PBF81

That's a fantastic question. Many are saying he's not worth $15M or whatever. IMO the entire league is overpaid for playing a sport, that has significant amounts of its business expenses largely covered by taxpayers in many cases. But not to digress and that aside ... I look at last season's WR Free-Agent Contracts on Spotrac. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2023/all/all/ Click on "POS" to sort by WR. OBJ, who IMO is washed up, got $15M for one season. I'm not sure we need more 1-2 year contracts either. I'd like to see some continuity here. Woods at 31 got over $15M for two years. Smith-Shuster got over $25M for three years Hopkins, who's washed up as a #1 at 31 got over $26M for two years. Lazard and Jakobi Meyers each got $11M/season for 4 and 3 years respectively. Davis where he is at 24 is better than any of them. What would everyone be thinking if any of those guys were on the team instead of Davis now. And look at who we've gotten over the past four seasons; Brown, McKenzie, and who else. Meanwhile, many went bonkers over Andre Roberts and Robert Foster as if either of them ever had a realistic chance to do better than what Davis is now. Which brings up a point, when you consistently draft players that are the youngest in the draft, it only makes sense to plan on keeping them into their primes, not letting them walk just before their primes. That makes little if any sense. Davis will be at the forefront of his prime going into his next contract. Based on the above it seems to me that signing Davis to a 4-year $40M contract prior to now would have been a good deal. But hey, what do I know. That's a Beane problem. At this point the price-tag is going up by the week however. And BTW, sort on the '24 WR free agents, sort on Market Value. I'm not seeing anyone that's going to make people here happy given the seeming price tags.

And if I had a nickel for the incessant waffling here and season long and week to week schizophrenia that goes on here ... BTW, it appears that you're on an island here.

Again, this isn't even a serioud discussion anymore, it's simply you throwing up all the crap that you can for the sole purpose of defending an indefensible pre-determined position. I've also ignored your ridiculous and false premises, but since you want facts, let's address your "facts" given that you're throwing them up against mine. To start, Davis was never on pace for 1,300+ yards thru 4 games last season. He was inactive in game 2 for starters. So if you count only games 1, 3, and 4 otherwise, he had 138 Yards and 1 TD. How that translates to 1,300+ yards you'll have to explain to everyone. But, seeing what you presumably meant, I'll factor in that 171 yard 2 TD game in week 5. That's just under a third of the season, injured BTW, and 309 yards and 3 TDs. About what he has now and still not a pace for 1,300+. Either way, you're being entirely disingenuous here and there's no sense in continuing this discussion if this is all you're going to do. The point that I made, clearly, was how the entire team overachieved early on last season, and I cited two player examples. Which brings up another relevant point, and something that concerns me. The past two seasons we've approached the first part of the season as if going 6-0 was the championship. Then things leveled off, and ulimately we choked in the playoffs. It should be more than a bit concerning that we may slow down again, particularly defensively speaking. IMO, again my opinion, the offense will only continue to gel and get better, with Davis being a huge part of that on that note. But I do expect the defense to taper off significantly as we play better offenses. Everyone's cheering McD at how much better he is than Frazier, and while I am reserving judgment until more games have been played, he's allowed over 100 total yards per game through the first four games than Frazier did, and a comparable number of points. 55 this season, 58 last. Negligible there. But the over 400 more total yards allowed is hardly negligible. That's nearly 2,000 yards for the season extrapolated out. We'd better hope that changes or it could be problematic. It's not as if we've played top-10 offenses, except for Miami, who put up 393 total on us. Anyway, you've ignored just about every direct question I've asked on this topic and you clearly have an agenda re: Davis. So be it. Time, this season, will bear out what is the case. Dismiss 3 TDs, and more 1st-Downs than anyone but Diggs and Cook if you want to, but you're being ridiculous to suggest that it's not incredibly instrumental in our scoring in games, and therefore winning them. And honestly, if that's your standard, then every other player we have besides Diggs and Cook must absolutely suck moose oysters. Every player has limitations with few exceptions, and those players end up in the Hall of Fame. That doesn't alter his playoff performances or what and how he's contributed. I'd say that they're using him pretty optimally. What, he's gonna play slot or something? What, short wheel-routes? He's a deep WR. That's what he's used for. Getting on/about 1,000 yards and 10+/- TDs from a WR like that is anything but chump change. In that role, if he had 10 targets I'd be quite concerned about our entire offensive approach. But he "stretches the field" to cite a cliche. I appreciate your what I see as relinquishing on the argument somewhat. Let's see how the season plays out and render further conclusions at that time.

That wasn't the question and that's not what you said. Diggs makes $24M per year and cost us a 1st-Round pick and another. Davis was a 4th-Round pick that makes less than $1M/season, which is ridiculous for what he does. This isn't a serious two-way discussion at this point. You're simply looking for random things to defend a preexisting position.

Seriously? And Diggs was on pace for 1,800 yards and 17 TDs Rousseau was on pace for 17 sacks, 21 TFLs, and 25 QBHits. The entire world has is penciled in for a Lombardi.

LMAO Go ahead and name the other players, game by game, besides Allen, that made an impact or were consistent in the playoffs during those seasons. Win or Lose. I dare ya. Start with Diggs. Maybe then picture will clear up.

Sure, laugh now, but the Claven lineage goes back through all of the most influential ruling families in history.

He makes big plays to keep us in games, keep drives that result in scoring going, and again, if he continues the pace he's on, and hits 12 TDs, which I can envision, then that would be the largest percentage of TDs thrown by Allen other than possibly to Diggs, who's career high was 11 last season, on 60% more targets and over twice the receptions. How much that's worth, again, I cannot say. That depends upon Allen, Dorsey, and what the team thinks. Again however, for anyone to even approach suggesting that it's irrelevant is ludicrous speed. A bunch of things have stopped us in January, Davis hasn't been one of 'em. Defense has. Coaching has. Lack of a running game has. Poor OL has leaving Allen scrambling for his life has. Davis was largely instrumental in three of our four postseason wins under McD while he's been here, and one of those games was the win that pushed us to our fourth win in Davis' rookie season. He has more postseason TDs than any player on the team. The only trend that we're trying to buc in the playoffs is poor D and incredibly questionable coaching.

BTW, I just looked, only five teams had two 1,000-yard WRs last season. Cincy: Higgins: 1,029/7 Chase: 1,046/9 Miami: Hill: 1,710/7 Waddle: 1,356/8 Philly: Brown: 1,496/11 Smith: 1,196/7 Seattle: Metcalf: 1,048/6 Lockett: 1,033/9 Tampa: Evans: 1,124/6 Godwin: 1,023/3 No team had two WRs with double-digit TDs. If you count TEs, SF is the only team that had two receivers (WR/TE) with 8 or more TDs. I'm not sure that peoples' outlook here is rational. KC's second-leading WR was Smith-Shuster last season, with 933 yards and 3 TDs. Davis is on pace for 935 and 12 TDs. I have absolutely zero idea how that would not be enormously significant if he did it.

Well, right now, by last season's final stats, he's tracking to be around the 24th leading yardage WR and tied for 2nd in the league for receiving TDs. If that sucks, so be it.

That's a GM problem, and an entirely different part of the conversation. But we all know that having extended him by now would have cost us less. Everyone that pays attention to football knows full well that waiting until players become unrestricted free agents always costs more to sign them. Whether or not he's worth $11M/season I cannot say. That is likely in the eyes of the beholder. I would think that Allen's opinion is what matters most there, his and Dorsey's. But I'm not sure I want to trust Beane's ability to draft Davis' replacement given his track record in the drafts with WRs. Also, we signed Diggs to big money and everyone applauded the trade of a 1st and then some, saying that it was as good as a 1st-round pick. Not really, since a 1st-round pick costs much less, ala Jefferson. But that aside ... IMO this is one of those be careful what you wish for, you may get it situations. My perplexion has to do with people raving about Kincaid for example, who has a third of the 1st-Downs, a third of the YPR, none of the TDs, while out of the other side of their mouths stating boldly that Davis isn't good.

No, you must understand what you're reading at PFR. 33 is combined TDs and 1Ds. 33 - 7 = 26 Care to address the difference in routes run? Jones averaged 11.6 YPR that season, and 9.1 Yards-Before-Catch-per-Reception. AKA, Jones is a slot WR, with much easier much higher percentage passes, whereas Davis takes on the much lower percentage deep throws, which is reflected in the stats provided. Not one of his six full seasons prior to this season has matched Davis' season last year. Only two have matched either of Davis' first two seasons. In his entire career to date, on twice the receptions, Jones has 17 TDs to Davis' 23, and has a career YPR avg. of 10.7 to Davis' 17.0. Jones' 1st-Down/TD% is 56.2%% to Davis' 78.5%. Apart from their TDs, Jones 1st-Down conversion rate is 53.1% while Davis' is 73.8%. Davis is averaging 14.1 YBC/R this season and it was 14.4 last season, then again over 50% more than Jones, fully corroborating the point made. And last season while injured. Otherwise, only here in Buffalo is 3, a third of Allen's TD passes, and 10% of the team's 1st-Downs "insignificant."

No, that doesn't address anything that was stated. And Jones had only 26 1st-Downs. He was also a high 2nd-round day-2 pick, not a 4th rounder, and many many WRs drafted after him have outperformed him since then. Try again. I'll even kill your points. Zay Jones had 56 receptions and a fraction of the YPR and many of hits catches were on dead drives, and he was in an entirely different role, one of the higher-percentage routes, and still only had a bottom-dwelling Catch%. So no, absolutely not, there's no significant comparison there. None. The 47th is entirely irrelevant to anything that I posted. I'll restate it to make it easy; I have absolutely no idea how anyone can even approach thinking that Kincaid is contributing significantly at this point, but that Davis is not.

Way to take the discussion entirely out of its context to suit a contrary position. I'm just curious, which part of what I wrote threw ya? Most seriously? Which part eluded you?

Maybe even ask him to bring one of his free drinks back to you in row 26.

Daboll's doing in NY what Daboll has always done in the NFL except for two seasons with Allen, leading his team to a bottom-dwelling offensive ranking. This should shock no one. Except for '20 and '21 when Allen finally found himself, Daboll's Scoring Offenses as an OC here and in Cleveland, Miami, and KC have ranked 29th, 31st, 20th, 32nd, 30th, and 23rd, and his Yardage Offenses have ranked 32nd, 29th, 22nd, 24th, 30th, and 24th, for averages of 28th and 27th. What he's doing in NY should come as absolutely no surprise. It fits his pattern perfectly. His scoring offense there currently ranks 30th and so does his scoring D. In fairness, he has played two very tough teams.

I don't think so. I think some will simply never be happy with him. Last season, playing injured a good chunk of it, 35 of his 48 catches went for TDs (7) or 1st-Downs (28) and contributed heavily to us scoring and keeping drives alive. The types of patterns he's asked to run, and let's be clear, he runs what he's instructed to run by Dorsey, are low-percentage deep-routes. Allen likes him too for that purpose. Can't the same be said about all of the WRs on the team. Also, in contrast, everyone's applauding Kincaid, who has fewer than half the yards, about a third the yards-per-catch, 0 TDs, and only 3 1st-Downs to Davis' 8. Of Kincaid's 3 1st-Downs, only two have occurred on scoring drives, both of those drives leading to a FG, whereas I believe all but one of Davis' catches have been on drives leading to scores totaling 54 points. For a 4th-round draft pick he's one of Beane's best value picks if not the best outright. There isn't a day-3 pick that's provided better value for the pick. He's There were 16 WRs drafted ahead of him in 2020. He's got more TDs (23) than all but one, Jefferson. (28) He's got more yards than all but 7. Considering the TD/Yardage ratio, he's better than anyone in that draft. Jefferson logs a TD for every 192 receiving yards. Davis logs one for half of that, every 96 receiving yards.

Wow, that's a bummer. I remember when they started, they were the only decent stats/data site back then. That and pro-football-reference were my two favorite sites, this one primarily for basis data. pro-football-references started around the same time but wasn't nearly as developed back then as it is today. FO, besides DVOA etc., also had some cool stats that in former years were difficult if not impossible to come by, like average starting field-position for one. Ah well, things run their course, Schatz did great work. Props to him for starting it up before anyone knew what [football] metrics were. Curious to see where he lands.

Yeah, I don't get it either. He's got 3 TDs in four games, and his detractors give everyone but him credit. I mean what does he have to do. Of his 12 catches, 11 have gone for 1st-Downs or TDs, with the 1st-Downs contributing to scoring drives, I think in every case. Most teams would be happy to have a WR do that. He's on pace for 935 yards and 12 TDs, which by last season's standards would have put him at 24th for receiving yards and tied with Kelce for 2nd in receiving TDs. 24th! 2nd for TDs! But he's not good enough. It's mindboggling. SMH

All I know is that Allen's currently running at about half the rate he did last season and prior seasons. So that's a a major positive. He's averaging 4 runs/game, which is acceptable. He's also protecting himself better. The other half is that our running game in general is working, which I attribute to our stronger OL. In fact, it would seem that if there's a particular unit, as a unit, that needs to remain healthy, it's the OL. If that stays intact for the season, expect big things from our offense historically speaking. Cook will surpass his last season's carry & touches total in three games if he averages what he's been averaging, and there's no reason to expect that to not be the case.

All I know is that I'm thoroughly enjoying our play right now and hope that we remain relatively consistent throughout the season. The offense presently is on pace for 590 PF, the franchise record is 501. While it's more unlikely than likely that we'll hit that, I am expecting us to best our franchise record. If we average the same 28.4 PPG that we did over last season, we'll hit 508 and it's not a reach that we average more than that. Our OL play is at levels not seen on McD's watch. Side note: Torrence is outstanding! Cook's on pace for almost 1,300 rushing and 1,700 yards-from-scrimmage, something we haven't had here since Jackson. Diggs is on pace for 1,700/17 Davis is on pace for 900/12 Would like to see Kincaid/Knox get more involved, but considering the above, that's kind of scary if they do. The D, while allowing significantly more YPG by over 100 thus far, is holding teams to 14 PPG. Granted, it will be more against better teams, but that's excellent, and our pass rush has been suprisingly good. That's the important thing in today's NFL. On a non-Bills side note, I'm deriving immense satisfaction watching Belichick doing face-palms during games! The prospect of him finishing with his worst season since his inaugural season with Bledsoe in NE and otherwise while he was at Cleveland is gravy.

You know how it goes here though. I'm scratching my head a little bit. Through four games this season and last, we've allowed 55 points this season, 58 last season, but over 100 total yards more per game than last season. That's a lot. Our losses at 3-1 were similar, to the @Jets this season, to the @Fins last season. In both cases we outplayed the opponent but lost. The talk about our defense over the first half last season was similar. It also seems a little bit premature to draw the conclusion that McD's better than Frazier when McD so far is allowing the equivalent of over 1,700 more yards-per-season on average and a comparable PA. Even today, good game, but I credit the O. Miami logged nearly 400 yards of offense. We've come out swinging early in the season over the past couple of seasons. IMO we go as the offense goes. On that note, right now it's averaging 34.75 PPG. If that keeps up we'd end up with 590 points. I'm content overall but also hoping that it keeps up.

On pace to shatter our PF franchise record to date.

So you were the one throwing the dildos at Brady then? Not to mention being 0-2 in the division and 1-2 conference ...

Agree on Poyer, but those things need to be anticipated, not relacted to.