Einstein

Maybe at one point in time.

I'll be celebrating right next to you.

I haven't done that analysis yet, but lots of coaches on the Super Bowl list had been fired. Several of them after only 1 down year following several great years.

Exactly. That's why teams should always be searching for one who can. Haha. Got it fixed!

The tenure of Sean McDermott as head coach and the appropriate "leash" to allow him to lead this team to the Super Bowl has been a topic of considerable debate on this forum. While there's a consensus that he deserves additional time, the crux of the argument lies in determining the precise length of this leash. To shed light on this, I conducted a simple data study, examining the trajectory of every NFL head coach who has led their team to the Super Bowl (not necessarily winning, just reaching the final game) over the past 40 NFL seasons. Here is what the data revealed: On average, it takes a head coach 4.2 seasons to reach his first Super Bowl. Only 5 coaches in the past 40 years have made their inaugural Super Bowl appearance after 7 seasons of head coaching. This is particularly relevant as Sean McDermott is about to enter his seventh season as head coach The most frequent timeline for a coach's first Super Bowl appearance is two years, closely followed by five years. This trend suggests that many coaches are capable of assembling a Super Bowl-worthy team within the first 5 years of their tenure (77% of these coaches managed to make the Super Bowl within their first 5 seasons) NOTE: The data is across the coaches entire NFL career. For example, if a coach spent 5 years on his first team, and 4 years on his second team (before making a Super Bowl) the data tallies 9 total seasons prior to his inaugural Super Bowl appearance. NOTE 2: The Sean McDermott line is where McDermott will be after this upcoming season. the chart cuts off some of the names because the list is so long, but the data is there.

Forget about “always”. How about ever? Other teams figure out how to get that perfect ending 2, 3, 4, even 6 times.

This is the rallying cry of every loser. The victors show off their rings.

I could not have been more clear. A team has a successful season if they win the Super Bowl. If they don’t, it wasn’t successful. Doesn’t mean the team sucks, but they did not meet their goal. Notice that Allen didn’t mention the “micro goals” you love? Because he (rightfully so) doesn’t give a crap about those. “The goal is to win the super bowl” - Josh Allen

The Bills have not been successful at completing the one and only goal of every NFL team. They have not even been successful at gaining entry to the event (Super Bowl) that gives them the opportunity to grasp the one and only goal. Nothing to do with egotism. It’s just fact. “Our goal is to win the Super Bowl” - Josh Allen

McNabb was good but I think you’re overrating him a bit. He averaged 18 TD’s per season. That’s pretty low. It took him 8 seasons to have as many passing TD’s as Allen has in 5 (not even including rushing TD’s). That Super Bowl year you mentioned seemed to break him. He only had 2 seasons with more than 20 TD’s the remainder of his 7 year career. .

Wow. This speaks volumes.

Fans ignore that. We traded the picks that are the best QB in the NFL and the best WR in the NFL. But that’s okay, because, excuses…

It’s not. Reid showed early on that he can make Super Bowls and Championship games. And it took him getting fired and multiple QB’s later to win a Super Bowl.

Yeah, that’s tiered progress. There is no (or at least very little) correlation between a business or personal collaborative effort with tiered progress, and the NFL. The NFL does not require tiered progress. Teams can go from missing the playoffs one season to winning the Super Bowl the next. Teams can go from losing nearly half of their regular season games, to winning the Super Bowl, in the same season. In the NFL, tiered progress is not required… Unless you are actively seeking something positive to be happy about, to make one feel better.

lol, what? The fact that McD and Frazier called the exact same defensive formation on 3rd and short doesn’t matter because it was an early season game instead of a playoff game? Grasping at straws level 1,000.

Uhm, no. Reid made the AFC Championship game in year 3, 4, 5, and 6. And went to the Super Bowl in year 6. By the same point in his career that McDermott is in now, Reid had been in 3 more championship games and a Super Bowl. I must admit. I laughed when I saw that @Augie liked your post that was filled with factual errors. Shows that some posters don’t want facts - they simply want their feelings and opinions validated.

The difference is that Reid had already been to 5 Championship games and a Super Bowl by that point. BIG difference between that and McDermott. One was a lot closer to the goal than the other.

McDermott is the longest tenured coach without a Super Bowl appearance. Why do you think that is? Why aren’t there a litany of head coaches, with more years of service, that lack a Super Bowl appearance? After allC owners understand that the goal is hard, right? The answer isn't complicated. Other franchises tend to let go of their head coach after a certain period of not meeting the ultimate objective.

This is laughable. The worlds leading executives are arrogant silver tongues who languish every opportunity to spew their connections and wealth upon others. Most people know the obvious ones, such as Elon Musk and Martin Shkreli, but they’re all (more or less) like this. Once you reach a certain level, you’re no longer purchasing more cars, homes, art, and jets for yourself - but rather as a d measuring contest among other top executives. What the post above shows is that Augie is not well connected and does not know many people in high positions. The humble are the few and far between.

What you’re describing is tiered progress. While I would not regard these milestones as “success”, I can understand why a fan would want to categorize it that way.

This is a strawman. No one is arguing that coaches should be fired for not winning a Super Bowl in any given year. But what if they go the better part of the decade, with a top 5 QB, and never even MAKE the Super Bowl? What about then?

Every teams wins games during a season. You should be more specific. How do you define success in the NFL?

How do you define success in the NFL?

Correct. And that is NOT the same thing as saying "every team but KC sucks". Only the Chiefs were successful in reaching their goal. No other team received the Lombardi trophy. No other team added to their rings. No other team was sucessful in reaching their goal. That is not myopic - its factual.

And yet he still went to 3 AFC Championship games and a Super Bowl in his first 7 seasons during that point in time you mention. If Reid could accomplish that while being one of the worst game-day coaches you have ever seen ... how poorly does that reflect on McDermott?