PBF81

Couldn't we say the same thing in reverse about our defensive play? I mean I'm in the process of going through sack by sack for every player in every game and circumstance, and the first game that I looked at stood out, our four sacks against Tua were all against him when the game was well in hand, all with us leading by 17, 21, 28, and 28, in three of the four cases in desperation situations. Do we discount those too then? You ask a good question, but doesn't the answer to it apply across the board on both sides for all teams, despite perhaps not equally but plus or minus, it's hardly anything that's unique to us. Here's the thing, if we're going to scrutinize that there, then how about our two biggest rushing fail games, 172 v. the Jets and 196 v. the Jags? We didn't have our backups in for those games, other than for injury, and in the Jags game. It's a good question the answer to which isn't unique to us in the rankings. About our D generally though, we apply a lot of pressure on D. That's McD's MO. The problem with that is that once teams start identifying your methodology, as Jax just did, then they start adjusting and taking advantage of those things, which is why new coaches or coordinators have an advantage in their first season, which for example might explain why Daboll came out of the gates strong last season starting 6-1 and 7-2, but then correspondingly why he's gone 4-10 since. Another problem with it is that you rely on big plays defensively, but then you also risk big plays going the other way, which is what we've seen with no shortage this season.

Bledsoe was awful in the playoffs, the Pats made the SB despite him. Have you looked at his playoff performances? His highest rated playoff game, of 6 starts, was 72.3. His totals in the three playoff games in the season that you mention were 59 of 105, for 595 Yards, 3 TDs, 7 INTs for an overall passer rating in those playoffs of 54.3. Here's the link to his playoff performances; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BledDr00/gamelog/post/ He had 4 INTs in that Super Bowl, I think three drives ended on sacks and what, five more drives ending on incompletions? I made a ton of money in that game wagering all of my Pats fan sucker friends. LOL

And 393 Yards of offense, and 142 rushing? I think we were talking about the rushing D as well, which isn't good nor has been this season. We typically start strong and get up for a couple of early home games. We'll see how things shake out as the season wears on.

It's only going to get worse. McD seems to have thrown his hands up re: any impact on the offense or helping Dorsey out. I'm not even sure he's capable. Defensively, the Jags seemed to have been the first team to have figured McD's D schemes out. It typically takes about that, 5 or 6 games before the better HCs and coordinators figure new Ds & Os out. That appears to be the case here. Should be interesting going forward.

It is true. Don't forget that Bledsoe is one of the absolute worst playoff QBs of all time. Brady was the anti-Bledsoe in that way. Also, BB's defenses were much better back then. His defenses were pretty solid until around 2010 when they started getting very inconsistent and somewhat dicey. Also, imagine what it's like to play 6 games every season with the likes of the QBs that we, the Jets, and Fins had for 20 years. Honestly, not a ringer in the bunch.

Yeah, maybe. Mayfield's only played us once but he had a great game and won. I just looked, Tampa seems to be struggling to put up points, but their "no name" D seems to be playing well.

Etienne ripped us a new one all game. Here's the thing, those big plays happen because we're trying to make big-plays on D but guess incorrectly.

It's interesing that you mention that. I meant to say it earlier, but yes, this defense is a big-play defense, but that's typically a double-edged sword, which people/fans don't often recognize. It's also why it's worked much better against Wilson/Jets, Howell/Skins, and Garropalo/Raiders and less so against Tua & Lawrence, with articles about the Jags/Lawrence talking about how they took advantage of our pass-rush. That's good coaching and Press Taylor's an OC that I have my eye on for becoming a HC. We'll see how his season develops. As to sacks and TOs, I've been saying for years, 20+ years, that they really need to track Sack-Success rates. By that I mean how many sacks end the drive. For example, suppose you log a sack on 1st-and-10, ... good for the team and a sack stat for the player. But if on 2nd-and-18 or subsequent to that the opponent gets a 1st-down, the sack was more or less for naught. It really didn't matter in the grand scheme. I've seen nowhere that keeps this. I'll start tracking it for us. Who knows, maybe 90% of ours end drives, I have no idea one way or the other, but the point is that sacks on their own merit, while they look good in the stats, for both player and team, unless it contributed to shutting down the offense they're all but irrelevant. Same for when they're logged on us. Two way street there too. Anyway, I'll go thru them and log them later tonight and see what's up, perhaps it'll give us a little bit more insight. BTW, I used to say that teams that live by the big play also die by the big play.

That YPA was notably worse prior to our injuries this week. We also rank 25th in rushing yards allowed. That's the problem with selective use of video to illustrate points. Bernard's been a pleasant surprise and the liability that he could have been. The issue is our D overall. It's very high-energy, and IMO contributing to the injury situation. It's built to stop the pass, which it's done nicely, but largely against Wilson, Garropalo, and Howard. Tua and Lawrence played alright, particularly considering that their OCs led them to a combined 338 rushing yards, or 169 rushing YPG against us. So it seems that some caution is advised. Meanwhile, Miami, seemingly a defense with less talent than us, is right there with us in the defensive rankings, yet with a somewhat better rushing defense, particularly the past four weeks.

Yeah, agree with that for the most part. I said prior to the season to expect our D to be middling this season, largely due to our rushing D, which hasn't been good all season really, not merely after the points in the game that Milano and Jones got hurt. I only see it getting worse now, but now the excuse to bail out coaching will be the injuries. In another thread I mentioned that it's quite likely, and per your comment above about players being winded, that this crazy high-energy scheme that we deploy could easily be factoring into our injuries as well. And no, it doesn't mean we suck, but offensively we are without question not getting the most from the configuration of talent that we do have, which befalls nothing other than coaching, which should be a simple concept. The fact that for the time being our pass defense is playing well is good, considering that it's a passing league more than running. But that's not to say that teams, like us, cannot be beat by our opponents running the ball effectively as they have now in at least three of our five games. We'll see what happens. But for me the most frustrating thing is watching our offense not effectively utilized Kincaid or even some of the other players, over-relying on Diggs, and generally getting less from more there. We should be able to beat the Giants with Kyle Allen starting if necessary though. The next three weeks should easily be wins, even with whatever woes anyone sees us as having, none of the teams that we face over the next three weeks are any better than we are right now.

Well there's an odds-on statement if there ever was one. Dallas isn't winning one either. So there. Just horsin' with ya. Our playoff performance will hinge upon our offense, which apparently hinges on coaching, which brings up questions. I was hopeful at the beginning of the season that our offense would be prolific, and it's still on pace to set a franchise record for Points Scored. We're on pace for 540, our prior team best is 501 in 2020. But I see coaching as holding us back, and the underutilization of our offensive talent, like Kincaid primarily, and last year Hines for example, tells me that Dorsey is the one holding this offense back, not particularly from ranking 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, but from being much better than it is and particularly in key situations, most of which have been discussed here frequently. It's also indicative that the other players aren't always being optimally used. McD appears to be neutered to do anything regarding the offense, which is also problematic. The defense, seemingly by design, still has great passing D potential and plenty of above-average coverage players and even pass-rushers, even at LB where Bernard and Williams both came into the league with high-end coverage skills. But ignoring our 31st YPC and 25 YPG defensive rushing rankings is a mistake. So far four teams have rushed for over 100 on us, last season only 6 did all season long besides Cincy in the playoffs. Last season only five ran against us for over 140, this season already three have. We also don't play the same set on D, I'm not sure what we play the most, but the players in in the varying spots gets confusing for that reason. It seems to have worked re: our passing game, but our rushing game is suspect. It'll be interesting to see how opposing offenses take on our McD's D now that video has become available for them to prepare by.

Teams are already averaging 5.8 YPC (31st) against us, and 134 YPG. (25th)

In Oliver's all-important junior season he loaded up his stats on East Carolina, Rice, and Navy, not one team of which had good offense or more than 3 wins. Groot played in the ACC, not the SEC. He was at Miami for one season after a red-shirt rookie year. He was an enigma there. None of that is important, we're all hoping that he finally, but after four seasons, turns into that "beast" that everyone claimed would mimic Donald. I'll take 75% of Donald. LOL Where we differ is in the likelihood of that happening. We'll see, hopefully he does. Groot, as with you, IMO he'll be fine, but again, last season he also started quickly. Last season in his first four games he started with 4 Sacks, 5 TFLs, and 6 QBHits. This season through four games he's logged 3 Sacks, 4 TFLs, and 4 QBHits, lest we forget that many said the same thing about him at this time last season. So we'll see. Here's the thing that most people do not take into account. Many players go in streaks. As you talked about elite players, they typically show up all the time with perhaps a bad game or two, sometimes three throughout the season. But other players often put up only 3, 4, 5, or 6 good games a season. Sometimes those games are up front, and given that we're a team that typically comes out of the gates swinging when the season begins, almost as if our September record dictates whether or not we go to the Super Bowl. I'm being partially facetious BTW. The point is that some players simply run that streak early on. Not just on our team, but throughout the league. It's bad form to extrapolate stats, particularly in the case of a player like Jones, from his first quarter, throughout the season when in 9 other seasons he's never come close to doing anything like that. At 32 it's highly unlikely that the 10th time's the charm. He's never even made a Pro-Bowl but we all had him penciled in as playing to that level. Difference of opinion then on that first part. Which is fine. Please don't take any of this personally. Please don't. We'll see on the rest. Obviously we'd both love for that to happen. I simply look at decades of NFL history in terms of individual performance, and law-of-averages kind of stuff, which grounds me in my optimism. You are clearly very bullish on that occuring per above and prior posts, whereas I am very cautiously optimistic, and having been burned numerous times in the past. For example, everyone's talking about how much better our defense is under McD than under Frazier. But here are some facts that no one wants to hear to the contrary. We've allowed an average of 65 more YPG and fewer points (61) v. (80). Our rushing D has collapsed, and that was even before our injuries this week. Last season we allowed 10 rushing TDs all season, 4.3 YPC, and 104.6 YPG. This season to date we've already allowed 4 rushing TDs, we've allowed 5.8 YPC, and 134.0 YPG. Even before this week we allowed 118.5 YPG on 6.3 YPC. When I mention the law-of-averages, consider, we're presently on pace for 71 Sacks, 98 TFLs, and 142 QBHits. Those would have ranked first across the board by last season's measures, same for the year prior. So we need to ask ourselves in the process of analysis, is that likely to continue. Have you read the pieces about how Jax picked our pass-rush apart and [via great coaching not apparent on our side, not sure how a flight affects that] after having reviewed it? Sure, we got 5 sacks and plenty of pressure, but Jax adapted to it according to multiple reports, and Lawrence had a great day. Instead of getting giddy, I ask myself, is our record-setting defensive pace likely to continue? Not saying impossible, but likely. IMO, no. Again, that's MO, but based upon decades of doing football analytics. IOW, I was doing "metrics" before metrics was even a thing. What happens is that the law-of-averages takes over. The reasons why that pace isn't likely to be sustained are several, but injuries can easily be one of them. But consider, and again, we don't have to agree, but simply consider, that perhaps the reasons for our injuries are at least in part due to the overall aggressive style of play that we're deploying here. I won't go into details as these posts are long enough, but think generally of the methods employed to get our players to be so crazy swarming. As I see it, it's quite possible and even likely that our swarming aggressive style of pass defense has contributed to our injuries. Not saying all, like White, but others. And perhaps not even on a given play, but perhaps simply the greater than normal wear-n-tear during a game, but also as the season rolls on. Food for thought there. OK, this is where you and I break. Agree on Milano and the LBs, not sure why you think I'm saying the opposite. If I did then I misspoke. Don't read too much into everything. Btu on the "ESPECIALLY against the run," then why is our run D notably worse? ... and again, even before the injuries on Sunday, many of which occurred well after Etienne was already putting a hurting on us. As we've discussed, with the exception now of your statements about our run D, above, IMO we now see teams run more UTM on us for two reasons. First, Milano's out and he's played Middle just as much as Bernard has, perhaps simply not officially on the depth chart, but he's been lined up in a 2 LB set opposite whomever's been next to him, and not always Bernard either, frequently. But secondly, because it appears that teams have started to figure out our "new" defense under McD. As to White, he hasn't been a factor since early last season, so I'm not sure why his injury all of a sudden changes our D as it's been for most of last season at all. And he sucked when he got back anyway. We've been through this, you continue to ignore it. Well, in applying your standard, and per this thread, we need 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl. So using that standard, namely yours, after his very first draft pick, Allen, he's drafted exactly zero elite players, which by your standard would seem to indicate that he's not cutting the mustard here. A team full of "non-bust players" isn't necessarily a good team. The goal isn't to draft non-busts, it's to draft impact/elite players as even you imply. Beane has not done that. We can continue to debate as to whether or not after 6 drafts that makes him a good GM or not, but IMO yours is an uphill argument given that. Again, it's OK to disagree. Absolutely nothing that you or I discuss matters in terms of what actually happens. You're missing the point on players like Carter and Purdy. The point is that those players are contributing immediately, as rookies, or have and continue to in Purdy's case. Their teams and fans aren't saying five seasons in, this is finally the season that so-and-so breaks out. That's partly why I criticize Beane far too often taking 21-year olds in the drafts, they're not ready to play at a high level. He should know this. Not saying that's the only reason, but again, the primary point here is that those draft picks are contributing heavily, as in making significant impacts, in their first seasons and if not as rookies, then in their second seasons. Here, we talk about hoping that Oliver isn't once again inconsistent in his 5th season, or Rousseau in his third. Talking about Jones "finally breaking out" (my words) if that's even true, in his 10th, yet as a free agent. That's where Beane is falling short and it's hardly a minor issue. Yeah, that's pretty much where we disagree. Our goals are the same as fans. But Stef was an expensive free agent. Not difficult to figure that he'd be good, particularly for that price, which he then owes. Matt wasn't Beane's pick. Neither was Tre, so I leave them out of the Beane conversation. Completely agree with you in principle on that bolded part. But again, where we do not view things similarly, which is fine, is in that the others that I've mentioned play well essentially from "day one." Not literally, but more proverbially, out of the gate in their rookie seasons as it were. Whereas Oliver's in his 5th season and we're simply hoping for 2nd-round performance from a trade-up 1st. He was a trade-up, right? I forget. But either way, in his fifth season. Rousseau in his 3rd. AJE in his 4th. Cook's a 2-down RB and will never be anything else. Torrence already appears to be a monster, but it's taken Beane 6 drafts to land one OL-man like that. Bernard still has limitations and we'll see how that plays out in his second season. But that's the primary difference, while our biggest competitors get solid play from their impact/elite players from their rookie seasons or early in their second seasons, we're hoping that our prospects for impact play materialize in Beane's selections 3rd, 4th, and 5th seasons. And again, disagreement is fine. This is a discussion forum. At the end of the day we both and all hope that the team sets records both offensively and defensively, and that we're all screaming our lungs out following a Super Bowl victory come February. GO BILLS!!! How's our dome coming along?

The point was that your slant was purely hypothetical. You said in relation to Ford stepping in for Jones, what if Ford goes down. I suppose we deal with the injuries if and when they come. There's no sense in attempting to cover every possible permutation that could result from injuries. And OK, we had a couple of key injuries on Sunday, why should we expect that to repeat itself, and if it does, then perhaps we need to start looking at our training regimen, coaching for how prepared our team is, etc. Milano was a huge loss, and one that I sternly warned about should we not start getting some capable LBs that could defend the run, where we currently rank near DFL. Jones not so much, his loss people are overreacting to. The odds of him playing in the next 12 games like he has to date were remote anyway. We'll see what happens, but Gunner and I have been having a go round in discussing and hoping that both Oliver and Rousseau bloom into elite players. If that happens we'll be more than fine. Our pass D will be OK either way. Milano was a good pass defender, but so are Williams and Bernard.

LOL, thanks for the catch. Corrected. Even worse tho.

And FWIW, here are Moss' and Cooks' numbers thus far this season. Keep in mind that Moss has played in only four games to Cook's five. Moss has 89 carries for 445 Yards, 3 rushing TDs, and 24 1st-Downs, a long run of 56, 5.0 YPC, and 111 YPG, 8 catches for 72 Yards, 1 receiving TD, and 517 YFS Cook has 61 carries for 292 Yards, 1 rushing TD, 14 1st-Downs, a long run of 36, 4.8 YPC, and 58 YPG; 14 catches for 140 and 0 receiving TDs, and 432 YFS. Moss plays with the rookie Richardson on a team that ranked 30th in scoring offense and 27th in yardage offense last season, and is currently 11th in scoring and 12th in yards. He currently ranks 2nd in YPG, first for RBs with more than 38 carries, 2nd in rushing 1st-Downs behind only McCaffrey, 8th in YPC for RBs with more than 38 carries, and 5th in Long Run. Cook plays with Allen on a team that ranked 2nd in both scoring and yardage offense last season and which is currently 3rd in scoring and 4th in yardage O. I have no idea how that doesn't at least to a significant extent relate to coaching. ... on a side note.

And FWIW, here are Moss' and Cooks' numbers thus far this season. Keep in mind that Moss has played in only four games to Cook's five. Moss has 89 carries for 445 Yards, 3 rushing TDs, and 24 1st-Downs, a long run of 56, 5.0 YPC, and 111 YPG, 8 catches for 72 Yards, 1 receiving TD, and 517 YFS Cook has 61 carries for 292 Yards, 1 rushing TD, 14 1st-Downs, a long run of 36, 4.8 YPC, and 58 YPG; 14 catches for 140 and 0 receiving TDs, and 432 YFS. Moss plays with the rookie Richardson on a team that ranked 30th in scoring offense and 27th in yardage offense last season, and is currently 11th in scoring and 12th in yards. Cook plays with Allen on a team that ranked 2nd in both scoring and yardage offense last season and which is currently 3rd in scoring and 4th in yardage O. I have no idea how that doesn't at least to a significant extent relate to coaching. ... on a side note.

Just double-checking. I for one hope that you're correct, but I kind of view it oppositely. To me Groot has the higher ceiling. Oliver's had four seasons now to prove that he can be a consistent force. He's had difficulty ever stringing more than three maybe four good games together, and that without all but disappearing for large portions of the seasons otherwise, much less 8 games much less a full season of even average consistency. This season hangs in the balance as we're discussing this. [fingers crossed] I'd love to see Oliver turn into that beast that everyone was expecting when we drafted him. Oliver's in his prime this season, which may be why he achieves that. Not that it matters at this point, but Groot had a more impressive body of work in college, he played up against much bigger opponents. That doesn't apply so much to Oliver now, but it might to Groot. Rousseau, like Davis and Edmunds, and to a lesser extent a few other players, is only 23 and in fact just turned 23 several months ago. I can see either blossoming into elite players, but I wouldn't put money on Oliver doing it at this point. IMO he's simply trying to show that he deserved his contract and has come out of the gates swinging. We'll see whether he holds up, but if he does, let's not forget, it's taken him 5 seasons. The player that he's been often compared to, Aaron Donald, was already elite as a rookie. Groot needs to stay healthy. These naggers are looking like a possible issue. Obviously I hope that both blossom into terrors. It would be refreshing. I'd also like to see Beane quit drafting 21 year olds. Clarification my friend. You have a tendency to hedge and use a lot of 'if's', 'could's", and other potential type of descriptors. I try to nail down the expectation. It's easy to say this, that, or something else might/could happen, but if not, etc. It's a lot different to state one's position firmly. Even above, you say ... Presumably you mean Milano and Jones. Jones has never even sniffed "elite" until the past few games. The likelihood that he would have finished the season shattering anything that he's ever accomplished in a season, and at the age of 32, is highly unlikely. So your statement is a reach insofar as Jones goes and IMO everyone's massively overreacting to his loss. He posted a huge game against Howell @ the Skins, but the rest has hardly been anywhere close to that "elite" status. Milano, as you realize, I said prior to the season beginning, and for reasons that we both disagree on, we'd be screwed if he got injured for any length of time. Well, ... I pointed out elsewhere recently that even to date with him in, our rushing D is low-end, ranked 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed. That's unlikely to improve significantly. but if Ed holds out this level of play and Groot does as well, IMO we're much better off on the DL and we'll finally have two more elite players that Milano was, yet Jones was not. A two-fer if you will. LOL And yes, I'm joking. Yes, you've said that many times, that first sentence. As to the rest, we've also discussed that many times. I fail to see how a GM can be considered above-average with the drafting track record that Beane has. You do not. Free-Agency is much easier since it involves established players, good GMs can pluck elite players in teh draft better than their counterparts IMO. I don't think that there's a lot of conventional NFL wisdom that speaks to the contrary however. I spent a bunch of time looking for that but could never find it. You provided no link, so I have nothing to look at. As to the rest, you and I were specifically talking about "elite players" per your insistence that "a team needs 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl." That's what our discussion was pertaining to. So let's stick to that. I'm not talking about specific GMs, but the teams that are elite. KC's a bit of an odd example because they're riding the elite player performances of Jones & Kelce, but which also challenges your 4-5 elite players theory. As to the Eagles, I think you should include Jalen Carter who's already looking the part and playing better than any defensive player in his rookie season than anyone that Beane's ever drafted. I mean we're talking about Oliver coming into his own five seasons in, and Groot three seasons in. Carter's performing to top levels as a rookie. Also, Davonta Smith who's playing better than any offensive skill position player Beane's ever drafted. The Rams, their rookie WR is also playing better than any offensive skill position player that Beane's ever drafted, but agree, but also I probably shouldn't have included them. They were a one-year wonder that overachieved one season, but have gone 26-28 so far in their bookend seasons. Bengals: Burrow comps with Allen as does Mahomes, But that's still more than Beane's zero, and while not elite, it should be pointed out that Higgins is also better than any offensive skill positon player that Beane's ever drafted. As to the Niners, three is also more than zero, and let's not forget Purdy, the highest rated QB in the league right now by a margin, 3rd in TD% ahead of Allen, 2nd in Compl. % right behind Allen, and 1st in Success Rate. You're deviating from the point, to start, and B, Beane could very easily have picked Creed Humphrey over Basham in round 2. Purdy was plucked by the Niners in round 7 as was Mailata for the Eagles. Hurts was a 2nd-rounder just before AJE. Higgins was a 2nd-rounder. Samuel was a 2nd-rounder, Warner a 3rd-rounder. So your theory above holds little if any water. At the end of the day, all of those GMs have picked better in their drafts for impact players and elite players than Beane has, apart from the QBs which all have done. It's not difficult to be zero. If all of our opponents this season score zero, we'll finish 15-2 and finally win that elusive Lombardi.

Gilliam for $2.4M this season and 12% O snaps, and Matakevich about the same money and 0% D snaps. Both STs players but not excelling there.

There's also no guarantee that they'd have kept on playing to that level though either. There's no history of it in many seasons insofar as Oliver and Jones go. We have a history of starting the season strong but then fading generally speaking, at least relative to our early games. Let's not forget last season where after a half-dozen games everyone had us winning the Super Bowl. People went bananas after our first two games against the Rams and Tennessee. Agree with you though that it's not going to be as tragic as so many are making it out to be. And it's not as if we've played perfectly through five games either. Our running D blows, which explains why our total yardage D ranks higher than it probably should. But we currently rank 25th in rushing yards allowed and 31st in Yards-per-Carry allowed. As pointed out, the three games we've won were largely dependent upon +2, +3, and +4 TO margins. If we have to rely on a 2+ or greater TO margin to win games, it may not end well. Say what? I mean if we should be able to beat the Giants with Kyle Allen playing ...

Yeah, I'm not sure how they measure those either. But last season it's what everyone used to degrade the guy. IMO he's having a great season.

Yeah, well tough to disagree re: Settle. LOL He's getting paid an awful lot for that status. Questionable contract there.

And 30 QBHits. I imagine it'll slow down somewhat, but if he even finishes with 8 sacks and 20-some TFLs/QBHs that'd be great.

What happens if Allen goes down? Or Diggs? Or Torrence or Dawkins? Isn't Settle around? He's getting paid enough with a $4M signing bonus recently and another roughly $2.5M for the season otherwise. And what about Jordan Phillips?

Yeah, I remember it. Only one offical drop through five games however, notably better than last season and very much line with good WRs. His 3.8% drop % puts him in the company of Waddle, Aiyuk, AJ Brown, and Davante Adams.