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jahnyc

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Everything posted by jahnyc

  1. Whether or not the debt gets syndicated, the debt service (and rates) will remain the same. If the Bills are not particularly profitable now, they will not be able to meet any new significant debt obligations.
  2. Sorry, can't do a link, but Peter King thinks some team will pay Fletcher $6 million per year. He adds that his "upset special for a no-name guy who will get the richest: Buffalo defensive end Chris Kelsay." I don't even want to think about the kind of dollars that Clements will be getting. With crazy amounts to be spent in free agency this year, what a terrible lack of planning not to have re-signed Clements a long time ago and to announce a cash to cap strategy for this year.
  3. I can understand why the Bills would entertain a trade for WM. He has underperformed (reaons not entirely clear) and he wants a new contract with significant money. The problem is that he is coming off of a mediocre season, he will be a free agent after the season, and now our interest in possibly trading WM is public. In other words, our bargaining position is not particularly strong and I doubt that the Bills will get good value for WM. The bigger problem: another big hole to fill with limited options and significant financial constraints. Moreover, free agency does not seem to be a viable option and it is a weak year for RBs in the draft. I like Marv, but I am beginning to feel like the Bills are chasing their tail. I have doubts that a rookie RB will be an improvement over WM. Same with CB (if it is a rookie or Youboty) and middle linebacker (if it is a rookie or Crowell). I know that free agency is always a possibility, but with our self-imposed financial constraints and the lack of quality players available at CB or inside LB, I don't see Bills successfully filling their holes with players that will equal or exceed the play of the players that they will be losing. I am also concerned that Jauron seems genuinely concerned about losing Clements. The Bills cannot always be in the position of building for the future. Some poor planning and decisions (not extending Clements a couple of years ago (instead extending McGee), drafting McGahee, letting Pat Williams leave) have resulted in the Bills current state of mediocrity. If the Bills really want to stop this cycle, they need to step up and hold on to their key players. Re-signing Clements would be a start.
  4. I think that if McGahee plays out his contract and becomes a free agent, it is likely he will leave. Look at Fletcher, who is a strong character type of player, and his anger at the Bills for forcing him to play out his contract. McGahee seems to have, at best, mixed feelings about playing in Buffalo and for the Buffalo Bills. If McGahee becomes a free agent, he will go to the highest bidder. It will not be the Bills.
  5. After watching the "presser" on the Bills website, I would note the following (trying not to repeat the many posts already on the subject): 1. Marv made a good point about the o-line: some big plays, but no consistency. The Bills had trouble running the ball all year, particularly in short yardage situations. Based on what he said, I have the feeling from Marv that the Bills will try to upgrade the o-line in free agency rather than the draft. They want an immediate contribution. He said few rookies can come in and play on the o-line and that the staff likes Butler, Merz and Pennington. 2. If the Bills will be spending $30 million this offseason, I doubt any will be allocated to a new contract for McGahee. They are going to make him play out the final year of his contract. I also doubt the Bills will extend any other players this offseason. 3. Many questions regarding cash to cap. If they cut Spikes, Holcomb and others, will cap savings be added to amounts available for use? If the Bills sign a free agent and pay guaranteed roster bonuses in 2007 and 2008, will they count both bonuses or only the 2007 bonus for purposes of this year's available amount? 4. If the Bills adhere to this cash to cap concept, they will be so far under the cap in coming years, it will be ridiculous. Assuming the cap goes up about $5 million per year and no bonuses to be paid get allocated to future years, you can imagine that our cap space in the future will dwarf our $30 million plus available this year. 5. The $30 million that is available for use will go fast. The Bills have many free agents and many holes to fill. Free agents will receive record deals this year because of the amount of cap space available league wide. This will further reduce our ability to sign quality free agents, because even average players will be getting above average deals.
  6. As I said, we need to see how this plays out (and is implemented). Joesz's email suggests that the Bills really have $50 million to spend, but none of the press coverage seems to support this view. As to staying out of "cap hell," the Bills are more than $30 million under the cap this year. Even if they paid significant bonuses this offseason and such bonuses were amortized, it would not necessarily mean that they will have cap problems in the future. If the Bills implement cash to cap, then some or all bonus amounts will count towards this year's cap. That means little (if any) of bonus amounts paid will amortized. If the cap goes up next year and there are no amortized bonus amounts counting from the prior year, then the team will be significantly under the cap (again). I am not a cap expert, but I expect that the Bills will use roster bonuses and LTBE incentives to ensure that such amounts count for the current year.
  7. We will see how this plays out, but I suppose the Bills could pay a free agent player a guaranteed base for 2007 instead of a bonus (or structure it in a way that the bonus counts for 2007). This would allow them to count the full amount for 2007 and likely exceed the minimum salary cap number without much difficulty. If the Bills pay a bonus in any particular year, are those amounts required to be amortized over the life of the contract or is it optional?
  8. I usually try to be optimistic, but I think this cash to cap stuff stinks. Plus, since it is being implemented this year without giving effect to prior years, we will be subject to double counting. I appreciate that RW is fighting to keep small market teams competitive, but in the near term, this fighting is going to negatively impact our ability to compete. No way RW is going to spend a lot of money while revenue sharing has yet to be resolved. The funny thing is that I don't think most Bills fans want the Bills to spend wildly. I know that I would like to see the Bills re-sign Clements and Kelsay and then get a guard in free agency. That would make me very happy (but it is not going to happen).
  9. Your reasoning is correct. Unfortunately, my sense is that this cash to cap concept is being implemented for this year without giving effect to prior years. The Bills will end up significantly under this year's cap (and in future years as well) if ithey implement and adhere to cash to cap spending.
  10. I think the intended audience of the "presser" was the nfl hierarchy and big revenue teams. The message is clear: the lack of agreement on revenue sharing among the nfl teams has put the Bills in the position of being unable to compete with regard to signing bonuses to retain players or to sign free agents. The press has picked up on the cash to cap concept and it is highlighted on the Buffalo Bills website. This is no accident. .
  11. Harper (cb) from the Indy Colts.
  12. Nate needs to be re-signed. As Bill from NYC noted, we cannot continue to be the dog chasing its tail (which we would be if Clements leaves and we draft another cb in the first round of the draft). The Bills were a little better than anticipated last year, and there is some hope for next season and the forseeable future. But to continue to improve, the team needs to stop being in the position of having to fill major holes each offseason and instead focus on upgrading the roster and developing depth. If the Bills lose Clements, Fletcher, and Kelsay, there is little chance that between free agency and the draft that the Bills will be able to find replacements or upgrade cb, middle lb, guards, te, right tackle, dt, fb, and wr (a true number 2). A couple of other points: 1. If the Bills don't re-sign Clements, it does not guarantee that they will use the money elsewhere (i.e., guard). 2. An average to above average free agent cb will cost at least $5 million per year. 3. A cb drafted with the number 12 pick in the draft will end up costing the Bills a lot of money in terms of bonus and base salary. 4. The quality of free agents seems to decline each year, because most teams are using cap money to re-sign their own players (Fletcher, Clements and Kelsay will be among the top free agents available this year).
  13. Very good points. I have wondered why the Bills are not more creative with their contracts. They could be pay guaranteed roster bonuses or other guaranteed bonuses to reduce the upfront bonus cost. The problem I have with the current approach is that the Bills will always be filling more holes than most teams and trying to replace their top players, because they will be the ones we cannot afford to re-sign. As you noted, what it means is that we will need to be better than the other teams in finding talent.
  14. From the perspective of the fans, the only reason not to sign Clements would be if the Bills used that money for other free agents while spending close to the full amount available under the cap. With the amount of cap space available, the Bills could re-sign Clements and acquire other top free agents (i.e., Steinbach/Dielman, Graham with room for more). Unfortunately, this would not be consistent with the economic and political realities of the Bills' situation. Actually, the political issues concern me more than anything else. I doubt that RW will re-sign Clements and make a splash in free agency while he is confronting the other owners about the plight of the small market teams and revenue sharing. It is a shame that these issues have not been resolved yet. If they had been resolved, RW may have had more potential freedom in terms of economics and politics to pursue top free agents. It also will be unfortunate if the Bills do not take advantage of their available cap space for reasons related to strategy. They could utilize cap money now to manage future years, providing the team with cap flexibility for the forseeable future.
  15. I also read that Hall fared poorly against Ted Ginn (Ohio State) and D. Jarrett (USC). I watched parts of both games, and if he was the primary cover defender for Ginn and Jarrett, then I would agree with that assessment.
  16. From what I could tell, he seemed to be the best cb during the last college football season, but the reports from the Senior Bowl suggest that he does not have elite speed. I am getting the feeling that there may not be a cb prospect worth taking at #12, but we will see.
  17. Must be a typo. Interesting that Baxter and Henry each received signing bonuses in excess of $10 million. Clements is a superior cb. I would expect with the majority of teams significantly under the cap, he will get at least a $12 million signing bonus (and possibly $15 million or more). Bills need to step up.
  18. I can't see the Patriots letting Asante go. They will either re-sign him, franchise him or get compensation for him. I still don't understand why the Bills agreed to not franchise Nate for a second year.
  19. After I read the article about KC re-signing Gonzalez, my reaction was that the Bills need to re-sign Clements. It will be expensive, but all of our other options are expensive either in terms of dollars or consequences (or both). The Bills do not have a player that is ready to step in and replace Clements and the Bills will overpay for any available free agent cb because of the amount of salary cap space available throughout the league. Would you rather pay Nick Harper four or five million a year or pay Clements seven (particularly when the Bills have the cap space to sign Clements and other free agents)? I would rather pay Clement seven million. The other consideration is that McGee is not a #1 corner and had some problems last year. The Bills could draft a cb in the first round, but the #12 pick will end up with a big contract (and big bonus) and will be unproven. I hope the Bills have learned from their mistake in failing to re-sign Pat Williams. As many have noted, most teams have or will re-sign their own free agent players. In a year with few good free agents available, the Bills will be one of the only teams losing quality players (Clements, Fletcher and Kelsay).
  20. I think Kelsay will be back, but NC and Fletcher will leave. It will be a shame to lose them, particularly NC. He is young, healthy and physical (helps in run support). The Bills may be able to replace Fletcher, who has played extremely well, but the bottom line is that it will be nearly impossible to fill NC's spot with a comparable player next year. This will be a big loss for the Bills.
  21. Dielman would be a great addition, but I think he will be really expensive, particularly since the other highly rated guard to be a free agent (Manuwai), was re-signed by the Jags.
  22. He will go to the highest bidder and will not give the Bills a discount on his services. I believe that as a part of the one-year tender that Clements signed for 2006, language was included providing that the Bills would not franchise Clements in 2007 (i.e., it is memorialized in an agreement).
  23. That sucks. I was hoping to watch the game at home on Sunday.
  24. Clearly, the Bills have enough cap space to re-sign Clements. The question is whether RW/Bills have enough cash to pay the signing bonus. The Bills need to re-sign Clements. He is a very good player, relatively young and there is no player on the roster that is ready to start at cb.
  25. 1. TD's departure (and MM's resignation and the retention of a new head coach and staff) lowered expectations for this year and allowed the Bills to play their rookies and young players, giving them the opportunity to develop. JP and our rookie class of draft picks are the primary beneficiaries. 2. The 2006 draft produced a number of quality players (at least after their first year). Whitner started well, but he has not made many plays over the last half of this season. We will see if Whitner can play to the level expected of a #8 overall pick in the draft in the next number of years. 3. I have a feeling that Ellison will end up being the best pick from the 2006 draft. 4. I wonder if RW will be very restrained in free agency in light of his efforts to get appropriate revenue sharing for small market teams. 5. I think Jauron and his coaches have done a very good job. New schemes (offense and defense), many rookie starters and contributors, some injuries, and yet the team was in most every game and had a shot at the playoffs. Even some players that seemed like busts (JP, Denney, Reed, Parrish) performed better this year. 6. Very disappointing that Clements is a free agent and likely will not re-sign with the Bills. Losing Winfield, Williams and probably Clements really hurts. If we lose Fletcher and Kelsay as well, I can see the Bills drafting heavy on defense again this year, with a CB as the number one pick.
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