PBF81

Their schedule was all but identical to ours last season as well. We played KC, Tenn, & the Rams, whereas they played Jax, Denver, & Seattle. One could argue that they had the tougher three games there. Tenn & the Rams sucked. Couldn't a similar argument then be made about our D? I wish we had a Quinnen Williams.

I won't laugh too hard.

DR?

I'm tellin' ya. Or the opportunity cost. Four people, parking, food, etc., can take a very nice long weekend somewhere for that and watch the game in climate-controlled comfort.

Thanks! Yeah, great movie. Yeah, again, this is where we see things completely different. I don't see him getting any of Davis' targets. Allen, McD, Dorsey all like Davis. He spread it around a lot in '20 and '21, not nearly as much last season. Dorsey! (gotta say it like you'd say Newman!" Also, gotta question how many 5 WR sets we see. As well, in our 4 WR sets, I'm thinking that Kincaid is going to be doing the heavy lifting for newbies there. We'll see. Either that or he doesn't meet the expectations placed upon him as a rookie 1st-rounder. That's an interesting conundrum for the team. IMO if Kincaid isn't easily our 4th leading receiver, and assuming that Knox posts equal or comparable numbers, A, I'm not sure how this team improves much, and B, Beane's going to start taking some rabid heat. I was as well. But here's the thing with Davis, and I'm going to put some numbers to it that I just ran. He's primarily a deep guy, low-percentage routes, far from the high-percentage short stuff. Now I agree that Allen needs to take advantage of the much higher-percentage of shorter passes like he did with Beasley here, if he's going to improve his overall play as a QB, but the fact is that those deeper receivers won't generally have as high catch%. I tried to figure out how to embody that statistically, then it hit me. I just ran the catch% for the WRs that finished in the top-10 for Yards-per-Reception, and then went down to the first 10 WRs ranked starting at 21st, took out the two TEs and replaced 'em with the next two WRs, to keep it all to WRs, and calculated the Catch% for the two groups. The findings were interesting. In the first category, deep WRs, obviously, it was 56.8%. In that second group, average starting WRs, it was 64.8%. That's incredibly significant for that particular analysis. It's an 8% difference. Granted, Davis was still marginally on the low-end, even in that group, but the greater statistical significance is in what I just cited. Davante Adams was only 4 percentage points higher than Davis, and he finished third in the league in yardage after Jefferson and Hill, and first in TDs, as a comparison. While most of those WRs were notably better than Davis in catch%, the best in the batch ranked 118th in catch%. AJ Brown ranked 149th, and Adams ranked 177th, Davis 186th. The average group ranking was in the 150s. Of the second group, the highest was 73.4% and the average, around 164.5, ranked in the 120s. Three were in the 70s, five in the 60s, and two in the 50s. Of the first group, the highest was 64.8%, Davis was 2nd in the league btw in YPR, there are six in the 60s and 4 in the 50s. Five in the second group were better than the best in the first group. In short, Davis, and what he's being asked to do, he's not outside the parameters of the typical metrics for that categorization. Then there's that, McD's use of Hines, or non-use I should say, an outstanding receiving RB, was mindboggling last season. As to Kumerow, I never thought much of him and it's absolutely no surprise to me that he's no longer on the team. A lot of hype over him too when he got here, and in his three seasons here ombined he barely matched his yardage from his worst season in GB, had one fewer catch, and had the same 1 TD. As I recall, the talk about his being another deep guy was similar to that for Sherfield now. Just sayin'. Yeah, thanks! Me too. LOL at the week 5, but remember, right now I'm ahead here. LOL

LOL, for some reason your comment made me think of this, typical forum form.

Thanks! I really appreciate the intelligent discourse. That is a lucid, intelligent, well thought out argument. Overruled! OK, w/o googling, what movie is that from? If you're not a fan of it you may recognize the quote. I'll respond to a handful of your points. I agree with much of what you wrote. No, but when a WR is kept for his STs contributions, you can typically write him off as much of a contributor in the receiving department was my meaning. Here's the thing, I don't see it that much differently here. We disagree as to the role on the depth chart that he'll take up, which largely explains the differences in our expectations. But I will add that yes, he was behind Hill and Waddle in Miami, but he was the third option on a team bereft of receiving talent, and Hill was even injured and played through injury, which upped Sherfield's opportunity. Still, the best he was able to make of that was 30/417/2. And again, I cannot stress that terrible overall 2nd halves performance of his enough in this scenario. So we'll see I guess. There's also an enormous gap between Hill 1,710/7 and Waddle 1,356/8, and Sherfield, their 3rd option, which also says something, quite a bit in fact. Honestly, Dorsey factors significantly into my assessment. That's why I expect Shakir to do more. He also played well in the playoffs for a rookie depth WR. If Reid were our coach I might lean more your way. But I didn't mention Dorsey, but I'm counting on him to screw it up. Not happy about it, but counting on it. This right here is the lynchpin of our discussion. You see that, but if I had to list the receivers, by number of catches this season among the WR/TE options, I would rank them as such: Diggs Davis Knox Kincaid Shakir Harty Sherfield That right there is why we see things differently. If Sherfield is in fact the #3 WR behind Diggs and Davis, I suspect he'll shatter that 10 and post a career-best season here. Obviously I don't envision him being #3. Davis was only 23 last season. He's been incredibly young for the NFL. He's several years away from the forefront of his prime. It's a monumental mistake to cut or trade him, and they should extent him while the cost is cheap. He will only improve. Otherwise, 1st-Downs are 1st-Downs and TDs are TDs. As to QBs, Tua was more than enough QB for Sherfield to log more than 400 yards and a pair of TDs. Look at Hill and Waddle as you cited. In SF he was the 6th receiving option in terms of yards and receptions among WRs/TEs. In his last two seasons in Arizona he was the 9th and 8th receiving option in terms of both yards and receptions there, and regardless of QB, he was 9th and 8th. Otherwise Murray was not horrible. IMO you're overemphasizing that. I'm glad to hear that. I was critical of Jones when we drafted him. I had him labeled as a bust out of the gate. Nothing he did or played in in college translates to the NFL. Most of his stats came in garbage time in 5 WR sets that are are rare in the NFL. He also loaded up on second rate talent defensively. I took massive heat for my post-draft take. I as well was hoping to get JJ Smith-Shuster in that draft at that spot. Well, you said a mouthful there, NPI. That's largely what I'm counting on to be honest, that's a lot of variables, and Sherfield's not pure slot WR. I don't think that the team needs a "versatile" receiver as much as everyone makes out. Particularly with a 1st-round versatile TE now. To me, particularly when contrasted with his performances/stats, he's a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type, which is going to work against him, not for him. We will see. Also, are we getting ready to diminish our last year's 5th round WR's role, Shakir? Or will Shorter not play much? What's Harty's role going to be? If he stays healthy I suspect that it'll be more than Sherfield's. You said it when you said that there are a lot of mouths, I simply don't see Sherfield getting much more than scraps. If he does make the team, I can see him being inactive for some games even. Sounds as if you're only marginally more optimistic than I am, if I'm even being optimistic. LOL But, again, if as you say, he does turn out to be the #3 option after Diggs and Davis, then he'll post a career-best season here. That's very reasonable! So, for $50 payable to some Bills related charity, either way, winner's choice, for an O/U of 10 receptions for Sherfield. The wager becomes nullified if he's injured in camp, your call there, or if he isn't capable of playing at least 12 games. So if he's released uninjured prior to or during the season otherwise, or just a roster cut, or if he's incapable of playing at least 12 games (inactive games where he's not injured count there) then it's good. Win win for all! When I win I'll just tell you to pick the charity you like best. LOL

I share your skepticism re: his play in the playoffs where he's largely no-showed in the last five playoff games he's got 0 TDs and has been nowhere near impressive in three of those games, average in another. But he did finish 5th in receiving yardage and 4th in receptions, receiving TDs, and 1st-Downs for receivers.

Speaking of that, I wonder when they'll put out more detailed pics of the stadium.

Where's Mo Lewis when you really need him. Should be interesting, the Jets' pass D is right up there with the best and they held us to 20 and 17 points last season. If Rodgers' offense there is anything we could be in trouble. It'll be a good gauge game for us.

Yep, that and the Jets home-opener, on 9/11, and MNF in the NYC metro area. Oh well. LOL

Not sure from what angle you mean, but so much for my thinking that tix might not be too unreasonable for this game. LOL It was one of the road games I was hoping to attend.

No disrespect taken. Likewise BTW, and I'm enjoying this. Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts!! Actually, almost the entire piece read like a fluff piece to me. To start, anytime people start talking about "combine stats" six years into a career, the aroma of fresh poop is already prominent. Then it goes into his stats which you imply above are all but irrelevant, then it talks about how great his catching in traffic is, but fails to mention that, apparently then, he drops many of the routine passes since both his career as well as in his only season with a significant number of catches, his catch% was terrible at 56%. I was left attempting to connect those two dots. Then it talks about him "earning trust," then fades into the kiss-of-death for receivers, how good his Special Teams play is and how he always shows up early for work. (Yawn!) And then, as if the reader looking for some hope for optimism isn't bored into the nines, they talk about a reunion with "the three-amigos" from Arizona. Major eyeroll there. Also, that piece was prior to last season, and yet, he's no longer on Miami. You said this ... Here's my updated opinion, and, after having read that piece again. At best he's a backup to Diggs, so unless Diggs goes down ... We have no control over that. And if Diggs goes down, every WR moves up at least a little. Last season Shakir was Diggs' backup, and as the team's 4th leading WR, Shakir caught 10 passes. Our 5th leading WR caught 6 passes. In Miami Sherfield was among 4 WRs on a team with zero significant depth at WR, none, meaning he was forced into the role deserving or not, and which clearly gave him more opportunities than he otherwise would have had, which won't be the case here. As I pointed out, he was terrible in the 2nd halves of games. His catch% would have rivaled for DFL here last season, and despite Davis being worse in that regard, Davis makes so many big plays whereas Sherfield makes almost none. I see Diggs, Davis, Shakir, and Hasty all having more receptions than him. I see Kincaid dipping into the WR's catches. I'll give him a 60% chance of making the team as the 5th WR. As to "making the tough catches in traffic," how many times have we heard that about WRs coming through here, or about a WR's speed. It gets tedious. Why would I, should I, expect that to change here, or expect him to post more than a handful of catches, this season, in his sixth season in the league? I don't, which is my updated opinion. BTW, I'd be curious what your take on Zay Jones upon drafting him was given your statement about WRs. I'm not one of those "see I told you so types," in fact, I couldn't care less about being right, and with that in mind, sure, I'm all over that. Out of curiosity though, and be honest, what do you seem him doing this season here? Last season he had 30/417/2. You said friendly wager but then implied an amount. But I'll do $50 payable to some Bills related charity, either way, winner's choice, if you want. But keep in mind, if he were to be cut either before or during the season you'd lose that. As an injury clause in fairness to you, we can say that if he isn't healthy for at least a dozen games then we can make it a null bet. Otherwise just a friendly wager. BTW, I've seen at least one depth chart prediction with him not among the WRs. And hey, I hope he has 800 yards and 6 TDs, I do. Not going to happen though. Out of curiosity, our current depth chart has Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, Shorter, and Sherfield on it, and some more less prominent. Then Knox and Kincaid, the latter whom again was a 1st-round pick chosen to essentially fill the slot WR role to at least somewhat of an extent. If Kincaid doesn't put up at least 50 grabs for 500 yards and at least 4/5 TDs, Beane's going to start having an uncomfortable existence here. Knox, our $52M TE, will have to get some too. I don't see a lot remaining for 4th and 5th WRs. The question is, how do you see, numbers wise, the distribution of catches among those 8 candidates, assuming that all make the team? This is where discussions of this nature get interesting.

I won't argue that at all, but he is a fifth round pick and the team is big on him. Nothing you or I think matters here as to whether he makes the team. The team's big on him, so any questions the should defer to Beane & McD. Besides, lots of draft analysts talking him up too, which is why I question much of what they say. In keeping with the context here though, that's hardly an argument in favor of Sherfield whose in his fifth season on his third different teams in as many seasons, hasn't even averaged 200 yards or one TD per game. His best season last year was 30/417/1 with one notable play the entire season. He also did that with zero competition at the spot. It's anything but impressive, even for a backup.

Why he was signed isn't really germane to my comments. As to your statement about McD, LOL, OK. Otherwise, you're suggesting that Beane simply signs players in a vacuum without any input from McD. OK I won't argue.

Exactly, and to the point where there's x number of roster spots, and including free agents signed well before the draft, but if one believed all of the talking up then you'd think that there were 2x number of roster spots.

They're really talking Shorter up too. Shakir I think will be a solid mid-tier WR. We'll see.

If Sherfield makes the team, just think about what that meant for all of the other prospects after Harty and Shorter, many of whom people here are talking about what great pick-ups they were, even if only as 5th/6th WRs. This time of year people seem to assume that the final roster is for 65. Three teams in five seasons, below-average statistical performance, his third one-year stint in a row, ... LOL ... He's averaged 10.8 YPG in his five seasons with a best of 24.5 last season, absolutely horrific performance in the 3rd and 4th Qs last season, and only one decent (4/63/1) game against any passing D ranked higher than 16th. (Cleveland) BTW, the closest WR behind him at Miami had only 12 catches, Cedric Wilson, and without looking no one in our forum can name another WR on Miami last season. IOW, he likely got what he got because there was no competition for him as a 3/4 WR. I have no idea why anyone would argue even slightly in favor of Sherfield. Even if he makes the team I'd be stunned if he has even 10 catches.

I know you didn't, don't get spun up, but you did make that comment comparing him to Kumerow, which yeah, is about right, LOL. But when he signed most people here were much bigger on him than I'm reading in this thread. It's interesting how the subsequent drafting of Kincaid has lowered the rhetoric on Sherfield. Kumerow's nothing either, he won't be around come fall, he was another nothing signing just like Sherfield. Is he even still on the roster? I've never touted him, only others here did last and when we signed him. Not sure why the comparison there. As to Kumerow, I have no idea how one even compares a WR that has 7 catches in three seasons. I also contrasted Sherfield to McKenzie whom no one here thinks is good, and he still falls short of McKenzie as pointed out. Why not compare him to McK then? As to the math, it's easy to calculate, 5th grade math,you can't be serious about that. That's exactly where I got the data, it's my go-to data site although there are others also depending upon categories, some do it better than others. For raw data nothing beats pfr. What, you can only evaluate what's spoon-fed you? You can't possibly be serious there. But since you mention 3rd-down-conversion rate, let's talk about that, and a few others. pfr provides all the data needed for anyone to calculate pretty much anything, but we can use straight splits there and simple math (division of two simple numbers) to draw our comps. To start, and go look for yourself, but did you notice Sherfield's 2nd-H numbers last season? ... contrasted with is 1st-Half numbers that is? If you had, you should have noticed that his 3rd & 4th Q stats plummet into next to worthlessness. In short, he sucks in the 2nd halves of games. Why, do you think, that may be? On 3rd-downs last season all 13 of McKenzie's catches went for 1st-Downs, and 13 of 19 targets, with a 68.4% catch%. In contrast, Sherfield had the same 19 targets, only 9 receptions, and 7 went for 1st-Downs, with a 47.4% catch%. McKenzie was a subpar WR and wasn't good enough for us. I fail to see how Sherfield is any better than a WR we just cast off when his performance(s) don't even match McK's. You can be right, I really don't care, but I simply fail to see how Sherfield makes the team at this point, his contract is nowhere near suggestive that he's beyond getting cut, and since Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, and now Shorter and a few others, not to mention Kincaid whom most seem to believe that he'll more fill a Slot-WR role than that of TE, and Sherfield's fighting with all the others to make it as a 6th WR and/or STs player. I mean honestly, if someone can't beat out Sherfield ... Sure, great story, but until we sign players to do Traveler's MOTY documentaries, ... I'm not quite sure what there is to argue about there, which is essentially all I said earlier. That's all.

Here's the thing, if Sherfield is all that, then how come he's averaged barely over 10 yards-per-game? Kumerow's not much either, but his TD and 1D conversion rates are better than Shefield's. See my post above. Well, if you read those pieces on Sherfield, it's pretty obvious to me why we signed him, and it has less to do with his on-field performance and lot more to do with his life philosophy in relation to McD. This is a business, and McD's preferences for character with a religious touch is fine as a tiebreaker, but it shouldn't factor in otherwise, but it does. We're not a church team.

IMO he's a perfect player to be cut prior to the season. 1-year contract with almost no dead cap if he gets cut. He's already a journeyman five years into the league. I see no difference between him and a bunch of other WRs we've had in/out of here quickly over the past six years. I don't understand even the remotest optimism on this guy. The article that prompted this thread talked about his great hands, but his catch% was not significantly better than Davis' and everyone wants Davis out of here. Davis at least makes big plays, not Sherfield. Davis has 1 TD for every 11 targets and every 6 catches. Also, 42% of Davis' targets result in a 1st-Down, 77% of his catches result in 1st-Downs. He's averaged 9.1 yards-per-target. Sherfield finished 161st in Catch% last season, which is bad. Davis was only marginally worse. Sherfield has 1 TD for every 30 targets and every 17 receptions. That's a third of Davis' rate and everyone hates Davis and wants him gone. We need to at least apply the same logic and reasoning to both players. Only 35% of his targets resulted in 1st-Downs and only 62% of his catches resulted in 1st-Downs. McKenzie's numbers are significantly better. Also, Sherfield's only two TDs last season were against the Browns in a blowout Miami win in their second biggest offensive performance, and the other was this play vs. San Fran, a play which essentially is his career. LOL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uit0_3xTpmw Not trying to poo-poo the guy, but nothing about his signing suggests that it's a good wager to put money on the fact that he won't get cut. Not saying he will, but IMO he's definitely a bubble-guy in that way. I don't see a single role that he fills better than any other player on the team. Either way, same as the day he was signed, this is a nothing signing. If he makes the team it'll probably be because of his special teams play only, but we're not hurting for STs.

Excellent example, but in his case I would say that it more Brady than BB. I give Reid more credit than I give BB.

Roger! I think that we can agree that Reid's offensive play-calling was only good once he had top-tier talent however. ??

Bayern Munchen!

Well, they did have Charles and Maclin, who overlapped somewhat, as well as Hill in '16 and '17.