Lori

BUFFALO BILLS (3-4) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-3) SUNDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2005 – 8:30 PM ET GILLETTE STADIUM, FOXBOROUGH, MA ESPN: Mike Patrick, Paul Maguire, Joe Theismann, Suzy Kolber REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECORD: New England leads, 48-40-1 PLAYOFF RECORD: New England leads, 1-0 NOT-READY-FOR-PRIME-TIME PLAYERS: Considering the Bills’ record of futility in their last four appearances on Sunday night broadcasts, I’m amazed ESPN wants to show any more Buffalo games. By the numbers… Combined scores of those games: 119-18. Bills offensive touchdowns: 0. Turnover margin: -16. Ugh. Hand me the remote, willya? LAST MEETING: November 14, 2004 – Patriots 29, Bills 6 The latest Sunday Night Special - New England built a 23-0 lead before a 70-yard Jonathan Smith punt return late in the third quarter saved Buffalo the embarrassment of a second straight shutout loss in Foxborough. Drew Bledsoe was a forgettable 8-19 for 76 yards and 3 interceptions on the night; in garbage time, the Patriot defense gave rookie J.P. Losman a rude welcome to the NFL. For New England, Corey Dillon piled up 151 yards on 26 carries, Tom Brady threw two short TD passes, and Adam Vinatieri added five FGs in the easy win. OVERVIEW OFFENSE: (#3 in total yardage, #27 rushing, #2 passing) With LT Matt Light still sidelined by a Week 3 leg injury, only one current starter remains from the Patriot offense that took the field for Super Bowl XXXVI. That one player, of course, is Brady; he comes into this game 7-1 as a starter against Buffalo, with 14 touchdown passes and a 91.4 QB rating in those eight games. Brady’s one of the best in the business at beating the blitz - the Bills found that out the hard way last September, blitzing on more than half of the Patriots’ passing plays in that game only to see him consistently shred their secondary before the passrushers got to him. They tried different tactics in the rematch, easing off on the blitz calls and concentrating more on coverage; they were slightly more successful, forcing a couple of sacks and an INT, but the end result was still the same – a double-digit New England victory. The Bills’ staggering run defense might catch a sizable break this week – last I heard, Corey Dillon still isn’t practicing and is listed as questionable for Sunday. With backup Kevin Faulk already out, FB Patrick Pass started at RB against Denver. Pass is a decent runner and good receiver out of the backfield, but he’s not Dillon. Amos Zereoue is the only other RB on the roster. Bills DBs will be seeing reigning Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch for the first time since 2003; he was inactive for both games last year. David Givens is the other starter; both he and Branch have given Buffalo problems in the past. Veterans Tim Dwight and Troy Brown and speedster Bethel Johnson are also in the mix. TEs Daniel Graham and Ben Watson are both former first-round picks with playmaking potential; either one of them could create a mismatch over the middle, especially if Lawyer Milloy stays up in run support. The right side of the line should be solid; center Dan Koppen and RG Stephen Neal both started in Super Bowl XXXIX, and RT Tom Ashworth is back from the injury that cost him most of last season. The left side is a different story, though – while 2005 first-round pick Logan Mankins was expected to eventually take over at LG, the injury to Light has forced another rookie, Nick Kaczur, into the lineup at LT. As a result, Brady has seen a lot more pressure this year, and has taken some big hits. He’s only been sacked seven times, but a good part of that can be attributed to his quick decision-making and fast release. DEFENSE: (#25 in total yardage, #24 rushing, #24 passing) Three-time Pro Bowl DL Richard Seymour should return to the lineup this weekend, bringing the defensive line rotation back to full strength. Fellow first-round picks Ty Warren (LE) and Vince Wilfork (NT) join Seymour in the Pats’ base 3-4, but these are the Patriots – expect to see some 3-4, 4-3, and whatever else Bill Belichick and new DC Eric Mangini have devised to mess with the minds of Buffalo’s QBs and playcallers. Jarvis Green, who started in Seymour’s absence, will also see his share of action. By now, OLBs Willie McGinest and Mike Vrabel have to know the defensive mindset almost as well as Belichick himself; when a big play is needed, expect one or the other to be lurking nearby. (Vrabel can also move inside if needed.) Rosevelt Colvin never quite made it all the way back from that devastating hip injury, but he still provides solid depth on the outside. There’s trouble at ILB, though - Chad Brown and Monty Beisel have proven inadequate replacements for Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson, and the run D has suffered as a result. Bruschi’s return would obviously be a huge emotional lift, but what kind of game shape he’s in remains to be seen. In the secondary, the loss of SS Rodney Harrison can’t be overstated. He helped hold the defense together last season when DBs started dropping like flies around him; rookie James Sanders may have inherited the SS position, but there’s no way he can duplicate Harrison’s on-field leadership. Eugene Wilson is the FS; the converted college CB has held the position ever since Lawyer Milloy was released. Asante Samuel mans one CB spot, but the other one is a mess. Tyrone Poole? Back on crutches. Chad Scott? IR. The Pats traded for Duane Starks in the offseason, but have been underwhelmed with the results; if he’s healthy enough, Randall Gay may reclaim that spot as early as this weekend. SPECIAL TEAMS: Surprise, surprise – Adam Vinatieri is his usual steady self. He’s 9-10 from under 50 yards so far in 2005; the only miss – a 37-yarder again San Diego – was his first from inside 45 since the end of the 2003 season. “Automatic Adam” has also added two more game-winning FGs (vs. Pittsburgh and Atlanta) to his resume this season, bringing his career total to 20 fourth-quarter/OT game-winners. Punter Josh Miller has had one kick blocked, but other than that is having a solid year with a 38.5-yard net average and only two touchbacks. Veteran Tim Dwight handles punt returns; Bethel Johnson and rookie CB Ellis Hobbs have split time on kick returns. Johnson’s one to watch – he’s returned a kickoff for a TD in each of his first two seasons. Are the kick-coverage teams any better than they were last year, when the Bills scored a return TD in each game? We’ll see. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK: Where better to spend Halloween Eve than at Buffalo's personal haunted house, Gillette Stadium? Nightmare at One Patriot Place, indeed. In the three games played there since the place opened for business in 2002, the Bills have yet to score in the first half, are a cumulative -12 in turnover margin, and have lost by an average of 21 points. With numbers like that, perhaps a nice horror movie might be a more palatable viewing choice for Bills fans Sunday night… There’s this, though: New England is more vulnerable right now than at any point since their playoff run began. Brady has had to shoulder more of the load on offense, and there’s a hole through the middle of the D. I like the matchup of Moulds and Evans against the Pats DBs… but will Holcomb have time to get the ball to them? With Mike Williams questionable and backup Greg Jerman out, what, exactly, is plan B at right tackle? (And how will that affect the running game?) And will rumored changes in the Bills’ defensive scheme mean improvement against the run? (It can’t get any worse... can it?) Yes, the Pats are vulnerable. Unfortunately, Buffalo doesn’t appear to have a team capable of taking advantage of that, especially not on the road. And regardless of whether or not Bruschi actually plays a down this week, when he runs out of the tunnel in uniform Sunday night and the resulting roar blows the roof off the lighthouse at “The Razor”, it could signal yet another bad weekend in New England. This week, at least, I hope I’m dead wrong. Go Bills. Links: NFL.com injury report NFL.com Patriots depth chart NFL.com Patriots team stats Ourlads.com – Patriots depth chart Patriots.com bostonsportsmedia.com www.patsfans.com

Seriously - I second the "welcome back".

You are one crazy dingo, you know that? Now what's that old adage? Something about there being a fine line between genius and insanity.... Seriously, some good reading in this thread (and GG's response).

Feel free to work yourself into a lather over this, Fez, but in my opinion, the Raiders did nothing wrong. And as was said earlier: if the Bills defense didn't want that last TD scored on them, maybe they should've freakin' tackled somebody. #&%! this, it's past my bedtime. Later, all.

And division points no longer exists as a tiebreaker - after strength of schedule, you go right to "Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed." That's the #6 tiebreaker between 2 teams in different divisions, #7 between three or more. The three tiebreakers immediately following also involve net points. As I said: Likely? No. But it exists. And as long as it does, Turner was just doing his job.

There's no point-differential tiebreaker once you get to the playoffs. That's one difference I see. And to your earlier post, I only had to go back to 1998, and the reason the Bills played at Miami in the WC game instead of them coming here: Miami finished ahead of Buffalo based on better net point totals in division games. One more TD in any of Buffalo's division games, and that playoff game would've been at RWS. Likewise: PIT over JAX 1997 for the AFC Central Championship, net points in division games SD over OAK 1980 for the AFC West Championship, net points in division games PHI over DAL 1980 for the NFC East Championship, net points in division games CHI over WAS 1979 for the last wildcard spot, total net points CHI over WAS 1977 for the last wildcard, net points in conference games Not like either of these teams are likely to end up in a playoff tiebreaker, but it has happened before...

Just out of curiosity, which four LBs would you use?

Anyone remember Billy Jenkins? You know, the guy who Coy Wire beat for the SS job Wire's rookie year?

New England -7.5, eh? Average score of the last three NE-BUF games at the Razor: 29-8. Average halftime score: 23-0. Combined scores of Buffalo's last four games on ESPN: 119-18. I think I need to make a phone call...

Perhaps - but when the D gives up 6 scores in 10 possessions, McGahee moves down my list of people to blame....

I still read Simmons whenever I can, but I think he was better back when he was still on DigitalCity Boston. (Krafty Bob, Pete Carroll as 'Fredo', "The Tuna That Shagged Me"... great stuff.) Of course, the fact that he spent a good deal of his time back then writing about how his beloved Sawx and Pats had never won anything in his lifetime may have had something to do with that....

Yikes. :cringing: Back to this game. Frerotte 11-29 for 125 yards, an INT, and a couple of sacks. Is it too early to start the "We want the Lemon!!!" chant in Miami?

And you're still married ?!?

Stopped to ask for directions to the Sundowner on his way by...

They tried the same thing with Michael Bishop, as I recall. Bishop's in the CFL now; could that be Davey's next stop?

(paraphrasing) Eisen: has Roethlisberger ruined it for all the young QBs who follow him? SW: (laughs) SW: coaches have to make tough decisions. We were 1-3, and you don't blame it on one guy, but sometimes you need to change things up. on how JP's dealing with the demotion: he handled it beautifully, said all the right things to the media, working harder than ever in the weight room and on the practice field. He'll be all right, he's still going to be a good quarterback. KH: has gotten us out of some bad playcalls, made accurate throws in some windy conditions last week, and generally picked up the tempo - he's played enough that he doesn't need the time to think/process that JP still does.

Go Chiefs. I'm starting both Holmes and LJ this week...

I'm going to guess he's got too much accumulated time to be PS-eligible. I realize he's barely played (since Brady never comes out of the game), but if he was even listed as the #2 QB for nine or more games last season, that would still count as an accrued season... I think.

Jeez. I'm going to have to let out my hatband again. While I wouldn't be averse to a link from the TBD homepage, I like the idea of keeping these in a message-board format. As I've said before - feedback, constructive criticism, and even opposing viewpoints are all welcome... And in my opinion, there's no better place to accomplish that than here on the Wall.

Fair enough, regarding Treu/Grove. I like Grove a lot; in fact, I think there was a loud contingent here on the Wall in favor of drafting him. Guess my point was more along the lines of the Raiders having an experienced vet - and one who's already worked with all of his linemates - ready to step in without having to disrupt the rest of their line. (Unlike the Jets, for example - if they move Kendall to C, then they'll have to replace him at G. Domino effect.) I like what he says about their pass protection...

True, that. You're talking about the hit that sent Brady's helmet about 10 yards up the sideline, right? Clean, but brutal...

Ahhhh.... sweet memories.... the punks from the U strutting off their team plane in their camouflage and sunglasses. Irvin talking *! all week about how our DBs couldn't cover him, then developing a bad case of alligator arms after Isom and Cobbs smacked him around a little bit. And Mr. Heisman Trophy coming up small in the big game, again. Since I didn't have the $$$ to make the trip to Tempe, I watched that game at a friend's off-campus apartment. And when Gifto cradled Vinny's final pass of the evening, I swear the building started shaking. Man. I'm tearing up just thinking about it. Wish my #31 (Conlan) jersey still fit - if it did, I would've worn it to the game last Sunday and spent the entire afternoon yelling "Throw it to me Vinny, I'm open !!!"

re: game not being televised nationally... IIRC, there's some kind of contractual-obligations nonsense that prohibits the networks from doing a national telecast of an NFL game if there's a college game scheduled to be broadcast at the same time. So, if ESPN has a college game tomorrow night... no NFL.

Agreed. Can you imagine - despite the matador run D, losing TKO, the o-line questions, and (IMO) not giving Losman the gameplan he needed, this team could've been 5-1 right now. Not sure whether that says more about the Bills, or the current state of the league....

BUFFALO BILLS (3-3) AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-4) SUNDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2005 - 4:15 PM EDT McAFEE COLISEUM, OAKLAND, CA CBS: Bill Macatee and Rich Gannon REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECORD: Oakland/LA/Oakland leads, 18-15. Bills are 4-9 in Oakland; 1-2 in Los Angeles. PLAYOFF RECORD: Buffalo leads, 2-0. LAST MEETING: September 19, 2004 – Raiders 13, Bills 10 Was he in? Bills fans have to wonder how differently the 2004 season might have played out, had any of the referees signaled a touchdown on Travis Henry’s fourth-and-goal plunge… A late Bledsoe-to-Moulds TD pulled Buffalo within a FG, but Jerry Porter recovered the onside kick and two Rich Gannon kneeldowns ran the final 1:17 off the clock. An ugly game for the Bills, lowlighted by 67 rushing yards, 7 sacks given up, and two long kick returns wiped out by penalties. Oakland was almost as bad, but early in the second quarter, rookie safety Rashad Baker bit on a pump-fake and Gannon found Ronald Curry wide open for a 43-yard touchdown, Curry’s first career score. The Raiders tacked on a couple of second-half FGs, then held on for the win. OVERVIEW OFFENSE: The big question, of course, is whether or not Randy Moss will be able to play Sunday. (He’s currently listed as “doubtful”.) Without him, either Alvis Whitted or Doug Gabriel will line up opposite Jerry Porter; both have the speed to get deep, but not having to defend Moss would obviously be an advantage for the Buffalo D. Porter and Gabriel have playmaking potential, but both have had problems with consistency and durability in the past. At 6-7 and 270 pounds, TE Courtney Anderson provides a huge target over the middle. I’d hate to see Troy Vincent try to take him down one-on-one… After finishing last in the league in rushing last season, the Raiders cut ties with Amos Zereoue and Tyrone Wheatley and spent some serious cash to sign LaMont Jordan away from the Jets. So far, the results aren’t promising; the team is actually averaging ten yards less per game than in 2004. Given how the Bills have played against the run lately, though, they certainly can’t afford to take Jordan lightly. He’s a threat out of the backfield, too – he currently leads the team with 26 catches. FB Zack Crockett is a capable lead blocker and a good short-yardage specialist. The line is massive; every OL on the roster checks in at 300+ lbs. LT Barry Sims, RG Ron Stone, and RT Robert Gallery are all returning starters. C Jake Grove will probably miss this game with a knee injury, but backup Adam Treu was the starter at that spot last year; going back to Treu shouldn’t mean much of a dropoff. 6-8, 345 lb. road-grader Langston Walker is the new LG. After only giving up 30 sacks in 2004, Oakland has already allowed 12 this year. Credit at least part of that to the renewed emphasis on the vertical passing game, rather than the quick drops and shorter routes that were the hallmark of the Jon Gruden/Rich Gannon era. While J.P. Losman’s NFL roller-coaster ride is just starting, QB Kerry Collins has been around the track more than once; the former Nittany Lion great went from starting the 1996 NFC Championship Game for Carolina to looking for work four weeks into the 1998 season. A forgettable seven-game stint with New Orleans was followed by a measure of redemption (and a trip to the Super Bowl) with the Giants, before Collins landed in Oakland last year. Kerry can make all the throws, but he doesn’t always take care of the ball – he shares the single-season fumble record (23) with Daunte Culpepper. He’s played pretty well so far in 2005, though, throwing 6 TD passes and only 1 interception in the first five games. DEFENSE: The much-hyped move to a 3-4, New England-style defense in 2004 didn’t work out so well. (By the numbers: #30 in passing and total defense; #31 in sacks; #29 in interceptions, -17 turnover differential.) Oakland has apparently learned from that mistake. Warren Sapp is back at DT, lining up next to our old friend Ted Washington in the Raiders’ return to a 4-3 base set. Veteran Bobby Hamilton starts at LDE. Tommy Kelly and free-agent pickup Derrick Burgess – who leads the team with five sacks - have split the starts at RDE. With Sapp and Mount Washington blocking out the sun in front of him, MLB Danny Clark should have ample opportunities to rack up tackles. DE/LB Tyler Brayton is a former first-round pick who defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is trying at SLB this season. Rookie Kirk Morrison, a third-round selection from San Diego State, leads the team in tackles from the other OLB spot. After trading CB Phillip Buchanon to Houston and releasing S Ray Buchanan in the offseason, Oakland used their top two draft picks on cornerbacks. Charles Woodson (and his one-year, $10.5 million contract) and Nnamdi Asomugha are listed as the starting CBs, but Woodson has seen time at safety and could eventually move there for good, with 2005 first-rounder Fabian Washington taking over at CB. Yet another former #1 pick, Derrick Gibson, is the SS; Stuart Schweigert is the normal starter at FS, but is replaced by backup CB Renaldo Hill in nickel packages. SPECIAL TEAMS: Kicker Sebastian Janikowski has already missed 4 FGs this season. (No chipshots – the missed kicks were from 43, 50, 49, and 37 yards). That’s still unusual for him; he only missed three attempts in each of the last two seasons, and he’s 78-84 (92.9%) all-time from inside 40 yards. Two-time Pro Bowl punter Shane Lechler once again leads the NFL in net average, at 40.9 yds/punt. (In fact, Lechler’s 45.9-yard gross average is now the best in NFL history, breaking the record previously held by Sammy Baugh.) Backup CB Chris Carr has taken over as the lead KR/PR; so far, he doesn’t appear to be anything special. The punt coverage team is adequate; giving up a 7.5-yard average return isn’t bad, considering how far Lechler’s kicks normally travel. The kickoff cover team is giving up 28.9 yards/return - McGee could find some room to roam, if they’re dumb enough to kick to him. Here’s something to keep an eye on: Oakland has already blocked three kicks (1 FG, 1 XP, 1 punt) this season. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK: The Buffalo coaching staff has apparently decided to make the commitment to the smash-mouth, ball-control offense Mike Mularkey talked about when he was hired; another strong showing from Willis should open up opportunities in the passing game against a Raiders defense that has only managed eight sacks and four takeaways this season. On the other side of the ball, the Buffalo defense doesn’t want to let Collins find his rhythm – get in his face early in the game, and he’ll be shaky the rest of the day. Oh, and maybe find some way to keep Jordan under 150 yards? Thanks. Oakland is certainly beatable. But West Coast trips often seem to bring out the worst in the Bills, and they didn’t exactly overwhelm anyone with their play in the first two road games. I’m hoping for a Bills victory, and the numbers would seem to lean in that direction… but with this team, I don’t count any win until the clock reads 0:00. Hey, I just realized something – for the first time in five weeks, I’ll actually be kicking back and watching the game on TV instead of at the stadium. Gotta get used to that again, because I can guarantee you Pinto Ken’s consecutive-game streak is safe from me… Go Bills! Links: NFL.com injury report NFL.com Raiders depth chart NFL.com Raiders team stats Ourlads.com – Raiders depth chart Raiders.com