RoscoeParrish

They couldn’t score enough and couldn’t get stops because their defense wasn’t healthy enough. It wasn’t because they didn’t spend enough first round picks on linebackers and running backs imo.

100%. A contested 3 pt shot who is taking 8 a game is going to be less efficient than a wide open shooter taking 2 a game (unless you are Steph Curry). A receiver who gets fed the ball and is the focal point, and gets designed plays behind the LOS is going to be less efficient on a yards per target basis than a fourth option who gets 2-3 targets a game. I think you guys are conflating “less efficient” with “bad.” That’s not what I’m trying to say. For Khalil Shakir to remain #1 on yards per target in the NFL and get many more targets than previously would basically make him the best WR in the NFL. It was unrealistic to expect that number to remain on top of the charts. And so far, that is proving correct, as he has now dropped to 13th, which is still VERY EFFICIENT AND EXCELLENT, but less efficient than 2023.

Josh is performing at an elite level. A clear level above basically every other QB in the NFL. He leads the league in passer rating, QBR, ANY/A. Any advanced statistic has him sitting far in the top right of any graph. FWIW, James Cook is the 10th RB in yards from scrimmage and tied for 2nd in TD’s.

there can be lots of reasons that his efficiency has dropped. It can be due to increased volume, it can be due to shorter passes or offensive role. But the fact remains the efficiency of Shakir last year to this year has dropped. Do you believe there is no way to evaluate WR efficiency in the NFL? That’s a different discussion unfortunately. The poster I was responding to directly stated “Shakir’s efficiency.” I used the best metrics we have available to measure that.

A good offense? With Josh Allen at QB? No, you don’t need elite weapons. To win a SB? I think you do.

So yards passed per game is a volume stat. if you don’t pass a lot, you won’t have a lot of yards. YPC and yards per target doesn’t care if you had one catch or 10 catches. Thats why it’s an efficiency stat. Shakir’s efficiency was extraordinary last year on low volume. His volume has gone up and his efficiency has dropped a bit, but is still excellent. I really don’t agree with your description of “myopic” or analogy at all, it doesn’t make sense to me.

For what it’s worth, Shakir’s efficiency has dropped. He went from ~16 YPC to 12. he was #1 in the NFL in 2023 in yards per target. He’s down to 13th which is still quite excellent. IMO, increased target share almost always decreases efficiency. It’s sort of like basketball. Some guys can shoot 40% from 3 when they take 2-3 shots per game. When they start taking eight 3’s a game, most players drop into the 30s. Shakir has done very well with his numbers and continues to get better, but a decrease in efficiency doesn’t necessarily make him a worse player. Jmo.

I don’t think the economy of the NFL in regards to drafts and positional spending is mumbo jumbo at all. And really, we saw that with the Lions themselves. They lost the AFCCG because they had a porous defense, so much so that a 24-7 lead at half time evaporated. It’s a fun thing to talk about because there can certainly be differences of opinion, but NFL contracts are clear. QB, WR, CB, EDGE, OT >>>> RB, off-ball LB all things being equal.

I think it’s injury. If he’s rendered ineffective because of a lingering foot injury, that brings the WR number to 4. That’s a razor thing margin for a season. Jmo.

Honestly, depending on how they feel about Samuel’s injury. He’s someone I thought would see a lot of production/opportunity, and he’s kinda been MIA, maybe because of that lingering foot. hopefully Keon stays healthy, but he wouldn’t be the first rookie to get worn down from a health standpoint by the end of the season.

Has it? Gibbs is a nice running back, but he’s no better than James Cook, who was drafted the year prior at the end of the second round. Campbell is a fine thumper but currently is allowing a perfect passer rating (158.3) when targeted in coverage this season, after allowing 128 as a rookie. I think both picks were reaches from a positional value standpoint. Maybe Gibbs and Campbell are 10+ year stars for the Lions, but more likely both are off the team after their rookie deals, imo.

I think they have a very popular process, similar to the Eagles. They are constantly among the leagues best when the it comes to the comp pick formula. They very rarely make short term moves and usually have a pretty healthy cap situation. All while being pretty competitive in the AFC. All the teams have personal warts, it’s just what you value more. Because no one is perfect. You can argue the Ravens stink at getting WR talent around Lamar, especially because they try and fail constantly. You can argue the Eagles spending a pretty penny on Barkley is bad team management. You can argue the Niners whiffed on too many 1st round DL picks. You can argue the Chiefs have also thrown away assets on bad WR’s and threw away a lot of cap on crappy OT’s.

This may be unpopular but I’m not up in arms about this ranking. I do think the top 4 are correct and then I think there is very little gap between 5-9. I would probably put Beane and co closer to 6 than 9. It’s hard to argue results but imo the most of the top 4 consistently have SB appearances and really talented rosters. I like what the Lions have done generally but going LB and RB high in the draft hurts them for me. Packers and Rams are in the mix as well. The Packers navigated the departure of a franchise HoF QB about as perfectly as you can hope, and they have had pretty good draft success. The Rams went all-in with great success and when Stafford is healthy have still continued to be pretty competitive despite massive talent injuries.

Naaman Roosevelt. Canisius

I don’t know if receiver by committee will be a thing, but I do know the FA market is due for a slight course correction. CB was kind of similar in the past. Josh Norman was the highest paid CB in the league in 2017. He was making $16M AAV. CB’s were exploding in price tags. The Bills as we all remember, let Gilmore walk and he was making $13M as the second highest. Notably, at the same time, Hopkins was the highest paid WR, also making $16M AAV. Today, there are FIVE WR’s making almost DOUBLE Hopkins’ AAV ($30M). There are 27 WR’s making more than his contract. Contrast that to CB, whose market has cooled considerably. Norman’s record breaking contract would be ranked 12th among CB’s today. There are two active contracts $8M more than Norman’s and the rest are only 4-5M more. Rules favor offense, so I don’t believe that the gap between CB and WR contracts will ever equal out again, but I also believe that teams collectively will realize the market has gone too far.

Early returns have been promising. its a long season though. Remember, after week 4 last year, the Bills were 3-1 and put up wins with 37, 38 and 48 points. Now, just like then, there’s a lot to like, but there’s even more we are yet to see. The true test for an offense is midseason on, when teams have a lot of tape and tendencies to go off of. It’s clear to me that we don’t have anyone who can be schemed against and win anyway (but then again, we didn’t have that last year). It’s all up to Brady. Dorsey got sunk because he got figured out every year.

EASY Tanner Gentry. USC

That’s true, but they let Ward walk because they had Sneed and let Sneed walk because they had McDuffie. Just like the Bills prepared to move on from Tre when they drafted Elam and Benford. If McDuffie was a bust, I think Sneed is still in KC personally.

Kickers are not worth a first round pick. Kickers may be close to running back value. Would you rather have a below average K and an average running back? Or a below average running back and an average K?

I believe we already did the “Tyreek made Mahomes” saga and he won 2 Super Bowls after losing him. But of course, he still did have Kelce playing at an elite HoF level. Boy it would be nice for Mahomes to struggle and get blasted in the WC.

Yards is an imperfect measure. That being said, there is one Bill with >100 receiving yards on the season. That would be Khalil Shakir, who ranks 29th in receiving yards so far. The next highest Bills WR is Coleman, who ranks 111th. Now, there’s certainly an opportunity relation to yards. Mediocre WR’s can rack up yards with high target volume. But that’s something to point to as this WR group might be closer to below average than good. I actually think it’s a total credit to Allen, who is playing the best ball of his career, Joe Brady who I think has done about as good of a job you could hope when it comes to scheme, and the other guys, like Cook, who are carrying a larger offensive load that the offense has been humming. And really that’s what matters. If the WR’s don’t put up mega numbers and the Bills offense just clicks all year and in the postseason, this is all a lot of hubbub about nothing. But while I have been pretty pleasantly surprised with Josh and Brady so far, there is a tiny voice in my head waiting for the other shoe to drop and a good defensive team daring Mack and MVS to beat them.

Singletary is like the classic dime a dozen RB. A fine player but hopping around looking for a sucker team to overpay. Good for him.

I don’t think Brady is one and done. That’s pretty rare. Brian Daboll was credited with turning Josh into a franchise QB from a raw prospect. He was the OC for the Bills during 3 separate playoff runs, including a trip to the AFCCG. Josh played like an MVP for two full seasons before Daboll left. Bobby Slowik had a great year with Stroud, but he didn’t go anywhere. Ben Johnson has been in Detroit for a few years and while he has had offers, he’s still with the Lions. For whatever reason, most NFL teams don’t hand the keys to one year OC’s. We have two years with Brady, imo.

Haason Reddick played EDGE for Philly for the last two years. He was coming off FOUR straight years of double digit sacks and was looking for a new contract. Rather than paying him at 30 years old, the Eagles traded him to the Jets for a conditional third round pick. Bryce Huff was a departing Jet who signed with the Eagles for a 3 year $51M, coming off a double digit sack season. On its face, it appeared like the Eagles got the younger player and the pick, for less money, and assumed some risk of Huff continuing to build off his productive 4th season (Huff had 7.5 sacks over his first 3 seasons). The Jets got the older, more productive player, with arguably less of a football future, which was right in line with their all in with Rodgers timeline. Fast forward to today. Huff has one tackle on the year. The Eagles defense is a complete mess. On the Jets side of things, Reddick hasn’t even appeared in a game yet amidst contract disputes. It’s still early. But the early returns have this appearing to be a player swap/trade that will end up being a failure for both teams.

The Killers is a vibe and this song is just as big of a wedding song as Shout nowadays.