BillytheKid

Yeah I thought about that. lol… would have 100 pages of hate. If I posted it on the Commander’s site would probably have 100 pages of how correct this is. 😁

I guess go look it up for yourself then. I’m just telling you what the advanced stats said. How would Mahomes get robbed? He got scored the exact same way as everyone else? He was the best Passer beating Burrow out by 1 point in that category. Josh beat out Mahomes and Burrow because of his running score. I weighted all of the passing and running to make sure each person got weighted more if they were a pass more of run more QB and based it on how much they did of each. Not saying you are wrong just wondering how he would be robbed. Also like I mentioned in there, if it was only running and passing put together and no sacks or turnovers were included then Lamar beats Josh out by 1 point as the top QB.

Appreciate the feed back. Actually it wasn’t. I was trying to not come to any specific conclusion. I used a bunch of advanced stats and tried to find who was the best. Allen didn’t finish first in anyone category. I tried to use a point system that was fair. I also weighted the passing and running based on what percentage of time each QB threw the ball vs ran it so that way there wasn’t a giant one size fits all which would be unfair. I tried to make it well rounded. Obviously you could exclude certain things and get different results. I could take out everything and just use passing and Mahomes would be the best QB last year still. Because he had the best all around advanced passing stats even though people thought he wasn’t good. He actually was good overall outside things on his offense that weren’t related to him caused his regular stats to not be as good. If we just did running, Jayden Daniels was actually better than Lamar overall. So I guess it’s how you wanna look at it. I was just trying to see what the advanced stats using many of them would find with the help of AI and that’s how it worked out. Agree with you but that’s why I used advanced stats because they tell a better story in my opinion compared to just using regular stats. Anyways was a fun and interesting exercise.

It’s advanced stats. Which are very different than regular stats. So it takes into account whether the throws were actually good throws and the receiver just didn’t catch it and so on and so forth. Turnover worthy plays. Not sure if you read the whole thing or not as it explains how I got to where I got with it.

First off thanks! It factored in playing time for every QB. I had it exclude any and only QB’s that didn’t play 15 games or more. I went back and double checked it as good as I could.

I did an experiment. I used only advanced stats and AI to find out who the best QB was. I’m making a video for it. I have all of the stats and the voiceovers down for it. Below is the script of it. i haven’t got the images for it yet. I want to get it out and finished in the next week or two. Found some very interesting things. It’s about an 8 to 9 minute read below. Let me know if you guys think there is any flaws in it. I tried to not be as bias as possible and just let the advanced stats do the talking. Everything is explained below with how I did it and the scoring. If you read it I hope you enjoy. Some interesting finds. —————————————————— This is not hype. This is not opinions. It’s execution—measured across 26 advanced metrics to find the best quarterback of the 2024–25 NFL season. No bias. No favoritism. Just pure football truth—backed by data. Traditional stats tell part of the story—but they don’t let you compare great quarterbacks with different styles. Advanced metrics track every throw’s quality, every risk, every decision. They strip out noise—and reveal what execution really looks like. I graded every quarterback across four execution quadrants: Passing. Rushing. Turnover control. Sack discipline. Each quadrant had a defined role—and a defined weight. Also each quarterback must have played at least 15 games during the season to qualify. Inside each quadrant, we used between two and eleven advanced stats—26 total. Every QB was evaluated on the same 26. The result? A 260-point grading system that rewards clean, complete execution. To score every metric fairly, we used a 10-point scale. First place got 10 points, second 9, third 8—all the way down to 1 point for 10th place. Finish outside the top 10? You got zero. And when there was a tie, we averaged the tied positions. So if two QBs tied for second, that’s 8.5 points each. One rule. One scale. All season. Passing isn’t just the foundation of quarterbacking—it’s the foundation of the Vault. This quadrant uses 11 advanced metrics, worth 110 total points, to evaluate everything from ball placement to pressure control. We begin with Intended Air Yards per Attempt and Completed Air Yards per Completion. These measure how far a quarterback pushes the ball vertically—before and after the catch. Next: Bad Throw Percentage and On-Target Percentage. One shows how often the QB missed. The other shows how often he nailed the throw. Drop Rate isolates when the receiver failed to finish. Yards After Catch per Completion helps us separate QB value from receiver value. Then we grade timing with Pocket Time and Time to Throw. Was the ball coming out fast? Was the pocket steady—or did the QB make it look that way? Finally: Pressure Rate Faced and Pressure-to-Sack Percentage. How often was the QB under heat—and what did he do with it? Passing execution isn’t just about throwing. It’s about decision-making, movement, and results. Then comes mobility—because passing might be the plan, but not every play goes as planned. The Rushing quadrant uses 10 metrics, worth up to 100 points, to capture a quarterback’s legs as a weapon. We looked at Yards Before and After Contact per Attempt. Broken Tackles. Tackles for Loss. Then we counted Explosive Runs of 10, 20, and 30+ yards. Not every run is created equal. Some change the scoreboard. Rush Directionality showed where QBs had the most success—left, middle, or right. Red Zone Rushing graded their value in short-yardage chaos. And finally: Rush EPA—expected points added—put a number on how much value they truly generated. This wasn’t about highlight runs. It was about situational damage. That’s what mobility means in the Vault. But creating yards is only half the job. The other half? Protecting them. Let’s talk about turnovers—because execution without security doesn’t last. The Turnovers quadrant used just two metrics—worth 20 points—but they carried weight. First: Total Turnovers. Every interception. Every fumble lost. Then: Turnover-Worthy Plays. Throws that should’ve been picked. Fumbles that a teammate bailed out. Because results can lie—but risk always tells the truth. Execution means protecting the ball—on purpose and by principle. Every quarterback gets pressured. Not every quarterback makes it worse. Sack Discipline used three advanced metrics, worth 30 points, to measure how well a QB avoids negative plays when the pocket breaks down. Sack Rate per Dropback graded how often pressure turned into points for the defense. Pressure-to-Sack Percentage revealed whether the QB escaped—or created his own problem. And Time to Throw added crucial context: was the sack on the line, or on the guy holding the football? It’s not just about avoiding losses. It’s about eliminating them before they begin. — But before we show any scores—let’s make one thing clear: Not every quarterback plays the same game. Some guys, like Joe Burrow, pass on nearly every play. Others, like Lamar Jackson, attack with their legs far more often. So we made the grading fair—for every style. We weighted each quarterback’s passing and rushing scores based on how often they actually passed or ran. If a QB passed the ball 93% of the time, we took 93% of their passing score and 7% of their rushing score. If someone ran 30% of the time, we multiplied their rushing score by that rate. Everything aligned with real play-calling data—not guesses or assumptions. For example: Say Burrow scored 95 points in passing and 40 in rushing. He passed 92% of the time. That gives him 87.4 for passing and 3.2 for rushing—total: 90.6. Now say Lamar scored 80 passing and 85 rushing, with a 68% pass rate. His weighted totals would be 54.4 passing, 27.2 rushing—total: 81.6. That’s just a sample to show how the formula works—not actual Vault scores. Because in the Vault, it’s not about how you should play. It’s about how well you play your game. Four quadrants. Twenty-six metrics. Two hundred and sixty possible points. Passing measured precision, timing, and command. Rushing captured mobility, contact balance, and explosive damage. Turnovers exposed risk, recklessness, and who could be trusted. Sack Discipline showed who turned pressure into poise—and who turned it into points for the other team. Each quadrant stood on its own. But together? They formed the most complete picture of quarterback execution we’ve ever built. The tape is real. The numbers are real. And now—it’s time to see Before we crown the full top 10 execution quarterbacks— Let’s spotlight the QBs who dominated each individual quadrant. Passing: The top 3 in precision, depth, and timing: 1. Patrick Mahomes (92)- creativity, touch, trust in chaos. 2. Joe Burrow (91)- footwork, ball placement, and absolute command. 3. Jared Goff (87)- Trust built production, success within structure not outside it. Rushing: The top 3 in ground damage and improvisation: 1. Jayden Daniel’s (42)- Unmatched explosiveness, elite scramble EPA, and broken tackle magic 2. Lamar Jackson (40)- Broken tackles, big plays, unstoppable in the red zone 3. Josh Allen (34)- Downhill power with red zone finishing ability Turnover Control: The QBs you could trust not to blow it: 1. Jayden Daniel’s (17)- Elite ball security, took risks without recklessness 2. Patrick Mahomes (14.5)- Controlled chaos, trusted windows, avoided traps Tied at 3. Josh Allen (14) and Joe Burrow (14)- Different styles same result: clean tape under pressure Sack Discipline: The 3 best at beating pressure: 1. Patrick Mahomes- extended plays without creating losses 2. Joe Burrow- Trusts timing, throws early, avoids disaster 3. Josh Allen- Elite sack avoidance, lowest pressure to sack percentage, and quick decision making These were the quadrant kings. But consistency across all four is what earns you a spot in the Vault. --- We’ve accounted for every stat. We’ve applied real usage weights to passing and rushing. And now—each quarterback has their final Vault Score, out of 260. Let’s count down the 10 most complete execution quarterbacks from the 2024–25 NFL season. Built on balance. Defined by discipline. Welcome to the top 10. --- #10 – Baker Mayfield (94.0) “He tightened the chaos.” Tamed the wild plays, embraced structure throws, and managed risk better than ever. Earned this spot with just enough discipline and a top-10 passing score. --- #9 – Jalen Hurts (106.0) “Dangerous legs, high-stakes tape.” Top-tier rushing impact and explosive threat—but cost himself with sacks and turnover volatility. The tape swung hard both ways. --- #8 – Jordan Love (107.0) “Started rough. Finished sharp.” Execution jumped post-Thanksgiving: cleaner reads, safer throws, stronger structure. Vault rewards that kind of growth. --- #7 – Jared Goff (119.0) “Surgical in structure.” Third-best passing score in the league. TWP rate near zero. He may not move much—but he moved the offense better than most. --- #6 – C.J. Stroud (133.5) “Second-year poise, veteran control.” Vault top 6 in both passing and sack control. Calm presence, consistent mechanics, and a decision-maker you could trust. --- #5 – Lamar Jackson (146.0) “This was Lamar in full control.” He blended rushing explosion with passing efficiency—and drastically cut back on risk. In fact, if this were only about rushing and passing, Lamar would’ve edged out the top spot I’ve Allen by 1 point. But sack discipline and turnover rate pulled him back just a touch. Still, this was his most polished execution tape in years. — #4 – Patrick Mahomes (147.5) “Less chaos. More control.” Mahomes posted elite scores in three of four quadrants, including the best sack control in football. This was a version of Mahomes that played clean, smart, and within structure—even if the weapons fell short. The wild throws were optional. The precision was permanent. — #3 – Joe Burrow (151.0) “He didn’t need the full season. He just needed rhythm.” Burrow missed time, but when he played, he passed like only Burrow can: footwork, timing, and a near-flawless understanding of pressure. Top 3 in passing. Top 3 in sack discipline. No panic. Just precision. — #2 – Jayden Daniels (152.0) “He played like a five-year vet in year one.” Daniels was the #1 rusher and #1 in turnover avoidance—with enough passing control to hold up against any QB on this list. He delivered value everywhere on the field—and didn’t make the rookie mistakes. Efficiency. Composure. And the best Vault debut we’ve ever scored. — #1 – Josh Allen (156.0) “He didn’t just fix his flaws—he buried them.” Top 3 in three of four quadrants. Allen weaponized his legs, tightened his decision-making, and became the best sack-avoider in football. He didn’t just score points—he erased mistakes. This was Josh Allen’s most complete season of execution. And in the Vault, completeness wins.

I saw one guy who covers the NFL, can’t remember his name… he had Solomon as the break out player of the year for the Bills. So would be a little shocked if he didn’t make the roster. EDIT: I hadn’t read through the whole thread when I posted at first. I see in a post above me that check the mic had him as a breakout player, there was also someone else I believe that listed him as well.

I became a Bills fan during the night Allen got drafted to the Bills only because I’m originally from Wyoming and an alum there. I had a different favorite NFL team all my other years. I was actually a Redskins/Commanders fan my whole life and became one as a 6 year old watching them in the Super Bowl in 1983 beat Miami with John Riggins running on them. Became a huge Riggins fan and Joe Gibbs fan and was my whole life but became a Bills fan the night they drafted Josh. I still root for the Commanders but not like I used to after Buffalo drafted Josh. Any time they played the Bills I would still be a Bills fan because of Josh and have rooted for the bills against them when they have played Main reason I root for the Bills now and they are my favorite team is because of Josh and his association to Wyoming. Once he is done playing I can’t say for sure I’ll still be a Bills fan or go back to the Commanders. I usually stick with my same team but for now I’m a Bills fan because of Josh. I have good reason though since I’m from Wyoming. I’m not a bandwagon fan just because the Bills became good. I would still root for them as long as Josh was here. Of course if the Bills were bad Josh probably wouldn’t still be here. The longer I’m a Bills fan the greater the chance of me sticking with them after he leaves but he would have to play his whole career here for any chance of that. Which I’m sure he will. I normally would never switch favorite teams but this was a special circumstance. Most Wyoming fans are Broncos fans but a lot of them are Bills fans now also.

Biggest difference is that Jones vertical was 38.5 and Prathers is only 30.

I’m not saying I’m in love with Moore but he has proven “Moore” than Coleman has. The average drop rate for a receiver or TE in the NFL is 6.7% of catchable balls. Coleman had almost twice that of a drop rate. He was targeted 33 times and dropped 4 of them. Plus his route running hasn’t been the best. You may say well it’s only 4 dropped balls but when it’s almost twice that of the average receiver it’s a big deal. If he gets targeted more than 33 times and his drop rate stays the same then it’s going to be a problem. Moores drop rate was only 4.9% which is below the league average and he had 61 receptions last year to Coleman’s 29 and Moore had far worse QB’s. Yeah Coleman missed a couple games but he wasn’t getting anywhere close to 61 receptions. I am hoping Coleman steps up and is great by all means. My point is so far he hasn’t proven much of anything based on actual advanced stats. I want the best receivers on the team out there. If that’s Coleman by all means step up and show it. I am not biased on who the starting receivers are as long as they do their jobs.

I didn’t say he was getting cut. He most likely is the 5th receiver. They have brought in 2 guys better than him this off-season based on what they have proven in the NFL and Samuel's has also proven a lot more in the league than Coleman has. He also wasn’t the 2nd best receiver. He may have ended up with the 2nd most yards or whatever but his overall efficiency was terrible! He will most likely make the team but he isn’t making it above the 4 other guys I listed. Lots of people seem to think Moore is going to have a chance to get cut and there is no way that is happening. They didn’t bring him in to get cut when he has proven FAR more than Coleman has and did it with a lot worse QB’s. Not laughable at all. I’ll repeat what I posted to someone else. I didn’t say he was getting cut. He most likely is the 5th receiver. They have brought in 2 guys better than him this off-season based on what they have proven in the NFL and Samuel's has also proven a lot more in the league than Coleman has. He also wasn’t the 2nd best receiver. He may have ended up with the 2nd most yards or whatever but his overall efficiency was terrible! He will most likely make the team but he isn’t making it above the 4 other guys I listed. Lots of people seem to think Moore is going to have a chance to get cut and there is no way that is happening. They didn’t bring him in to get cut when he has proven FAR more than Coleman has and did it with a lot worse QB’s.

I’ve already said it in another thread. Coleman is the receiver fighting for the final roster spot. Shakir, Palmer, Moore, Samuels are all making it. 5th spot will be between Coleman and whoever else. Beane and McDermott were not happy with him. He is not a lock to make the team as many seem to think IMO. Unless he really really makes a jump from last year.

No such thing as strength of schedule. plenty of the teams from last year that were good won’t be good this season and teams that were bad will be better. Everyone always tries to predict stuff based on the previous season and it never even comes close to what they think. So all of the strength of schedule stuff is meaningless and pointless. No one thought San Francisco was going to have all of those injuries last year and miss the playoffs. No one thought the Vikings were going 15-2 with Sam Darnold before the year started. Lots of people thought the Bills were going to have a tough year and Miami or the Jets would be good. So no one knows how tough or easy the schedule will be until games are being played. I do think the law of averages starts catching up to KC, especially losing the Super Bowl, also having been there 3 years in a row, winning ALL of those close games last year, Kelce being another year older, they will have a down year next year compared to what they usually do. I would take the Under on their win total as easy money. Plus Chargers and Broncos “should” be tougher against them. Doubt Mahomes misses the playoffs but if they did it wouldn’t be a shocker to me at all. Kinda like 49ers this last year after having a Super Bowl hangover. Chiefs were trying to go for 3 in a row last year and put a lot into it. I could see them having a major Super Bowl loss hangover going into this season.

I’m a huge Allen fan but nobody is like Jordan was. Jordan was the most competitive person ever. No one comes close. David Blaine was trying to do a card trick with him and Jordan tried to cheat with that because he didn’t want to get fooled on a stupid card trick. Yeah Jordan would make stuff up because that who he is. Most of the guys are competitive but not to Jordan’s level.

This is false. Moore definitely isn’t fighting for the 5th WR spot. He will be starting. Palmer, Shakir, and Moore are the 3 best receivers on the team. Shakir will always be number 1 as far as Josh is concerned but Moore or Palmer could be 2nd or 3rd. They both have already proved they can play in the league. The Bills didn’t bring him in to be the 5th receiver. Samuel also will be in the top 4 if he plays like he did the last third of the season from last year and the fact he has already proven he can play in the league. Right now Keon is going to have to be the one to prove himself as he had a major drop off 2nd half of last season and Beane and McDermott were not happy with him. Can he play well enough to jump any of these other guys? Maybe but he is in the 5th position right now, I don’t care if they took him as their top pick last year. He has to prove a lot more.