An inverted yield curve is one of the largest indicators of an upcoming recession. Every recession has been preceded by an inverted yield curve, but there have been a few times the yield curve has gone negative and reverted back without a recession, so it doesn't guarantee it will happen. The 2/10 spread has been inverted for well over two years now. I think it might even chart the longest and deepest negative trend we have had. It has snapped back in the other direction very quickly over the past few weeks. That is not a good sign of things to come.