screen/screen plays, etc. Don't even include the uncatchable ones. In fairness we can dismiss those as being irrelevant. How about if we focus on Catch, Drop, and Contested? Essentially, let's in essence look for plays that will work in the NFL against NFL caliber competition, plays that he'll contribute something on. On a side note, I did count, of his 50 catches, 16, a third, were caught behind the LoS, which is also concerning. That leaves 34 catches all season, with 11 of 'em having been made against LSU and Syracuse, that were "downfield," leaving precious few on a per-game basis for the other 10 games on average. 2.3/game that is. My general assessment is that we have a very Gabe Davis type WR without the ability that Davis had to go deep. Davis too was a good contested catch WR. He also had a notably better senior season on the opposite end of the scale as Coleman. Both played 12 games. Davis had 7 games of 98+ yards, 10 of 68+, 5 of 106+, and 3 of 151+. Coleman had 2 games of more than 86, 9 games of 66 or fewer. Davis also had nearly twice the yards. Both were the #1 WRs on their teams. I suspect, without evidence, that McBeane were trying to replace Davis, whom despite fans not liking the guy, Allen and they seem to have loved. Two things I'll add, first, his games against LSU, whose Defense was below-average and whose passing Defense was even worse, Syracuse, whose passing Defense was below-average, and to a lesser extent Clemson, which had a good defense, carry his profile. After that though, it's difficult to find a game that should be considered great or even close. So essentially we drafted a WR with 9 unimpressive games, and 2 impressive ones and one more leaning impressive. The second thing, it's always concerning when the personality of a player runs away with the narrative without the on-field production to back it up, in this case as a completely untested rookie. Last season it was Sherfield in a notably lesser context. People, understandably to a limited extent, elevate expectations based upon a player's soft traits and characteristics. So anyway, in the following post I'll run through his LSU passes in detail and we'll go from there. Thanks again!!

LOL, they were all hilarious. The one with Madden losing his head over Favre. 😭

Those Bang Cartoons were the best. Do you remember the one about Bledsoe? LMAO

Doesn't alter the fact that talk is cheap though.

We'll see, but he was drafted by the Bears, that's not a good harbinger. Reminds me of this cartoon from years ago;

LOL, McDermott's been talking about a lot of stuff for 7 seasons so far. It's time for something to materialize, whatever it is, in something more than regular season fashion. He now has someone, another person, running half the team, that's both light on NFL experience and with the incredibly limited experience he has, it has not been good any excuses aside. One way or another, it's going to be an interesting season.

There was a big hubbub a decade or so ago, I recall reading a piece about how once tickets for an event go on sale "publicly," other companies that were owned by Ticketmaster as subsidiaries, bought the tix en masse, particularly all the front rows and top seats for concerts and the like, in a matter of a few minutes electronically, and then put them up for resale with all the fees etc. Don't know whether they ever did anything about it, but recall reading about it.

LOL, they've become the scalpers. All nice and "legal" too.

Thanks! I'm a little confused however, it's not all clear. For example, what does this mean? Also, it just hit me, when I began this, it was never my intention to get into whether or not Coleman can separate, which appears to be the meat-n-potatoes of the contentions of many here to my having pointed that out. It's clear that we all have different definitions of separation. Mine is exactly what everyone complained about re: Diggs, whether accurate or not, and is the classic definition of being able to separate from a cover DB/CB on a man on man route. What it isn't is an ability to find soft spots in coverage, which Beasley was great at. I'll also defer to just about every draft profile out there including these three from nfl.com, cbssports.com, and pff; PFF the lack of agility in his game limits his route tree and ability to separate from defensive backs. Those who love those alpha-type receivers will be big fans, but his inability to consistently separate means he won't be for everyone. A post-draft piece by some Trevor Sikkema on PFF has this in it; His evaluation is a test of how much scouts prefer contested-catch receivers to athletic separators. NFL.com, which pencils him in as an average starter eventually, otherwise, from his Weaknesses there; Press coverage can blanket his release and catch a ride. Below-average acceleration getting out of breaks and cuts. Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches. Needs to play through downfield corners to secure catch space. Then there's this piece on CBSSports which says this; https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-draft-buyer-beware-on-bo-nix-keon-coleman-and-these-other-top-prospects/ And while Coleman doesn't look 4.61 slow on film, he's nowhere near burner territory. As a separator at any level, the Michigan State turned Florida State product struggles. Against man coverage, zone -- didn't matter. Then there's his play in traffic, where he's supposed to thrive at over 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds. In 2023, he came down with the catch on 10 of his 33 contested-catch scenarios. Not ideal. Far from. Also, if you haven't read it, this piece at PFF is also excellent; https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect Either way, the only group of people that I know that claim that Coleman separates resides here, contrary to a litany of analysis otherwise. So let's move on to anything but separation. For those that want to think he can separate, great. I'm happy for them. I see what those draft reviews see, and that's also consistent with the forum's draft expert Gunner. When I originally posted that video, it was meant as a general analytical tool to challenge, either corroborate or rebut, or both, the draft narratives. So let's focus on anything but separation. Contested catches, hands, etc. I'll touch on all your points and we'll go game-by-game otherwise. Reasonable? Otherwise, there are a lot of abbreviations in your summary, I can't make them all out.

That for sure, but I wouldn't dismiss the other.

How about a light behind the goal posts? Maybe balloons and confetti.

It's waaay too easy for the officials to control NBA games in favor of Vegas.

Where'd you get the data for how successful DART was, both for us as well as league-wide? That would be interesting. Also, in the video it says that DART is good for teams with athletic Tackles, do we consider Dawkins and Brown to be particularly athletic? Brown certainly doesn't appear to be particularly athletic per se. It also says "DART is a good solution and wrinkle for Zone Scheme teams and offenses that are having trouble with penetration and other gap scheme plays." Is that us? Granted, we had zero injuries to our OL last season which we cannot assume this season, but it seems that we didn't have any particular consistent difficulty with penetration as such, to the contrary it seems. Here's an interesting piece that I found while poking around for more info on the topic, it's up to right around the transition from Dorsey to Brady, but the metrics up to that point were good, as the piece points out. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/11/9/23952119/the-offensive-enigma-of-the-2023-buffalo-bills-nfl-analysis As to this season, it'd be nice to see Allen & the offense doing what Allen does best, but that likely won't happen for several reasons, primary being that we don't have the receiving talent to achieve that to that extent. It would also be nice to have someone work with Allen to get him to understand the value of the high-percentage passing game, but the time to have done that best was the past four years, not now when we have no "field stretchers" generally speaking and with what will likely be more claustrophobic defenses. If leadership hasn't been able to do that in Allen's five seasons of starting, it's probably not an odds-on bet that it'll happen this season. It would also be nice to ditch the overly conservative offensive approach defined by our fearless leader's complimentary football approach. Focus on the O, not the D and running game in relying on controlling the game. Again, that also doesn't seem likely to happen.

I'll engage, I must've missed it. Apologies there if so. I had a deluge of emotionally charged replies this a.m. I didn't even bother responding to a bunch. As to All-22 I tried to sign up last year, but something about DAZN said that it wasn't available in my country (the US obviously) and it wouldn't let me sign up. If you have a workaround I'd be tremendously grateful for it! I'll look at those time-stamped plays right now. ... ... To start, review the entire video when you have time. As I've said, I'm going to splice the video up into varying sections, but that'll take much time that I don't have right now. This is a busy time of the year for me. 7:11 ... No, I don't see any separation here. What's there is Coleman going OTM into zero coverage except for a S deep. Which defensive player (by number) do you see him separating from? It's a crap pass, can't blame him for that, but when it's thrown the S is right there with him, not separated. So no, not seeing it at all. Explain further in detail if you would. 014 ... Again, not seeing anything resembling separation here. On this play, 1st-and-10, the ball's snapped at the 8:01 mark and thrown 2 seconds later. To start, that's not even really much time to separate, but moreover, if you look at the DBs on that play, all of 'em, are way back. Three are a yard in front of the 1st-down line, the S is 16-yards off of the LoS. Coleman's wide left, he begins his slant inward about 5 yards out, at which time the DB covering him (#24, Zy Alexander) starts moving forward from about 10/11 yards out after having backpeddled to start the play. He attempts to reverse his momentum but that's futile, which is blatant, as Coleman's momentum is laterally, not downfield/flying. Again, that's more of a defensive alignment thing, not any separation. After the catch he's got a LB and another DB (#3) that have to completely alter their momentum as well, which is also futile. He jukes that last DB (#15) out of his jock, but that's not separation either. After that for the next 22 yards there's nothin' but green between him and the EZ, which is why his Sr. teammate Winson Wright (#1) is holding up his hand signaling TD essentially. I've spelled this out elsewhere here in similar detail. So again, that doesn't qualify as separation. It's taking advantage of an open field and slack coverage. 18:56 ... Same here. What anyone watching this play should notice is that for 12/13 yards the DB is on him quite nicely. It's only 13 yards out from the LoS Coleman makes a move that creates that shift in direction which is what I suppose creates some separation, but it was not speed that did it, not in the least. The DB (Jaden Harris, #7 for the Canes this past season) bites inside while Coleman goes outside. Coleman gains a yard or two on him, so yes, separation there, but as the play unfolds Harris closes that gap too. Another thing that you should look at when evaluating players in this fashion is whom they're up against mano-a-mano. I have yet to see a prominent Draft Expert, or any draft analyst, do this. In this case Harris (#7 this past season) was a red-shirt freshman, not the type of talent that Coleman's going to see in the NFL. It's one of the first things I look for in doing draft reviews of players. If their highlight reels are full of plays against opposing players that have little or zero chance of making the NFL, or otherwise as backup/practice squad players, then that's critical to note. One thing that I noticed about Coleman on the data that I had, is that opponents often match him up against inexperienced or not so good DBs while his teammates drew the better coverage guys. That says something. Otherwise, it seems that our definitions of separation are different, but I'm open to yours. That's a whole lot of detail about those plays and a lot more than simply saying he got separation. Just sayin'. OK, well that's just wrong, so no sense in discussing the rest. I had no idea who Coleman even was. I didn't know whether to be excited or not other than Draft Profile rankings. I've put out my very extensive (particularly relatively) info. Believe otherwise if you will. I'm not going to argue my past success and accolades or other aspects of that with you. Again, I don't care. Fine, I'm entirely wrong, I get it. LOL Really, I don't care. My takes are what my objective analylsis tells me. This notion that I had some preconceived bias against Coleman there isn't a shred of evidence for and is childish otherwise. BTW, even Gunner's not big on Coleman. Take it up similarly with him. That's hedging, but OK. Noted.

BTW, is this the same Weissman that had WR Jameson Williams 14th overall on his Big Board and WR Treylon Burks at 17th in 2022? The answer to that is yes. Let's just hope we get a whole lot more production from Coleman than those to have put up. Huge disappointments both of 'em any excuses aside. Point being, just because he's a scout does not mean that he's got it all correct.

I haven't seen you point out anything in the video to argue the point. All you do is argue what I say about the video. So how is that different from the criticism that you lay out? Either way, we've been through this you and I. You don't like to look at facts or evidence much less discuss them. It's all purely argumentative with your only basis seemingly being me and my takes without any specific factual counters. I don't see much point in continuing. I'll be happy to give you a thumbs up on your posts to me and leave it at that henceforth.

I'm sorry.

You didn't point them out. Which ones, specifically. One play at at time. Other than the few that I agreed with, which other ones do you consider to be "out of the ordinary?" Let's assess them together.

That runs counter to what even his draft profiles state. What's that dimension, specifically?

Where is Mr. Weisman's detailed analysis? I don't care about his profile, dig up his past draft profiles, reviews, and statements about how good players will be in the NFL, all of them from rounds 1 and 2, then let's talk. You also know zero about my background and all the those same types of positions that I've challenged in the past, publicly, and have been correct. Very often to the extent that a year or two later I'd gotten e-mail apologizing for the filth sent my way via e-mail expressing similar thoughts. I'm quite happy to stand on my positions. They're more accurate on the handful that I've actually done than the big name draft people easily. People do not understand the amount of time it takes to evaluate a player. As mentioned, I've spent the equivalent now, in one, two, and three hour segments, reviewing Coleman, very little of which I've posted here. To do that for several hundred players, even 50 or 100, is impossible within a few short months prior to the Draft. So most of the people putting up things simply regurgitate what others have said. After all, if Weisman is wrong, so what, "everyone was wrong," "everyone thought [blah blah blah]..." So few people digress with the mainstream or put their stuff out there for criticism. I don't mind. We'll see where this is this fall. But already McD admitting that Coleman isn't going to contribute much this season, ... LOL ... I mean really? Is that really what we need right now, a WR that isn't prepared to contribute this season? At some point people need to start seeing through this idiocy that's holding our team back from being much better than it is. Either way, I don't care. Just floating my analysis. But honestly, citing the guy as a scout, ... I got into it directly with a scout years ago and he ended up being entirely wrong also. It was an amicable exchange, but just because someone's a scout, look at all the busts and horrible picks, they're all a result of scouts' input. All. The funny thing is, if Coleman really isn't very good and his play does not translate to the NFL as I've suggested, no one here is going to point out that I was correct, but more importantly for the reasons stated. They'll simply say what everyone else does, that everyone was wrong and thought [blah blah blah], and we'll wash, rinse, repeat the exercise next year. Either way, dig up the guy's past stuff and let's evaluate how accurate he's been for round 1/2 picks. I already know what it's going to be. Then shut the forum down. LOL I'm not merely talking. I provide data and substance for my views. Most of what gets posted here is superficial and emotional and narrative based stuff, just like everywhere on just about every topic in the world. The majority of the substance posted here, or anywhere for that matter, is what others say, but often offer little substance for or superficial substance. That's exactly the case with Coleman. Even Gunner has expressed concerns over Coleman. No one has to read it. For the handful of people that engage with any substance it's fun. What isn't fun is debating facts v. opinions. Right?

Correct! I'd say that the majority forum sentiment is that he's a surefire improvement, to date at least. This is critically important. Daboll and McD clearly weren't on the same page either. There were known blatant issues between the two. Then it also occurs with Dorsey. Now Brady, someone that's easier to control, obviously, based upon how Brady ran things once he took over, is in charge. There's a common theme there, one that many are loath to admit. This is a rhetorical question, but at what point is that common theme on the chopping block. Thanks again for engaging!!

And interestingly, many here were higher on Foster than they are on Coleman. Knox has averaged about 400 yards and 5 TDs/season here, hardly prolific. Even more people said the same about QBs like Young, Leaf, Shuler, Russell, Bradford, Couch, and WRs like Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, Jaelen Reager and many more. So what. Narratives are a dime a dozen in our society. Oh, well that settles it. LOL "They" said the same about Spiller and Watkins, even more, did they not? And if the stocks you and I had picked back in the '90s had worked out like Microsoft did, we'd each have our own island somewhere. I'm talking about him as if the narrative doesn't match reality. It doesn't. Just about everything you've floated is mass opinion. Nothing but narrative. Here's an exercise for you, can you think of any times that the narratives for draftees didn't quite pan out? What's the more likely scenario season to season, that every 1st round draft pick works out? Because just about every team is saying the same things right now. Just like we said about Watkins, Spiller, Oliver, Elam, Rousseau, Ford, AJE, Lawson, Ragland (he was HUGE, what a gem in round 2, LOL), Darby, etc., etc. I can't look the other way on our picks simply because I'm a fan.

Acceptance. That's the 5th and final stage of the Five Stages of Grief.

Agree, of course it does. Thanks on Josh, but he played worse under Brady, which few seem to acknowledge. At least metrically. As to Brady's time in Carolina, here's the thing, posting horrific stats with less than stellar talent in no ways suggests, or even approaches suggesting, that with good talent, he'll be good much less great. Bridgewater wasn't terrible, he simply wasn't much better than average on a good day. Darnold was destined to be awful before he was ever drafted. Never saw the interest in him. If Brady were any good there, it's hardly a reach to expect him to take an offense with Bridgewater, DJ Moore, Robbie Chosen who posted his best season ever that year, and Samuel, whom many claim will be a difference-maker here, to something other than the 24th ranked offense there. 24th, ... to add some perspective there, Chicago was 23rd with Foles and Trubisky starting in Chicago, and Washington with three different starting QBs that season, none of which are considered to be anything but backup caliber, was 25th. It only gets worse from there. Well, who knows what the Beane plan was, or is for that matter. Those guys rarely come clean, and we're always signing players saying one thing but then doing another. Consider, we just unloaded Singletary, who did what they're expecting Davis, a 4th round rookie with fewer collegiate accolades, to now do, after jettisoning Singletary while saying that they were going with Cook & speed. Now it's different again. And to rehash, we traded for Hines, who's one of the most prolific pass-catching RBs in the league right now, and was, stating how he'd really bolster our passing game, and threw passes to him at a rate of a fourth of his career average. We also had our entire OL perfectly healthy all season. I wouldn't bet a plug nickel that that happens again. Right now our issue is going to be talent, and scheming to get the most of it. It all starts with Allen. So we'll see.