beebe

why out of curiosity?

obviously the bills should go all in this year. but if we're being honest, there probably isn't a worse year in the history of the entire NFL to go all in than this year. the bills, dolphins, jets, jags, bengals, browns, ravens, chiefs, chargers are all extremely good teams. the raiders, broncos, patriots, steelers are nothing to sneeze at. the only truly bad teams in the afc is the non-jags nfc south teams. any team that doesn't get the 1-seed will have to go through some combo of the above teams. how can any team feel very good about their chances to get through that gauntlet, let alone also win the super bowl? the nfc is a complete cakewalk by comparison.

the chiefs are definitely up to something. but who knows what. they cleared some cap space last week. they let juju walk, which was a fairly surprising move, especially considering what juju got from the pats. then they let hardman walk. not a huge surprise, but given what he got paid, you'd think a WR needy team like the chiefs would have kept him at that cost if they wanted him. As it stands, they have Toney, MVS, Skyy Moore and basically nobody else. That's a poverty wide receiving corps. Their likely 1st round draft pick is at tackle. Something doesn't seem right here.

it could mean nothing. or it could mean everything. what is mahomes up to? (deleted tweet)

Beane can't let Hopkins go to the Chiefs. It's as simple as that. Even if it's an overpay, even if borrowing against the future, you can't let him get to KC.

We all know it's gonna be Hopkins. Don't we? 😃

Frank Clark would be a loss. The Chiefs can absolutely get better left tackle play than Orlando Brown. The most unworthy Pro Bowl pick in recent memory. KC's offensive tackles didn't have a banner year (though Wylie will get work somewhere moving forward and did improve).

Since realignment in 2002, there's been 109 coaches hired. 54 of them have NEVER made the playoffs. Of the 55 that have made the playoffs, only 38 of them have won a playoff game. Only 16 of those who have made the playoffs have a winning playoff record. Doug Marrone (2-1) is one of the 16 coaches. Rex Ryan (4-2) is another. Only eight of the 109 have won a Super Bowl. Most coaches are failures. Two coaches who aren't failures: Bill Belichick and Andy Reid. They've won eight of the last 20 Super Bowls. One coach is in Buffalo's division - and dominated with the greatest QB of all time. The other is in their conference - and is dominating with arguably the second greatest QB of all time. Let's stop acting like this is easy.

They said this about Bill Cowher. They said this about Tony Dungy. They said this about Tom Coughlin. They said it about these guys all at the exact same time! Then Cowher broke through in 2005. Dungy broke through in 2006. Coughlin broke through in 2007. Then they moved on to Andy Reid. And now Andy has broken through twice. The guys who experience super early success in getting their Super Bowl ring — the Sean McVays, the Mike McCarthys, the Doug Pedersons, the Sean Paytons — those guys are the outliers. The rest of the coaching world is subject to dealing with the odds, which are NEVER in their favor, bad variance and bad luck.

Josh Allen's talent is not in dispute. But he's not the "generational" quarterback you think he is. Mahomes has outplayed him statistically every single season. Burrow has been a more consistent QB the last few years. Allen is obviously a great QB. But he's still error prone and has plenty of holes in his game that need work (mainly the turnovers). the AFC QB tiers are: Tier 1 Mahomes (maybe the greatest QB ever) Tier 2 Burrow Allen Tier 3 Herbert Watson Lawrence Tua Lamar It's not crazy to think a few of the names in Tier 3 can advance to Tier 2 with continued imrpovement, a better supporting cast, or in the case of Lamar and Tua, better health. Even aside from all that, the reason Josh Allen/Bills haven't broken through yet is because: 2018 - josh allen stunk, the bills weren't good 2019 - josh allen improved, but the bills were merely an above average team 2020 - they ran into a superior Chiefs team led by a better QB, got outplayed badly in afc title game 2021 - they lost to an inferior Chiefs team due to bad luck, coaching meltdown 2022 - they lost to an equal-ish Bengals team, but Bills never reached full potential due to bad health

some perspective: going back 15+ years, the biggest super bowl favorite preseason has been 5-1 odds. the 2018 Patriots, 2015 Seahawks, 2014 Seahawks, 2014 Broncos were all 5-1 to win the Super Bowl. that's a 20% chance. the chiefs are preseason favorites in 2023. they're 6-1 (16% chance). in the end, good fortune, health and luck plays a monster role!

My general take: The Bills have built their best rosters (2020-2023) at the absolute worst possible time. The rise of the Chiefs, combined with the AFC turning into a super conference, has coincided with Buffalo's return to relevance. This year, 11 of the top 16 teams in the league are likely to be in the AFC. Eight of the 10 best QBs are in the AFC (especially if Rodgers ends up with the Jets or Raiders.) And the Bills, as of now, are projected to play 12 games against Vegas's 15 best projected teams. That includes games vs both Super Bowl participants (Chiefs and Eagles) and the AFC runner up (Bengals). The Bills can do everything right this year, and yet the path to winning the AFC in 2023 will likely involve beating three of the following in the playoffs: Tua/Dolphins Herbert/Chargers Burrow/Bengals Lamar/Ravens Mahomes/Chiefs Watson/Browns Rodgers/Jets or Raiders Lawrence/Jaguars It's a potential playoff gauntlet unlike anything we've ever seen, whether you're the best team or the third best team. No team in the AFC — not even the Chiefs — would have better than a 1-in-3 chance at winning three straight games against the above teams in the playoffs. With all that being said, what is the best path for 2023 and beyond? Option 1 Build the best roster possible this offseason. Sign key veterans to replace possible departures (ie Poyer, Edmunds), beef up the lines on both sides of the ball, sign a veteran WR and draft another, and basically just go as hard at winning the SB as possible. Upside: The Bills give themselves the best chance to win this year with a team/roster that is no worse than third best in the AFC. Downside: If the Bills don't win it all, the cap situation in the near-term will be manageable but not great; if free agents/veterans are signed to short-term deals and see significant time, the Bills probably aren't getting younger/developing depth for future years. Basically: The next offseason will feel a lot like the last three offseasons. Option 2 Copy the Chiefs' approach and turn this into a cap reset/get younger year, but still field a team that is likely to be top 5 in the AFC at worst. Make the bold move of trading Diggs in exchange for major draft capital, try to crush the draft, and beef up the rest of the roster (ie fix the OL) with the savings. Upside: Josh Allen does more with less, just like Mahomes did in 2022, and the Bills offense still performs at a high level even with Diggs' departure. The Bills run the ball better behind an improved OL, a rookie WR emerges, Shakir takes a step forward, and a few Bills rookies get significant snaps and carve out starting spots on defense. The Bills make the playoffs and give themselves a chance at advancing to the Super Bowl, just like the last three years. The cap situation opens up a bit in 2024 and there's likely an extra draft pick or two as well from the Diggs trade. Downside: The Bills worsen their chances at winning the Super Bowl, and if the draft goes poorly, the roster suddenly won't look very good (which includes a below avg wide receiver room.)

Dismantle the Chiefs? The Bills literally created the Chiefs. It turned out to be a solid deal for both parties, but if Mahomes goes on to be a top-3 all time QB (or even the best ever), that trade probably becomes the most famous/consequential draft day trade of all time, passing even the Herschel Walker trade.

when players are complimentary of each other and don't talk smack, people gripe and say there's no rivalries anymore and everybody treats each other like it's glee club. then when a player talks some trash, even if it's good natured, people rip the player and try to shame him back into P.R. mode. sports are more interesting when the players can be themselves. they're athletes, not lawmakers.

the solution to penalties is to accept that officiating is and always has been imperfect and some games are going to be far more difficult to call than others. i guarantee there's far more bias in the way fans interpret calls than there is intentional bias by the officials throwing the flags. anyone without a rooting interest in the Super Bowl wanted a great game above all else. throwing the flag on the Eagles DB took an epic finish away from us. we felt robbed! and yet, the involved player admitted it was correct. it probably was correct. and had there been no flag, rest assured chiefs fans would have cut up every replay angle - slow motion and otherwise - and blamed carl cheffers for screwing them yet again. (remember, cheffers went into this game as KC's Public Enemy #1. now he suddenly is on KC's side? come on.) again, accept that officiating is really hard and that mistakes are inevitable. umpires call balls/strikes correct about 93.5% of the time. balls and strikes! they're planted perfectly behind home plate, completely stationary, and have a picture perfect view of the pitch. and yet they're wrong 14 times per game on average — or about 1.6 times per inning. on balls and strikes! there are about 150 plays in a typical NFL game (including special teams). in games that are widely described as poorly officiated, we're usually talking about a handful of calls, or about 3% of the overall plays. some of those mistakes can be cleaned up using instant replay — and are — and sometimes even instant replay is inconclusive and people will disagree on the proper call. again, it's an imperfect game, with imperfect officials. if you want to reduce bad ref variance, play better. you get 60 minutes and 150 plays to make sure one bad call doesn't decide the outcome.

if we accept that it's a myth - then it's a myth for a 12-min halftime that we see in regular season and playoffs. but for the super bowl, you get a full 30 minutes. that's an eternity. there's time for bathroom, cleat changing, new tape jobs, and for coaches to not only get together but articulate the plan/needed changes in approach to the team. regardless, there's always adjustments being made. in a typical game, if the opponent is on a 12-play, 8 minute drive, then your team's offense probably has about 15+ minutes in real time to get together on the sideline and make necessary changes. sideline adjustments are likely better/more impactful than locker room adjustments.

1993-2017.

The Chiefs identify their biggest flaw and go all in on fixing it. 2016 Alex Smith leads Chiefs to playoffs for third time in four years but they lose to Steelers in playoffs as offense does nothing. Offseason fix: Draft future franchise QB Mahomes. 2017 Alex Smith leads Chiefs to playoffs again, Chiefs offense sputters in 2nd half in another loss. Offseason fix: Trade away Smith, insert Mahomes as starting QB. 2018 Mahomes tears it up his rookie season, wins MVP, leads Chiefs to within an OT of Super Bowl, but brutal defense couldn't get a stop and they lose to Pats. Offseason fix: Fire defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, replace him with Steve Spagnuolo; add veteran defenders Mathieu, Frank Clark. 2019 Chiefs win Super Bowl. Offseason fix: Nothing to fix. KC tried to bring back everybody from Super Bowl team and pretty much did that. 2020 Chiefs advance to Super Bowl, but lose to Bucs as banged-up OL gets dominated by Bucs. Offseason fix: Fix the O-Line. Chiefs trade for Orlando Brown, sign Joe Thuney, draft eventual starters Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. 2021 Chiefs nearly advance to third straight Super Bowl but blow 18-pt lead in home OT loss to Bengals in AFC title game. Offseason fix: Once again, there wasn't much to fix, but KC realized they couldn't upgrade their defensive roster without freeing up cap space; ultimately decided to let DB's Ward and Mathieu walk and traded away Tyreek Hill for picks. 2022 Chiefs win second Super Bowl in four years, helped by eight rookies who all saw significant time, especially on defense; and they were able to reset their cap and get future draft capital to help them build out the future roster. Offseason fix: Nothing to fix. Spend money to supply Mahomes with more weapons and continue adding depth to roster through the draft.

Seifert went 98-30 across eight seasons and didn't finish worse than 10-6 in San Francisco. Then he had a poor Carolina roster, went 15-17 then flamed out with a 1-15 disaster. He's probably an above average coach on the whole. Pederson is probably above average. Way too soon to be called great.

Pederson has won more than nine games in a season exactly once in six years and is 51-45 overall. He was so highly regarded by his previous organization that he was fired and promptly replaced by a guy who has made the playoffs both times and just made a Super Bowl with a 14-3 record. I obviously give Pederson credit for winning a Super Bowl. But to me he's probably closer to being George Seifert, Brian Billick, Gary Kubiak or Mike McCarthy — all one-time Super Bowl winners — than he is to being the next Andy Reid. McDermott has taken five of six teams to the playoffs and has won 10 games, 13 games, 11 games and 13 games the last four years on his way to a 62-35 overall record. Pederson can coach the next 10 years in Jacksonville and I'll make him an underdog to put together the four-year run that McDermott just had. Yes, McDermott has been a postseason failure. But so was Dungy. So was Cowher. So was Reid. The Chiefs overlooked Reid's playoff failures because they thought he was a great coach who had been unlucky. I suspect McDermott is a very good coach who has been unlucky.

There's McDaniel, as in the Dolphins' Mike McDaniel, who I ranked #13; and McDaniels, as in the Raiders' Josh McDaniels, who I ranked 32nd.

TIER 1 - The clear best coaches in the league. 1. Belichick 2. Reid TIER 2 - Super Bowl champions who have had sustained success across 10+ years with the same team. 3. Carroll 4. Tomlin 5. Payton 6. Harbaugh TIER 3 - Coaches who are clearly very good but don't have the same long-term track record as the guys above them on this list 7. Shanahan 8. Vrabel 9. McVay 10. McDermott 11. Pederson TIER 4 - Coaches who are likely very good but don't have the same short-term track record as TIER 3 guys 12. Daboll 13. McDaniel 14. Taylor 15. Sirianni TIER 5 - League average coaches; with an average team, I think they'd lead them to a .500 record. 16. LaFleur 17. Reich 18. Rivera 19. McCarthy TIER 6 - Not sure, larger sample needed 20. Stefanski 21. O'Connell 22. Campbell 23. Saleh 24. Ryans 25. Eberflus TIER 7 - Open vacancy coaches 26. Vacant 27. Vacant TIER 8 - I've seen enough 28. Staley 29. Smith 30. Bowles 31. Allen 32. McDaniels

the bills approach the regular season very differently than KC. the chiefs are very willing to throw rookies into the fire if it means they'll be better in january than going all in with veterans in september/october. i do think the bills (when fully healthy) had a better overall roster than the chiefs this year. but that was largely due to having such a veteran defense (led by guys like poyer, hyde, miller) whereas the chiefs were giving big playing time to a collection of six or seven rookies. going forward, that changes a bit. the chiefs' rookies will take another step next year and they'll be able to pursue some quality free agents, on top of having another dozen draft picks (of which they will hope to hit on 4-5 of them); whereas the bills are likely to say goodbye to a few key veterans and perhaps won't have a ton of wiggle room to replace them.

the 2022 chiefs is the worst chiefs team of the next three years. the bills need to give strong consideration to trading diggs. i know it sounds crazy, and probably is crazy, but i'm very skeptical of them being able to build a good enough roster to overtake the chiefs given the current roster/cap/pick situation of both teams.