PBF81

Which has pretty much been my point all along.

Slot would have been Beasley and McKenzie. Beasley had 2 targets and 2 catches. McK had 65 targets and 42 catches. 67 targets 44 catches total. I'm assuming, given Kincaid's known lack of speed, that 10 ypr is about right. So if he takes all of the slot targets/catches he should have around 500 yards. So 120 for Diggs, say your 60 for Kincaid, the same 48 (say 50) for Knox, with an increase of 30 completions, that would leave 70 for Davis, Shakir, Hasty, Sherfield, and Shorter. Sound about right?

It'll definitely be interesting to see how they use him given that they just gave Knox the 6th biggest contract on the team. Over the past three seasons here are the number of catches for our TEs: 2022: 57 2021: 58 2020: 40 Last season our top 7 WRs & TEs (non-RB receivers) caught 270 passes. Four of them caught 246 of those. Add 30 for 300, with Diggs getting say 120 of those, how would the other 180 receptions be distributed? That's an average of 30 for the other 6 receivers. Pretty rhetorical, but it'll be interesting to see who the odd receivers out will be.

I don't see him making the final roster. I'm considering a variety of factors that I haven't provided the background for. As I also said, he doesn't add anything that we don't already have. He doesn't, and he's not going to be improving. He's 33. Anyone that's watched the NFL for any length of time and paid attention knows that 33-year old (or older RBs) typically don't do much. You know that. I'm sure that there are exceptions that you can find, but generally that's the case, even for the best RBs. Here are last season's leaders, and do it for any season. Sort on age and look at the RB production. Murray was by a country mile the only one older than 31 that did anything, and the 31-year old was Cordorelle Patterson, a converted WR to RB. If he makes any kind of a difference this season at 33, it'll be an exception and against the odds. It seems to me that we could do something greater with that roster spot. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/rushing.htm#rushing_and_receiving::rush_yds He obviously wouldn't be used with any frequency as a receiver OOTB, so that's not really a role for him given that we barely used two RBs that specialize in that for that purpose last season. Remember, Beane brought Hines on for that expressed purpose, and he's an outstanding receiver OOTB. He had 5 catches after we got him. We were all scratching our noggins over that. Cook, another RB with great hands, averaged just over 1/game. Likewise, that was one of the things touted about him when we drafted him. So that's not why they signed him. As to rushing, we drafted Cook to be our speed back, Harris is now there to be our 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust guy and at the forefront of his prime. So that's not Murray's role either. So whatever he does it'll be either for injury or depth. That doesn't spell significant playing time. So that's why I asked what your definition of "regular season playing time" was. If all he's going to do is carry the ball on average once a game and be in on a number of snaps otherwise, sure, I suppose that's "regular season playing time," but that would then also fully corroborate my position that this is a nothing signing, wouldn't it? I could be way off, maybe he'll end up being our starter, but knowing what we know about RBs out of their prime, I'd guess that's not going to be the case. As to parsing, you're the one that made the offer based upon "regular season playing time," which could mean anything, not on whether or not he makes the roster, which I have zero control over. Duke Johnson "got regular season playing time" last season. Just sayin'. Given our personnel management it wouldn't surprise me if he did, I'm simply not expecting it. There are a bunch of players now that we've signed or possibly even drafted that won't be on the 53. That's normal. Let's make a friendly then. See what happens. I don't care if I lose the wager, all the better if it improves the team. I just don't see him doing much if he does make the roster. And if he was really that good some team would have picked him up by now. Go Bills!!

That depends upon the definition of "regular season playing time." Two plays each game technically qualifies. Otherwise, sure, offline I'd be more than happy to consider it depending that definition. All I said was that he won't make any significant impact. I never said he won't play if he's on the team. So define that and let's talk offline. If it works out I'll donate my winnings to charity in your name. Would be good either way, a win-win for you.

I would question two things therein. You say that Allen's injury was worse than we know, but he didn't have offseason surgery. So how do we know, given that, and assuming your assessment, that it's not fully healed? I'm not sure that we do. Remember, some doctor professionally stated that he couldn't make the shorter throws because of it. What if it's not 100% still? Do we know that it is? If not, that would definitely impact the use of Kincaid and the throws to the RBs, apparently as it did last season after the injury. I'm not saying that it isn't fully healed, but also don't know that it is. And if it isn't, I doubt that the team would come out and provide that intel to our opponents. Secondly, you have Von back in there, but he's coming off of an injury that's notable for taking some time to fully recover from, in any sport. White's was similar and he was merely a shell of himself last season upon returning. He has yet to show that he can rebound back to anywhere close where he was. He wasn't even average when he got back. I expect that he will, but until he does ... Factor in that Von's 35 this season, I think it's a bit of a reach to assume that he'll be the impact player that he was during the first ten games of last season. Don't you? "Experience" or "presence" only counts for so much. I do see all the pieces in place for our offense to be prolific, to counter whatever drop the D might make. The wild-card there being what you implied, Dorsey's development. As always, time will tell.

So essentially what I originally said, that he brings nothing to the table that don't already have. Not sure why you argued that then. I'm in agreement with the above with the exception that I question his age, at 33, and what he has left. That's a very typical age for RB performance to plummet. Thanks for clarifying.

Dorsey has to figure out how to use RBs to begin with. Agree tho that he's essentially an injury case signing. As such it's fine. It's not something that's going to improve our chances of winnning games however, again, particularly given the underutilization of our RBs as it is. The play of our offense is going to largely hinge upon whether Dorsey can sort out what he's doing and ensure that it fits the offensive personnel that we have. He was not good at that last season. Significant improvement will be required.

Yes, I'm familiar with his role on other teams, but as stated, he's 33. That's old for a RB contrary to what opinions may be otherwise. I'm not sure that I see us carrying 5 RBs, and again, other than for injury insurance, I'm not seeing what he adds given our offense, which already underutilizes RBs. I still say that there's a good chance he's not even on the 53 come opening day. There's an awful lot of defensive posturing on this signing as if it has any significance in achieving wins. The size of the contract says something. That is all. And BTW. 4.2 ypc is incredibly average. FWIW

So you're saying what precisely, that none of our other RBs are tough? Or consistent? Just to clarify.

Different style, but what, a 33-year old RB with marginal prior performance. Not sure what, if anything, he actually adds.

I don't see him making the final roster. He brings nothing to the table that we don't already have. 33 years old too.

Fully agree, but we need to win the division though. On paper we're better than all three divisional opponents and we have Allen. It'd be tough to explain losing the division to the Fins or Jets. Good call!

Good defense but their offense is quite dicey. Point taken though, we won't be able to sleep on too many teams on our schedule. While the home schedule is light, the Jets now have Rodgers and we split with both Miami and the Jets last season. Who knows what the Pats will bring, but Belichick is better than McD. Jax came on strong to finish their season 7-2, Lawrence will be in his third season and made strides last season. The Raiders now have Garoppolo and the Giants seem to be up and coming too, Daboll will want to win that game. The road schedule could be problematic.

... and our players' lives are threatened due to deliberate attempts by Miami to create dangerous playing conditions in that way. That's ridiculous, and what's it going to take, a heat-stroke collapse sending one of our linemen to the hospital and out for the season, or worse, to get the league involved. Yeah, that'll be a great look, NFL player dies at Hard Rock Stadium due to unreasonable dangerous life-threatening conditions contrived by Dolphins. Miami should be made to play at home in their own intolerable heat conditions at least once every September. Perhaps have to alternate sides of the field arbitrarily in September and October. I guess that's what they think that they need to win games. Sad really. Definitely not sportsmanlike, quite the opposite in fact. If there were any justice we should be allowed to freeze their benches when they come here. There is no equivalent way to take advantage of the cold given the league rules.

You are correct. Had the Bengals continued to move the ball the way that they had prior to Hamlin's collapse, they would have racked up a ton of points. Who knows whether we would have kept up in a track meet as such. But given how their D manhandled us in the playoff game it certainly leaves enormous doubts. As to the rest, you're on point. Here's my take, every offseason people say that Allen "doesn't have the weapons," despite whom we add, which always seems to be grand prior to the season but by season’s end Allen “needs weapons” again. My problem in all of it is that we haven’t made optimal use of the weapons that we have had whether it be under Daboll or Dorsey with the latter being worse, probably because he’s an OJT OC although I have my doubts that he has the intellectual/strategic wherewithal to actually put it all together optimally. This season will reveal definitively what the case is, Dorsey has absolutely no excuses whatsoever for not putting up a well-balanced #1 or #2 offense. Neither the Chiefs nor the Bengals have the breadth and depth of offensive talent at the skill positions that we have. After that, our problem hasn’t been during the regular season where we’ve averaged 12.3 wins over the past three seasons en route to a division title every year. Our problem has been the postseason, and therein it’s been the defense, which played to #1 or #2 levels, but then drops off in the postseason and where we cannot advance past the divisional round with one exception three seasons ago. It’s a fact that it’s been one of the worst scoring defenses in the postseason the past two years. But also overlooked is the fact that Diggs has also disappeared in the post season. In four of our last five playoff games, discounting the Miami game featuring Skylar Thompson this past fall, Diggs has averaged 4 catches for 45 yards and hasn’t had a single TD in any of them. That’s hardly optimizing Diggs. To add some perspective, in those same four games Davis has averaged 3 catches for 69 yards and 1.25 TDs. And Davis’ game vs. Miami was identical to Diggs’ except that he posted a TD. Knox in those same four games has averaged 4.5 catches for 51 yards and ¾ of a TD. Beasley in those same four games averaged just over 4 catches and 52 yards, also no TDs, slightly better than Diggs. So questions exist as to why they don’t get more out of Diggs in our most important games. One has to look at the OC. We also haven’t made optimal use, far from it in fact, with our RBs. People discount Singletary, but there have been times where he’s tearing it up and we stop running him, why? That’s not good coaching. He’s perfectly capable seemingly of carrying the ball 250-300 times/game. If he had gotten 250 carries, at his 4.7/carry, he’d have logged 1,175 rushing yards, and assuming a few more TDs, along with his 280 receiving assuming no more catches there, he’d have ranked 6th in rushing just ahead of Dalvin Cook, and 14th in yards-from-scrimmage. Instead, everyone’s screaming to get Dalvin Cook here. If Singletary had posted those numbers would everyone be saying that we needed a RB? He’s better than Harris. No RB that gets 177 carries is going to post impressive stats. But back to the D, I took the liberty of breaking down our pass defense insofar as the pressure stats go, before and after Von Miller went out, in the Detroit game. I didn’t count that game, and there were 10 prior to it and 5 after it, exactly half. We played Tagavailoa both before and after, but otherwise, the four QBs faced “after” were Mac Jones twice, Mike White, and Justin Fields. I think we can agree, low end all three. And keep in mind, some of the QBs in the first 10 games were Rodgers, Mahomes, Cousins, Jackson, Stafford, and Tannehill. The low-end ones were Pickett, Brissett, and Wilson, the latter three similar to those in the last five games. There was no significant difference in average completions or attempts, and as expected given the low-end caliber of QBs, the passing yards dropped by about 10%, 22 YPG, but here’s where it gets interesting. Opponent TD production, again, with those QBs, increased by 16.7% while INT generation dropped by 38.5%, again, against those low-end QBs. Sack generation dropped by 21.4% while QB Hits dropped by 26.2%. That’s with essentially the unit we’ll be fielding this season minus Edmunds, a very veteran MLB like him or not. This season however, here are some of the QBs that we’ll be facing: Hurts, Daniel Jones, Prescott, Lawrence, Burrow, Rodgers (twice), Tagavaloa (twice), Mahomes, Herbert, and Garoppolo. A bunch of those teams have great defenses as well and some have excellent running games to balance out their offenses. Six of those QBs, two of whom we face twice, ranked among the top-11 in passing TD production. But here’s the thing, if we extrapolate our pass-rush stats out for 17 games, here’s how we would have ranked based upon last season’s rankings: 18th in passing TDs allowed 12th in INT generation 23rd in Sack generation 24th in Sack % 26th in QB Hits As anyone can see that’s way below average. But why should that change this season? Sure, we get Miller back, coming off of major knee surgery, and at the age of 35. While came back from similar last season and was a shell of his former self last season. If he doesn’t take a huge step up this season, and I anticipate that he will, then it could be very bad defensively against the QBs and offenses that we’ll be facing, on teams many of which have great running games and balance. It’s not wise to expect much from Miller anymore. That acquisition was a high-risk high-reward signing that unfortunately didn’t play out favorably for us due to his injury. It is what it is however. Ultimately, the point is that it’s foolish to expect a #1 or even a top-10 defense again with who-knows-what in the middle of our D, namely the LBs. Milano can’t do the job of the entire linebacking unit and it’s ridiculous to expect anything more than average play there otherwise, at best. Our pass rush is below average without Miller playing at the level that he did last season, our linebacking unit is an enormous question mark, and until further notice we don’t have a single above average CB unless White’s play gets back to even close to where it was or one of the others makes a sizable leap. The strength of our D is Poyer and Hyde, both 32, and both with injury issues that are not 100% resolved. Hyde’s, per his own statements, appears to be chronic despite whether it keeps in off the field or not, and unless I missed it, Poyer did not get offseason surgery for his knee. At the end of the day, why would this defense play better in the playoffs than the ones prior to it, leaving that as a rhetorical question. Not one of the four contestants in the conference championship games finished with less than a 16th ranked (KC) scoring D, or 12th (KC) yardage D. Cincinnati, Philly, and San Fran were all well into the top-10. The worst scoring D otherwise that advanced to the Divisional Round was 17th. (Giants) Those are the roadblocks to a championship before us. I’m just not sure that we’ll be there on D this season. We’ll need some luck with injuries and if Milano were to go down I quite honestly don’t’ see how our D doesn’t drop to well below average all around. We’ll see, time will tell, but it looks like we’re in for a lot of track-meet games.

34:00 minute mark? If so, doesn't appear that he ever got a foot on the ball. LOL Another at 1:41:00 ... 12 yards, second of the game he said.

Not sure that's really fair between Edmunds and Milano though. MIlano only came to be top-end the past two years, at the age of 27/28, and in his 5th & 6th seasons. Edmunds came on too in his 5th this past season, but at the age of 24. He's barely into his prime. That's the problem with drafting players that are 20. He was the youngest player in the league in his rookie season. I think we'll see a much better Edmunds in Chicago this season. IMO they should have found a way to keep him, particularly since they just drafted over Knox whom they just extended at high cost. I'm actually wondering if Beane is going to try to trade Knox now. Unfortunately those reasons have rarely panned out the way he intended. It took both Milano and Edmunds four seasons to develop. Beane doesn't have four seasons to wait, especially if Kincaid doesn't turn into an immediate impact player.

Beane traded down for 6 total picks so that he wouldn't have been the only GM in Bills' history to have only 5 picks.

I don't recall. I have no idea BTW, just asking the question. I mean we drafted this WR Shorter from Florida that everyone's going bonkers over, but in addition to him and numerous others on the roster, I don't know where they're all going to fit. You only need so many STs WRs, eh. We'll see. On a tangent though, our OL could be much better of Torrence is the real thing and McGovern is as they say. Bates can play C if Morse gets hurt, Dawkins is solid despite some being down on him, so if Brown can step up, particularly with four other decent OL-men next to him, if Dorsey can avoid f'ing things up then we could very well have the #1 offense. I don't have the same hopes for our D, but having the top offense or even a well-balanced #2 would be great.

We don't know that yet, even if true, I'm sure it'd be a big drop off from Milano to a rookie. More concerned about the other starting positions tho. Milano has no significant injury history.

There a lot of WRs on the team now. Which won't make it? Diggs, Davis, & Shakir will be there. Just signed Hasty & Sherfield. Two TEs, one supposedly playing slot now.

That's right, good point, we don't know what to expect. But we can at least use last season's info for a guide. Only three of our WRs/TEs had more than 42 catches, only one had more than 48. The fourth one, McKenzie, had 42. After him, 10, 8, 6, 4. We have Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Hasty, Sherfield, Knox, and Kincaid. Knox is getting a bundle too, it's doubtful that he'll be relegated to backup status, and he shouldn't be until if/when Kincaid proves to be the better TE. Either way, a good exercise would be dividing on or about those 270 catches amongst our 7 receivers.

I saw your thread, I thought it was good. I reacted favorably to it. As to the above, I was referring to the stuff that gets put out in the media, and by people that posters here have cited as "draft experts." To your point however, we don't know what teams come up with, but I'm sure that many disagree with the publicly put forth experts. We'll simply never know. I was referring to what most fans say about players, obviously they're picking 99% of it up from them, and they generally all agree with one another, at least to one extent or another. I mean it's ridiculous to think that anyone posting here did hundreds of hours of research on a whole bunch of players just for kicks and giggles. They're getting their info from somewhere however. And there's a reason why Kincaid didn't attend the combine, and it's not all because of his back.

I don't mind Kincaid, to me it seemed to be more of luxury pick however and I never would have traded up for for it, especially not at the cost of a 4th. I have no idea what Beane was thinking. In total after all of his trades we moved up those two spots but down 160 elsewhere total. It was bizarre. Again, we're now six drafts into Beane's team. We'll see how things turn out this fall. But again, if it's on the short end, the tough questions need to start being answered. If we win the Super Bowl, then great, everyone's happy. LOL