PBF81

Article linked on the home page says $160. Shameful!

Hopefully, and you'd think, but the league seems to bend the rules for marquee players too.

2022 team drop % Singletary 11.5% (1 TD/15 1st-Downs) Shakir 10.0% (1/7) Davis 9.7% (7/35) Cook 9.4% (1/5) McKenzie 9.2% (4/27) Knox 6.2% (6/25) Diggs 5.2% (11/74)

Is that really true, or more narrative than truth? Did you look at the data before saying that?

Your post isn't lost on me. Many simply don't know how to analyze this stuff and instead resort to the simplest interpretation of stats in isolation and in light of that. Consider, if a WR drops a ball, but subsequently makes a big catch for a 1st Down, that's huge. I'll take that all game long. For most here, they can't get past the drop% narrative and can't help hating on the guy despite his specialty in running low percentage routes. It's similar with sacks, other than to prop up a player's perception, which can be valid, what good is a team logging two sacks on a drive that results in a TD. Drive-ending sacks (on 3rd-downs) would be a much more useful data point/stat, but they don't keep 'em. You have to research those yourself, which takes a lot of time. Davis is a big-play generating machine. That's why the team likes him. I've tried to point this out but some simply won't have it. He compares favorably with Davante Adams in some ways. Diggs & Davis were responsible for over 50% of the team's receiving 1st-Downs. Davis had 44% of Diggs' catches sand 47% of Diggs' 1st-Downs, yet Dogs is heralded while Davis is slammed. Players around him that have the same number of 1st-Downs, typically have notably more catches required to do it. Some here, by implication, would have you think that 2 catches, say one for 9 yards on 3rd-and-12, and another for say 7 yards on 1st-and-10 on a drive that stalls on that series otherwise, going 2-for-2 (aka 100% catch%) is more valuable to the team than dropping a ball on 1st-and-10 but then catching one on 3rd-and-10 for 17 yards and a 1st-down (aka 50% catch%) and extending the drive. Missing for most on that scenario is your 1st-Down %: first player, 0% 1st-Downs, second player 50% 1st-Downs. Same with sacks. 10 sacks on a drive that results in a TD are worthless, other than in fantasy football, whereas one single sack that ends a drive is very meaningful. The game is about sustaining drives and scoring TDs, Davis does both well, very well. The problem is that to many people these days view real football like they do fantasy football or simply don't put two and two together to relate the stats & data to the actual real game ramifications. It's easier to do and requires less thought and definitely less of an analytical regimen and aptitude.

It's bigger than the Clarence one. I know that freddyjj provided the maps link, but it's where the MacGregor's on Empire Blvd. used to be, on the south end of Irondequoit Bay. Great place, not sure why MacGregor's didn't make it. Lockdowns presumably.

Mid-July, per them. It's a restaurant, so all kinds of things can delay it, but that's their bogey.

IMO Pederson/Taylor is notably better than McD/Dorsey. The two teams aren't that much different otherwise, they have a better RB situation, particularly with the one they just drafted, we have slightly better WRs, which could change depending upon whether or not Diggs explodes, TE situation seems to be comparable. OL, I'd probably take theirs over ours. On D their starting lineup appears to be younger overall and comparable otherwise. Offensive HC is key there.

On top of that, Lawrence's 2nd season was better than Allen's, and he had no better WRs. In his rookie season he had Urban Meyer as a coach, ... YUCK! They're a well-coached team, by offensive types. I'm pretty sure that they'll do just fine. IMO Press Taylor's going to be a hot commodity for a HC gig following the season.

I'm sure that some said the same thing about the Eagles last season. Just sayin'.

Lawrence isn't a fluke. Do with the data what you will. 🙂

They started 2-6 but won 6 of their last 7, and 7 of their last 9. Remember, they had that ***** Meyer as coach the year prior. Lawrence in his third season now. They also played respectable in the playoffs and made @KC a game into the 4th Q despite being outmatched. Not one should sleep on them.

I think that a blue metalic helmet could work as long as the Buffalo were white with a red stripe.

Yes, good stuff there. In thinking this entire extension through, I've been trying to figure it out. Yesterday it hit me, Pegula's doing the exact same thing with the new stadium & PSLs/Ticket-Sales. I think that's why he did this, he seems to think that if there's a change then it could impact ticket sales and enthusiasm going into the new stadium in 2026, which IMO is going to be 2027, which is why he made it only two years and 'til then. I could be wrong, but that's the only logical explanation I can think of. But here's the rub, exactly what you said. In trying to achieve "stability" and "continuity," if McD has another two seasons, maybe even just one, of playoff futility and egregiously bad coaching, there's going to be a monster shift in the narrative surrounding McD and quite possibly even Beane, that could end up being worse. And what if they cannot harness Allen and he suffers a bad injury, that will send them packing as well. We'll see, just my theory. As everyone says, it makes no sense on the surface and Pegs has come out and made reference to it having to do with the grand opening.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Thanks! I would say however that more called running plays certainly fall within the purview of coaching, whether that directive come from the top or from the OC. There have been a number of games where our rushing is working great, but for some reason they stop running the ball. I have no idea why and that's not likely on "Allen's DNA," it's on coaching. I mean here are our numbers of carries not by Allen by game, starting at the season opener: 15, 20, 15, 14, 13, 21, 21, 13, 21, 30, 19, 29, 14, 19, 25, 16, 22 (P), 11 (P) In rank order by # of carries: 30, 29, 25, 22 (P), 21, 21, 21, 20, 19, 19, 16, 15, 15, 14, 14, 13, 13, 11 (P) Add to that Allen's 124. Agree on the season, it's a big season IMO, whatever the thoughts related to our performance(s) after the season, what happens will be self-defining.

The White play was one play that set the Texans up at our 28. Let's not turn it into a TD play. As to what happened in OT, it never should have gone to OT, just like the '21 KC game, proper coaching would have prevented it, in both instances. Such as I mentioned above with running more. McD seems to have a knack for keeping our opponents in games during the playoffs.

Out of deference to you I watched the end of the game now. What I see is Carlos Hyde (aka not Derrick Henry) having some huge runs, Watson one big designed run for 20 and a TD, followed by a rollout right for a 2 PC, White playing Hopkins tight with no YAC. That was their first scoring drive. Then I see Stills making a big 20-yard catch setting up a FG with decent coverage by Kevin Johnson who slipped at the end. On the next play I wouldn't say that Hopkins "smoked" White, he did beat him in coverage tho. That only put the ball at our 28 however. After that I see Darren Fells catch a huge 14-yard pass on 3rd-and-3 from our 15 over Milano that set up their TD. You know, Darren Fells, Undrafted, UC Irvine, 5 teams in 8 seasons, averaged 16 catches for fewer than 200 yards/season. Then a ridiculous defensive play with confusion all over the field leading to a wide-open Hyde on a screen pass for the TD. 19-16 with 19 points scored within 12 minutes. I also couldn't help but notice that after Houston's first TD, now up 16-8, we didn't run the ball once despite Singletary having averaged 4.5 YPC up to that point. Conventional wisdom, aka not requiring an "expert" world-class coaching mind or anything even close, suggests perhaps run the ball a bit to take the clock down and prevent the D from focusing too much on pass-rush, but we do the opposite with 5 straight passing plays resulting in a fumble on a 3rd-and-8 taking only 1:33 off the clock. That was at midfield. So spin it as you wish, there's plenty in there to complain about the coaching on. It was hardly one or two plays, the Texans put togther three scoring drives for 177 yards and 19 points, of which Hopkins was not responsible for 20 plays and 111 Yards of. Either way, if we're going to vindicate McD from any blame for that, then it's also fair to exempt him from any credit for Allen/Davis going off vs. KC and Allen going off altogether in the '21 playoffs. At least be consistent. No doubt, but the offense that season averaged 19.6 points and Allen & Co. hit that number, albeit against a 19th ranked scoring D which had allowed an average of 24.2 PPG that season. The bigger crime, as has been the pattern in the playoffs throughout McD's tenure, was our #2 ranked D which had allowed an average of 16.2 PPG and which had allowed more than 17 points only 6 times, three times to teams ranked 1st, 7th, and 12th offensively (Balt, NE, Philly), allowed 19 points within less than a quarter, and to a team ranked 14th in offense and possessive of only one premier offesive player, Hopkins. Watson was good but far from great, ranking 13th in Passing Yards and 11th in Passing TDs that season. The better teams step up, not down, in the playoffs.

That's another loaded argument when the QBs in the division have been Newton, Jones, Zach Wilson, Darnold, Fitzpatrick, and a rookie and otherwise issue-laden Tua that hasn't completed a full season yet. Kind of like Belichick/Brady having 20 years of crap QBs to "contend" with essentially handing them a pass in the division throughout that tenure. To wit, McD was 0-6 vs. Brady's Pats while barely being able to average 10 PPG in those 6 matchups. McD also hasn't exactly disproven that he can't beat better teams in the playoffs otherwise either. My point is that there are better arguments. Sounds good for now, but allow me to ask, for how many more seasons if further playoff futility and underachievement continues?

Well, OK, fair. I made an assumption there. But when you say that ... To me that's akin to saying It comes down to my belief that McDermott and Beane > Rick Smith and Bill O'Brien. A lot of Coach/GM tandems are better than Rivera and Gettleman. Or in our context, better than Donahoe/Williams or Whaley/Marrone & Ryan. None any great shakes. Just sayin', it says very little given that Rivera is an incredibly average coach at best. So far, McD hasn't even achieved the highest that Rivera has however, which was at least a Super Bowl appearance, which Rivera did in his 5th season, McD now in his 7th. Both have a similar playoff history otherwise; Rivera is 3-4 in the postseason. 1-1 in WC games, 1-2 in D-Round games, 1-0 in CCGs, and 0-1 in the SB. McD is 4-5 in the postseason. 3-2 in WC games, 1-2 in D-Round games, 0-1 in CCGs. N/A in teh SB. Neither has won a road playoff game. I'm not seeing much of a difference come playoff time. In fact, their teams' playoff performances are remarkably similar, not positively either. And to repeat myself, and ironically, we now have the same staff that Rivera had as his top assistants in Carolina leading us. FWIW

Well, to add to your Houston account, it's not entirely the players when a team surrenders 19 points and nearly 200 yards of offense in just over a quarter, and while leading 16-0. Obviously they had done something right up until that point, on both sides. My guess is that either Bill O'Brien made some adjustments and outcoached McD, or McD outcoached himself by making more "13 Seconds" or Cincy type adjustments. We can blame all that on Frasier, which for purposes of argument I for one am fine with for the moment, but having said that, it should all then entirely vaporize come this season's playoffs. To take a stand oppositely would be to hedge. In short, McD has no more excuses this season/postseason. Frasier's gone, Dorsey, his choice, is in his second season. ALL of his senior decision-making partners are his pals from Carolina, every one of the four others.

Not sure that you're representing the opposing (for you) argument fairly and accurately. I would say it like this, using your sentences edited, bolded added, [brackets] removed; What's interesting about that is that no one when asked/challenged, wants to go through game-by-game and look at why we lost. As a direct result, I would phrase your second sentence like this, referring to the McD apologists; What's interesting in contrast, is that we blame all of our past coaches, not the players, for their inability to be a game or two better than they were in achieving what McD achieved here in his first three seasons and for their teams' failures othewise. So add Allen to the mix, but it's still primarily the coach (McD) that gets the credit when past coaches never had anything even approaching Allen in their arsenals. It also questions the arguments of those making them when McD isn't even a significant reason for our playoff failures. As to your last sentence, I would reword it like this; Perspectives. But also to help clear up your understanding of those critical of McD. If you want to go through playoff game by playoff game and look at the reasons why we lost and regularly underperformed on one or both sides of the ball, I'm entirely game.

McD hasn't been great in any of our playoff games except arguably vs. the Pats in '21 and the Ravens, but only defensively, the year prior. For example, how does one explain us giving up 19 points and nearly 200 yards in just over a quarter to allow Houston to tie us and then beat us in OT? Or how we couldn't generate more than 3 points in our 2017 playoff loss to Marrone/Bortles, and in our worst offensive performance of the season? Does coaching bear on that? Some would say no, at least not significantly much less primarily, but I don't see how it doesn't. Thoughts?

Good post although I'll disagree that in our Houston playoff game that Watson's O was "stacked with talent," it was not. Apart from Watson and Hopkins it was not good. Hyde was a mediocre RB despite having posted his career best, yet a 13th on the season rushing ranking, and after Hopkins no one can name their other receivers without looking at their roster. But here's my issue insofar as it concerns McD in that particular game, and not that similar things can be said about no fewer than 7 of our 9 other playoff games, one that you reference above, but we were up 16-0 in that game. McD is a defensively oriented coach. IOW Defense is supposed to be his strength. Yet he was responsible for Houston scoring 19 points in just over a quarter to push the game to OT and win it. I have no idea how that isn't a coaching fail. Some good points therein. My basic argument is McD has actually been responsible for holding the team/players back come playoff time. More than not anyway. So in light of your comment, allow me to ask, how does one explain our #1 & #2 rankings on D in the regular season, but below-average defensive performances, sometimes way below-average, and measured against other playoff performances as well, by us? BTW, I'm genuinely asking that question. Do the players decide to relax then? DC issues?