I'm not sure if this had been posted or not, but from today's NY Times NFL column 'N.F.L Fast Forward':
When to Defer?
The latest strategy wrinkle for coaches to obsess over is whether to defer when they win the coin toss. College coaches have long had the choice — and they defer the decision whether to kick off or receive until the second half 90 percent of the time, by some estimates — but the rule came to the N.F.L. this spring and has sent coaches scurrying for research to inform their decisions. Before the rule change, N.F.L. coaches almost always elected to receive the ball if they won the toss. Buffalo Bills Coach Dick Jauron won the toss three of the first four weeks, and has deferred twice, electing to receive the kickoff only in the season opener at home. Jauron’s rationale made sense: he wasn’t sure if fans were up to speed on deferring and he wanted to whip up the crowd early.
The reasons for deferring are myriad. If the weather is bad early in a game, but is expected to clear later, a team might defer to get the ball when conditions are better. Or if a team wants to set a tone early with a stellar defense, they could defer. But coaches mostly defer because they have a better lay of the land by the second half.
“Generally, I think that deferring is probably the thing to do because you’ll have a better idea of what’s going on as you start the second half,” Jauron said last week in Buffalo.
The Bills gave the rest of the league a clinic Sunday in why more coaches should consider it.
The Bills deferred, allowing their stellar defense to stop the woeful Rams on their first possession. The Bills were trailing when they received the kickoff to open the second half. The Bills drove for a touchdown on that opening drive of the second half, closing the Rams’ lead to one point. It also worked for the Bears, who deferred to put their powerful defense on the field first against the Eagles on Sunday night. They stopped the Eagles on three downs on the opening drive.
N.F.L. coaches might need more convincing. In the 12 games played Sunday, just four teams that won the opening kickoff opted to defer.