PBF81

Don't know about a formula for that, one could calculate it given the data, not sure that it's readily available. But, he did lead the league in Yards-Before-Catch per Reception, by an entire yard. 14.4 #2 was 13.4. He's also the 5th Highest depth-of-Target for all passes whether caught or not. Of the top 7 he's got the most yards. He's also near the top for INTs on passes when he's targeted, percentage wise especially. One would have to look at the plays as to why. This was notably lower the year prior.

LOL, that receiver looks like Agador in The Birdcage.

Thanks, I enjoy a good well thought out back-n-forth. I think we've skinned that cat about as much as we're going to 'til now. Time for the new season to begin and develop.

My point was that not overlooking them should mean a win for us. And yeah, I don't put much into that Wild-Card game at this time either.

BTW, and another FWIW, the Jets play the Cowboys on the road, but have the Chiefs, Eagles, and Chargers at home. We have the Cowboys and Jags at home but the Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, and Chargers on the road. Big advantage for the Jets.

FWIW, we're 8-1 in our last 8 vs. Miami with that loss being the game in the insane heat, and 9-2 our last 10 with Allen as the starter. Average score of the 11 games: 33-20 I can see us going 2-0 against them and those two games as being the difference in our records and don't see why that changes this season. Same schedule except that we play Cincy, Jax, and Tampa, and they play the Baltimore, Tennessee, and Carolina. I'm more concerned about the Jets with Rodgers who can stay healthy, and given that they get to play Houston, Cleveland, and Atlanta, three teams that were a combined 17-33-1 last season.

As several others have pointe out, how good Miami is will depend upon Tua's health status. He averaged nearly 2 passing TDs/game last season, which over 17 games had he played more than 13, would have put him at 4th in the league right behind Allen. Allen owns Miami, but that Sklar Thompson game should be enough to cause us not to overlook them. Thompson will be lucky to ever start another game in the NFL except for injury to a starter or even a 2nd-stringer. If Tua stays healthy, they should be as competitive as any team that's not the Chiefs, Bengals, or us.

Thanks, am I though, free to form a different opinion? Doesn't seem so according to Primetime101. Also, given our conversation, I fail to see how the differences in our beliefs are so horrendous, which you essentially agreed with him on, to the extent that they're simply unbearable and so cringeworthy that it's difficult to read. I'm also not reading that in the exchange that you and I are now having. So was it for effect? Tantrum? what? I'm not seeing the trauma inducing issue. That is all. Otherwise, I originally said that he was in charge of the best unit, and it is with both Poyer and Hyde uninjured, but neither was the case last season. Despite that, they were hardly the weakness of the team last season. I thought he did a great job given that. One of my points is that Beane has been asleep at the wheel re: the OL. You appear to corroborate that, or at least something along those lines by implication. I generally agree with that, perhaps not quite as favorable, but within the same general vacinity. When I said massive, I meant a drop from the 2nd and 1st Scoring Defenses from the past two seasons to around average, which to me would be massive, so perhaps I should have defined that better, for that I take fault. 2020 is a ways from where we are now, for trend purposes I typically include only the past couple of seasons depending upon the analysis, in this case an assessment of the forthcoming season. As an overall body of work for a coach I might defer to the entire body, although would typically discount the first season for one of several reasons. Yardage Ds, as I maintain, you don't win games by logging more yards or by preventing fewer yards, are what I defer to typically. Scoring is the baseline. Granted, there's a relationship, but it's not as solid as some like to think. And if say a team has the 1st ranked Yardage Offense, but only the 11th ranked Scoring Offense, then it suggests an inability to finish out drives among perhaps a few other things, as merely an example. When scoring lags yardage it's not good, when scoring outpaces yardage it's good. It can also mean better STs play for instance. So massive to me in this sense is from that 2nd/1st to somewhere in the average range. And I've mentioned why a bunch of times. MLB, DL Pass Rush, and CBs. I agree with you about a questionmark around Von. But at 34, if he's even above average coming off the injury that he had, he'll be bucking the trend given the rehab/age combo. And the other day I posted last season's sack numbers by the players 33+. It's not favorable for him. Without a significant MLB I don't see our D being stout at all. That's simply too big a gap in the D to ignore. Good DCs will pick that apart easily either running or passing. Much talk about newbie/rookie Williams playing MLB, but that's not his strength and there's not one draft preview/profile that suggests otherwise, in fact, they all say the opposite, that he's not designed for that role. That includes nfl.com's, pff's, and several other of the more prominent ones, which generally all agree with one another across the board anyway, which shouldn't be a shock. That likely leaves Bernard or Dotson, how optimistic is that. For me it's not. As to our CBs, they weren't good last season. I expect White to be 80-90% at least back to his old form, but that's not guaranteed, so we'll see. If not, if he continues to struggle, then I also see CB as a weakness. As to McD being a good defensive mind, that for sure is his strength, particularly re: the secondary, from which he hales, but again, what's his body of work on that? We're now told, and even by you in our exchange, that he hasn't been responsible for the D here. So his time here is no indication on paper. It's not sound to attribute all the good things to him while all the failures to Frazier now that he's gone. His time at Carolina was incredibly mixed and inconsistent at best, with his last season there having been well below average, and his 6 seasons total having been patently average otherwise, averaging 17th in Scoring D and 13th in Yardage D, again, with that unfavorable difference between the two. Either way, in four of his 6 seasons he finished with the 18th, 21st, 26th, and 27th ranked Scoring Ds, none of which is good. Even if we discount his rookie season it's not good. Sure, he also had the 2nd and 6th ranked Scoring Ds one season, but as I pointed out, in one of those two seasons he also had the easiest schedule of any NFL team from 2011 through 2022, 12 seasons. So that should be considered as well. Either way, and rhetorically since there's no concrete answer, but which should count more, those two good seasons, one with the easiest schedule that any NFL team has had over the past dozen seasons, or the other four? ... even if we discount his rookie season despite him staying on the same team, that still leaves three seasons, the 18th, 21st, and 26th ranked Scoring D seasons, the last of which, 26th, was his second worse and only worse than his rookie season. (27th) His successor, Steve Wilks, a nothing coach who's now on his 6th different team in as many seasons, bumped it up 15 spots in Scoring and 14 spots in Yardage the following season with a much more difficult schedule that McD had in all six of his seasons there. So as I do, to suggest that there's cause for concern and he's hardly got a Belichick like defensive record coming to us, also isn't an over the top concern or opinion. It's more an unsubstantiated narrative that he's more than an average DC. Again, not bad, simply not nearly as good as the official narrative. So this season will be very definitive on many levels. IMO he's a good DC but not as good as many fans here seem to think, which is normal for fans of all teams. ... until it isn't. LOL So we'll see, and as you say, the schedule this season will be tougher than any he's faced here or in Carolina, and likely the only one he'll have ever faced that was much more difficult than average. If not, then we'll end up being fortunate. Last season's schedule had a Strength-of-Schedule that was barely harder than average. The five seasons prior all were below average, twice considerably easier, thrice marginally easier. Add all that up, combine it with him head coaching and defensive coordinating at the same time, and he's got his hands more than full. I expect the offense to carry this team, the defense to be in the average range (13th thru 17th or so) in Scoring D, and how good the O will be to be based upon the size of the step that Dorsey takes this season. If he takes a big leap then we can easily win it all. If he struggles, then IMO winning the division won't be a given. I don't expect fans or media to be patient should the wheels begin to come off this season, particularly should we experience yet another divisional or wild-card round loss in the playoffs, to anyone. I don't expect the majority of fans here to be patient either should that be the case. If the opposite happens and we win the SB then we can all die happy and nothing else will ever matter. Anyway, it's a lot to have to happen for the best outcome. MLB needs to be resolved and w/o any likely options at this point McD needs to prove better than an average 17th ranked Scoring D coach and he'll have to do it against the toughest schedule he'll have ever faced Dorsey needs to not handcuff the offense and start calling plays that keeps Ds on their toes rather than the more predictable stuff we've been doing while letting Allen do it all. Is Dorsey up to the task? White needs to return to form and another CB needs to step up to become an above-average starting CB We need to have at least one more pass-rusher be able to dominate Offensively Kincaid really needs to match Beane's optimism on him. We need the running game to be more prominent and effective IMO Von Miller returning to anything close to his former self will be a massive bonus. So we'll see. I think we've covered it all. At the end of the day we all have the same hope, or most of us anyway, a Lombardi! At least those of us that went through our '90s campaigns. It's getting more urgent and we all realize that we're incredibly unlikely to land another "Josh Allen" once this current era ends, particularly given our struggles since the Kelly era. Go BILLS!!!

LOL, that was great! Completely agree with your sentiment BTW!!

Part of the inconsistency that I am referring to is your putting down of Salgado due to a lack of experience, but then insisting that McD and the coaches know better than anyone else that Danna will be better, despite the fact that he's been in the same minor coaching role now for 15 years, has never advanced, and has never been on a team longer than three seasons (once), that they know more than we do, which is true, but then they also knew more than we did and all the same things apply for their hiring of Salgado to begin with. It's not unreasonble to assess the failures in the same way, but your inconisistency is that you're disallowing that. That's very fair, but re: your source, that was all put out publicly, nothing investigative about it. When I talk about not coming clean, I'm talking about things like the Diggs incident, but also in the way the info for Frazier was put out. You more or less slide over the fact that no self-respecting DC like Frazier, with his history, good, far from great, but good anyway, should lower himself to secondary status as a figurehead because McD can't bring himself to fire him or just tell him it's not working out. Either fire the guy, or don't, and I suspect that money might have had something to do with it as well. Retire, no money paid. Fire him, he continues to get paid. Who knows whether Pegula was involved, we'll likely never find out. Point it, make your decision and live with it! A lot of people don't respect the approach that McD used, here or in life in general. I understand your position however. That's also very fair and I agree with you on much of that premise and generally speaking. We're not as far apart on this as it may seem, primarily the above. However, our defense has been problematic in each and every one of our playoff losses during Frazier's tenure not including his first season here in that playoff loss to Jax with Bortles at QB and Marrone coaching. Sure, we're not sure who called for the MO on the 13-Seconds plays, could very well have been McD, seems as if we'll never know. In 2019 it allowed 19 unanswered points in the 2nd-half to ultimately lose that game. In 2020, we allowed the Chiefs their 3rd most 1st-Downs and 4th most Points all season In 2021 13-Seconds speaks for itself. Then last season vs. the Bengals. It's not as if there isn't a storied history here with defensive playoff failures (offensive too in '20 and last season) over the past four seasons and once in the WC round and twice in the D-round, with the one in the AFC CG having been the most egregious and likely having prevented us from having on Lombardi at the present time. So it's hardly merely one game. I don't see how anyone could possibly disgree, even our own Bills media, as formerly referenced by Sal Maiorana's article on which the ink hasn't even dry a week. Thanks for saying that, I agree with most of it. I will add that my saying that they threw Salgado under the bus was not merely that firing action in itself, as I've made clear, per above again, it's a sum of the parts kind of thing. Not everyone has to agree, but that's my take. While I don't disagree with it, the italicized part above, what I will add is that Salgado was on this team for 6 seasons, only this team. If you trust McBeane now, then they should also have been trusted when they originally hired and twice promoted Salgado. Then to fire him after Poyer was limited for much of the season, missing from a fourth of it, and Hyde out the entire season, does not seem fair to me. Imagine being a mail carrier promoted to a driving route in Buffalo. Congratulations on the promotion son, nice work! Oh, BTW, the utility delivery car that you would have been using broke down and we can't afford a replacement. Here's a mule for you to use. Enjoy your route in Nov. thru March. It's that kinda thing. And as the only firing subsequent to that game. We don't need to rehash that, but I was far from the only one that pointed it out. Having said that, McD's strength does appear to be Secondary, where he played and coached prior to becoming a DC. Which makes the Salgado thing more, not less puzzling to me. I mean it took him 6 seasons to evaluate Salgado? Otherwise, I'm not sure how much faith I have in a position coach that's never advanced, never stays on the same team for more than two seasons with only one exception. We'll see. But having Poyer/Hyde back already makes him "better than Salgado" even if he's braindead or does nothing. Those guys are self-coaching at this point. Best S tandem in the league! For me it's not a matter of trust. I don't have to trust them, they're not my employers or business partners or people or companies that I contract with. Same for you or any other fan. All we do is talk, and not a word of what we exchange matters the proverbial hill of beans. But in trying to connect the dots in the vast absence of any direct statements from the team in the matter, yes, they can be tacit, but that then opens them up to speculation. I think we both agree that this season will be key in determining a good many things, the least of which will not be whether the extensions that McBeane just got were justified or not. We both hope that that we win the Super Bowl, although I couldn't care less if it's as a Wild-Card or the #1 Seed, as long as we get it, while some care more about winning more games. That aside, I also think that the D is going to take a massive step backwards this season for reasons that I've expressed before, just not in this post. (MLB among them) While you, if I recall right, think the opposite. At the same time, if managed properly, I expect the offense to be the most prolific offense in franchise history and possibly tops in the league. If Torrence and McGovern are for real then this will be the best OL we've had on McD's watch, and if Kincaid is for real, then we should also easily have the best receivers we've had on his watch as well. RBs, no worse than any other season. But if those things end up not being for real, then some more serious questions need to start being asked. Either way, I'm still not sure what renders these thoughts so outrageous that they're not even tolerable per prior posts. Anyway, again, camp time. First preseason game in two weeks. We'll know how the season has unfolded in four more months or so. Go BILLS!!!!

Well, OK, even here people were demanding answers for 13 Seconds and the abysmal playoff exit this past season. Rewrite history if you like. Otherwise, it's camp time. Go BILLS!!!

And who has that kinda time.

The caliber of which correlate to where your season tickets are located? For the airing of grievances?

And the other two also didn't play against Cincy. 😁

Your statements are fair, you simply don't apply them uniformly. I also never said that the team was blaming him, what my point has been was that absolutely no corrective action was taken until the charade with Frazier occurred, and with what happened there still being kept in the dark by the team with only leaks of insight coming out incidentally otherwise. Also normally is that after a "13 Seconds" type loss followed up by the defensive debacle that occurred in the subsequent season's playoffs loss, if not after the aforementioned even, is for someone to be fired. That did not occur. Frazier only "decided to take a year off" (which wasn't even entirely true as pitched) over a month after the loss. And if as you suggested, they had decided to fire Salgado prior to that time, why did it take the several days to make that firing when firings of that nature normally occur as soon as the season ends, if not for the team's purposes, then out of courtesy to give the coach as much time as possible to find other work. Your logic, as mentioned, is fair, you're simply not applying it across the board, only in favor of your argument. Consistency is key. So had Allen gotten injured, and Keenum had to start, the logic here too is that it would have been fair to judge Dorsey on that as well. I disagree with that entirely. Hyde, one of the better Ss in the game was out all season, and Poyer one of the top Ss in the game if not the best, missed 4 games and played through a knee injury throughout most of the rest. To suggest that the dropoff in play from those two to Johnson and Hamlin was not massive is remiss and dishonest. I also find it quite interesting that until then Salgado was involved with coaching the CBs the season prior when they were actually better. I never supposed he'd be worse. But you answered the question honestly, and before this discussion I had never even heard of Joe Danna, he may be the best Ss coach we've ever had. But my point now is that is that going to make any difference at all given that Hyde and Poyer are back? Is there any history of Hyde Poyer not being the top safety tandem in the entire league? (or very close to it if you'd like to argue not the top) Will Danna get credit for what the Ss have now already been doing without him? Do you really think that this is going to make much of a difference whatsoever, given that the concerns of our team are everywhere else but S as long as Poyer/Hyde are healthy? They're rhetorical questions. At the end of the day, again, normally, the better coaches make obvious decisions and adjustments to "what went wrong" to end two very big seasons insofar as championship implications went, aka firings. That did not occur here. What did occur is some bizarrely developing transition that to date has never been fully expalined (i.e. McD hasn't come clean on more in the vernacular) with Frazier, who's been kept on for 6 seasons and only now implicitly made the reason for the team's lack of performance when it matters most. Everyone can spin it how they want, but sometimes the facts speak for themselves and anything else is merely rhetoric for purposes of developing a narrative that isn't quite true or otherwise not wanting to expose embarrassing or non-favorable circumstances, aka covering something up. Just sayin'. But it happens all the time. Thanks for the civil exchange!! I definitely sense your passion for your positions, which isn't bad. ... even if they're wrong. ... I kid, I kid!!

You do realize there's a contradiction there, right? Otherwise, I'm hardly defending Salgado, but anyone thinking that he was in any way primarily responsible for our piss poor playoff performance this past playoffs, I"m speechless. Thanks for validating my premise. Because if that's why McD kept him here, then if what he's saying and implying now is true, then it was to our detriment as a team. To your last point, why was Salgado fired then only days following our loss to the Bengals, and the only one fired? Do you think that the guy they hired to replace him will be better? Why?

Fun to think about, but if we were 12-0 by then, we'd have to own all the tiebreakers and no other AFCE team could be better than 7-5. If we were 10-2, we'd still need all the division tiebreakers and no other team could be better than 5-7. Just sayin'

So your implication then is that there were no better people more competent and more accomplished than Washington, Holcomb, Dorsey and Shula. That's fine, I simply disagree. Again, it's also not some far fetched strange position to hold, which is part of the primary point here. But you do you.

The entire division has a tough schedule, ours the toughest. We all play the AFCW and NFCE We play Cincy, Jax, and Tampa Miami plays Baltimore, Tennessee, and Carolina The Jets play Cleveland, Houston, and Atlanta NE plays Pittsburgh, Indy, and the Saints Advantage Jets NE is like an STD that you can't be gotten rid of. They weren't good last season but still managed to finish 8-9. They're probably the worst team in the division but they can play spoiler. Should be interesting.

Not the point. Frazier leaving was hardly a bold move by McD that grabbed the bull by the horns while assessing responsibility for our abysmal playoff performance(s). Let's not circumvent the original point. And no, it sounds like more of a very weak action by someone that's supposed to be ensuring that this team puts its best foot forward season to season and week to week, particularly in the playoffs. This just in, but Frazier's been here for 6 seasons. If Frazier was the issue, why did it take so long, and then why was the entire thing half shrouded in secrecy. Either way, so you then think that firing a position coach for a unit that's been the team's strength showed top-notch resolve and determination in correcting our playoff woes? LOL ... really? Because that's the implication. That's fine if so, I have no issues with it other than being laughable as I view it. Again, I'm hardly the only one on that as many called it out. IMO it was a weak response by a head coach that clearly didn't want to implicate his own DC, for who knows which of several logical reasons.

OK, then by implication, Dorsey's going to be making the entirety of key decisions offensively speaking while McD and Washington make all of the key defensive decisions. The point was that it's not going to be asst. coaches like Austin Gund making them offensively or Jaylon Finner on defense. The question still stands. I think that McD is self-evident too. Built a good culture, loses in the early rounds, doesn't have what it takes in the most important games, as I mentioned even Maiorana sums up nicely in today's piece; (aka not just me with this take, and far from it) As to Dorsey, "successful" is relative, but when you have Allen it's difficult to not be "successful." The question is did he perform at optimal levels, and I haven't seen anyone argue that he did. But what's Dorsey's track record of success otherwise? While you may be inspired by last season's performance by him, many still have questions, myself included. That's hardly an unreasonable take. As to Washington, you answered my question directly re: him. The more direct answer, per yourself, was that he's done absolutely nothing that should inspire confidence. Whether that remarkably changes this season, or whether McD's management of the D ends up being better than it was in Carolina and supercedes any influeces of Washington (or Holcomb by implication) remains to be seen. Either way, I don't think that that take by myself is so ridiculous as to warrant being blocked from the site as Primetime101 says. So those are the only two options in your world? Hire A, completely non-inspiring coaches, or ... B, coaches that single-handedly won Super Bowls. Noted. Got it! It's no wonder we have these petty arguments. LOL

I'll tell you what, let's simply cut to the chase. Here is who's on staff in our coaching dept.: Sean McDermott, Head Coach: Defensive Coordinator @ Carolina from 2011 – 2016 Ken Dorsey, Offensive Coordinator: QB Coach and Scout @ Carolina from 2011-2016 Eric Washington, Senior Defensive Asst./DL: DL Coach @ Carolina from 2011-2016 Mike Shula, Senior Offensive Asst.: Offensive Coordinator and QB Coach @ Carolina from 2011-2016 Al Holcomb, Senior Defensive Asst.: Linebackers Coach @ Carolina from 2013-2016 No matter how you slice it, those are the top two guys on offense: Dorsey & Shula, and McD, Washington, and Holcomb on D. Collectively or individually, they will be making ALL key decisions for the team on the field. What, in their primary roles, has each achieved, top honors, during their tenure in the NFL? Then say what inspires you about those achievements in their now leading us this season? That's a more substantive approach than a lady's tea argument and airing of grievances session.

Well great, but that's all nothing but opinion Whether you, I, or anyone else likes it or not, the top five decision-makers & coaches here, four without question, now, were with McD in Carolina, which is a fact. In Carolina two were directly under McD on D. It's also a fact that they've achieved nothing in either location and underachieved in both teams' biggest games and have otherwise ushered their teams to early playoff exits. You will spin it anyway that you want But you skip the point, which is that between your take and mine, mine is based upon those two facts, yours is based upon mitigating those two facts and assuming something that as of yet had no basis in reality. They have no other significant body of work, which quite frankly only reinforces my position, not yours. IOW, while you may not agree with it, hardly a big shock, LOL, for anyone to claim that it's completely unsubstantiated is wrong. In fact, Sal Maiorana's article today addresses one of those points in the same vein, so it's obviously not as charged.

LOL, OK, I can think of one, recently, that you gave me something other than an X. I was actually surprised. LOL When someone X's just about everything that someone else posts, then it makes it's own statement. How about this, which of the points on that list are so outrageous that they match your description? And why?

I'd be curious to see that laundry list. I'm happy to go over how I see them. I'll post a few of my understandings that I realize aren't popular, they're hardly on an island and they're hardly all critical. A. IMO McD's not the coach to take us to the promised land. I'm far from the only one that believes that at this point in time. Yes, I understand the "culture" that he's built, but culture is one thing, a championship is another. I often think that many cannot distinguish between the two. But I also think that this season provides fewer options for him to shed blame should that repeat itself. B. Gabe Davis is better than most say. Also unpopular. C. Our LB unit is questionable at best. Again, far from the only one saying that. Milano's the only proven LB there. D. More recently, no one was held accountable for our flop in the playoffs this past seaon. Salgado, a coach involved with our best unit on the team during his stint here, was fired, but no one else. That's factual, whether populare or unpopular, in the eyes of the beholder. E. We have the potential to be the best Bills' offense in franchise history this season. Standing in the way of or aiding that is Dorsey. F. Our WRs are more than enough for any good QB to post a great season. G. We have no premiere pass-rushers without Miller, who's not likely to ever return to the form he was in, with history, relating to age, not on his side. H. Our coaching staff, the top part of it anyway, the decision-makers, are essentially now a transplanted unit from McD's time in Carolina. That's also factual. Whether some view that as a good thing or not, again, is in the eyes of the beholder. This beholder sees a coaching staff that fell short against one of the worst QBs in the league that season in SB 50, and one that cost us an AFC Championship and quite possibly an NFL Championship, and that have otherwise lost 4 Divisional playoff games and 2 Wild Card playoff games, generally speaking to teams not as good. I. Allen does way too much and "covers a multitude of sins" otherwise. Hardly unique there. J. Our designed running game from the RBs is underutilized. Same there, hardly unique. K. Our OL may be the best it's been in years. L. I'm not expecting Kincaid as a rookie to shatter the rookie records, especially under Dorsey who's still in OJT mode. Other than guessing, like everyone else, who's going to be cut or the like, I'm not seeing which many of these are so unbearable to read or consider. Help me out. I mean which are entirely not possible or false? Otherwise, which of the many in that laundry list that are so hard to swallow did I miss? Again, sorry that you're so upset about these. Truly. It's hardly my intention to piss anyone off.