PBF81

I can see a little merit in what you say, but that last part I'm not seeing. Let's look at the 2018 season, Brady still posted top numbers with Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Chris Hogan as his top-3 WRs, he won the Super Bowl. Which validates that point alone. Rodgers is another great example, he's hardly had great talent and generally not much more than Brady had, but he's posted very good passing numbers. As to the rest, I would agree entirely if the opponents that we played all had top passing defenses, but they didn't. Last season Cincy had the 16th ranked passing D and Miami the 27th, which allowed both Diggs and Davis to post good games vs. Miami. It's not as if Cincy's passing D was "unsolveable," right? That's what good coaches do. In 2021 NE had the 2nd ranked passing D and KC the 27th ranked passing D, and against KC, one of the worst passing Ds in the league, Diggs had 3 catches for 7 yards. Chase, Burrow's #1 had 6 for 54 and a TD against the same team in the playoffs. In KC's game vs. Pittsburgh in the same playoffs, the washed up Roethlisburger's #1 also had a better game with 5 for 34 and a TD with Roeth spreading the ball out efficiently, which also feeds into the greater point. Again thought, fairly, there is some validity to your point in general. Let's also not lose sight of the original argument, the better QBs do more with what they do have. It also hasn't escaped notice that every single offseason we talk about how our WRs suck as if we can only be good enough if we have several of the top-10 WRs or something. It makes me wonder that if a QB really needs all the best WRs then how can he be that good. I digress on Brady and the "ancient history" argument to an extent as well. It's not as sexy to have a bunch of average WRs, but the emphasis in the league these days is passing, but that doesn't mean that a team cannot succeed without a "top-5" WR. To me, my argument from the onset is the lack of properly optimizing our WRs. I wasn't happy that they released Beasley, who was Allen's outlet during his best season easily, but most disturbing re: that was that they made no backup plan, at least not a good one, to take his place. I understand the negative sentiments, which wouldn't have made me get rid of him or renegotiated his contract, but if you do that you should at least have a plan in replacement, we did not, at least not a good one. Then there's Hines, who was the Colts 3rd leading receiver in his rookie season in 2018, their 2nd leading receiver in 2019 & 2021, and leading receiver in 2020, and here he had 9 targets in as many games, catching 5 of them, whereas in Indy he averaged 68 targets and 52 catches/season. You're never going anywhere if that's how your talent is managed.

You actually said a mouthful here. You hit the nail right on the head, and I think that the big disconnect between the two sides of this is the overlooked-by-many fact that in the playoffs McD is routinely outcoached, not even by noted top coaches or by teams with as much talent as we have. The other thing that is seemingly overlooked that you touched on, is the 2021 season playoff loss. We actually had that game won, and the entire reason why we lost it is precisely because McD prevented us from finishing/closing. In the meantime he hasn't done even a shred of anything to overcome any notion that he's capable of improving. The strongest argument that I can see by those arguing that he's not holding us back is that some day if he's here long enough the stars will essentially align, whether it be an easy schedule, back luck by our top opponents (like QB injuries), us peaking, or a combination of things, etc., then he too can win a Super Bowl. But at the present time, McD's been a liability come playoff time. We haven't outplayed most of our playoff opponents, including the games we've won. The only playoff game where both the O and D showed up was vs. the Patriots in that blowout and Allen was a man possessed in that game on our offensive side, while on the defensive side the best WRs that the rookie Mac Jones had that season were Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne who are like our depth WRs here. Imagine the outcry here if those were our starters.

OK, let's start here. What has Diggs done in our last five playoff games that Davis has not done? Secondly, what's your explanation of our 2021 season KC playoff game? Thirdly, back to my point, taking simply Brady's second and third Super Bowl seasons, Brady had as his second WRs in those seasons, first in one of them, Patten and Givins. Are you suggesting that either one of those was better than Davis? Before you answer that you may want to take a look at their career stats, catch%, etc. What you said is simply mimicking the narrative. There's little behind it. Remember, our problem is in the playoffs, not in the regular season racking up stats.

By a regular season #1 or #2 Defense on top of it. Then factor in our playoff loss in 2019 whereby our Defensive geniosity collapsed entirely in allowing the Texans to log nearly 200 yards of offense in scoring 19 points in about 20 minutes at the end of the game, to ***** defeat from the jaws of victory and a 16-0 lead. The rest of our playoff victories were hardly impressive and the only one that both sides of the ball showed up in was the Patriots WC round game in the 2021 season. We had that middle KC game won too, but our genius head coach seemed to think that handing the game away on a silver platter was a good idea at the time. Our playoff history is anything but impressive, if anything it's the opposite. We now have as our top-five most senior coaches, coaches that were with McD in Carolina. Not coincidentally, Carolina's playoffs track record seems to mimic what ours here is. It's definitely going to be an interesting season.

No QB should need the best WRs in the league to shine if they're any good, which Allen is. He might need more mentoring on the importance of the much higher-percentage short-medium passing game, but otherwise he has what he needs, particularly with Kincaid. There's some misperception here that in order to succeed a QB seems to need two of the five top WRs in the league or the like. Look at what Brady did, often with incredibly average WRs. In fact, he took very mediocre WRs like Welker, Branch, Givens, Brown, Caldwell, and Edelman, a 7th-round draft pick from a nothing school and made his living with them, largely. Sure, he had Moss for a couple of years, and Gronk, a TE who was often injured and only posted four 1,000+ yard seasons contrary to some perceptions, but generally speaking Brady didn't have top WRs. Favre, Marino, and a whole bunch of others didn't always have more than very good WRs, and yet they were at the top of the league in passing regularly. The problem with us is that you have to use the players that you have optimally, and that isn't something that we've seen to date with Allen at QB. Whether that changes this season remains to be seen. But if not, at some point we have to quit blaming the WRs or bust draftees. Judging by last season, Dorsey's got his work cut out for him.

Interesting. I guess if I had to order them, here's how I'd place it in greatest odds order: 1. Losing in the WC Round (Good) 2. Losing in the Divisional Round (Good) 3. Not winning the division (aka being a Wild-Card) (Good) 4. Winning the AFC (Poor) 5. Missing the playoffs (Slim) 6. Winning the Super Bowl (Slim to nil) Where I'm probably underestimating is that this will be the toughest AFC East division since Levy's days, possibly even longer since only Miami/Shula/Marino were consistently good back then. It should also be the toughest conference that we've seen in many many years, predating McD's arrival. We've had it pretty easy 'til now, except for Brady's Pats against whom we were 0-6 against with average PF/PA of 10.7 / 24.8. But for now I'm finding it difficult to think that we'd miss the playoffs unless Allen misses a significant amount of time. If that happens I'd put the odds of us even making that playoffs at Slim-to-nil. Agreed, it's shaping up that even more so than last season Beane's gone all-in this season. Toughest division in decades though. This the first time in decades where there's been more than one two good QBs in the division, and NE with Jones/Belichick, unfortunately, cannot be ruled out either.

I would have trouble with losing in the WC or D Round again, which should be considered entirely unacceptable by every loyal and true Bills fan given that we have Allen. People constantly compare McD (with Allen) to Reid (with McNabb), which besides being absurd for that reason, is even more absurd when we consider that in his first 6 seasons Reid lost in the D-Round once, went to the NFC CG four times, and advanced to the Super Bowl once. McD in his first 7 seasons has lost in the WC-Round twice, lost in the D-Round twice, and lost in the CG once, with each and every playoff loss being humiliating, arguably more humiliating then the one before. In 2017 we posted our worst offensive performance of the season and lost to Marrone's Jags with Bortles at QB. In 2019 we allowed nearly 200 yards in the last 20 minutes of our Wild Card loss to Houston, giving up 19 points and not even being able to score a FG in OT. In 2020 we were blown out by the Chiefs who posted one of the best offensive games of the season against us. In 2021 we had the AFC Championship won, but McD decided that we didn't want to win and handed it to Reid and the Chiefs in what is the biggest playoffs coaching blunder in modern history if not in league history altogether. It would have been the equivalent of punting on the infamous "Wide Right" play so as to improve our field-position as the clock hit 0:00. Last season, 2022, LOL, worst overall playoffs to date, barely eking by Skylar Thompson, who likely won't ever start another NFL game, before getting utterly blown out by Cincy. So yeah, what's not to get excited about come playoff time, and now with increased competition and better opposing coaching. Like someone said, McD's the third best coach in our division. Saleh had his team playing far more inspired football with fire and passion than McD did, and that was with historically bad crap at QB. McDaniel whowed more imagination last season than McD has in 6 seasons here. See above.

Well, it will definitely be interesting to see how relaxed everyone is following this season now that we have the Carolina coaching staff from McD's days @ Carolina. Why am I not inspired.

People overrate the extent to which McD is responsible for our success, and underrated the extent to which he is responsible for not winning it all. Give any coach that we've had over the past 20 years this team with Allen, and they don't do worse. As to 2017, he was a game better than Ryan's team two seasons earlier with a similar roster, had the same record as Marrone in 2014 did with Orton at QB, and made the playoffs on pure luck with two other notably more qualified 9-7 teams missing out. And nothing says success like giving up a 16-0 lead to a mediocre Houston team in the playoffs while allowing 264 yards in about 20 minutes to lose in the WC Round there. I mean what, absolutely phenominal defensive coaching there, superlative. LOL Other than that, the only success that McD has had was after Allen exploded to become one of the best QBs in the history of the game. It's beyond comprehension as to why he'd have ever achieved more than 7-10 wins, ever, without Allen taking that leap. It's mindboggling to assume anything else. The only reasons are excuses.

Wow, so just to clarify you would put the greatest odds on us not winning the division then?

Yup. And Allen's not even as good as McNabb was.

Or of curiosity, where would you put the odds of those happening? A. Not winning the division B. Missing the playoffs C. Losing in the WC Round D. Losing in the Divisional Round E. Winning the AFC F. Winning the Super Bowl

It's all good now, McD has things right where he wants them, and it's not as if he's a control freak or anything. The entirety of our coaching staff, top 5 guys including McD, are the ones that led the Panthers to greatness under Riverra while McD was there. Collectively they're obviously the best coaching staff in the league because they all know each other so well. And honestly, can you even argue that with their trophy case! We're in good hands with the coaching staff that the Panthers had under Riverra, a world-class coach in his own eyes, here in Buffalo. I mean just look the collective season unit rankings and stories playoff histories. And just think about the greatness here! If we had McD here in the "Wide Right" game, it never would have happened, we'd have punted for better field position when the game had ended. Everything's going to be great don'cha know.

Could have easily been done in 2021. It essentially was done. We had it. Allen was on fire! So why wasn't it? Because the coach that just got extended made arguably the biggest reprehensible coaching blunder in the modern history of the NFL playoffs. He undid it. True story!

Like McD in 2017 & 2019, Belichick got in on an easy schedule with 8 of his wins coming from non-playoff teams and 7 of them coming from mostly the worst teams all with losing records. As with any coach, I'm not going to hand out particularly credit for capitalizing on an easy schedule, the "you can only play who's on the schedule" rap aside. That's true, but it does not alter things one iota. He got obliterated in those playoffs too, which says more than beating 8 easy teams en route to 10 wins. Anyway, no interest in debating McD v. BB, or even BB otherwise. The fact stands, that in 10 other seasons without Brady, Belichick's track record as a head coach wouldn't have gotten him anything else other than another DC job. Meanwhile, Brady went on to win another SB with a relatively average on a good day head coach, while leading the Bucs to a 32-18 record otherwise, something that that franchise has never achieved in its entire existence. Again, not really the point. The question remains, is the talent on this team being optimized? it'd be a great poll question. Go ahead and pose it.

True, but also entirely not the point.

Our standard as fans back in the '90s was a lot different. The drought era took its toll on the fans here. Now a good regular season record and simply "making the playoffs" is good enough. I remember being massively dejected with every Super Bowl loss except for the Skins one, which I kind of expected. Lead foot Rypien had the best or one of the best OLs in NFL history.

I'd rather have a coach that's proven he can at least be above average w/o a franchise QB. Belichick doesn't even have a winning record. He's 77-87 w/o Brady, two playoff appearances, got killed in both losses, and therefore has one playoff win, over the Bledsoe-led Pats, in the WC Round while he was at Cleveland. Like McD, he's lucky he lucked into Brady. He can thank Mo Lewis for that. He was stuck on Bledsoe like McD was stuck on Peterman.

I'm not sure about that, I'm well into the Brady entirely made Belichick rather than Belichick made Brady camp. I think that the jury's pretty much come back on that as well. Belichick is what, 1-2 in playoff games w/o Brady and has a track record no better than McD's, worse even, in that regard. He's only made the playoffs in 2 of 10 seasons, getting blown out in losses in both, in his other ten seasons of coaching w/o Brady at QB. I'll PM you as to who I'd have my eye on if we were open to a change after this season, which we're not.

Particularly against the Chiefs and Bengals in the playoffs. The Miami game, shutting down 7th-round rookie Skylar Thompson while holding his offense to only 24 points, 31 total for the team, well, lets just say that Bill Belichick would be proud. I mean what more can one ask than "13 Seconds," a cataclysmis coaching blunder for the ages. A few more of those and I agree, it will be "impressive."

LOL, thanks for the injection of humor at the end there. It's very much appreciated and not lost on me. Here's the point though, Allen can't play like he has forever, it's unlikely that he'll be playing that way for more than 4 or 5 more seasons, assuming he doesn't get injured, elbow or worse, so it's important to take full advantage of that, which we're simply not doing. Here's a hypothetical scenario. Suppose we continue, post good to great regular seasons, continue to underperform/underachieve in the playoffs, and in three seasons Allen suffers an injury that disallows him from being anything close to what he was, whatever that injury may be. Suppose by that time all we've done is "gone to the playoffs" those three more seasons, gone 1-2 in the Wild-Card around, and lost in unceremonious fashion in the Divisional Rounds, which at the present time is the standard. What would be the talk amongst Bills Mafia do you think?

Again, absolutely no one has questioned our ability to do exceedingly well in the regular season, despite a division full of crap QBs. We can't name one that's been any good since Brady left and we got annihilated going 0-6 vs. the Brady-led Pats, same coach. But again, you seem to imply that by pure coincidence and "enough shots" it will happen. Is that our hope? So again, the question to you as well, is how many seasons of "enough shots" would you say that they get before we move on if they cannot get it done? Polian was here the same number of seasons as Beane now, McD the same as Levy's first 7 seasons. We have Allen who's indisputably better than Kelly ever was, even in his best season, and even accounting for differences in the league then v. now. Levy's team in his first 7 seasons, went to the Super Bowl 4 times, won the AFC Championship four times (same thing I realize, just restating), was 5-1 in Divisional games, 1-0 in Wild-Card games, was 2-2 on the road in the playoffs, 2-0 in his last four seasons. McD's team in as many seasons has never gone to the Super Bowl, is 0-1 in AFC CGs, 1-2 in Divisional games, 0-4 in road playoff games, and 3-2 in Wild-Card games with two of those wins having been barely and another two against two teams led by a rookie QB (Jones) and Skylar Thompson (one of the down to the wire games also), two QBs destined for career backup status. So if I get this straight, you're favorably comparing the two, right? And you're completely ignoring the fact that we have Allen today, arguably the most unique QB, positively, in league history. Meanwhile, you conveniently skirt the fact that most of the best talent on this team has come from that same Free-Agency that you use to counter the argument. I understand though. If there's no answer there's no answer.

That's all fine and dandy, but the question that I keep asking the most ardent McD (and Beane) defenders in the forum here, yet which to date has yet to be answered, is how many years should that "some point ..." take to occur? Also, in your post there seems to be an underlying premise that with better coaching that would happen, or already have happened (AHEM, "13 Seconds" in 2021), but that our hope lies in pure happenstance. Just sayin'

Yes, in 7 seasons. Three wild-card wins, once over a Skylar Thompson led Fins, which we barely won, once over a pretty bad NE team led by a rookie QB that seems to be destined for career back-up status, once more in a wild-card game whereby we were outplayed yet won a down-to-the-wire squeaker, and one divisional game whereby the offense played its worst game of the season. 0-4 on the road, 1-2 in divisional games with that last aforementioned game as the win, and 0-1 due to a historically noted horrific error in judgement by the one you're defending. On top of all that, a trend towards the worse, and doing less with more. It would seem that this has become the standard for Bills football these days. The drought era damaged our fanbase's expectations for what good football really is in a very serious way.

I'm getting ready to do an analysis on Polian/McD/Kelly contrasted with Beane/McD/Allen. Just looking at the data, both now thru 7 years, except for Beane who has only 6, is telling.