
jahnyc
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Everything posted by jahnyc
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Schein is either right or not too far off. I have no expectations that the Bills will be successful this year and I have lost all confidence in the leaders of this organization. I think the best we can hope for is that Gailey can improve the offense (which I think he will, marginally) and that the Bills had a strong draft. The Bills have so many needs at some of the most critical positions (i.e., QB and offensive tackle) that it seems impossible that they can be a playoff caliber team in the near future. When are these situations going to be addressed? Until they are, we will not make the playoffs.
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Troup was a reach, at least according to the so called draft experts, periodicals and the Dallas Cowboys draft board (who had him listed as a fourth rounder). Seems we go through this often, where the draft experts criticize an early pick by the Bills as a reach and the Bills front office wants us to believe that they know better. Unfortunately, over the last number of years, such as with McCargo and Whitner, the draft experts have been the ones to get it right. The Bills also seem to get it wrong when there are more than a few highly rated prospects at a position of need. At this early point in time, it seems that Orapko should have been the pick over Maybin (but we will see). I am hoping for the best with Troup. The problem for me is that the same people who have been evaluating college players (Modrak and his team) for the last 10 years are still doing the evaluating. Hopefully, Nix makes a huge difference, and last year's draft, other than Maybin, appears to have been a strong draft.
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#28 seems about right to me as well. New coaching staff, and we have no idea if they will be better. Still have huge issues at QB, offensive tackle, tight end, and wide receiver, plus the conversion to the 3-4. Everyone rags on the so-called experts, whether it is because they are critical about our front office, our coaching, our draft or our players, but the reality is that they have been right more than they have been wrong about the Bills over the last 10 years.
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Seems we will be okay at ILB with Poz, Davis, Mitchell and one of the rookies. The group of outside linebackers scares me. Can Schobel (if he returns), Kelsay, Maybin, and Ellis play outside in the 3-4? I would be shocked if Kelsay can make the transition. Can any of these guys cover? How many linebackers do 3-4 teams typically keep?
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Interesting that he seems to concede that Spiller will not be an every down player (i.e, between the tackles type of player), but will be used more like Reggie Bush and Percy Harvin are used.
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I think many people underestimated the ramifications of switching to a 3-4 defense this year. The Bills picked a true NT (hopefully) for a 3-4 scheme, a big DE, and two defensive players that will be making the switch to outside LB. With our only real free agent investments made at inside LB (Davis has experience in the 3-4) and Edwards (a DE), it is clear that moving to a 3-4 required the Bills to use a good chunk of available resources (i.e., draft picks and money for free agents) for the switch. Not sure what this means for Kelsay, Ellis, Stroud, Williams, Johnson and Maybin. It is clear that the rebuild of this roster is going to take a long time. The offense is probably in worse shape now than at the start of last season (no Owens, no Reed, Wood still recovering from a broken leg, and Butler retired).
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Why do people get so defensive when the football experts are critical about our drafts? Frankly, they have questionned most of our drafts over the last ten years, and they have been right for the most part. We will know in a couple of years whether this was a good draft. Hopefully Nix knows what he is doing.
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After three rounds, here are some questions/thoughts
jahnyc replied to jahnyc's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I understand not taking a QB in the first three rounds. The value was not there. The problem is that assuming our QB of the future is not currently on the roster, it pushes out for years having a quality starting QB (from the draft) since they need time to develop. In terms of WR, I believe that if S. Johnson or Hardy were ready, they would have played more last year. Doubt they will turn out to be effective players this year. At defensive end, the team must believe that none of Stroud, Johnson or Williams is the answer with the acquisition of Edwards in free agency and Carrington in the draft. -
After three rounds, here are some questions/thoughts
jahnyc replied to jahnyc's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Even with a very strong draft, it seems that we are far away from fielding a team that is playoff caliber. I think we need at least two or three strong drafts to become competitive, particularly if we will not be active in free agency, and that assumes that we can find a quality starting QB at some point. The current draft reminds me that you cannot fill all holes (at least for the current state of the Bills) in one draft. Our first three picks confirm this since only one (the NT) really fills a critical need. Maybe these were the best players available, bu the huge holes remain. -
Nix has a good plan and its coming together
jahnyc replied to DarthICE's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
What are you talking about? Where do you see that I mentioned Kiper? This draft cannot be judged for at least two years from now. Please stop giving Nix credit for a great draft so far. -
1. I assume that Edwards, Stroud, Johnson and Carrington are our defensive ends. Does this mean that Schobel (if he returns), Kelsay, Maybin, Ellis and maybe Mitchell are our outside linebackers? Can any of these guys play outside linebacker? So far, no outside linebackers have been drafted by the Bills. 2. At DT, is McCargo going to be back? I assume we will have some 4-3 looks at times, but does he fit into our plans? Why not cut him now? 3. What is the plan at offensive tackle? You cannot expect a fourth rounder or lower round pick to come in and start. Does this mean that Cornell Green is likely to start? That will be unfortunate. Worse will be if the Bills start Bell at LT this season. I hope a trade is in the works, otherwise this will be a disaster (as we learned last year). 4. At guard, who are going to be the back-ups? With no guarantee that Wood will be back before the beginning of the season (at full strength), how can we not have someone who can start if needed and otherwise be a back-up guard? 5. Still surprised that Lynch was not traded before the Spiller pick. Must be that on one is interested in him. I think keeping Lynch will create an unhealthy dynamic among the running backs. 6. Does anyone think that Hardy can be a number two or that Johnson is ready to play slot? Very worried about WR. How does Parrish fit in? 7. Looks like we need to wait another year for a QB. Bad news, since QBs take time to develop.
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There is a reason that high first round picks are used on QBs and left tackles. Sure it is possible that we will find a QB and some offensive tackles in the fourth round or later this year, but it is very unlikely that they will contribute this year (or next year). It is also unlikely that the Bills would fill these needs in free agency since we will not pay for top free agents, which leaves the draft as our only source to fill needs. What this means is that the Bills will be looking again for a QB and OT help in next year's draft. Unfortunately, even if we finish with a terrible record, we may not be able to fill all of our needs next year either.
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Nix has a good plan and its coming together
jahnyc replied to DarthICE's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Who says that the Bills drafted the best guy in the draft to hold ground and maintin his gap? This guy was rated at best a third round prospect. You are giving Nix way too much credit at this point. We will see in a couple of years if he made the right decisions. -
I really do not understand this. Who is going to play at LT? Our o-line is the worst in the NFL, and we have done nothing to improve it in free agency or in the draft (please, Cornell Green is not an upgrade and we lost Butler to retirement, overall, a net loss). How can this be?
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Conceptually, I agree with taking the best player available. I am not sure it makes sense in this context when you have two quality running backs and such significant needs at so many positions. Granted, Lynch could have another incident at any time and face a one year suspension, but the incremental value beween Lynch/Jackson and Spiller is likely much lower when compared to other opportunities to significantly improve a position (i.e., Bell versus a player like Davis or Buluga).
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Seems like things have not changed. The Bills have the worst group of o-linemen, tight ends and wide receivers in the league. They also do not have a NT. So they draft a running back who may only be a third down back with the ninth overall pick. So now they have three starting caliber rbs and everyone knows that they will need to trade or release Lynch. If they were going to take Spiller, why didn't they trade Lynch before the pick? The Bills have no leverage now, particularly since Detroit and San Diego traded up to take running backs. This is poor planning. The insane part of this is that they were reportedly trying to put together a package to pick Tebow. With so many needs, they were going to trade picks to move up to take a guy who may never develop into a qb (and if he does, it could take years). I really don't get it. By the way, Spiller seems like a really good guy from all reports, but boy did he look sad when the Bills selected him.
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Well, I guess this means that the NFL and the networks expect the Bills to be a very bad team this year.
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I hope they don't do anything foolish, which has happened too frequently in the last number of drafts. Please do not trade up. If anything, we should be trading down for more picks. Please do not pick players that need to be converted to a position they have never played before. Please pick players that can play immediately at positions where we have a need. Some free advice: no cornerbacks or safeties early in the draft; draft a LT that can start now; draft a NT that can start now; draft another offensive tackle and guard for depth; draft an outside linebacker that can play in the 3-4 and a wide receiver with potential.
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I expected the Bills to rank even lower, and they will if Schobel retires. I also would bet that they will release at least one or two higher priced veterans before the start of the season (as they always do). I hope that "building through the draft" is not code for being cheap and not spending money on players. After all, even when we acquired free agents in the past, the mantra was always to build primarily through the draft.
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The Defense is Going to Struggle Big Time
jahnyc replied to box0life's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I agree with the original post, and I am very concerned about the defense (maybe more than the tragedy that is our offense) going into this season. Why does anyone assume that Kelsay, Maybin or Schobel (if he returns) can play outside linebacker in the 3-4? Maybin worries me the most. He showed nothing in his rookie year, and now is being asked to become an outside linebacker, a role (and a scheme) he has never played in before. Also, can Stroud, Williams and Johnson be effective as defensive ends? I have my doubts. I will not bring up the nose tackle situation, because we do not have a starter on the roster. One last point. I am not a fan of the view that we need to hit rock bottom and have a terrible season before we can again rise from the ashes. Miami had terrible personnel a few years ago, hired a new coach and implemented a new 3-4 scheme. They had some success immediately. Even if the Bills have a terrible season and get some high picks, there is no guarantee that they will draft with better success. Look at the difficulty Detroit and St. Louis are having turning things around after a number of years of high picks. Finally, Buffalo cannot afford a deterioration of fan support resulting from an uncompetitive team which would provide the NFL and the owners an excuse to move the franchise to another city. -
I think that throwing money at free agents can work, if you make the right decisions (i.e., the talent evaluators do their job). The problem with the Bills has been that their free agent acquisitions have been atrocious, not that they have acquired free agents. I also don't believe that the cap will be a problem for the teams that are spending now. If the cap is reinstated (and this is a big if), I would expect that there is some kind of allowance for free agent activity from 2010. I would also think that the really smart teams (assuming they can afford to do so) are strucuturing their free agent contracts to allocate more compensation to this year (an uncapped year) than future years.
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It seems pretty clear to me that the Bills are not going to be competitive next year, partly because they are, for the most part, sitting out free agency. Right now, the Bills have the worst group of QBs, offensive tackles, nose tackles and outside linebackers (for the 3-4) in the NFL. In addition, other than Evans, our group of WRs is terrible. The Bills have more holes than they can possibly fill in one draft, both in terms of starters and depth. I love the Bills, and I will watch every game no matter what, but the potential for a really bad season is significant.
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Bucs HC defends lack of free agent signings
jahnyc replied to BillsVet's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The problem with our free agent signings over the last number of years is not that we signed free agents, but that we signed the wrong free agents and overpaid for them. We need better talent evaluation, whether it is for the draft or available free agents. We will need to sign some free agents to compete next year, whether they are depth or starters. We do not have enough draft picks to fill all of our needs. -
Yikes. Seems like another crummy move and does seem very odd given his age, propensity for penalties and run-ins with the law. Moreover, since when do the Bills pay that kind of money for a back up tackle? This guy will be a starter. Has anything really changed at OBD? It seems that every move we make gets questionned, usually for good reason.
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I don't care how we rebuild, as long as the team has success (and soon). It has been 10 years since we made the playoffs, and I don't want to wait another three or four years. If signing free agents will help us become competitive and strong sooner rather than later, go ahead. If the front office can build through the draft quickly, great. Teams have been successful building through the draft, and teams have been successful building through the draft and free agency. Just start winning, please.