PBF81

We'll find out tomorrow or Tuesday, but I'm really starting to think that this move was made to reduce the cap hit to be able to squeeze Hopkins in.

Maybe, I know that I'm optimistic about the play of the offense this season. As I've said, I can see our offense being the best that the franchise has ever had. But if Dorsey cannot run it effectively that's not going to happen. Trying to guess what's going to happen there is anyone's guess. Otherwise, there are plenty of reasons for concern that we're all aware of. The results of the season will answer quite a few questions IMHO. I have a hunch that the discussions here 6 months from now or in January are going to be a whole lot different than they now are. Again, we'll see. Nothing to lose one's mind over. LOL The rumors are that it has freed up cap space this season. Otherwise how does one explain $45M guaranteed. It sounds like they guaranteed him more if he'd restructure and take less now. Possibly to sign Hopkins?

Not in the playoffs they're not.

That's clearly a planning thiing and that's on Beane. That's what he gets paid the big bucks to do.

I wouldn't classify it as doom and gloom, but rather questioning what they're doing and why. For example, there's little argument that this Oliver signing, since that's the thread we're in, has risk associated with it. Namely, whether Oliver improves his play or he doesn't. Whether he continues to get injured now that he's had a significant injury, also asking why he was injured since he seemingly stepped it up, but perhaps doing so against bigger and stronger competition was part of the reason he was injured. And for a guy that's typically only played 60% of the snaps in a rotation whereas at least one person has pointed out that DTs that make that kind of money typically don't play just over half the snaps. Not to argue, just to add some perspective. Von Miller's post-injury return, for that reason but also because he's 34 this season, are hardly inconsequential issues and he's getting paid quite a bit. White too, will he become what he was, or something in between last season and what he was? And of course our MLB issue and even our other OLB issue. Defensively, that on top of the fact that we didn't play well after Miller went out, and let's face it, the competition in those games wasn't stiff. Jones twice, Thompson, Fields, and White. Then of course our playoff performance on both sides. I can see how people would be suspect for what's to come this season. I know that I am, as I've stated, I don't see us finishing in the top-10 in defense this season. I can even see us finishing in the 15-20 range. Offensively people are still skeptical of our WR situation. The OL hasn't proven itself yet, Morse is a year older, McGovern and Torrence are both hopefuls but until ..., and we're really counting on Brown to take that next step towards serious improvement. A rookie TE only offers so much hope, and our RBs are a solid but hardly stellar BTTs guy and a utility RB. Then there's Dorsey. Are there going to be more tantrums from him throwing tablets, or are he and Allen going to be in sync and is he going to balance Allen out with some more rushing. That's a lot of stuff to process and come out thinking that we're definitely winning the division and heading for the AFC CG. That's without even discussing our playoff performances or a schedule featuring a slate of offenses the likes of which McD has never faced, either here or in Carolina. As with all, time will tell. Having said all of that, I think that a lot of the concern here is for the future, not so much for this season, and in the manner of the cap. We have several older players and average players with significant contracts. As I've said, are we looking for bargain contracts, or performance from those that we have under contract to the extent that we can win it all while Allen's here.

It's necessary to have players that step up in the playoffs as everyone knows. Unfortunately Oliver has not been among those that have.

LOL Thanks for the humor!!! I think I appreciate it more than anyone in these kinds of conversations. If Rick Astley shows up don't blame me.

Well, I guess we'll find out. I think you'd find the other two articles that I linked somewhere above, probably in the last page or two, very interesting on that point. They may change your take there. One was by SI the other by TSN as I recall.

Yeah, I saw it, and no doubt that have a different take on the receiving situation. I was merely talking what-if. We'll find out tomorrow. I mean it's kinda weird this Oliver extension out of nowhere. Did you read the piece that I posted that stated that Beane has admitted to speaking to Hopkins directly, and that stated that the reason why we possibly hadn't gotten a deal done was due to a lack of cap space? I mean that's pretty revealing. I'm merely putting two and two together combined with the fact that Oliver got $45M guaranteed, which is a lot given the circumstances, and also combined with the rumors that this has opened up cap space for us. Why the urgency all other things being equal. We'll find out tomorrow once the league office opens and the contract details are formally released, and if that was the reason, I expect that we'll hear about Hopkins signing with us by Tuesday. I obviously don't know anymore than anyone else, just trying to make sense of an otherwise odd situation.

Hopkins and Davis are not the same type of WRs though. Hopkins would more move in on the catches of Kincaid or possibly Harty and Shakir, or even Sherfield. He wouldn't take any from Diggs and again, he doesn't fill the role that Davis does either. It would be a terrible look at this point if they tossed Shakir overboard. Also, what of Shorter. Too many WRs, not sure why they'd go after Hopkins unless they were in win-now mode. Who knows, perhaps Pegs had a conversation with McBeane "explaining the importance of this season." I guess we'll never know. Let's see what happens re: this tomorrow. If we were to sign him my guess would be that he'd finish 3rd on the team in catches among WRs/TEs, ahead of both Knox and Kincaid, third among WRs behind both Diggs & Davis.

You have me laughing here. We are? I'm not at all convinced about that. LOL Humor is good too!!

A very interesting comment. Oliver's topped out at 60% snap count, which was this past season. One argument is that it's possible that his injuries arise from being smaller and outmuscled. I don't envision 70% for Oliver for several reasons. First being all the depth that we've added, which if we don't use it, what was the point. But moreover, that's not how McD seems to want to run the D. Of course there's some confusion as to whether Frasier and McD's D philsophies aligned the same way in that manner, but I think it's safe to say that McD prefers the rotational approach. FWIW and to your point. I think. LOL Indeed. I just brought it up because there's speculation now that we made this move in order to open up the cap space for bringing Hopkins on board. In fact, from today ... https://billswire.usatoday.com/2023/06/04/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-spoke-deandre-hopkins/ If the referenced "lack of cap space" was the issue, and Oliver's contract made that available, ... And frankly, if that's the case, then it definitely screams out "win now," future cap issues be damned.

Yeah, I realize that you disagree. these discussions wouldn't be much fun if everyone agreed with everyone else. LOL I was simply providing some basis for why I'm actually pretty bullish on Davis. I will also say, he's one of the better playoff performers. In fact, he's the only one that has single-handely won a playoff game for us in our last five playoff games, the one against KC the "13 Seconds" game. Even Diggs doesn't have that distinction. Had Davis not gone off in that game it likely would have ended more like the season prior in 2020. I'm very curious to see him play injury-free as well. I also don't understand this overemphasis on Hopkins. Hopkins will be 31 this season, has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons and clearly hasn't been the same player since, but for all the talk about character on this team, he was also suspended last season for substance abuse. And if we were to sign him after this Oliver signing, that would definitely be a sign of a "win now" scenario, but it would also question what they'd do with their trade-up 1st-Round pick Kincaid since both seem to fill a similar role. Davis still has ceiling at least, Hopkins has little if any. If we sign Hopkins and win it all, fantastic. But if we sign Hopkins and don't, ... If we do, hopefully it's a performance-driven contract. He's already said he'd like to play with Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, Herbert, or another QB that I forget whom, but who wouldn't. Here's a couple of interesting recent articles on Hopkins. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/deandre-hopkins-release-cardinals-contract-age/srkfypigejszgpeaehyqmxi3 https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/05/30/inside-deandre-hopkins-release-options-bills-chiefs

FTR I've never taken the position that he's not a solid #2. I think he's fine in that role. To me however, given the lattitude that's been given to Oliver for playing injured, why doesn't Davis get the same lattitude for playing with a nagging ankle injury for most of the season? Allen got it for his elbow too. All of Davis' 3rd-down catches went for 1st-Downs. He tied for 15th in the league in receiving TDs. He was open on many a play where Allen threw to Diggs instead, with Diggs even dropping some of those catches or with Davis being more wide open and often on single, not double coverage (or more) like Diggs was. He easily could have had 900 or 1,000 yards receiving and ranked in the top-10 for TDs. Here's the kicker, the team, meaning McBeane, are more apologetic about him than they are about Oliver. Yet people here are all ready to toss Davis overboard but are elated with Oliver's extension. Why? I mean if the "Beane & McD know better what they're doing than we do," why the difference in sentiments? And let's suppose that Davis has that breakout season that we've wanted, let's say he logs over 1,000 yards and has 12 TDs, certainly within the realm of reasonable possibility. What will that do to his contract value in a contract year? He'll command much bigger bucks. Would we pay it?

Thanks Interesting that you mention Davis. A lot of people using the "Oliver was injured" excuse, but few giving the same lattitude to Davis. For the mid-4th Round pick that Davis was, he's outperformed 11 or possibly 12 of the 16 WRs taken before him with the last one having been taken 36 picks before him in the mid-3rd. IMO it will be a huge mistake to let him leave. He's easily the best value (Round-to-Performance) pick that Beane's made. He runs low-percentage routes, not the routes of say a slot WR, he takes too much heat for a low catch%. It's a little low by comps, but not nearly as bad as many make out. I've provided the comps here before. Also, on that video of three plays that someone posted a few days ago, talking about how Saffold folded, on the first and third plays where Allen went to Diggs, Davis was equally open and easily could have logged another 50-70 yards on them.

That's a great question. To answer it we have to look at what the team looks like, and how it likely plays, without those players, right?. Would we be better this season w/o Oliver and with Ford in his spot, but Edmunds at ILB? Or will we be better with Oliver in there as it is and with who knows what the LB unit will look like now? There's a lot of subjectivity and speculation there, including how good this Williams rookie really is, but where do you see the biggest dropoff in the overall play of the defense given those two scenarios? BTW, here are PFF's preseason LB rankings. Edmunds makes the top-10. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-linebacker-rankings-2023-nfl-season Being only 24 last season, if you ask me, Edmunds is going to have a phenominal season this year. If that plays out, it will leave a whole lot of people second-guessing.

We'll find out, likely this season. Let's suppose it doesn't occur though, let's suppose he continues on in his inconsistent ways with low-end playoff performances and continues to get injured. Will you then still maintain the same position?

Well, OK, but fwiw you skirted most of my points. I don't care about contract value, I along with many other fans actually care about improving the team. Unless Oliver improves and stays injury-free that's not going to happen, even if he were getting paid less, or more for that matter more. Dollars DNE performance. A lot of people seem to be confusing the two. We could technically have the best "bargain team" in the league from a contract status and be entirely non-competitive. Again, we need improvements, not bargains.

I realize that. But keep in mind, what it also does is add more money to the existing state-of-play. In other words, it doesn't improve the team at face value. Nothing changes from a talent perspective. That improvement will depend upon several things, as you imply, particularly since more money doesn't make him bigger or faster. As you said, it will to some extent be predicated upon his injury status. Perhaps his injury status is related to his lack of size to some extent, and having to go up against bigger/stronger/faster opponents. Who knows, we don't, I don't think that anyone does. But his play this season was only marginally better than the prior two seasons where he wasn't injured. The extra money, as I commented on earlier, also doesn't make him bigger or faster. Right? Now let's suppose he does not improve, or continues to get injured. Should that occur, now we'll have that $45M guaranteed, or most of it, to deal with. It's not that the signing was bad in and of itself. For some teams it may have been brilliant. But for us, I and many other fans and writers/journalists/analysts out there would like to start seeing some of our rookies playing well, like they do on many other teams, in their first three or four years of their contracts, to the extent that they make an impact. Like White for example. All of the players that currently make this team as good as it is, are getting top market dollar for their status generally speaking. Allen needs no mention, but otherwise, Diggs (free-agent), Knox (2nd Contract), Dawkins (2nd Contract), Von Miller (free agent), White (2nd Contract), Milano (2nd Contract), Morse (free-agent), Hyde (free-agent), Poyer (free-agent). We can add Oliver now. (2nd Contract) Where are the rookies in their first four years that are providing above-average play much more impact-play for the team? We could argue Groot, but he wasn't good with Miller off the field. The jury's still out on him. We cannot continue to keep spending like that to keep the same level of play. Right? And what about the playoffs where we aren't good. In the biggest of games several haven't stepped up. Diggs for one. Oliver either. I've posted his playoff stats. Other than vs. the poor Skylar Thompson led Fins, which is hardly a standard, he's got a mere 1 sack in 7 playoff games, only 2 QB Hits, and 3 TFLs I believe. That's not commensurate with that contract. Anyway, to bring this full-circle with your comment, what if Oliver continues to suffer injuries because he's outsized and outmuscled? What if his play doesn't improve like so many are assuming? Will it help propel us in the playoffs? Will it matter what he's getting paid at that point? How would that $45M look then? Can we reasonably assume that all of those things align positively? I'd love to hear your thoughts on those. Truly. Again, it's a high-risk, decent (but not likely high reward) signing. The odds of Oliver turning into a top-10 DT are not great. In short, are we looking for bargains, or future bargains, or are we looking to build a team that is capable of winning it all. I'm not seeing a connection between the latter and Oliver's signing. Thoughts?

Two things, anytime a player needs someone "next to him" to be good it should raise questions. Otherwise, Ford's on another Beane-special 1-year contract. What if he shines here? Then what, contract wise? We give him a monster contract too? Just playing devil's advocate there. I get the whole "taking pressure off a player(s)" thing, but the best players ante-up regardless. Kyle Williams didn't always have great players next to him as one example. If Oliver improves as many seem to think that he will, then yes, the contract will be a bargain. But if not, then we'll be hamstrung by that $45M guaranteed whether it's Beane or another GM, it won't matter. Showing him the money doesn't make him better and it doesn't make him bigger or faster. As Washington stated, he'll have to dig that up from somewhere else. It's been 4 seasons and it hasn't happened though. It's another high-risk high-reward type of thing that we seem to lean towards. But $45M guaranteed is a lot for that kind of risk. If the guaranteed had been less such that we could have cut him after '24 (two more seasons) then it would have been better. It wasn't a lot for top DTs, but he's not one, but it was a lot for where he ranks. It's entirely predicated upon him improving. Without that improvement it's not going to look nearly as good. At the end of the day, when building a team, you have to have a solid mix of draftees that are performing to above-average standards, and not talking about ones on their second contracts, and we don't seem to have that. With maybe one exception, and this draft class in the balance, we don't have that. A team is always going to be cap-stretched if all of its talent comes at top rates for what it gets. It's nearly unanimous that he wasn't worth a 1st-round pick. If that's the case, then finding a DT in round 2 that plays to his level really shouldn't be that difficult. Right? The problem is Beane's track record on that.

"around here" is the operative term there. I also don't see anything about me projecting my intellect, I deliberately attempt to phrase things so as not to do things like that. If I failed somewhere else then it's my error. I don't see how I did that in what you referenced. I'd be happy to go toe-to-toe with Simon on a neutral playing field. Any day any time. And please, absolutely no disrespect intended, nothing but the fullest respect there, for real. Ingore, yes please. Thank you. I'm not a big fan of exchanges that get emotional and are driven by that. I don't ignore anyone, I'm a big advocate of the 1st Amendment. I don't respond to a few posters, but I don't ignore them. Otherwise, did you see what he said to me? Had I said that, or any number of other posters, I'd have been banned for a day or two. Did I complain? No. I was half-joking with the above and figured he may have been having a rough evening like many do. Who knows what's going on in peoples' lives when they come here as a refuge. As to the first part of what you quoted, that was to another poster with whom I was having a decent conversation. As to the rest, I've backed up everything I've said with data. The fact that it may not be popular across the board is a different matter. If Simon's interested in debating this team, I'm game. He can let me know. I'll set up a neutral forum for it and we can exchange our thoughts there in an organized and rational fashion after we each have time to respond to the other. That's the approach that I prefer. Just have him let me know. We can begin on this topic this week. I think it'd be a great point-counterpoint exchange if we do it in good nature. We could draw many views from outside of here.

Just wait 6 months.

Tipped passes are in the stats as well, under Passes Defended.

At the end of the day this signing does not improve the team. It merely adds to the cost of the status quo insofar as Oliver goes. All offseason people were complaining that it DL and DTs aren't good enough. So what's changed? Nothing but the price. Thats's a fact.

Agreed. The dropoff in performance at LB this season will be far more damaging than risking $45M guaranteed that Oliver, who won't get bigger or faster, actually improves.