Einstein

These are some stats that @HoofHearted and I have been playing with via private message since the Patriots loss on Sunday. Bills offense 11 personnel vs 12 personnel Passing 11 Personnel: 132/148 for 849 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT, 5 Sacks, 5.4 A/DYPA 12 Personnel: 66/91 for 754 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT, 4 Sacks 8.3 A/DYPA Rushing 11 Personnel: 94 attempts for 457 yards, 4.86 YPC, 6 TD, 1 Fumble, 31 first downs, 11 attempts inside the 5 yard line. 12 Personnel: 57 attempts for 186 yards, 3.26 YPC, 1 TD, 2 Fumble, 10 first downs, 3 attempts inside the 5 yard line. How does play-action affect passing performance? 11 Personnel with p/a: 20/26 for 144 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 7.86 A/NYPA 11 Personnel withOUT p/a: 69/106 for 705 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT, 4.86 A/NYPA 12 Personnel with p/a: 23/32 for 397 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 12.42 A/NYPA 12 Personnel withOUT p/a: 43/59 for 357 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 6.03 A/NYPA Rushing performance by blocking scheme Totality Zone: 61 attempts for 218 yards, 3.57 ypc, 2 TD. Man: 90 attempts for 448 yards, 4.98 ypc, 3 TD. Under Center Zone: 27 attempts for 92 yards, 3.41 ypc, 0 TD. Man: 37 attempts for 242 yards, 6.54 ypc, 1 TD. Shotgun Zone: 33 attempts for 128 yards, 3.88 ypc, 2 TD. Man: 53 attempts for 206 yards, 3.89 ypc, 2 TD. Other notes and observations 1) The Patriots had a clear gameplan as Mac Jones got rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds on 72.7% of his dropbacks. 2) I see a lot of people claiming there were open receivers everywhere during the Patriots game and Allen simply wasn't seeing them. Were there some? Sure. Was it rampant? I very much disagree. I think that narrative was overblown and didn't take into account the nuance of the read progression and pressure. I have a feeling that these people are counting plays like the one below, which, sure, technically these players aren't covered - but what exactly do you want Allen to do here? He is about get wacked by multiple Patriots defensive players, and he has 3 receivers all within 5 yards of each other (tipped pass nightmare scenario). Maybe side arm a pass to the left crosser? I absolutely hate the spacing we have shown all year. I know what Dorseys play is attempting to do here, but you need time to do it. The below image is another example. Yes, there are receivers open. However, Allen has to deal with a free rusher (literally not a single linemen sees him) and therefore can't keep his eyes downfield. So yes, technically open receivers, but the QB has to get out of dodge. Another example below. Diggs JUST became open as he passed the LB level. The problem? Allen is being wrecked by a DT at the same time. Some will say Allen should be throwing with anticipation, but that is a very difficult throw - in-between and over the top of the defender? Third down separation. And yeah, I could find several plays where guys were open and Allen didn't go through his progressions fast enough. But the point is that there is nuance to these conversations. Many plays where receivers were "open" were in reality a situation where Allen had to take his eyes off of downfield due to a rusher. Other times, Allen got rid of the ball quickly because on the previous play, he got smacked by a free rusher. The whole pie matters. 3) Very rare to say this, but Taron Johnson played very poorly. He was responsible for the Patriots final two TD's, he had very poor leverage for the slant on both 2nd and 3rd down with seconds to go in the game, and he didn't get anywhere near his WR on the Patriots TD that put them ahead with 7 minutes left. Part of this is scheme and how our defensive backs were (I assume) taught to play the trips set that NE had on the field. 4) Poyer had a really slow start to the season but he has been playing much better over the previous 3 games. .

I’ll believe it when I see him miss a game.

Yeah I think this is likely true.

“Maybe I’ve got to be more upbeat and be a voice a little bit more loud — let my emotions show a little more,” Yes Josh.

You forgot Mahomes 4th turnover against the Jets that was taken away by a phantom defensive PI call.

Thank you sir.

This is incredibly disappointing to me. I'm not sure how this wasn't a bigger deal at the time. Your QB stating that they are not big into film... unacceptable. And unacceptable on the coaches for allowing it too.

Wow, I completely missed that. Do you remember when that happened? I want to find it and watch it. That's wild.

Brandon Beane has drafted 43 players not named Josh Allen. -> 2 of the 43 have been selected to a Pro Bowl. -> 1 of those 2 is no longer on the team (Edmunds). The other is Knox. -> 0 have been All-Pro's. I say use the draft picks.

How is that any more verifiable than McD neutering him?

We punted more in the Dolphins game than we did against the Patriots. A major difference in the Dolphins game was turnovers. By the DEFENSE. The defense forced a turnover on 5 of the last 7 Dolphins drives. An interception, a fumble, and three turnovers on downs.

Well that's definitely true. It's just a guess. But I think it is as good a guess as "Josh Allen just woke up one day and forgot how to read defenses". This all started after Daboll left. That is a big clue in my opinion.

I agree. Football is a 60 minutes game. It doesn't matter if you score 7 points per quarter, or all 28 in the final quarter. The points still count., The offense scored 25 points and left the field with a lead, under 2 minutes to go, and kicking off the ball to a Mac Jones led offense. In my opinion, the blame resides with the defense.

You clearly didn’t read what I wrote. In the very first sentence of my reply I wrote that it may have happened “incidentally”. Meaning, not on purpose. I went on to hypothesize how it could have happened, not due to an outright motive to tell him to read defenses less, but as a consequence of the mechanism of a string of decisions that naturally led to it.

Ok, but that doesn’t really have anything to do with what I said though, does it? I simply stated that Beane mid-season trades tend to be for lower depth players.

Considering it didn’t happen, yes. I can’t even count the number of quality guys we have been linked to in-season but it never happened.

I know you’re making the point that they wouldn’t do this, but i’m honestly not sure that they didn’t do this incidentally. How many times did we hear McD say or infer in 2021 that Daboll wasn’t running the type of offense he wanted? It wouldn’t shock me if McD has made it clear to Dorsey that he wants a simpler, more balanced offense, and that may have resulted in less focus on defensive reads and changing the play script, to a focus on McD’s desire for a quick execution offense that relies on coaches in the booth reading what the opponents defense has been doing. I think this is part of the reason his completion percentage is so high right now, but at the same time it has neutered him a bit. Like anything, the less you do of something, the rustier you get at it. I dont think it’s any coincidence that this began after Daboll left.

Sigh. Im trying to stay positive but Beane mid season trades do typically net us bottom of depth chart guys like this.

I’m not sure what you’re even arguing at this point? That the Eagles shouldn’t have traded for a top tier safety because they have to pay him average safety money?? Or they shouldn’t have upgraded a position because it doesn’t make them instant Super Bowl favorites??

He was benched again. Only played ST.

The Eagles are paying Byard $16.4M combined for the 2023 and 2024 season. That's an average of $8.2M per season. Which makes him the 19th highest paid safety in that time. He is a top 10 talent. I'm not sure why you're railing against this great trade by the Eagles so much. Are you doing it because you feel it is anti-Beane or something?

Yes. Sorry for the mistake. I was thinking of his 2021 extension.

Philly only paying $2.4M this year and $14M next year. Two years of an All-Pro safety for $16.4M.

He signed a $70M contract in 2019. That was 4 years ago. And it was restructured this offseason. -> The contract is now essentially 2 years, $21.5M. For an All-Pro safety. And Philly only has to pay $16M of that $21.5M. This is a slam dunk awesome deal. .

By far the best GM in the NFL. And he never hesitates to trade lottery tickets (draft capital) for proven players (AJ Brown, Byard, Demeco Ryans, etc)