BigAl2526

I'm developing a man crush on Payton Turner. I could live with this draft.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but I assume your positing that there are multiple players that a GM likes a few picks back, so he'd wait in order to shave a bit off the salary needed to draft him. I understand the reasoning, but GMs are notoriously risk averse. The salary difference between draft slots six spaces apart is probably the last consideration a GM would ever have. Given Buffalo's position at the end of the first, there is an additional consideration to make, the fifth year option that the team has. If you think the player you're drafting has a chance to be good (and that's why you're drafting him early in the draft, that fifth year option gives you a little insurance that you can keep him under contract a bit longer. That is a consideration for GMs. Buffalo loses that if they just pass until the draft gets to the second round.

I would be stunned if any GM actually did that deliberately. Why? Because they will worry about whom the teams that would pick above them would choose. What if somebody else picks the player you had targeted at a lower spot?

I agree with the OP. I don't think it's a real surprise that this is the case. This is the deepest and most talented roster the Bills have had in many years, if ever. That combines with Beane's philosophy of filling as many holes as possible in free agency so the Bills are are in a position to take the BPA without being tempted to draft a poor value due to need. Draft position also contributes to that state. At #30 there will not be a player with a full slate of elite traits without red flags. Unless you know exactly what Brandon Beane's level of risk aversion is, you can't know what red flags he's going to be willing to overlook. Caleb Farley's back? Jaelen Phillips' concussions? Rumors about Christian Barmore's coachability? Jayson Oweh's disturbing lack of production?

Cars get a bit cheaper after they've been broken in. Good, young, proven veterans get more expensive, both as free agents and trade targets.

A very encouraging article, why doesn't Buffalo hire a guy like that to coach the running backs?

I get the practice of putting a draft placement grade on players, but while there might be some year to year variation, I'm guessing that it would be a rare year when more than 32 players got a first round grade, and an overwhelming majority of drafts have fewer than 30 players with a first round grade. There are other factors that go into the decision to trade out of the round or not. The most obvious is the question of who is willing to trade with you. I would guess that most of the time you don't want to drop below the top third of the second round Who in that group is willing to trade, and what will they give you for the #30 spot? Team need and the value of available players by position is a huge factor. I imagine individual preference weighs on that factor. For instance, most would agree that WR is not a huge need for the Bills this year. Obviously Jaylen Waddle, Jamar Chase, Devonta Smith and Rashod Bateman are going to be gone at 30. Kadarius Toney may or may not be available, and Elijah Moore probably will be available. If he is, Beane has to decide how much of a value he is. Buffalo could conceivably have to part ways with Beasley next season because of cap issues and Beasley's age. Either Toney or Moore could fill Beasley's role, and both have the speed to be a legit deep threat like John Brown. Plus they are tough enough to fill Isaiah McKenzie's gadget player role. That adds up to quite a bit of value I would not be dismayed if Buffalo ended up with either one of them at #30. Finally, there is the Round 1 contract consideration. When you draft a player in round 1, you've got him for 4 years at a value price, (if he's any good) plus a bonus fifth year if you want him at a higher price that a team may still consider to be a bargain. If you're rolling the dice on a player with issues, maybe you don't care about that fifth year, buy maybe you would consider a player with a little lower ceiling (and draft position ranking) if he's got a high floor, and you want the stability the fifth year option gives you. Carlos Basham might be an example. I would guess he's not currently regarded as a first round value, but at the same time a lot of people consider him to be a safe pick who will have a nice NFL career. I think it is very possible the Bills trade out of the #30 spot, either up 5-8 spots, or down to the top third of the second round, but if they stand pat at #30, I'm not going to worry to much about the value they're getting.

Marquez Stevenson ran a 4.45 40 at his pro day. Schwartz ran a 4.26. In what universe is that comparable? 4.45 is fast enough to be a legit deep threat, but if Stevenson aspires to be a special receiver in the NFL, 4.45 speed is not what is getting him there.

If the Bills don't get their edge rusher in round 1, I'm intrigued by Payton Turner.

Somewhere, sometime, Denver fans are going to hear John Elway say, "We have to QBs capable of starting." Somewhere someone is reported as saying, "If yout have 2 starting QBs, you don't have any. Of course the main effect for the Bills is that it removes one of the mail obstacles to New England trading up to pick a QB.

That's always been my opinion of Lamar Jackson. He's got a unique athletic profile and skill set as a QB. If you've got an OC who can figure out how to use him (and Greg Roman is perfect for him) he is going to be successful, but opposing DCs will figure out what he can't do, and good teams will be able to contain his strengths to an extent. Initially, he was wildly successful because no defense has has ever seen a QB like Jackson. He's going to continue to have some success because he's still unique. It is always going to be tough to prepare for "unique," but the best opponents are going to manage it.

I'll go with Jayson Oweh.

Devon Singletary's decline seems to have more to do with a change in the Bills' running strategy than anything else. In 2019, they used a power blocking scheme and ran the ball between tackles a lot. In 2020, they did more zone blocking and tried to run the ball outside more. I don't know if the Bills are going to keep trying to run like they did last season or go back to more of a power blocking run game. If they want to have one back who can do everything, they should draft Ettienne. Harris would be a clear upgrade over what Buffalo has, a power back who is a weapon in the short passing game, but I don't think anyone would describe him as elusive or fast.

The most recent rumor I've hear (on the radio) has Pittsburgh picking Najee Harris at #24, I can't imagine Buffalo will trade up for him. I know that Asante Samuel has appeared as a Bills pick in a lot of mocks, but I can't see it. He's strong for his size, but like so many Bills CBs he's undersized to play onon the outside. He's mostly seen as a slot cornerback who could play some safety. That still leaves Buffalo with Levi Wallace on the outside, unless the undersized Dane Jackson or the undersized Samuel wins the starting job. That still leaves Buffalo vulnerable to big physical receivers. I think Samuel is faster than what Buffalo has and might not get beat deep as much, but he would leave me a big frustrated as a fan. Phillips and Oweh seem fairly obvious, though there are risks with both of them. You're not going to be able to draft Chase Young or Myles Garrett at #30.

Stats have value, but there are other factors as well. It's not just "heart" whatever that is. It's also opportunity. For whatever reason, Josh Allen did not have the opportunity to participate in a big time high school program. That led to him not getting a real opportunity to go to a 4 year college with a chance to start. Instead, he went to a small time community college. Even that did not get him a scholarship offer from a division 1 school. He always had to settle for leftovers. A kid can react to the lack of opportunity by giving up, or he can decide he's going to outwork everybody else and prove them wrong. Fortunately, Allen had the raw talent to succeed and personality wise, he turned out to be the latter, a guy who is going to outwork and out compete everybody else, and prove them wrong. I'm sure the Bills scouting staff crunched all the numbers, including pro day performance, but fortunately they dug deeper and talked to Josh Allen's coaches along the way. Of course, they interviewed Allen as well. So I'm going to give some credit to Brandon Beane. It's about analytics, but not just about analytics. He made a decision based on his belief that the intangibles he and the scouting staff sensed in Allen from all the extra work they did, that he was better than his stats. It should be noted that the Bills were not the only team impressed with Allen. You may recall that the Arizona Cardinals were heavily rumored to be planning to take Josh Allen when Buffalo traded up to ***** him out from under their noses. Nobody can prove that, but it's reasonably plausible.

If he could actually craft a QB, he's smarter than any of us, regardless of the round. Drafting a running back is another story.

I like the top tree picks. Not so sure about the second trade. Beane has gotten lots of value from his late round picks.

I buy the reasoning that you don't draft the player with the lower ceiling at #3. Virtually everybody thinks Mac Jones is the player with the lower ceiling. I suspect the choice will be Trey Lance.

Preach it, brother, but I think the draft starts Thursday and round 3 will be conducted with round 2 on Friday. As for Trey Sermon, not a fan.

There are always going to be limits. The player's initial choice is to attempt to play professionally or not. To me it's not so different from the person who takes a job with a big corporation, then has to locate wherever the corporation wants him to, or my own situation. I'm a retired pastor in a denomination that uses an appointment system. For 40 years I lived where I was appointed. I lived in 5 different locations over the years. Most of the time, I didn't have a choice about the house I lived in. One difference is they have a contract that may pay them anywhere from 7 times to 800 times what I made per year at the end of my career. I won't even tell you what I made when I started out in 1979. Anyway, I'm not that sympathetic toward professional ball players over the draft issue. If there was no draft, I can't imagine how we could have viable sports leagues. If we didn't, these guys would be playing semi-pro ball at best.

My adopted daughter developed symptoms of epilepsy as a result of a car accident.. Sometimes it can be congenital . Sometimes it can be the result of a brain injury. I imagine there are cases where an illness could cause it. I suppose there are times when the cause is unknown. There are variations in the type of seizures one can experience. 40 years ago I knew a fellow with severe epilepsy. It was not controlled and he typically had grand mal seizures. Forty years may have seen the development of better medications, but there is great variation in epilepsy. Some cases are easily manageable, some are very difficult. At the time, there was nothing that could control Fred's epilepsy. Because of it he could not drive or hold a job. If Fields' case is stable and well controlled, I don't see any reason why it would mess up his chances for a solid career.