PBF81

We'll find out, likely this season. Let's suppose it doesn't occur though, let's suppose he continues on in his inconsistent ways with low-end playoff performances and continues to get injured. Will you then still maintain the same position?

Well, OK, but fwiw you skirted most of my points. I don't care about contract value, I along with many other fans actually care about improving the team. Unless Oliver improves and stays injury-free that's not going to happen, even if he were getting paid less, or more for that matter more. Dollars DNE performance. A lot of people seem to be confusing the two. We could technically have the best "bargain team" in the league from a contract status and be entirely non-competitive. Again, we need improvements, not bargains.

I realize that. But keep in mind, what it also does is add more money to the existing state-of-play. In other words, it doesn't improve the team at face value. Nothing changes from a talent perspective. That improvement will depend upon several things, as you imply, particularly since more money doesn't make him bigger or faster. As you said, it will to some extent be predicated upon his injury status. Perhaps his injury status is related to his lack of size to some extent, and having to go up against bigger/stronger/faster opponents. Who knows, we don't, I don't think that anyone does. But his play this season was only marginally better than the prior two seasons where he wasn't injured. The extra money, as I commented on earlier, also doesn't make him bigger or faster. Right? Now let's suppose he does not improve, or continues to get injured. Should that occur, now we'll have that $45M guaranteed, or most of it, to deal with. It's not that the signing was bad in and of itself. For some teams it may have been brilliant. But for us, I and many other fans and writers/journalists/analysts out there would like to start seeing some of our rookies playing well, like they do on many other teams, in their first three or four years of their contracts, to the extent that they make an impact. Like White for example. All of the players that currently make this team as good as it is, are getting top market dollar for their status generally speaking. Allen needs no mention, but otherwise, Diggs (free-agent), Knox (2nd Contract), Dawkins (2nd Contract), Von Miller (free agent), White (2nd Contract), Milano (2nd Contract), Morse (free-agent), Hyde (free-agent), Poyer (free-agent). We can add Oliver now. (2nd Contract) Where are the rookies in their first four years that are providing above-average play much more impact-play for the team? We could argue Groot, but he wasn't good with Miller off the field. The jury's still out on him. We cannot continue to keep spending like that to keep the same level of play. Right? And what about the playoffs where we aren't good. In the biggest of games several haven't stepped up. Diggs for one. Oliver either. I've posted his playoff stats. Other than vs. the poor Skylar Thompson led Fins, which is hardly a standard, he's got a mere 1 sack in 7 playoff games, only 2 QB Hits, and 3 TFLs I believe. That's not commensurate with that contract. Anyway, to bring this full-circle with your comment, what if Oliver continues to suffer injuries because he's outsized and outmuscled? What if his play doesn't improve like so many are assuming? Will it help propel us in the playoffs? Will it matter what he's getting paid at that point? How would that $45M look then? Can we reasonably assume that all of those things align positively? I'd love to hear your thoughts on those. Truly. Again, it's a high-risk, decent (but not likely high reward) signing. The odds of Oliver turning into a top-10 DT are not great. In short, are we looking for bargains, or future bargains, or are we looking to build a team that is capable of winning it all. I'm not seeing a connection between the latter and Oliver's signing. Thoughts?

Two things, anytime a player needs someone "next to him" to be good it should raise questions. Otherwise, Ford's on another Beane-special 1-year contract. What if he shines here? Then what, contract wise? We give him a monster contract too? Just playing devil's advocate there. I get the whole "taking pressure off a player(s)" thing, but the best players ante-up regardless. Kyle Williams didn't always have great players next to him as one example. If Oliver improves as many seem to think that he will, then yes, the contract will be a bargain. But if not, then we'll be hamstrung by that $45M guaranteed whether it's Beane or another GM, it won't matter. Showing him the money doesn't make him better and it doesn't make him bigger or faster. As Washington stated, he'll have to dig that up from somewhere else. It's been 4 seasons and it hasn't happened though. It's another high-risk high-reward type of thing that we seem to lean towards. But $45M guaranteed is a lot for that kind of risk. If the guaranteed had been less such that we could have cut him after '24 (two more seasons) then it would have been better. It wasn't a lot for top DTs, but he's not one, but it was a lot for where he ranks. It's entirely predicated upon him improving. Without that improvement it's not going to look nearly as good. At the end of the day, when building a team, you have to have a solid mix of draftees that are performing to above-average standards, and not talking about ones on their second contracts, and we don't seem to have that. With maybe one exception, and this draft class in the balance, we don't have that. A team is always going to be cap-stretched if all of its talent comes at top rates for what it gets. It's nearly unanimous that he wasn't worth a 1st-round pick. If that's the case, then finding a DT in round 2 that plays to his level really shouldn't be that difficult. Right? The problem is Beane's track record on that.

"around here" is the operative term there. I also don't see anything about me projecting my intellect, I deliberately attempt to phrase things so as not to do things like that. If I failed somewhere else then it's my error. I don't see how I did that in what you referenced. I'd be happy to go toe-to-toe with Simon on a neutral playing field. Any day any time. And please, absolutely no disrespect intended, nothing but the fullest respect there, for real. Ingore, yes please. Thank you. I'm not a big fan of exchanges that get emotional and are driven by that. I don't ignore anyone, I'm a big advocate of the 1st Amendment. I don't respond to a few posters, but I don't ignore them. Otherwise, did you see what he said to me? Had I said that, or any number of other posters, I'd have been banned for a day or two. Did I complain? No. I was half-joking with the above and figured he may have been having a rough evening like many do. Who knows what's going on in peoples' lives when they come here as a refuge. As to the first part of what you quoted, that was to another poster with whom I was having a decent conversation. As to the rest, I've backed up everything I've said with data. The fact that it may not be popular across the board is a different matter. If Simon's interested in debating this team, I'm game. He can let me know. I'll set up a neutral forum for it and we can exchange our thoughts there in an organized and rational fashion after we each have time to respond to the other. That's the approach that I prefer. Just have him let me know. We can begin on this topic this week. I think it'd be a great point-counterpoint exchange if we do it in good nature. We could draw many views from outside of here.

Just wait 6 months.

Tipped passes are in the stats as well, under Passes Defended.

At the end of the day this signing does not improve the team. It merely adds to the cost of the status quo insofar as Oliver goes. All offseason people were complaining that it DL and DTs aren't good enough. So what's changed? Nothing but the price. Thats's a fact.

Agreed. The dropoff in performance at LB this season will be far more damaging than risking $45M guaranteed that Oliver, who won't get bigger or faster, actually improves.

Agree, and that's why IMO the move reeks of desperation. We obviously couldn't afford to pay every player that plays at that level comparably at his position. This season is going to be incredibly revealing of many things. First time that McD will be facing a non-easy schedule and a Division in which any of three teams can legitimately win it, and with NE refusing to go away. I have a hunch that if we either don't advance to the AFC CG or if we blow it via coaching again, that there's going to be a significant cascade of criticism to come.

You've seen his Playoff stats that I've posted a couple of times now, I think a few posts above too. They're far from impressive. But thanks, and yeah, we'll see. Hopefully we're all talking about what a great deal we got come January.

8 Playoff Games 2 Sacks, 4 TFLs, 5 QB Hits Of those, 1 Sack, 1 TFL, and 3 QB Hits were against Skylar Thompson In the other 7 playoff games he's given us 1 Sack, 3 TFLs, and 2 QB Hits. Which is poor no matter how it's addressed. Our problem is the Playoffs, not the regular season. I'm pretty sure that they had most of this worked out prior to the end of the week. Wouldn't you say?

Then factor in what Coach Washington said about him this week. Some of the things that we do are mindboggling. If we paid everyone at his level that money comparatively ... He also only plays 60% of the snaps on D, pretty regularly, and as a high this past season. I expect more from someone getting $45M guaranteed. That's gonna hamstring Beane or the new GM significantly if it doesn't work out. His biggest knock is his lack of size. Did this extension make him bigger or faster.

Well, we all hope that Ed pops off. LOL We've all been hoping for that for four seasons now. Odds that the fifth time's the charm? Here's the thing, if not, then there's one helluva huge cap hit down the road or we simply get average for that money. I'll send you the piece.

Perhaps, in some respects. I will say, we're quickly becoming America's team however, I suspect that lasts while Allen is here, but not so much after that. It's interesting, because I don't see how our fanbase can support the projected forthcoming ticket prices. But someone here explained that ticket sales are now more national and less regional, with companies specializing in putting together packages (tix, travel, hotel, etc.) that cater to the wealthier cross-section of sports fandom. IDK, maybe it was you, I wish I could remember. But that makes sense. If true, in that sense the rinky dink only applies to some things. Not sure whether that has to do with The Stadium. LOL But rinky-dink or not, they either know what they're building in detail or they don't. I don't understand the lack of detailed visuals other than showing a bar from within the bar for example.

I just read that it's the 6th most guaranteed money for a DT. The opinions in that piece are primarily negative and mirror mine. Here's a quote from someone in another Bills forum: I generally agree with that. I don't know what the cap implications are for this year, a lot of times when they make a signing like this it alleviates the cap for this particular season. The tradeoff is often in guaranteed money. Not sure how or whether it did that, but that's an awful lot of guaranteed money for Oliver. If he doesn't improve then it will have proven to have been a bad signing. Here's the thing, his biggest knock is that he's undersized, unless this signing makes him get bigger it doesn't alter a glaring weakness. My first thought was that this was done for future cap reasons combined with a lack of DT talent in our pipeline, really none to speak of, nothing that warrants re-signing in the next couple of years. If that's the reason why it was done, while acquiescing to seemingly average play at the position, IMO it was a very unwise decision that merely kicks the can of future team-building issues down the road a season or two. If that's the way it plays out we really don't need that and it creates issues for whomever the next GM would be. We will see, time will tell. Not a thing that anyone here says will change anything. That much we know.

Presumably you saw my subsequent post. I misspoke, again, sorry about that and the confusion it caused. As to the national media, I'm sure that the articles will be out tomorrow, we'll see. I'll be reading most of them as no doubt you will be too. We can reconvene after that. In the varying forums however, this move is taking more of a beating than getting support.

I'd say a little bit more than middle of the road money. I'm hardly in the camp thinking that Oliver sucks, but he's not better than average or so, maybe slightly better. I simply think that there were better ways to spend that money. Edmunds got about the same, we no doubt could have had him for the same as Oliver or even less, and right now we have a huge void at LB that IMO is going to cost us something fierce this season.

I don't think that he would have made that kind of jump. Do you really see some other team paying him more than we just did with only a marginal improvement in his play? What if he doesn't improve, or he regresses because of the slate of far better offenses we play? There's that risk too. Just playing devil's advocate here.

I have to apologize, I mispoke, I meant in the national forums and the like. Even on other Bills' forums the move isn't exactly being viewed optimistically. Even here from what I've read only a minority seem to think the signing was a great one. Seems like the majority opinion here is of the "meh" variety, "wait and see."

I'm not planning anything, that's the coach's and GM's job. How can I plan to lose? And to insinuate that any single poster here wouldn't be ecstatic to win it all, I'm not even sure what to say. If we were to win a Super Bowl everyone on this board would be somewhere high-fiving and screaming their brains out regardless of what some posters think of them. We have absolutely no control over anything, even if we attend every game home and away. We'll see, but so far we've underachieved the preseason narratives, largely due to poor coaching in the playoffs. If that changes and if Oliver in this particular case becomes Quinnen Williams too, great. Bet what you want, but we won't know 'til it happens. To me, the single biggest tragedy that could happen to this team is another 6+ years of Marvin Lewis type coaching and team performance while Allen's the QB. Given our track record, if we don't win one with Allen I'd be the last one to suggest that Allen-like lightning strikes us twice.

Well, OK, tough to argue with any of that, but in the grand scheme, for $68M, $45M of which is guaranteed, there's a minimal level of performance that's expected. We, anyone, can argue whether he'll achieve that, but IMO we haven't seen it yet. IMO the money could have been used much better elsewhere. But again, at the end of the day, and given the speculation that we don't have any DTs signed for next season, or so it's been said here although that's news to me, I would chalk it all up to poor planning no matter how it's sliced. If some of Beane's other DL from the drafts had worked out, or even FAs, then perhaps he wouldn't have been what I consider to have been desperate to make this signing. Good GMs simply dont' put themselves in situations where they're forced to do things that aren't optimal. Beane seems to do it on a semi-regular basis. Why? Again, look at his drafts.

Well, now that we don't have a cakewalk season and not one of the easiest schedules in the league for the first time under McD, this season will certainly be a great case study for evaluating where we actually stand. If we're 13-3 again, then we can talk more. Otherwise, convenient that you failed to point out our troubles in getting past the Divisisonal round of the playoffs. I realize that's of lesser concern than the regular season record, just sayin'.

I hear ya, but at some point it's settling. As I've said, everyone here supporting the move complains about every other aspect of our team, that those units fall short, but for some reason Beane's doing a great job. It makes zero sense and does not logically align, thinking like that.

I as well. That's why I don't do it. I much prefer an intelligent back-n-forth even in disagreement. Almost no one is going to ever agree with anyone else here all the time. I align with several posters, but that doesn't mean we agree on everything. Some people simply have emotional trouble with opinions that aren't in their team view. Who knows, perhaps they're young, or perhaps they have bad things going on at home or something, you never know. I would think that trying to get along here would help though. Ahh well, that's the way forums are. LOL SMH ... I feel sorry for you. Not sure what I did to you personally, I dont' think anything. Have a great evening.