PBF81

In Oliver's all-important junior season he loaded up his stats on East Carolina, Rice, and Navy, not one team of which had good offense or more than 3 wins. Groot played in the ACC, not the SEC. He was at Miami for one season after a red-shirt rookie year. He was an enigma there. None of that is important, we're all hoping that he finally, but after four seasons, turns into that "beast" that everyone claimed would mimic Donald. I'll take 75% of Donald. LOL Where we differ is in the likelihood of that happening. We'll see, hopefully he does. Groot, as with you, IMO he'll be fine, but again, last season he also started quickly. Last season in his first four games he started with 4 Sacks, 5 TFLs, and 6 QBHits. This season through four games he's logged 3 Sacks, 4 TFLs, and 4 QBHits, lest we forget that many said the same thing about him at this time last season. So we'll see. Here's the thing that most people do not take into account. Many players go in streaks. As you talked about elite players, they typically show up all the time with perhaps a bad game or two, sometimes three throughout the season. But other players often put up only 3, 4, 5, or 6 good games a season. Sometimes those games are up front, and given that we're a team that typically comes out of the gates swinging when the season begins, almost as if our September record dictates whether or not we go to the Super Bowl. I'm being partially facetious BTW. The point is that some players simply run that streak early on. Not just on our team, but throughout the league. It's bad form to extrapolate stats, particularly in the case of a player like Jones, from his first quarter, throughout the season when in 9 other seasons he's never come close to doing anything like that. At 32 it's highly unlikely that the 10th time's the charm. He's never even made a Pro-Bowl but we all had him penciled in as playing to that level. Difference of opinion then on that first part. Which is fine. Please don't take any of this personally. Please don't. We'll see on the rest. Obviously we'd both love for that to happen. I simply look at decades of NFL history in terms of individual performance, and law-of-averages kind of stuff, which grounds me in my optimism. You are clearly very bullish on that occuring per above and prior posts, whereas I am very cautiously optimistic, and having been burned numerous times in the past. For example, everyone's talking about how much better our defense is under McD than under Frazier. But here are some facts that no one wants to hear to the contrary. We've allowed an average of 65 more YPG and fewer points (61) v. (80). Our rushing D has collapsed, and that was even before our injuries this week. Last season we allowed 10 rushing TDs all season, 4.3 YPC, and 104.6 YPG. This season to date we've already allowed 4 rushing TDs, we've allowed 5.8 YPC, and 134.0 YPG. Even before this week we allowed 118.5 YPG on 6.3 YPC. When I mention the law-of-averages, consider, we're presently on pace for 71 Sacks, 98 TFLs, and 142 QBHits. Those would have ranked first across the board by last season's measures, same for the year prior. So we need to ask ourselves in the process of analysis, is that likely to continue. Have you read the pieces about how Jax picked our pass-rush apart and [via great coaching not apparent on our side, not sure how a flight affects that] after having reviewed it? Sure, we got 5 sacks and plenty of pressure, but Jax adapted to it according to multiple reports, and Lawrence had a great day. Instead of getting giddy, I ask myself, is our record-setting defensive pace likely to continue? Not saying impossible, but likely. IMO, no. Again, that's MO, but based upon decades of doing football analytics. IOW, I was doing "metrics" before metrics was even a thing. What happens is that the law-of-averages takes over. The reasons why that pace isn't likely to be sustained are several, but injuries can easily be one of them. But consider, and again, we don't have to agree, but simply consider, that perhaps the reasons for our injuries are at least in part due to the overall aggressive style of play that we're deploying here. I won't go into details as these posts are long enough, but think generally of the methods employed to get our players to be so crazy swarming. As I see it, it's quite possible and even likely that our swarming aggressive style of pass defense has contributed to our injuries. Not saying all, like White, but others. And perhaps not even on a given play, but perhaps simply the greater than normal wear-n-tear during a game, but also as the season rolls on. Food for thought there. OK, this is where you and I break. Agree on Milano and the LBs, not sure why you think I'm saying the opposite. If I did then I misspoke. Don't read too much into everything. Btu on the "ESPECIALLY against the run," then why is our run D notably worse? ... and again, even before the injuries on Sunday, many of which occurred well after Etienne was already putting a hurting on us. As we've discussed, with the exception now of your statements about our run D, above, IMO we now see teams run more UTM on us for two reasons. First, Milano's out and he's played Middle just as much as Bernard has, perhaps simply not officially on the depth chart, but he's been lined up in a 2 LB set opposite whomever's been next to him, and not always Bernard either, frequently. But secondly, because it appears that teams have started to figure out our "new" defense under McD. As to White, he hasn't been a factor since early last season, so I'm not sure why his injury all of a sudden changes our D as it's been for most of last season at all. And he sucked when he got back anyway. We've been through this, you continue to ignore it. Well, in applying your standard, and per this thread, we need 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl. So using that standard, namely yours, after his very first draft pick, Allen, he's drafted exactly zero elite players, which by your standard would seem to indicate that he's not cutting the mustard here. A team full of "non-bust players" isn't necessarily a good team. The goal isn't to draft non-busts, it's to draft impact/elite players as even you imply. Beane has not done that. We can continue to debate as to whether or not after 6 drafts that makes him a good GM or not, but IMO yours is an uphill argument given that. Again, it's OK to disagree. Absolutely nothing that you or I discuss matters in terms of what actually happens. You're missing the point on players like Carter and Purdy. The point is that those players are contributing immediately, as rookies, or have and continue to in Purdy's case. Their teams and fans aren't saying five seasons in, this is finally the season that so-and-so breaks out. That's partly why I criticize Beane far too often taking 21-year olds in the drafts, they're not ready to play at a high level. He should know this. Not saying that's the only reason, but again, the primary point here is that those draft picks are contributing heavily, as in making significant impacts, in their first seasons and if not as rookies, then in their second seasons. Here, we talk about hoping that Oliver isn't once again inconsistent in his 5th season, or Rousseau in his third. Talking about Jones "finally breaking out" (my words) if that's even true, in his 10th, yet as a free agent. That's where Beane is falling short and it's hardly a minor issue. Yeah, that's pretty much where we disagree. Our goals are the same as fans. But Stef was an expensive free agent. Not difficult to figure that he'd be good, particularly for that price, which he then owes. Matt wasn't Beane's pick. Neither was Tre, so I leave them out of the Beane conversation. Completely agree with you in principle on that bolded part. But again, where we do not view things similarly, which is fine, is in that the others that I've mentioned play well essentially from "day one." Not literally, but more proverbially, out of the gate in their rookie seasons as it were. Whereas Oliver's in his 5th season and we're simply hoping for 2nd-round performance from a trade-up 1st. He was a trade-up, right? I forget. But either way, in his fifth season. Rousseau in his 3rd. AJE in his 4th. Cook's a 2-down RB and will never be anything else. Torrence already appears to be a monster, but it's taken Beane 6 drafts to land one OL-man like that. Bernard still has limitations and we'll see how that plays out in his second season. But that's the primary difference, while our biggest competitors get solid play from their impact/elite players from their rookie seasons or early in their second seasons, we're hoping that our prospects for impact play materialize in Beane's selections 3rd, 4th, and 5th seasons. And again, disagreement is fine. This is a discussion forum. At the end of the day we both and all hope that the team sets records both offensively and defensively, and that we're all screaming our lungs out following a Super Bowl victory come February. GO BILLS!!! How's our dome coming along?

The point was that your slant was purely hypothetical. You said in relation to Ford stepping in for Jones, what if Ford goes down. I suppose we deal with the injuries if and when they come. There's no sense in attempting to cover every possible permutation that could result from injuries. And OK, we had a couple of key injuries on Sunday, why should we expect that to repeat itself, and if it does, then perhaps we need to start looking at our training regimen, coaching for how prepared our team is, etc. Milano was a huge loss, and one that I sternly warned about should we not start getting some capable LBs that could defend the run, where we currently rank near DFL. Jones not so much, his loss people are overreacting to. The odds of him playing in the next 12 games like he has to date were remote anyway. We'll see what happens, but Gunner and I have been having a go round in discussing and hoping that both Oliver and Rousseau bloom into elite players. If that happens we'll be more than fine. Our pass D will be OK either way. Milano was a good pass defender, but so are Williams and Bernard.

LOL, thanks for the catch. Corrected. Even worse tho.

And FWIW, here are Moss' and Cooks' numbers thus far this season. Keep in mind that Moss has played in only four games to Cook's five. Moss has 89 carries for 445 Yards, 3 rushing TDs, and 24 1st-Downs, a long run of 56, 5.0 YPC, and 111 YPG, 8 catches for 72 Yards, 1 receiving TD, and 517 YFS Cook has 61 carries for 292 Yards, 1 rushing TD, 14 1st-Downs, a long run of 36, 4.8 YPC, and 58 YPG; 14 catches for 140 and 0 receiving TDs, and 432 YFS. Moss plays with the rookie Richardson on a team that ranked 30th in scoring offense and 27th in yardage offense last season, and is currently 11th in scoring and 12th in yards. He currently ranks 2nd in YPG, first for RBs with more than 38 carries, 2nd in rushing 1st-Downs behind only McCaffrey, 8th in YPC for RBs with more than 38 carries, and 5th in Long Run. Cook plays with Allen on a team that ranked 2nd in both scoring and yardage offense last season and which is currently 3rd in scoring and 4th in yardage O. I have no idea how that doesn't at least to a significant extent relate to coaching. ... on a side note.

And FWIW, here are Moss' and Cooks' numbers thus far this season. Keep in mind that Moss has played in only four games to Cook's five. Moss has 89 carries for 445 Yards, 3 rushing TDs, and 24 1st-Downs, a long run of 56, 5.0 YPC, and 111 YPG, 8 catches for 72 Yards, 1 receiving TD, and 517 YFS Cook has 61 carries for 292 Yards, 1 rushing TD, 14 1st-Downs, a long run of 36, 4.8 YPC, and 58 YPG; 14 catches for 140 and 0 receiving TDs, and 432 YFS. Moss plays with the rookie Richardson on a team that ranked 30th in scoring offense and 27th in yardage offense last season, and is currently 11th in scoring and 12th in yards. Cook plays with Allen on a team that ranked 2nd in both scoring and yardage offense last season and which is currently 3rd in scoring and 4th in yardage O. I have no idea how that doesn't at least to a significant extent relate to coaching. ... on a side note.

Just double-checking. I for one hope that you're correct, but I kind of view it oppositely. To me Groot has the higher ceiling. Oliver's had four seasons now to prove that he can be a consistent force. He's had difficulty ever stringing more than three maybe four good games together, and that without all but disappearing for large portions of the seasons otherwise, much less 8 games much less a full season of even average consistency. This season hangs in the balance as we're discussing this. [fingers crossed] I'd love to see Oliver turn into that beast that everyone was expecting when we drafted him. Oliver's in his prime this season, which may be why he achieves that. Not that it matters at this point, but Groot had a more impressive body of work in college, he played up against much bigger opponents. That doesn't apply so much to Oliver now, but it might to Groot. Rousseau, like Davis and Edmunds, and to a lesser extent a few other players, is only 23 and in fact just turned 23 several months ago. I can see either blossoming into elite players, but I wouldn't put money on Oliver doing it at this point. IMO he's simply trying to show that he deserved his contract and has come out of the gates swinging. We'll see whether he holds up, but if he does, let's not forget, it's taken him 5 seasons. The player that he's been often compared to, Aaron Donald, was already elite as a rookie. Groot needs to stay healthy. These naggers are looking like a possible issue. Obviously I hope that both blossom into terrors. It would be refreshing. I'd also like to see Beane quit drafting 21 year olds. Clarification my friend. You have a tendency to hedge and use a lot of 'if's', 'could's", and other potential type of descriptors. I try to nail down the expectation. It's easy to say this, that, or something else might/could happen, but if not, etc. It's a lot different to state one's position firmly. Even above, you say ... Presumably you mean Milano and Jones. Jones has never even sniffed "elite" until the past few games. The likelihood that he would have finished the season shattering anything that he's ever accomplished in a season, and at the age of 32, is highly unlikely. So your statement is a reach insofar as Jones goes and IMO everyone's massively overreacting to his loss. He posted a huge game against Howell @ the Skins, but the rest has hardly been anywhere close to that "elite" status. Milano, as you realize, I said prior to the season beginning, and for reasons that we both disagree on, we'd be screwed if he got injured for any length of time. Well, ... I pointed out elsewhere recently that even to date with him in, our rushing D is low-end, ranked 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed. That's unlikely to improve significantly. but if Ed holds out this level of play and Groot does as well, IMO we're much better off on the DL and we'll finally have two more elite players that Milano was, yet Jones was not. A two-fer if you will. LOL And yes, I'm joking. Yes, you've said that many times, that first sentence. As to the rest, we've also discussed that many times. I fail to see how a GM can be considered above-average with the drafting track record that Beane has. You do not. Free-Agency is much easier since it involves established players, good GMs can pluck elite players in teh draft better than their counterparts IMO. I don't think that there's a lot of conventional NFL wisdom that speaks to the contrary however. I spent a bunch of time looking for that but could never find it. You provided no link, so I have nothing to look at. As to the rest, you and I were specifically talking about "elite players" per your insistence that "a team needs 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl." That's what our discussion was pertaining to. So let's stick to that. I'm not talking about specific GMs, but the teams that are elite. KC's a bit of an odd example because they're riding the elite player performances of Jones & Kelce, but which also challenges your 4-5 elite players theory. As to the Eagles, I think you should include Jalen Carter who's already looking the part and playing better than any defensive player in his rookie season than anyone that Beane's ever drafted. I mean we're talking about Oliver coming into his own five seasons in, and Groot three seasons in. Carter's performing to top levels as a rookie. Also, Davonta Smith who's playing better than any offensive skill position player Beane's ever drafted. The Rams, their rookie WR is also playing better than any offensive skill position player that Beane's ever drafted, but agree, but also I probably shouldn't have included them. They were a one-year wonder that overachieved one season, but have gone 26-28 so far in their bookend seasons. Bengals: Burrow comps with Allen as does Mahomes, But that's still more than Beane's zero, and while not elite, it should be pointed out that Higgins is also better than any offensive skill positon player that Beane's ever drafted. As to the Niners, three is also more than zero, and let's not forget Purdy, the highest rated QB in the league right now by a margin, 3rd in TD% ahead of Allen, 2nd in Compl. % right behind Allen, and 1st in Success Rate. You're deviating from the point, to start, and B, Beane could very easily have picked Creed Humphrey over Basham in round 2. Purdy was plucked by the Niners in round 7 as was Mailata for the Eagles. Hurts was a 2nd-rounder just before AJE. Higgins was a 2nd-rounder. Samuel was a 2nd-rounder, Warner a 3rd-rounder. So your theory above holds little if any water. At the end of the day, all of those GMs have picked better in their drafts for impact players and elite players than Beane has, apart from the QBs which all have done. It's not difficult to be zero. If all of our opponents this season score zero, we'll finish 15-2 and finally win that elusive Lombardi.

Gilliam for $2.4M this season and 12% O snaps, and Matakevich about the same money and 0% D snaps. Both STs players but not excelling there.

There's also no guarantee that they'd have kept on playing to that level though either. There's no history of it in many seasons insofar as Oliver and Jones go. We have a history of starting the season strong but then fading generally speaking, at least relative to our early games. Let's not forget last season where after a half-dozen games everyone had us winning the Super Bowl. People went bananas after our first two games against the Rams and Tennessee. Agree with you though that it's not going to be as tragic as so many are making it out to be. And it's not as if we've played perfectly through five games either. Our running D blows, which explains why our total yardage D ranks higher than it probably should. But we currently rank 25th in rushing yards allowed and 31st in Yards-per-Carry allowed. As pointed out, the three games we've won were largely dependent upon +2, +3, and +4 TO margins. If we have to rely on a 2+ or greater TO margin to win games, it may not end well. Say what? I mean if we should be able to beat the Giants with Kyle Allen playing ...

Yeah, I'm not sure how they measure those either. But last season it's what everyone used to degrade the guy. IMO he's having a great season.

Yeah, well tough to disagree re: Settle. LOL He's getting paid an awful lot for that status. Questionable contract there.

And 30 QBHits. I imagine it'll slow down somewhat, but if he even finishes with 8 sacks and 20-some TFLs/QBHs that'd be great.

What happens if Allen goes down? Or Diggs? Or Torrence or Dawkins? Isn't Settle around? He's getting paid enough with a $4M signing bonus recently and another roughly $2.5M for the season otherwise. And what about Jordan Phillips?

Yeah, I remember it. Only one offical drop through five games however, notably better than last season and very much line with good WRs. His 3.8% drop % puts him in the company of Waddle, Aiyuk, AJ Brown, and Davante Adams.

So the last catch that he made here, for example, is a routine catch as you imply? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axzo6SP7hSE I also thought that his first TD catch, the negated one, was an exceptional non-routine catch as well, and one that not every WR makes. I'd like to find a video clip of that "drop," particularly since it wasn't catalogued as a drop by the league.

And to think, if we could simply have put up 26 points against a team featuring the 12th ranked scoring defense ...

Wasn't Ford signed for that reason?

Again, my question was ... Your response above. OK then, from what I'm reading, to date, the answer to the question is zero, barring the K, right? As to Groot, had his play over the first four games last season continued he'd have been not only a 1st-team, but All-Pro as well, and would have finished tied for 2nd in sacks a mere 2.5 sacks behind Bosa, 2nd in TFLs and tied for 14th in QBHits. But he waned and went the opposite direction over the last dozen games, even in his next four before his injury. AKA, ... didn't even approach happening. If Oliver continues his play linearly, then he'll have exceeded Aaron Donald's 2nd best season, and logged more TFLs than Donald ever logged, by 5, and will have exceeded Donald's QBHits numbers in all but 3 seasons. Are you truly optimistic that that even comes close to occurring? While I'd be as excited as you to see this, the reality is that it's very unlikely to occur. Oliver's had four seasons to post elite numbers and he's never come close. Both players have been plagued with significant inconsistency in their game-to-game play. In fairness Groot is only in his second season and did suffer an injury last season, but having said that, the phrase "injury prone" shouldn't be not of a concern re: him. And frankly, if they do, then that takes care of your hesitation regarding the requisite "elite players required to win the Super Bowl," right? In fact, given their level of play to date, why do concerns even exist then if they're both playing at elite levels? I mean to date an "elite DT" and an "elite DE"? That's what the going opinion here is now. So you'd give a GM 8 seasons, AFTER drafting a generational talent like Allen, who would then be 30 going into that next season, with an entirely new GM? "Starters in the NFL" isn't the standard here, by your definition it's "elite players." Moss is a starter. Zay Jones is a starter. Brown is a starter. Cook's a starter. Davis is a starter and he's persona non grata here. LOL We definitely have two different standards. I would never even consider keeping a GM beyond five years if he hasn't produced a single elite player, the likes of which you state that we need 4-5 of to win a Super Bowl, particularly with a generational talent like Allen then merely rotting on the vine. To wit, if 4-5 elite players are needed, and if you want to avoid serious cap issues, you'll need to draft at least 3 of them. One every 7 or 8 seasons will never see more than 2 on the field at the same time. You said this; Since our discussion revolves around his drafts, how so? I include his peers as the GMs of the teams that have been the most uniformly competitive over the past several seasons, not the GM of the Falcons, Texans, or Broncos. He's produced absolutely zero "elite players" in his drafts after his very first pick of Allen, which was a successful poke-n-hope for Allen, pending Groot & Oliver. Which GMs havent produced more than a single elite player in the last five drafts of theirs from '18 to '22? And for peers," again, let's consider the teams that have been our primary rivals over the past three seasons, namely KC, Philly, the Rams, Bengals, Niners for example. AKA, teams that we'd need to beat if we want our elusive Lombardi. OK, but not fair to Davis to credit it as a drop then either given the stigma that exists for him, and in that game, particularly given his very significant contributions to 2 TD drives. Just sayin'.

OK, then let's take this discussion a little further. You originally said, leading to my post above, that a team typically needs 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl. Given that neither Milano nor White were drafted by Beane, and those are the two players that everyone's crying about the most, and given that Jones wasn't a Beane draftee either, who then are the players that Beane has drafted, apart from Allen of course, that are elite and that therefore we'd need to win a Super Bowl? Because if one looks through our list of draftees by Beane, none match your description of being "elite." So the follow-on question is then, at what point does one suggest that Beane simply isn't cutting it in that way and that perhaps it's time for a change? You are not entirely loathe to criticize Beane, you should know me well enough to recognize sarcasm, but I've also never heard you suggest that perhaps he's not up to the task at hand. What many people see is a team that is in fact succeeding largely due to the very high-risk/high-reward drafting of Allen, an expensive market-priced WR as a free agent, and draftees that were here upon Beane's arrival. I'm curious what your answers to those questions are, without hedging. ... in all sincerety. And by all means, if you think that he's drafted an elite player since his very first selection upon arriving, who is that player? The most successful teams in the league are drafting them. Why aren't we. (rhetorical) It seems like an obvious answer to me. Gotta be another, that one didn't end the drive though.

Which drive was it that ended on a Davis drop, I can't find it? Was just looking. He's got one drop this season, I'm assuming, per this, that it was in this game.

Disagree as you may, they allowed their 4th most 1st-Downs, 4th most total yards, and 5th most passing yards that they did all season in the Super Bowl. The Eagles were also in the game due to offense. The total for that game was 73. Not sure how any one claims that defense won it. Three of the Chiefs' scoring drives were 75 yards, another was 66 yards. The Eagles had three 75s, a 68, and a 60. Without that defensive TD, which was one play, the Eagles win it, ... because of their Offense.

I piss in my own, it saves time. 😏😉 Hardly angry, I'm one of the least emotional people out there in that way. Simply not afraid to state the obvious, or what should be obvious.

Well, perhaps you're right, we'll see. But it also helps if your coaching staff can make optimal use of the offensive players that you do have. We haven't seen that on McD's watch. Having said that however, Jones isn't elite and neither Milano nor White were drafted by Beane. While you're loathe to criticize Beane, that sounds 100% like #Beanethingz. We can't keep claiming what you just said, then insulating Beane from the discussion about it. That makes zero sense.

We've been both spoiled and unhealthily enamored with having a #1/#2 Defense. Defense isn't what wins Super Bowls in this league now, Offense is! Just look at the last three winners and look at the scores for the winning teams generally speaking. Hell, look at our playoff exits. Having said that, our offense is fine and if there's any question there, it's our ability to, or lack thereof being more accurate, to out coach the opposing DC/HC to be able to capitalize against the better, read playoff caliber, teams. Using the proper personnel, in the right situations, and not routinely calling plays that are blatantly destined to lose yards or fall short in key situations, is requisite. We have the talent to set a new franchise record for scoring, and in no small way! We finally have a solid OL. We can win a Championship with a middle of the road D just like KC did last season. If anything's going to prevent that, apart from injuries on Offense, it's coaching. We have a defensive-minded coach when we need an offensive-minded one. And yes Gunner, I realize you disagree. 🤨😉

And our head coach is apparently too disconnected from anything offensively speaking that he cannot assist.

Norton!! ... It should hardly be worrisome, an OC that apart from two seasons with Allen carrying him, his offenses in going on 8 other seasons as OC and HC have perpetually challenged for league worst.