PBF81

Roger We also have Rousseau over there, time for Rousseau and AJE to step up into full-time starting roles.

Enough talk. Let's see him put up. Let the play do the talking. No one wants to hear it. Besides, he and AJE share the position, right, ... let the youngster play.

I think I confused you on that with someone else. That's one of the issues with these mixed threads. Either way, we've beaten this to death, we'll see what happens this season. But majority fan opinion means nothing otherwise in that context. It's not an analysis, it's emotion. Well yeah, if that's the extent of your analysis. Then it is. LOL Nice work!

No, what I'm doing is stating that any changes post-Dorsey were obviously driven by Brady and which unmistakeably resulted in a fast greater emphasis on the running game. That should be more than clear by now. The team, local, national media all pointed out out, proudly. The extent to which that was made clear to Brady by McD is unknown, but we'd have to be folks to think that Brady did that all by himself for several reasons. As to the contrived #1/#2 thing, as you'll find out this season, that was a self-fulfilling prophecy without going into the details, ... again. Doesn't it raise questions to you that Davis "lost a step" too and that Kincaid & Shakir both "gained a step" as soon as Brady took over? This staff starting at the top hasn't been open or honest with us regarding Dogs for well over a year now. That seems to be McD's MO, the utmost of secrecy. That way no one can hold him accountable. If you really think that Allen's going to achieve record highs with this receiving cadre I'm not even sure what to say at that point. Until he gets to the NFL. Read what all the "experts" said on both or-Draft. Also, depends upon how he's used. Singletary has already proven that he was capable of more than we got out of him.

A lot of narrative driven superficiality there. I highly doubt that we even approach leading the league in paying yards or attempts. But allow me to ask, what was the difference then between Brady's O and Dorsey's, and why does Brady get credit for us going 6-1 to finish the season? You cannot have it both ways. A lot of narrative driven superficiality there. I highly doubt that we even approach leading the league in paying yards or attempts. But allow me to ask, what was the difference then between Brady's O and Dorsey's, and why does Brady get credit for us going 6-1 to finish the season? You cannot have it both ways. And you obviously completely ignored all that data.

No, it's not overdramatic at all. I just made a lengthy post in an exchange with hondo on page 4 of the biggest lingering questionmarks thread, you can see some of the other evidence there. But to tackle your data here, to start, we have to look at the difference in rushing from years prior, which again, some of that was addressed in the aforementioned post. But he had on/about twice the number of rushing TDs this season than in prior seasons. But part of it also is why does he even have to do the goal line carries? Part of it is because Cook is useless down there. Now we drafted Davis, is he really going to be much different than Singletary or Moss. Murray had 17 carries down near the goal line, 4 for TDs. Will Davis be better than that? He's similarly sized as Moss and Singletary. Why would they use him at the goal line? Murray was bigger and far more experienced. Either way, Josh had 15 rushing TDs this past season. Five from 16, 13, 11, 10 and 9. Two from 6. The other 8 were one from 3 out, two from 2 out, and five from 1 out. That's 15 carries for 83 yards if my quick math is correct. But under Brady in those 7 games, Allen had 8, over half of those rushing TDs, from 16, 9, 6, 2, and 1 four times. That's 8 carries for 37 yards. Even with those subtracted and then, after that, extrapolated for a full season, Allen would still post 134 carries on the season which is 10 more than his max rushing attempt season. But the question is why would they not run Josh at the goal line? Davis isn't much different than Singletary or Moss. But you also said it doesn't mean that we're going in the direction of being a running team, but McD has plainly stated that they want to get the rushing game going more. There was even a ridiculous discussion here in defense of that about a year ago talking about how the league is going back to ball-control football with more teams rushing again. But if that's true and McD believes it, then why has he continually, and still has, crafted his D to defend the pass. Cook's carries also jumped about 40% greater per game under Brady & complimentary football, by nearly 5 carries/game more. Murray's carries jumped by about the same percentage under Brady in the four games that he was used. Johnson was unused as a rusher under Dorsey, he came in under Brady and provided about 5 carries more per game. So yeah, we were statistically running the ball more and throwing less. Allen's attempts decreased marginally. On Brady's watch our average carries per game increased from 25.4 to 36.9, a 45% increase in running the ball. The balance of Run to Pass went from 25.4/35.0 or 43%, to 36.9/32.7 or 53%. We ran more than we threw. That doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense when you have Allen. Since we like to compare ourselves to KC, KC ran just under 40% of the time. Mahomes had 635 attempts to Allen's 579, and Mahomes had worse receivers generally speaking. It worked OK in the early going, as things often do with changes, but as teams caught on and adjusted, as they always do, not so much. The last three games were all nail-biters and our rushing production from our RBs plummeted as Brady's tenure proceeded.

Well OK, progress here. You're right, he could have. But he didn't. In short you're saying that he chose Brady over straw man options, nothing more. So no real options. I'm sure that there are some good up-and-coming options that are better than an OC that led his team to improved if not optimal offensive performance as well. And while you say that we don't know of McD contacted or interviewed any of them, it's a fair guess that he did not. To start, we probably would have heard if he hadn't automatically planned on retaining Brady in the role, particularly given that he was riding that 6-1 narrative. I don't believe that we were ever even teased with such a notion by him, his staff, or insiders, as typically comes out when something like that occurs. Here's the thing, one of the biggest gaps in realization on McD is that he's a control-freak. Naturally that will never be believed by McD apologists, why would they believe that, it's a negative trait in this capacity and one that holds a team back. We are a team, right, not a one-man show in coaching or performance, right? But that's understandable that McD supporters wouldn't think that. At the same time, it explains McD's coaching hires and decisions, ... fully. I've explained this many times. With his cherished defense being what has failed us in the playoffs generally speaking, without a single one of his defensive players stepping up with even the remotest of consistency in the playoffs, it fully stands to reason that if he hired a ringer OC and the offense improved and was optimized under Allen, that that OC would be in contention for McD's job. That simply stands to reason. People can disagree, dislike, and argue to the contrary, but that's how things work. And I'll pose the question once again; If Allen predated McD and our coach were fired, would McD have even made the shortlist for contention for the job much less gotten it? I see that as being an all but zero percent chance. So why would he hire someone to shine in terms of running the offense, and with anticipated issues in team building and this idiotically ill-fitted complimentary football with Allen as our QB, when he can hire people that he can keep his thumb on? What would be preventing him from doing that? So instead, we get yet another OC with poor performance results prior to coming here, including getting fired in-season towards the end of his second season in Carolina where he posted near bottom-dwelling offensive rankings, but that has a connection with McD via both Carolina and William & Mary and probably a significant life perspective as well. Why on earth is Brady going to rock the boat and insist on doing anything his way if directed otherwise? Do you really see that happening? We already know that McD knows little if anything about offense, so why on earth would anyone want him to mettle into what the offense does? And we know that he and Daboll, his strongest willed OC had issues despite those details not having come out. So when you say that he had options, he did, but he chose not to pursue any real options, and for sure nothing that everyone around the league would applaud other than via narrative. We all hope that. We all want a championship. This season would be fine with me in that regard, then we can relax and start working on #2 under Allen. BUT, think about what we're hoping for here. We're hoping that an OC very light on experience and one with bottom level performance and that was fired after not even 30 games, plus a few interim here with offensive performance trending downward on his watch, is the answer on a team whose offensive philosophy isn't built around the big-arm and creativity of our trending all-time NFL best QB, no, it's built around complimentary football and now a shorter high-percentage passing game, and that built around secondary receivers none of which have ever cemented themselves as much beyond JAG WRs. Allen posted three of his worst 18 career ratings last season under Brady, out of 7 games. That's more than any other season combined and only 6 of the others came under Dorsey (one) or in years since his early '18 and '19 pre-Diggs years. His completion % under Brady was his worst since his inaugural seasons after which many were calling for moving on from him if you'll recall, and only marginally higher than it was back then when everyone was complaining. That's been hidden because the year end aggregate number was reasonable because under Dorsey it was much higher. In the playoffs Allen posted his fewest yards thrown in all of our playoff games under McD, bottom 2, with our KC game having been the worst, Pitt second worst. Does this make any sense to you whatsoever given Allen's strengths? ... particularly coupled with him running so much? He had his greatest number of rushing attempts this past season in the playoffs in the KC game, and more rushing attempts per game than any other postseason. Brady had Allen running the ball at a record pace of 153 carries per season, which is 23% more than in the season with his greatest number of carries, yet, with nearly 100 fewer yards than in his two greatest rushing yard seasons otherwise. Brady also had Allen's passing YPG significantly less than in any of the past four seasons otherwise. Absolutely none of this makes much sense given who Allen is, ... unless, they have no answer on how to get better passing out of Allen. For anyone to suggest that our team is best of with Allen throwing as little as possible in his career, ... LOL, honestly, BTW, I'm not necessarily linking you with any of these viewpoints, I'm merely pointing it all out. But to bring this full circle, sure, we all hope that Brady's the answer, that McD really isn't driving what our offense does, and that Brady and he will bring home the hardware, but McD's had going into 9 seasons now to have his judgement right and this is as far off as it's ever been. The question is why. Some know the answer to that, others may never understand. How many seasons do we have to wait and see whether McD's got it right for OC finally? I for one have seen enough and while there's some percentage chance that Brady pulls it off, but it's gotta be very low. Hope and expectations based upon available data and information are two different things. We hope every season, even during the drought years.

LOL Fair. Friendly then. 🙂

But that's the narrative, and that's fair because you answered he question. In short, you disagree with that part of the narrative. This one is a little different. You originally said that he (McD) chose him (Brady) over other options. That's what was being challenged. I don't see those options. The circumstantial evidence points to McD taking heat for a failing season; firing Dorsey (his next scapegoat at the time); hiring the only one that made sense and was logical otherwise; never gave it a second thought that Brady wouldn't continue in the role after his miraculous 6-1 finish. Is there a shred of evidence that any other candidate was considered? If so, whom, because that would also fit into the discussion. Pegula's biggest worry is selling tickets. He cares more about that than he does winning a championship, which is second concern to all owners. There's no evidence that Pegula has worked his way into the picture yet. IMO this season is huge. We're a season out from McD's tenth season and from Allen turning 30 and have advanced past the D-round once during that tenure, only to have lost due to coaching blunders the following week, that you reference. McD's got a lot going on this season and has his work cut out for him. It's a lot to ask, but it's the situation he's crafted for himself and obviously wants.

Another charity wager? 10 O/U?

Of course, but that's not much of an offensive plan though, is it. It's simply stepping out of the way and letting a QB that you're lucky to have that's getting little support from you do it all. That's the point of a lot of people, if all we're going to do is step aside and let Josh play whatever version of streetball that he wants to during the playoffs, it's pretty unlikely we'll win a Super Bowl much less get our offense humming on all cylinders. Davis is no different than Moss. He brings an even lighter draft profile and potential to the NFL than either Singletary or Moss. They couldn't use Sing/Moss effectively, don't expect the to be able to use Davis effectively. And what happened to Cook, all we heard about last season is how Cook was playing at a pro-bowl level, now the hype has receded somewhat without any further games having been played. Over 10 on Allen rushing TDs would seem to be a no-brainer. We'll find out soon.

Two things to think about. First, regarding the first bolded part, Brady got credit for us going 6-1 to finish the season. It was said it was due to his changes. Yes, the offense did not play better and relied more upon Allen than ever before over the past four season for offensive production. His rushing carries, YPG, and rushing TDs were at team record levels under Brady. So was it Brady, or not, as the reasons for us going 6-1? There are a lot of contradictions in the narrative. Secondly, as to the second bolded part, McD made the change because he was taking heat midseason. Did he really choose Brady over other options, then or after the season? Which other options had he considered? Bonus question, have we ever heard of a proven above-average OC candidate that McD has ever considered?

Expect? KC .... until further notice ...

Well, one thing's for sure, we'll see where this trends during/after the season and see how it ages. Will McD need a 10th season to try to advance past the Divisional Round again? Enquiring minds want to know.

For sure some disagree, but many agree as well. One thing is for certain, this season will provide a whole lot more information on it all. And FWIW, we nearly lost both of our last divisional games against NE and the Fins, we needed a D TD to beat the Pats, with Mac Jones, and a PR TD to beat Miami. That 6-1 drops to 4-3 w/o those non-offensive TDs and we are 9-8 and watching in January. The first three games will be interesting. Despite all the talk about how tough our schedule is, our first three games are pretty easy. Jax isn't anything special, Arizona sucks, and we own Miami, here or there.

Did it look "smoother"? Our last three games were not particularly smooth. We should have dusted both the Chargers and Pats and nearly lost both games with the offense looking anything but smooth, and as to the Miami game, while we logged a lot of yards, it wasn't a particularly "smooth" game. But question for you, .... Set-up: Under Dorsey we looked fabulous, on both sides of the ball, for our first four games. In fact, while we all thought that it was a positive harbinger, I distinctly recall letting people know that that pace was not sustainable and was mocked for it. But I never expected us to go so flat in the next six games. Under Bray we also looked fabulous, for our first couple of games offensively, and then our fourth game, but after that the offense went flat again. Allen and the O in both cases, with again, Cook playing worse later on. Question: To what do you attribute those types of patterns and inconsistency?

I can see that as well.

Well, OK, so for you it's all about who's wrong and who's right. Noted. I look for people that have some depth to their statements and what they post here. But you define one of the major issues in social media. So that's a good perspective I suppose.

Good luck with the Under. 8 of his 15 rushing TDs were in his last 6 games under Brady. It was one of the hallmarks of the Brady offense. At least we're getting warmer on what's going on under Brady. Anyway, if he produces rushing TDs at the same rate under Brady as he did this past season, then he'll have around 20. It was worse under Brady in the playoffs where he averaged 10 carries for 73 yards & 1.5 TDs/game.

Keep in mind though that he's had Allen favorites Diggs & Davis ahead of him. Now he's the favorite. It's going to be a very interesting season from the offensive perspective to be sure.

Hence the allowance for that. On the flip side, Jackson sucks in the playoffs, not as bad as Bledsoe was, but not good. So it's hardly a feat to keep an offense led by a QB that's had a mere one solid playoff game, this past season, and this past season against a wild-card team with a below-average pass defense. But otherwise? Not. Once in 8 seasons. At the end of the day, the question is what they plan on doing with this collection of receivers. It's not a typical WR cadre that a team in the modern era would piece together. Particularly with a QB like Allen. It's going to take some imagination and creativity to get it to work. The question du jour is whether or not they're up to the task.

Great post and thanks for the correction on the Jets!! It's fair although I would contest a couple of things, and some I've never argued contrarily. But consider also, that while Brady gets credit for our 6-1 stretch to put us in the playoffs, ... and win the division, coupled with Miami's late season mini collapse, the defense stepped up in spades in those 7 games. We would have lost the Pats game except for a D TD, and our Miami game was won on the lone play of that PR TD. Our D allowed 17 or fewer points in four of those seven games. During our 2-4 losing streak just prior to Brady's takeover, we allowed 17 or fewer points just once, against the Giants, which arguably had the worst offense in the league, ranking 30th in scoring and 29th in yardage. In those last 7 games our D allowed more than 22 points only once. In the six games of that prior stretch we allowed 24, 24, 25, and 29 to teams that were, quite frankly, ranking 13th, 22nd, 26th, and 30th in yardage offense and 14th, 16th, 19th, and 31st in scoring. Had our D continued to play as it did during that 2-4 stretch, we wouldn't have made the playoffs. Consider, that D TD against the Pats had we not gotten it, takes us out of a division win and puts us at the same 10-7 that got the Steelers the 7th seed, not sure which of us owned that tiebreaker for that 7th seed, but it's incredibly likely that we'd have lost two or three more games had our D not started playing better. So to your points, there is most certainly also a defensive element that was clearly not present in our 2-4 skid. We have a habit, perhaps a bad one, of stepping up at key times but letting ourselves down in terms of consistency. (Dallas in a huge game and the Jets in Brady's debut eg.) That's a trait that should befall coaching. It's not a positive, that inconsistency.

Agreed. But consider, if he weren't here, we'd have had a top-5 draft pick this year. The only reason why we even made it to the playoffs much less won the WC round was because of him. He can't be superman in every single playoff game. Again, agreed, but again, he cannot be superman in every playoff game, yet, that seems to be the expectation by some. But that also drives home the point that I've been making, on those occasions where he isn't his normal playoff self, the rest of the team needs to step up. That has yet to happen in 8 seasons under McD. It's not happened even once. Well, there's a long list of people that are frustrated by that. But again, if we don't let Mahomes hit MVS deep for 32 yards from our 48 to set-up their 4th Q TD, then it's quite likely that we're not frustrated. MVS, not Kelce, Hill, or anyone else.

Valid points and completely agree on field position. Red Zone performance is also key, but Cook was essentially worthless in the RZ, in general, not simply in one or the other half of the season. As to the rushing component, again, no disagreement, but where I step off is in Allen doing all the heavy lifting in that regard. 48 carries for 246 yards, 5.1 ypc, and 7 TDs in the first 10 games. 63 carries for 278 yards, 4.4 ypc, and 8 TDs over the last 7 games. As Rodney Dangerfield says in Caddy Shack, that's making his money the hard way. Again, there are some complexities to this, you seem to understand that. We could discuss this at length and into perpetuity. LOL I'm incredibly curious myself which is why I stated in the recent Questionmark/Concerns thread what the O scheme under McBrady will look like. And those saying that McD isn't influencing Brady's O aren't being honest with themselves. McD has a philosophy, which he's often and clearly stated as Complimentary Football and which he's even superficially explained. So obviously Brady's going "get with the program," but the question is whether that plays to Allen's strengths the best, or not; whether it minimizes the risks of his getting injured, or not; whether the team as a whole plays better that way, or not, or just Allen. Cook did not play better under Brady. For example, under Dorsey Cook logged a rushing 1st-Down on every 3.9 carries. Under Brady it was 5.3. That includes one rushing TD under both. It was Allen that accounted for all but the entirety of the difference in our rushing difference. A year earlier the same people preaching how that was good were preaching that Allen needs to run less. That came from the top, McD. So we'll see. What, six and a half more weeks 'til our first preseason game. LOL

Getting into some complexities there, and I hear ya, but keep in mind that offensive scheme style also impacts yardage offense. i.e., teams that don't pass well but run well or simply run more, will have worse yardage offenses, and there's a correlation on D as well. There are a number of things that impact all of it, but at the end of the day it's scoring that matters. Let's see how it shakes out this season.