BigAl2526

He's a bit slow for a pure safety, and Buffalo really likes the young safeties on the team, particularly Damar Hamlin and Josh Thomas. They have decent size and are very athletic. With Poyer and Hyde anchoring the middle, Buffalo has had the luxury of taking the time to develop these guys. Jaquan Johnson is probably a bit too limited to be in the long term plans as a starter.

I didn't hate the pick to begin with, but as I hear more, I feel even more comfortable with it.

ABC didn't say a single word about either Bills pick this evening. If there was some pre-draft hype about a player, they'll talk about him. Otherwise they're too busy having guest stars banter with the host and commentators.

Good to hear from you, Spags. Comic relief is always welcome. The Jets had a great first round. They should have, with 3 first round picks, 2 of them in the top 10 of the draft, and Houston giving them an absolute gift by picking Stingley as the first CB off the board. Here's the thing. The Jets were a bad team last season. It's going to take them more than one offseason of good drafting and smart free agent signings to put together a solid franchise. We'll see if Saleh has it in him to make the Jets a serious competitor.

I'm actually shocked to hear that there was that close to a consensus among NFL teams on who the top 23 players in the draft were.

I did not see the terms of the trade, so I went through Draft Tek's running 7 round computer projection of the draft that is updated after every pick. I don't know if there are any future implications for the trade, but in the latest simulation, Buffalo has no 4th round pick. The Bills appear to have given of a 4th round pick to move up. I don't know whether or not Buffalo might get some latte round throw in pick in 2023.

Obviously, traits were important to Beane in this pick. Elam is long, fast and quick. Beane must be assuming Buffalo can coach up his deficiencies in tackling and his tendency to take some penalties due to his aggressiveness in coverage. My biggest question is why Beane thought a trade was necessary to move ahead of Dallas. Nobody I saw ever suggested Dallas was going to draft a CB. We'll probably have to wait and see if any rumors emerge to explain it. In any case, is obvious that Buffalo's preference for Elam over Kyler Gordon and Andrew Booth had to be pretty strong to drive the trade.

Hindsight is 20/20. In this case, it supports me. Jameson Williams and Garett Wison are long gone when Buffalo picks.

There's been a recent run of Breece Hall to Buffalo projections lately. I'll bet it's way over 4 by now.

Williams and Willson are almost guaranteed to be gone before Buffalo picks. They would have to drop at least into the high teens before Buffalo would consider a trade IMO. There is a very slim chance Treylon Burkes drops. He will be a good receiver in the NFL. I'm not sure how Buffalo would value a big physical receiver who has speed on film, but ran a 4.55 at the combine. It seems to me that Buffalo might be a bit concerned that they really don't have elite speed at WR outside of one guy buried on the depth chart (Stevenson). Watson is intriguing. Virtually all mock drafts have him going later than 25, from the very end of the first round to somewhere in the top half of the second round. I would absolutely consider him after a trade down.

Personally, I think the only receiver with the kind of skill set and athleticism to compel Beane to make him the pick is Jameson Williams, and I don't see him dropping. Dotson is the most likely to drop. He has the speed the Bills would covet for a Josh Allen target. He's also a good route runner with great hands. His size means he's not likely to be a full time outside receiver. I wouldn't mind Dotson, but with the limit imposed by his size, I question whether he gives Beane enough reasons to pick him. I think as an option he would be well down on the list.

An athletic tight end is one of the most realistic possibilities. Dawson Knox offers the additional advantage of having played QB.

No GM ought to be tied into a single strategy for approaching the first round. Lots of teams want to trade down this year, so there would be opportunities to trade up for sure. But the reason so many teams want to trade is the number of question marks surrounding to top players. That leads to value issues. Beane is certainly willing to trade up for the right player, but he won't do it just to do it. Last year is evidence of that. The real value in this draft is probably rounds 2 and three, and those are the picks you'd have to part with if you want to trade up.

The problem is, every QB in the draft has at least one significant flaw. There are at least 4 teams that need QBs badly, probably more, but teams may not see a particular advantage to drafting a QB in round one versus waiting a bit. It ultimately depends on how many GMs are going to be seduced by need versus being faithful to pest player available.

I think the odds of any scenario I listed are less than 50/50, even picking cornerback. That is still the most likely outcome of the draft. The thing that might make drafting Breece Hall more likely would be a run on CBs, leaving options Beane doesn't like or those that represent too much of a reach. The odds would be boosted further by a poor market for trying to trade down. As you have noted, this looks like a draft where a lot more teams are wanting to trade down than want to trade up.

That makes some sense. It may be that the contract cost will drop enough to make it worth the wait. Maybe a one year prove it deal is in the cards.

I'm not one to make a lot of big, bold predictions for the draft, and while I follow the various mock drafts, I almost never create a mock myself. However, I do have some thoughts about how the Bills will handle this draft. They are: 1. The Bills are not likely to move up far in this draft. It simply costs too much unless they are able to package #25 with player on their roster, and those kinds of trades are very rare. 2. Beane looks for player traits over need in the draft, but doesn't ignore need altogether. The Bills have only one of what I would call an acute need - cornerback. 3. There is likely to be a relative lack of high impact elite players left in the first round when the Bills pick. Tyler Linderbaum may be around, but his position limits the level of his impact, and his size makes him a bit of a question mark for any team not running a pure zone blocking system. Breece Hall certainly qualifies as a potential high impact player, but there is that axiom about not picking a running back in round one. I don't rule out Hall as the Bills' pick, but it's not the only possibility. On defense, besides cornerbacks, there are a handful of players that might be considered a reasonable value at that point. The only elite talent who might fall could be Devonte Wyatt. Whether Buffalo would consider Wyatt would depend on whatever due diligence they do with respect his alleged off field activities. Some other names who may be available are Dean, Karlaftis, Hill and Ojabo. There are reasons to pass on any of them. On offense, outside of Breece Hall, maybe Dotson will be available, Zion Johnson and/or Kenyon Green, Trey McBride (if the Bills think he's a first round value) and various QBs. I don't think anybody believes Buffalo is going to pick a QB. Among CBs, the first two on most pundit's boards will be gone. The next group varies on its members depending on who is doing the evaluating. Trent McDuffie has the production and experience, but faces questions about size and arm length. Some like Booth. Some like Gordon. some like Elam. Putting all that together, and stopping short of a prediction. Here are the possible outcomes for the Bills from most likely to least likely: 1. Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts a cornerback. take your pick (other than Sauce Garner and Derek Stingley who aren't reasonable) 2. Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts Breece Hall. 3. Trade down either to the bottom of the first or the top 3rd of the second round. Buffalo could target a RB or CB after the trade down too. 4. Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts an interior offensive lineman. 5. Buffalo trades up. I couldn't guess the actual trade, but I think #15 -#20 might be a reasonable target range. 6. Devonte Wyatt drops and Buffalo decides his off field issue is not a deal breaker. I know we've torn apart the upcoming draft about every possible way, but I haven't seen it approached the exact way. So what are your assumptions and what doo you think are the possible outcomes of round one for Buffalo.

A long time ago the same was said about another cornerback, Dion Sanders. Elam has some elite traits. He would not be my first choice in the draft, but Elam's shortcomings are in areas that I think are coachable, and I have a lot of respect for Buffalo's coaching staff. I also think Tre White could be a pretty good mentor for him.

George Karlaftis

Basically, it was just a matter of getting the cap room cleared.

Quite a few mocks lately have McDuffie going before the Bills pick, including too New England. That would be goodnews for me if it happens. I would much prefer Andrew Booth, and I think I could live with Kaiir Elam

Sorry. I didn't sleep well last night. Steeler Nation Report Sportzstorm report It is true that most stories are drawing from Charlie Campbell's (of Walter Football) report that initially came from his coverage at the combine.

Here's an article about the Steelers taking Wyatt off their board. The same article has this quote, "But according to reports NFL teams have found through their own sources 3 other cases of domestic violence linked to Wyatt." Unfortunately, it does not specify a source for those reports, and it's possible their source is Walter Football.

Did you read through the Walter Football article? It's right there in the text. I'm not a huge fan of Walter Football's draft "insight," but there's nothing wrong with his reporting.

What part of "Repeated Domestic Violence" did you not understand. That was the title of the Walter Football article for which there was a link on the front page. Specifically, the article points out 3 additional incidents that private detectives uncovered when they researched Wyatt on behalf of a number of NFL teams. The article did not say whether or not there were arrests in those cases, but teams don't need arrests to decide they don't want him on their draft boards. The article states several teams have done so.