PBF81

He was on the team assistant to Dorsey the entire time. This implied notion that they woke him up after a hard weekend out drinking and the poor guy came in cold is disingenuous at best. At the end of the day he took the same crew, particularly Allen, and got less from him while having Allen's passing metrics plummet to levels getting dangerously close to 2019's. And if we're going to talk about disingenuous, he gets credit for us going 6-1 the last 7, almost exclusively here. But if not for a defensive TD vs. NE and a STs TD vs. Miami, we don't win the division and likely don't even make the playoffs. Then it's an entirely different discussion. TBD if we're going to be honest. LOL, can you even imagine ... This place would have been apoplectic. LOL

Call me nuts, but IMO Shakir's capable of posting a 100+ catch 1,500 yard season. He's averaged 15.8 YPR her so far. Granted, not as a #1 or 2 WR, but still. Under Brady he averaged 18.2, a lot of that in two games but still. Diggs averaged 12.1 here. Maybe it's destiny that Shakir and his Mountain West QB form a historic tandem. It's all going to come down to whether or not the coaching staff optimize the offense. Standing in the way is themselves. What they're saying about this team now doesn't match Shakir or Allen reaching those numbers. Time will tell. A lot is expected when Allen is your QB. To not deliver will cause problems.

Great point if Josh is going to run the ball 200 times. He was on pace for around 150 carries under Brady, a career high average. Again, find a QB that finished the season at 60.7% comp. % and posted an 85.5 Rating that made the playoffs much less won his division or won a playoff game. The rest is immaterial. It'll have to improve overall. Many people see this. BTW, you inadvertantly impugn or coaching. Two years ago we wanted Josh to run less. No sooner had Brady taken over than the same coaching staff wanted him to run more. Presumably that doesn't really need any explanation. 😏

So the Chargers with few notable defensive players were good then? Bosa out. We were on the underside of average in what they allowed per game in passing yards and total yards, and near the bottom in 1Ds generated, and nearly lost. The Chargers were only marginally worse on offense against our top D, with Stick and no one worthy of note on offense otherwise. We nearly lost that game. Well, OK. We all have our opinions. We put up fewer yards than every team but the Jets vs. NE. NE with Zappe outplayed us offensively. The Miami game was Allen's worst game against Miami since our blowout win (35-0) in '21, and otherwise since his rookie season. Philly was massively overrated as others have pointed out. The Jets allowed similar yards and points to Miami a week in later, at home, and Even more to Cleveland several weeks after that. Dallas was all Cook and D. We have no idea how Allen would have played in that game has it running game not worked out. Point being, if it doesn't improve we're not going to win the division and there will be trouble. Excuses aren't going to pay the piper. Otherwise argue as you may, but 60.7% compl. with an 85.5 rating, if that's what we got on the season, would be problematic. How can anyone argue contrarily, that's ridiculous. Find a QB that finished the season with those two numbers that went to the playoffs much less won his division and a playoff game. As to they playoffs, that's where McD really shines. He throws his hands in the air and "let's Allen be Allen." It's hardly coaching. If it were them our D would be on vacation once the playoffs started. Maybe he should be more hands-off this season. We'll see what happens. Arguing about it now isn't going to change any of it. But excuses aside, Allen's passing metrics has better not be where they were under Brady over the season or we're in trouble. There's a whole lot of blind faith being placed in Brady right now. It could work out, but to assume that it will, particularly given our ongoing merry-go-round at OC, is hardly assured.

The question is why on the drops. The issue in analyzing Drops is that it's subjective unlike other metrics. Either way, not too get into the minutiae, the point is twofold, first, it counters the narrative(s), and secondly, let's hope it changes. It'll have to if we're to see improvement.

Reasons aside, ... to your point ... Here are his pre & post Brady metrics: Pre-Brady (Dorsey) 260 passing yards/game 70.3% compl. % 1.9 TDs/game 1.1 INTs/game 1.3 Sacks/game 96.6 Rating 7.4 YPA Hurried on 8.6% of attempts Hit on 8.0% of attempts 1st-Down% 33.7% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs) Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 8.4 Yards out ______________________________ Under Brady 244 passing yards/game 60.7% compl. % 1.4 TDs/game 1.0 INTs/game 1.6 Sacks/game 85.5 Rating 7.5 YPA Hurried on 9.2% of attempts Hit on 10.0% of attempts 1st-Down% 32.8% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs) Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 9.1 Yards out So if we analyze that data against the narrative that he improved under Brady, and that the passing game turned shorter, but that's obviously not the case. The depth of target alone tells us clearly that that's false. As to efficiency metrics, Allen obviously got notably worse in Brady's system. In fact, let's assume that Allen's metrics in Brady's system held for an entire 17-game season, and since they are an average of Brady's 7 regular season games as such. Allen would finish with the following on the season with rankings by this past season in parentheses: 4,148 Yards (8th) 24 TDs (tied for 11th) 17 INTs ( 60.7% Compl. % (30th) 13th in 1st-Down % 85.5 Rating (23rd) That's hardly improvement. To your point, those numbers are only marginally better than his 2019 numbers of 20 TDs and 9 INTS (half), yet a mere 4 more TDs on an additional 1,000+ passing yards. It's also not as if the Ds we faced were tough outside of KC & Dallas, the latter of which was flat coming into Buffalo following a primetime SNF game vs. Philly which essentially cemented the divison for Dallas. People dismiss his average play with all kinds of narrative, but those are the numbers under Brady's system. Sure, he'll tweak it, but also sure, now without a single player on the team that's proven to command double-coverage downfield, and with half of Allen's TD and yardage recipients now gone from the team, and remarkably with us replacing Davis with someone absurdly similar. Hopefully Shakir can be that downfield receiver to draw deep. It'd be great to see him at the top of the league in Yards and YPR. ... just in time to give him leverage to renegotiate going into his fourth of four years. LOL There's potential, but it doesn't play to Allen's forte` and the inexperienced Brady's going to have to be at the top of an OC's game to get it all to work efficiently. Posting numbers only marginally better than Allen's 2019 numbers will turn out a vocal fanbase on the issue.

It was primarily because of two games, but Shakir averaged 18.2 YPR under Brady, which had it been sustained over the entire season he'd have been ranked #1 in YPR. And with the deep throws, 83.3% catch%, which is sick. It's impossible to know how things are going to shake out without Diggs & Davis on the field. I'm not buying the "Diggs lost a step" (literally overnight) stuff either. Davis is Davis, he is what he is. There are a lot of questions going into this season and Brady had better hit some sort of steady-state quickly or it could cost us. He won't have half a season to figure things out. It's concerning given his lack of experience. Otherwise, here are the players that caught TD passes in Brady's 7 RS games: Jets: Cook, Ty Johnson, Shakir Philly: Diggs, Davis KC: Cook Dallas: Cook Chargers: Davis NE: none Miami: Sherfield, Knox Cook (3), Davis (2), Diggs (1), Shakir (1), Knox (1), Johnson (1), Sherfield (1)

Say what? To start, the Jets, which are one of two impressive wins under Brady, were absolutely atrocious their last 8 games posting the equivalent of a 22nd ranking over their last 8 games. Just look at their schedule. It was hardly against the top Ds. They became more and more hapless as the season progressed. Philly ranked 30th in D; The Chargers, NE, and Miami finished the season ranked 24th, 15th, and 22nd respectively. The only two Ds that we played that were worth a siht were Dallas and KC. Our offensive game against KC was pretty average for us by our standards, slightly above-average by KC D standards. Our game against Dallas was great, but there was obviously something wrong with Dallas which came in flat after having played a SNF game in primetime vs. the Eagles against which they were fighting for the division. So it's false that we had some sort of daunting or even above-average difficulty defensive schedule in Brady's 7 RS games. More to come ... And his metrics plummeted under Brady. I've posted them already, To validate your post, his metrics weren't significant better under Brady, when extrapolated to a full season from the 7 RS game, than they were in 2019. That's what concerns me. Who knows what we'll get here, but the short high-percentage game is hardly Allen's forte. It may be for the group of WRs we have, but Allen's the one slinging, not Samuel, Coleman, or anyone else. We also have a lot of overlap in our WR capabilities and strengths. It's obviously more complex than that, but to summarize extremely generally.

What the identity of the defense is is of no concern come playoff time. Under McD, when we've scored more than 24 points in the playoffs we're 4-1 with our loss having been 13-Seconds. When we've scored 24 or fewer points we're 1-5 with our win having been the 17-3 win over the Ravens and Jackson, who routinely chokes in the playoffs. It's the identity of the Offense that's going to chart the course. The big question is what that will be.

Lighten up! The comment wasn't even about the incident itself. On the flip side, look up Brian Banks sometime. Every time we have this trial by social media he comes to mind. He's lucky he wasn't hung given the social outrage at the time! I'm with ya on the daughters as I have em myself, but we weren't there. The amount of effort people put into things that aren't even any of their business in this world is astonishing.

Hold on hold on ... Original or North?

Thanks for that. And again, the goal here isn't to demean the guy, but the industry thrives on talking teams, coaches, players up. What we're doing is simply taking the narrative, which we know what it is, and asking ourselves whether, or perhaps to what extent, it has any basis in reality. Agree on the body-control and good catch there. That was in my subconscious but I hadn't defined it to myself. Is that a coachable thing? Maybe or maybe not. I always look to see which terminal weaknesses of a player can be coached and conversely which cannot be. Speed and ability to separate for example typically cannot be. And then of course, as another example, Coleman typically thrives in Zones, not M2M, but the DCs that we face will dicate that, not McD, Brady, or Coleman. How we react will be on them. Are we good at reacting, ... aka adjusting? IMO we're not among the best to be kind. Then of course there's the speed of the NFL and by inference the speed of the defenders. NFL LBs are typically going to be faster than most of the DBs that covered Coleman. So how does that work out. Here are his Weaknesses as outlined on NFL.com's draft profile for him, using that site for simplicity's sake. Weaknesses Press coverage can blanket his release and catch a ride. Below-average acceleration getting out of breaks and cuts. Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches. Needs to play through downfield corners to secure catch space. Capable of being a much more effective run blocker. The first three aren't really coachable. The fourth, maybe a little bit on technique, but not so much so as it relates to speed. The fifth is more coachable, but we didn't draft him with that draft capital to be an effective run blocker. If all he turns into is a #3/4 WR that's a good run blocker it's a pretty good guess that just about everyone will have considered him to have been more bust than boom. Again, simply generally speaking.

The comment was made facetiously.

LOL What's the going rate for babysitters for NFL players. Maybe I'll apply.

I lean to putting that in the Drop category. The ball was very catchable. It was nicely thrown over his right shoulder to the outside. The defender, Jones, while on him, isn't even a factor until the end of the what-should-have-been-a-catch. Either way, it's debatable, but it doesn't support the narrative. It's an excuse play. Again, clearly a drop, more so than the first one. The ball was right in his hands. Our current receivers make that catch. Agree on no drop. This is a who-cares play. If he ends up distinguishing himself here with that kind of nonsense then we're screwed. LOL My simply question, both now and running, is does his play in this game support the narrative? It seems that we agree that it does not. There's a whole lot more of this ahead in the next 9 games than that which will support the narrative. Just sayin'. BTW, as to overall catch rate, which presumably you mean catch%, that's fine, but I'm discounting that because the vast majority of his plays are in the high-percentage category. Either way, again, my focus is on either substantiating or not-so-much the narrative on him. It seems that thus far we're both somewhere on the side of that the narrative is stronger than the reality. BTW, I'm going to be really busy this week, I'll try to get to any response promptly, but it likely won't be prompt. LOL

I'm not sure that the "other plays" would be all that enlightening. A lot can be drawn from the every pass thing, although some of those can be dismissed as well. (Poor throws, etc.) One thing that is noticeable is that Coleman doesn't typically draw the best coverage guys on D, in fact, to the contrary. As to his play at MSU, I've only watched this highlight video, but I didn't notice a whole lot of difference in his use. But consider, we can get into this video another time, but look at his big play at about the 2:50 mark vs. Washington. On video it looks great. What's not to like. But if we view it in consideration of extrapolating his performance to the NFL, here are the particulars; First of all, the game was a blowout for Washington up to that point, which was the end of the 4th. Secondly, the guy covering him was LB Cam Bright, a senior, that went undrafted and is not playing in the NFL. Thirdly, Coleman barely beat the guy if we can even call it beating him. On that 24-yard TD catch vs. Wisconsin at the 5:20 mark, Coleman's catch is in that "contested catch" variety, but the CB covering him was a 5'10"/170 lb. freshman, and he had great coverage on Coleman the whole way. So that's not really all that impressive. He's not going to be facing that type of individual competition here. At about the 5:30 mark Coleman catches a nice deep throw, but again, the coverage is by a red-shirt senior, Jay Shaw, that went undrafted and never set foot in the NFL. So how impressed are we supposed to be that he racks up yards against the equivalent of XFL or Canadian league talent here. The next catch for a TD, same defender on another jump ball in a size mismatch. Indiana was his best game of that season based on the video, but Indiana also had the 120th ranked (131) passing yardage D and the 128th ranked passing TD D. In short, one of the few worst. Impressive? To add some additional perspective there, Coleman had 8 for 107 and a TD in that game. Isaiah Williams on Illinois had a 9/112/1 game with a crap QB; Some stiff named Graves on Idaho had a 3/84/1 game against them; Tyler Scott on Cincinnati had a 10/185/3 game vs. them, and on the same team, Tre Tucker posted 5/92/1 in the same game. They were drafted in rounds 4 and 3 respectively in '23. Look up they've done in the NFL; Trey Palmer on Nebraska put up 8/157/1 on them. He was drafted in the 6th round in '23, look him up too; Ronnie Bell, 11/121/0 for Michigan vs. them. He was 6 picks away from DFL in '23. He's done nothing; Charlie Jones on Purdue, 4/143/1. He was a late 4th whose done about the same as the others in the NFL. Several of those above with good QBs here. So perspective matters. Point being, that situation is entirely unlikely to occur here. As all the draft profiles say about Coleman, he can't separate, and he can't, certainly not with any consistency. So his value is going to come from these "contested catch" jumpballs that people talk about, or crisp route running, which isn't a weakness of his per se, but it's also not a strength, or finding open spots in zone coverages. If Coleman thrives, it's going to be because he's efficient for lack of a better word, but his efficiency metrics are not good either. The DBs that he sees covering him are going to be on the opposite end of the spectrum from what he's seen in college where he didn't even draw the best there. He's not going to make a living in the NFL on short passes for larger gains, and that's also a mismatch for Allen since that's not Allen's game. We've had little difficulty getting guys open in the flats and backfield, but Allen quite often overlooks them in favor of deeper throws. So Allen's going to have to adjust his game significantly to make optimal use of Coleman, and even then it remains to be seen whether Coleman can excel on YAC here in the NFL. That won't have to do with Allen. That's why what Brady thinks up will be critical, but it's also why Allen's numbers plummeted last season under Brady. Otherwise of his four biggest games at MSU, apart from four being losses, three were blowout losses, the other one was a close loss to a horrible defensive team. So questions arise as to how some of his biggest plays came in those games, but they likely won't be under similar circumstances here. If the hope is for him to get mismatched for jump balls, I mean is that a good strategy for us? We said the same about James Hardy when we drafted him, who was even bigger at 6'6"/220 and more accomplished in college than Coleman. Just sayin'. It's very important to look at the particulars of plays in evaluating players, and so very few draft analysts do that. It simply takes too much time, way more time than a person even has much less is capable of spending on for one or two hundred players. His teammate at MSU, Jayden Reed, drafted at 50th overall in the 2nd in '23, is likely going to have a notably better career than Coleman. Anyway, here's that video. But let's get back to what we were doing.

I think it was a ManBro or something. George's dad was involved. LOL

Agree The two DBs on that play, one went undrafted and will likely never play in the NFL. The other was a sophomore S with almost no playing experience. The ball was right smack in Coleman's hands. I wouldn't call it a drop, but I would definitely call it a contested catch opp just like PFF did, and given all that we've heard about Coleman, it was uninspiring. Note that Coleman also didn't have to stop short and jump-ball it, he could easily have taken another step or two and been pretty close to catching that ball in stride. Watch it again in slo-mo. Either way, the two defenders were nothing defenders, the coverage will be much tougher in the NFL. Another bubble-screen as you point out. Those plays simply aren't going to amount to much here. Well defended pass. Coleman wasn't particularly open. Remember, we're looking for plays that are inspiring here. That wasn't one. This is a 3rd-and-14 play with a deep zone. His defender, that inexperienced soph S again, was 19 yards beyond the LoS on a 3/14 when the ball was thrown. LOL The other defenders were deep too with the other three receivers that couldn't get open. He completely whiffs on the tackle. And lol, watch the next guy, that same undrafted CB, watch him try to make the tackle. LOL, it's no wonder he has zero chance in the NFL. It was an OK play by Coleman, and sure, YAC, but that's simply not going to happen here in the NFL. BTW, one thing that I noticed while watching the entire video, Coleman's rarely if ever doubled. Agree, easy TD, Good play, but entirely courtesy of a defensive lapse however. How often does anyone see Coleman slipping open like that in the NFL? It'll be rare to be sure. Easy win over a Sun Belt Conf team that has zero defenders in the NFL in any significant capacity. I also don't think any offensive players either. We drafted Shawn Nelson (TE) from there about 15 years ago. I see absolutely nothing special from Coleman in this game given the talent lining up opposite him. BC next. This should be interesting.

Well that's the thing, it wasn't really a tight space, there's no one within many yards in any direction even partially positioned to make a tackle. Alexander was also out of position, which we can credit to him, not Coleman. There's a reason why LSU's pass D was in the bottom quartile. Keep in mind however, the coverage now will be much better. OK, so let's roll with your take here. As to the QB read, again, keep in mind that Coleman will first have to shake the coverage, which is one of his weaknesses. After that, given coverage, we get into the "contested catches" thing, and as we go down thru the games we'll see some more regarding those.

It will be fun. Agree with most of that. FSU had the 77th ranked rushing team last season, and their RB, Trey Benson, drafted in the early 3rd and now on Arizona, had 156 carries for 906 yards. So it's not as if Coleman's production should have suffered from that. Also, here are the two draft profiles for the pair per nfl.com, there's quite a bit of overlap and their metrics are nearly identical. Some shared weaknesses. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/gabriel-davis/32004441-5632-9675-38f5-3e009da4e98e https://www.nfl.com/prospects/keon-coleman/3200434f-4c29-5571-54fa-77236b775ae1 And you're right, Brady seems to like the screens, but that's a huge reason why Allen's production suffered. We've discussed a lot of that already, but again, that's what McD wants. Don't think for two seconds that Brady's driving that rig by himself without instructions from dispatch.

Great to hear. The obvious conclusion then is that there will be no excuses if our offense underachieves with Allen at the helm.

@BarleyNY Jay Gruden w/ Charlie Brown's head. LOL

@BarleyNY LOL, and if this ain't the truth ...

ROFLMAO ... my eyes are tearing! LOL Sapp & Washington ... BWAHAHA Malarkey: "Drew?" Bledsoe: "AHHH!" Malarkey: "Right." LOL Bledsoe's arms down to his knees. LOL Les Mess, Harry Sphincter, Bill Spleen. I forget the other names. I'm dyin' from laughter here. McD's favorite QB. Best not to bring that up. LOL