Einstein

So, that's what a defense that can make a stop in crunch time looks like.

Stroud does have Tank Dell, who I would trade anyone on the Bills receiving core for (including Diggs).

CJ Stroud is legitimately a top 10 QB already. Incredible.

To be honest I agree with whatever mod wrote that. Spencer Brown is still the biggest liability on offense. Not to be confused with the biggest missing component (which is a #2 WR and playmaker). The reason we don't notice Spencer Brown as much anymore is because the Bills are giving him a lot of help from the TE staying in and chips from from the TE's and RB's going out in pass routes. Last time I checked the advanced stats, Brown was 2nd highest in the entire NFL for number of times needing help from another offensive player.

Here you go. I did a breakdown of this going back 40 years.

Goodness gracious it’s Edmunds all over again. In all seriousness though, the difference between Elam and your other examples (Epenesa), is that the team itself has written Elam off. They’re screaming “he sucks” and some and have their hands over their ears.

And then people defend it saying "the defender hit him!". Well, yeah... the receiver is paid to catch the ball despite what the defense does. This isn't flag football.

It does sorta feel that way. I feel he is overall a good coach. And we could do A LOT worse than McD. But I worry how in crunch time it just… falls apart. Over and over and over again. From Houston playoffs, to KC playoffs (13 seconds), to Arizona (Hail Murray), to NE, to Denver, to Philly, to Minnesota … even the Miami playoff game we barely held on after going up 17-0. Seems like the only way we can win is to blow teams out. People mention all the greats that took a long time to put it together… Reid, Cowher, Belichick, etc. But were those coaches losing games in the most asinine heartbreaking fashion like McD has? Am I simply forgetting the ways those coaches lost? Do any of those guys have all-time blunders like 13 seconds, for example? It would make me feel a lot better if they do.

You’re misreading that stat.

The odd thing about the defense is that they can play very well all game, but as soon as you need 1 critical stop, with the game on the line, they will fold. That's the most frustrating part, in my opinion. The injuries don't keep them from playing like a top 10 defense for 58 minutes. Just those last 2 minutes.

You are brave. Hope you have a great time.

Yep, that's exactly right. Cutting Poyer, Morse, Harty and HInes gets us to $-19,246,528. Restructuring Allen to $1M base brings us to -$245,528. Then with negative cap, you have to get a new starting SS and Center (or start a guy who is a backup on the current roster). Plus sign all your draft picks. Plus get free agents. I'm guessing they will extend several players (like Dawkins, Douglas, etc) to give them some cap relief next year. But that, again, creates some cap space this year, while deflating next year. Problems for the future Continuously restructuring Allen's contract creates issues going forward, because his contract is only 5 more years. He doesnt have a Mahomes 12 year contract to spread the restructured money out. Restructuring Allen this offseason will create the following cap hits going forward. 2025: Original: $56,556,281 + Additional $4,000,000 (prorated bonus) = New Cap Hit: $60,556,281 2026: Original: $52,256,281 + Additional $4,000,000 = New Cap Hit: $56,256,281 2027: Original: $45,284,000 + Additional $4,000,000 = New Cap Hit: $49,284,000 We are trading a $28M cap hit this year, for a $60M cap hit next year. The money never goes away - we just keep kicking it down the road and making his cap hit incredibly high later on. .

Are you aware of how restructuring works? It’s not magic free money. Restructuring Diggs and Oliver makes little sense to me. 1) Diggs only has 3 years left on his contract after next season. Restructuring makes those last 3 years nearly impossible. We could free up $14M in cap space this off-season but then Diggs cap would be well over $30 million after that. His cap hit would be $31M in 2025, $32M in 2026 and $26M in 2027. Then what? And he would be untradeable and impossible to cut (ever), since his dead cap would be more than $20M every single year going forward. I can almost guarantee the Bills don’t do this. 2) You said you want to restructure Oliver. Doing so would only save $1.6M. I guess we could do this, but it would be paltry. Allen is the only reasonable restructure from the players you mentioned. With this plan, we need at least 6 new starters. SS, FS, C, NCB, DT, DE. Realistically, Diggs and Milano dead cap is too high ($20+M each).

ahh, you're right. I completely forget about that one. Well, mods can of course merge. My mistake.

This is because OTC is using a wrong starting number ($29M) instead of the correct number ($42M). OTC's numbers are always shaky (Use Spotrac for official numbers). It's just math. Try again here: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2024/ For those who don't know, OTC is just ran by a fan. It used to be a Jets cap website. Spotrac is a partner of USA Today.

That's an interesting point.

How do you restructure a player that has only 1 effective year left? That would move his 2025 cap hit (final year) to $36 million, OR you spread that across the void years and we will end up having to pay for Von Miller for 3 years after he is gone/retired. Either scenario is yuck. I'd be shocked if they did this. It just doesn't work this way. Your plan of restructuring everyone would end in the teams cap space imploding the next 2 years. Restructuring isn't free money. It just moves it prorated to the following years of the contract. .

You're right. This could be a very defensive draft again.

Right, but say we reduce his cap hit from $16M to $4M (void years, signing bonus, yada yada), we are still $30M over the cap. I guess what im trying to say is we need to make many more moves than that.

Allen has a base salary next year of $23M. Say we move $20M of that to a signing bonus, saving $16M next year. That reduces our -$42M to -$26M. Keep in mind that restructuring simply kicks the can down the road. For example, restructuring this last offseason made Allen's 2025 cap hit $56 million. This would put $20M more onto his cap hit for the final 3 years of his contract, making his cap numbers: 2025: Original: $56,556,281 + Additional $4,000,000 (prorated bonus) = New Cap Hit: $60,556,281 2026: Original: $52,256,281 + Additional $4,000,000 = New Cap Hit: $56,256,281 2027: Original: $45,284,000 + Additional $4,000,000 = New Cap Hit: $49,284,000 So that would make Allen's cap hit over the next 3 years, totals over $165.9 Million. Something to keep in mind (they cant keep doing this).

It looks like in your scenario, we keep Dawkins and Morse, and release Tre White, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines. That brings our cap space to negative $19M ($19,284,114). This likely brings the cap to negative ($23M) or so, assuming $1M in signing year. Draft picks will cost a little under $6M. We are now at negative ($29M). Calculate for yourself... https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2024/

My cap numbers are including the cap increase. But i don't want to clutter this thread anymore. Please move discussion here:

We were discussing this in the Von Miller thread, but thought maybe it wasn't wise to continue cluttering that thread with cap talk. We are currently $42 million over the cap for next season. That number assumes the NFL increases the salary cap increases, from the current cap of $224.8M to $243.9M (technically we are about $62 million over at the moment), plus rollover. Getting under the cap If we release Dion Dawkins, Tre White, Taron Johnson, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Deonte Harty, and Nyheim Hines, we can get down to almost $0 (-413,780) cap space. Obviously this doesn't include restructures yet. But we can't just endlessly keep kicking the can down the road. If we do NOT release one of those starters, you can add the following to our cap negative by this amount: Keeping Dawkins: Add $4.8M to cap negative. Keeping White: Add $6.2M to cap negative. Keeping Taron: Add $7.7M to cap negative. Keeping Morse: Add $8.5M to cap negative. Keeping Poyer: Add $5.5M to cap negative. Key players that will have to be re-signed or let walk Micah Hyde: Contract expires this offseason. Daquan Jones: Contract expires this offseason. Leonard Floyd: Contract expires this offseason. Summary We are $42M over the estimated 2024 cap, with Jones, Floyd and Hyde contract expiring. We will need a mixture of releasing starters, and re-structuring current deals, in order to get enough cap to draft players. We are likely going to have to restructure Allen, and then replace a lot of starters with very little money. .

Yes that calculation assumes the NFL salary cap goes up by almost $20M. The $42M under assumes we get a $20M increase in cap space. Technically we are $62M under at the moment.

Not saying we can't. I'm stating that it's tough to swallow the thought of spending even more draft capital to rebuild half the defense. It's what we have been doing for years now. Hyde's contract also expires this year. We also will lose Floyd, unless we sign him again. And their defense was bottom half of the NFL in points allowed. They won because of their offense. So draft 2 WR's and still draft 4 defensive starters? It's a lot to ask for is all i'm saying. A much better RT for one. Likely need a new LT at some point with Dawkins only having 1 year left on his contract (unless we are willing to spend huge money to re-sign Dawkins). A legitimate #2 (and drafted #2 WR's typically take a year or two to develop). If we release Dawkins, White, Johnson, Morse, Poyer, Harty, and Hines we can get down to almost $0 cap space. Then we will have to restructure a few players to get enough room just to sign the draft picks.