Obviously, in the weeks leading up to the season, I was thinking 5-11, but I just think it is impossible (knock on wood) for us to not win at least 3 games in the first half, and like you said, I can see 4-4 easily.
Throw in only 3 truly problematic games in the second half (Tenn, Jack - hey, they are tough down there and played well against the boys, Atlanta), hope that Indie has nothing to play for, and that puts 4-5 games at least in play, in my opinion.