NORWOODS FOOT

At home in Miami FL with some cold Guinness Draughts GO BILLS!

I really can see the Bills hoisting the Lombardi this year. I feel oddly calm and accepting of any outcome, but in my minds eye I can clearly see this team as champions…

Chiefs Path to Victory: For the Chiefs to win, they”ll need Patrick Mahomes to compensate for lower statistical efficiency with explosive plays, especially outside the red zone. A turnover or special teams score could also swing the game. Bills Path to Victory: The Bills methodical and efficient style gives them the upper hand. They need to exploit the Chiefs weakness of allowing big plays in the run game. If they avoid turnovers and convert their red zone opportunities at their usual rate, they should control the game. Bills: 30 Chiefs: 27

No, but maybe I’ll check it out. This stuff isn’t fun to think about. I tune things out most of the time. I think this bothers me because I want the Bills to win a Super Bowl so badly! Youngstown was a mafia ridden shiz hole. The Debartolo (owners of the 49ers) lived there. The old man bought the team for his son Eddie who was basically a coke head. My uncle used to drink with him sometimes. A guy I worked with - who was also a cop - used to be paid to start the old man’s car each morning in case there was a bomb. Our congressman, James Trafficant, whom I met a number of times and still have a letter from his wife when he was in prison, was a shady dude and got kicked out of congress for basically sticking his finger in everyone’s eyes in Washington. Then when he got out he was doing his own news thing on the internet and was found dead in his barn. Crushed by a tractor. I could tell more stories, but I’ve basically grown up with this stuff in my face for years. It just pisses me off if these shenanigans keep my beloved Bills from a championship. I don’t want these #######s helping my team either. I just want to see a fair and real game. I want Josh to lead the Bills to glory fair and square. We shall see. Go Bills!!!

I put my response on the Off The Wall board. Thanks for having a deep and rational discussion about it. Not exactly pleasant, but somehow enjoyable. Lol

Foundational Assumption: 1) Within every group of people there is a minority subset that have insatiable greed and are willing to do nearly anything serve their own appetites. In regards to professional sports, you have (at least) 3 possibilities for influencing games: 1) League led This is the easiest. A number of years ago, a New York Jets fan tried to sue the NFL to get back the cost of his season tickets because he said that when the patriots spied on the Jets signals that it made the game unfair and that the outcome wasn’t really being determined on the field. He said he paid to see the outcome determined on the field. The courts denied his request and said that the fans are not entitled to an outcome solely settled on the field. This is “sports ENTERTAINMENT” and this is a “PRESENTATION of the national football league.” Essentially the courts, via a ruling (which creates case law) gave the league legal permission to manipulate outcomes. The NFL makes tons of money off of it, so-called superstars, especially quarterbacks. And there’s nothing that make quarterbacks cooler than winning the Super Bowl and becoming so-called legends. And if you’re already dealing with the leagues, best quarterback, they don’t need a lot of help to win games. All you have to do is extend a couple of their drives via penalty. Or gum up another teams drive with penalties lowering the probability that they’re going to get first down and be able to extend it. How would you know if this is happening? If the leagues, most marketable player keeps getting their drives extended in the playoffs, and the other team gets their drives, slowed down by suspect calls, and it happens at a ratio that rules out randomness, then there’s probably something going on. And not many people would need to know. We have entire teams of people in the United States clandestinely going to other nations to do completely off the books operations. You never hear about these things. It wouldn’t be very difficult for five or 10 people in the NFL to be doing the very same thing and just simply not tell anyone. Beyond that everybody has to sign NDA and would be sued into oblivion. 2) Organized crime History is replete with examples, but let’s consider organized crime - I grew up in Youngstown Ohio, a place run by the mob. It is merely a group of people that decide to operate outside of the bounds of the law because they see an easier path to greater wealth. They go where the money is flowing in legit enterprises and attempt to “get in on the action.” They either demand with threats to let them into the game directly, or they demand that a cut be paid. They sweeten the deal by promising to make their insiders/co-conspirators wealthy. And if they have dirt on you, all the better: either work with us and get rich, or get outed and have your life destroyed. It’s not easy to find an insider in the right position (game officials), but if you can and swing them, it isn’t that complicated. An NBA ref was caught working with the mob a number of years ago. When the lead FBI agent on the case was asked if this was an isolated incident, he said absolutely not, and was then cut off by the interviewer. I went to the same university as Dennis Hastert, the former speaker of the house. It turns out that he used to take boys to a townhouse in Chicago and do bad things to them there. Not only is that a moral outrage because you’re destroying someone’s life, but the implications of that are even greater. in a conversation with someone that works in national security they said it’s even worse because you don’t know who else is tapping that house. China could be listening in and using it for blackmail. Or anyone else for that matter. There were people around the world, watching people in positions of power to look for opportunities to blackmail them either do what the blackmail wants, and often made rich because of it, or they get exposed and have their life ruined, almost that the refs in the umpires of the NFL have had people try to hack into their computers to look for incriminating things whether they know it or not. There’s just too much money to be made by having one of those guys in your pocket . 3) Rogue individuals (players/coaches) This one is pretty self-explanatory. Throughout history, we have plenty of examples of players trying to throw games because either they or someone that they know bet heavily on the game. In Summation: Betting has always made it, tempting to influence the outcomes of sports games. Legalized gambling has made it even more tempting because the amounts of money flowing, and the ease of placing bets, is more than ever before. And unfortunately, this happens all the time. Did any of you watch the Jake Paul / Mike Tyson “fight”? You could play bets on that before the opening bell. And I dare anyone to watch that and tell me that it tell me that it wasn’t scripted. Mike Tyson was completely washed up, and Jake Paul barely punched him. so if you bet on that fight, you were betting on which outcome those guys chose for that event. Why should the NFL be any different? I wish that it was, but to me, there’s just too much evidence of nudging games, one way or another. All I hope for when I watch games is to see if as a little of that as possible if any. But now we’re in the playoffs and major money is flowing It’s extremely tempting for those who have the power, not the tilt the table their own direction. If I had to guess, I believe that the league does sometimes try to influence games for the most monetary gain. I believe that organized crime also tries to influence games when possible, though that may be more sporadic. And lastly, I have no doubt that in any given game there COULD be a player trying to shave points, especially in basketball. BONUS: How bribes are paid I’ll give you a little vignette so you can see how bribes are paid legally and easily in this world… Imagine you’re a contractor and I’m a city commissioner and you’re trying to get a contract for some work you want to do for the city. You come and meet me in my office and after we’re done talking, I tell you, “ Yeah, I’d like to work with you. But before we kick things off, you need to make sure you have great legal representation. You’re gonna need somebody to look over your contract and help you cross the Ts and dot the I’s. I highly recommend that you go talk to Lawyer X. He’s the best in the business.” So you show up to Lawyer X’s office and discuss the potential deal. And he lets you know that he’ll help you put it together but you’re gonna need to keep him on retainer by paying him $10,000 a month. But the contracts for $150,000 a month so what the hell? What you don’t know is that the lawyer is a business partner with the city commissioner. He’s going to “invest” that money in a joint venture they have together. And not only that, but the conversation that you just had with him is protected by attorney client privilege, so he never hast to tell a soul. PS I could tell you a story about speaking to a high-level mobster years ago, and hearing about his connection to someone that eventually became president, but you probably wouldn’t believe me. But yeah, I’m a little cynical about people, money, and power. The world is a messy place.

You asked fair questions and I will take the time later today to give you a more extensive answer. I’ll put it on the “Off The Wall” page and let you know. The short of it is that where there is an opportunity to make yourself wealthy by exploiting an unfair advantage you get plenty of intelligent and ruthless people trying to do just that. The NFL churns huge amounts of money and is directly in the crosshairs of such people. It’s a huge challenge for the league.

I’m NOT arguing that there is a “huge conspiracy” for the Chiefs to win. Here is what I am arguing: to help raise the Chiefs probability of winning it would take ONE person. This isn’t hard to understand nor is it unreasonable when human greed is factored into the equation. But no, the land of pro sports and sports betting is the one place in human society where human greed plays no role. Aren’t we lucky.

You’re not alone: most people aren’t into statistics, inferences, and probabilities.

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/chiefs-referee-playoffs-penalties-2024-divisional-round/ Worth the read. Long story short: in the playoffs the Chiefs have a HUGE advantage over their opponents regarding penalties and yardage. Maybe it’s just a small sample size. Maybe the NFL is the WWE (motivated by betting). Either way, this is a huge storyline and something the Bills are going to have to overcome to become champions. GO BILLS! (Update: Sorry guys, didn’t see this thread before posting)

Wish I could! Glad you will be there to represent! Im so ready to back to Arrowhead and exorcise the demons. No hope. No fear. Bring it! GO BILLS!!!!!!

I agree. He is super talented and has a great attitude. It’s crazy, each year he has been overshadowed by JSN, MHjr and now Smith: but he’s been content and has put up great career numbers. He would fit in beautifully here.

A shame. The man should’ve stuck around. But congrats to Ryan! This sweetens is a bitter day.

Well, there it is buddy! One down and one to go! Enjoy that drink! Go Bucks! Go Bills!

I was on shore leave many years ago and I met this beautiful girl named Vicki…

Hope we find his replacement this offseason

Yes, the primo move was a (successful) challenge and a tush push.

Yes! A “pop pass” like Tebow used to do in college! (forgot to quote. This is @Ethan)

Yes, I feel very confident. If our key players are healthy and if we don’t implode with stupid errors, I think we have as good a shot as ever. We just seem to have a momentum right now, coupled with a high level confidence. I haven’t felt this good about our team since ‘91-‘94. We shall see…

Upon further reflection, I think McDermott showed some growth and made a great situational call to run Josh from the shotgun on 3rd and Goal at the end of the game. Here’s why: 1) 4th Down was going to be a FG attempt no matter what because you go up +8 there and not give the ball back to an offense that was having success only up +5. 2) Don’t pass: you have 3 possible outcomes (TD, incompletion, interception) and 2/3 are bad because either the clock stops or there is a turnover. 3) Tush Push was unlikely to get us 2 whole yards. 4) Keep the ball in Josh’s hands and give him the chance to catch the Ravens off guard and look for a hole. My only qualm is that MAYBE he should have challenged the spot. But other than that I feel like McDermott made the best possible call in a critical moment, and that looks like growth to me. I have lamented on this message board a number of times that the Bills are always “good but not great”, especially McDermott. But seeing him make what I think was the best call tonight in a pressure cooker gives me a bit of hope that he is growing. Can’t wait to test that hypothesis with two more games! Go Bills!

Right?! You watch Josh enough and you can read his expressions and body language. Kinda funny.

Got it. I don’t bet so I don’t know if things have changed. But yeah, maybe Vegas sees this as even. Wonder which way the bettors will push the line this week???

I hated the 3rd Down run as well. That said, the Ravens scored a TD from 88 yards out. I think McD was kicking no matter what on 4th. Tried to catch them off guard

Gonna eat those points for dinner! Go Bills! No, Chiefs have to win by over 1.5 points to cover

I like Bishop. Hope our boy is ready!