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DapperCam

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Posts posted by DapperCam

  1. 28 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

     

    Exactly. The guy wants to talk context but ignores the context when it doesnt suit him.  The receivers did most of the work this game, not Jacksons arm.  Even on some of the game defining deeper throws, it was the receiver making an incredible catch. Jacksons running was still elite and helped keep them in the game though.

     

    pass-chart_JAC323395_2024-REG-1_17255951

     

    Edit: I just realized that you were probably talking about the game last year against 49ers. Im referring to last nights game.


    Yea, I was talking about the 49ers game last year that catapulted him into the default MVP candidate for some reason. His chart in that one shows 4 or 5 passes 10 yards or more down the field which was actually more than I remember. Still the vast majority are dump offs around the LOS.

  2. 2 hours ago, Low Positive said:

    I hate to be negative, but it's not an unreasonable take. They barely made the playoffs last year and actually got significantly worse, at least on paper. When you list out what the team lost this offseason, it's really quite striking:

    • Both safeties
    • One of their leading pass rushers in Floyd
    • #1 WR
    • #2 WR
    • Starting Center

    And at least on paper, every replacement looks like a downgrade. So, 5-12 is not unreasonable. But it's wrong, because 17. 


    If they "barely made the playoffs last year", then so did every team in the AFC except the Ravens lol. The Bills were the #2 seed dude.

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  3. If it's a good price, I'm in favor. One less hole to plug down the line and I think he can be an above average starter for many seasons.

     

    Biggest issues is injuries. His worst season was recovering from off-season back surgery (which is usually very bad for any football player, but especially big heavy guys).

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  4. 2 hours ago, 90sBills said:


    What you saw throughout the game was Rice catching a pass in the middle of a wide open field because the safeties were retreating deep to cover Worthy. KC was missing that speed element to take off the cover last year. Now they have it and are better for their overall team. 


    2 high safety look has been used against the Chiefs for like 3 seasons now. Last season the problem was players dropping passes, not speed. MVS runs sub 4.4 and is plenty fast for the effect you are talking about.

  5. 22 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

     

    Beating the best team in the NFC, with about 300 total yards and 2 TDs with no turnovers isn't exactly pedestrian.  Purdy was the chief MVP competition and fell on his face yes, but Jackson had a solid game against a top defense.  

     

    Allen did himself no favors down the stretch with ugly games against the chargers and patriots, and that weird cowboys game where he didn't have to do anything at all.  


    The stat line looked good, but if you watched the game Jackson didn’t do much at all. He threw short passes around the line of scrimmage and played mistake-free football. I remember thinking at the time he only made a couple passes more than 10 yards down the field the entire game. Both of his TDs were drives started on the 49ers half of the field (one was at the 9 yard line). He also gave up a safety.

     

    He didn’t have a bad game at all, it was just pedestrian. He did what needed to be done, but the win was 100% on the defense forcing turnovers.

  6. 3 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

     

    Here are the following reasons that should be considered. 

    • 28 turnovers (Buffalo) vs. 19 turnovers (Baltimore)
    • 11-6 (Buffalo) vs. 13-4 (Baltimore 13-3 in games started by LJ, he sat week 18).  The 3 losses in games Jackson started were by 3, 7 and 2 points.  
    • Each team had similar total yards, baltimore scored a few more points on the year even with jackson sitting week 18.
    • Buffalo fired their Offensive coordinator mid-season, not good optics.
    • Jackson did not have "help" in the way of pro bowl WRs, and his pro bowl TE was hurt midseason.  They also had a mash list at running back.  0 1000 yard receiver, or 1000 yard rusher.  
    • The last regular season game he played in 2023 (playoffs don't matter for MVP).  They beat miami by 37, and he had 5 TDs and 300+ on 21 passes and another 35 on the ground.  An MVP performance to lock up home-field advantage after beating SF the week before.
    • Adding Jacksons averages to his totals would get him 3908 Passing yards 26/8 and 872 rushing yards with 5 TDs.  That's 4780 yards, and 31 TDs.  From a stat perspective you shouldn't punish him for winning so much that he didn't have to play.  Allen had 4306 and 524 so 4930 and 44 total TDs.  The yardage is similar but allen had 13 more total TDs.  Jackson lost 6 fumbles to 4 for Allen.  Allen threw 18 INTs vs. 7 (projected 8 as i added one for a hypothetical stat projection).  So 14 turnovers vs. 22 for Allen individually.  

     

    So after reading that... with the offenses as a whole having similar yardage and point totals.  Who is inherently biased?  The media?  Or the bills fans who ignore any of the factors above since it doesn't fit their narrative.  


    MVP is a largely narrative driven award and you can see it happen in real-time during the season following the media. Lamar happened to be near the top of the MVP projections along with Purdy, Dak and Allen going into that 49ers game.

     

    The media pushed very hard that it was the game to decide MVP (not sure if just to juice the ratings of a primetime game, or what). We all know that Jackson won (in a fairly pedestrian game by the way…It wasn’t Lamar out there intercepting Purdy). And that was that. Allen and Dak had some okay/good but not great games to end the season and the narrative was finished.

     

    There is a heavy bias in your performances at the end of the season vs the beginning of the season. Allen also had a 5 TD perfect passer rating game vs the Dolphins, it just happened months earlier. That doesn’t work for a nice media narrative. Your strongest performances have to be at the end of the season.

  7. 1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

    I think I'm going to watch this game differently than about any other game I can imagine in years.

     

    I'm really trying to not go in with any pre-conceived notions.  WR's being thin?  Potential problems in the secondary?  Basically, anything past history has taught me, or training camp has taught me, I'm not going to think about. Just observe the game.

     

    I notice that before a game is even played, in the past I would 'think' what I liked, or didn't ilke about the roster and then go into the game looking for things to support my view.  Maybe its because I took a step back and didn't pay attention to camp too much, didn't really watch the preseason games...Not sure exactly why.  But I'm going to just watch the game and have an opinion AFTER the game, not look for things to support an opinion I generated before it.


    I agree with some of the unknowns. For example I was concerned with LBers last year and Bernard was great and Dodson did well also. So maybe by the end of the season Bishop will be starter caliber.

     

    But I feel like I’ve seen enough of Hamlin and Rapp to know what they bring. Also having both starting LBers (if it’s Dorian Williams and Bernard) having a combined 1 year of starting experience is concerning.

  8. Last night is an example where if you just read the stat line you would think Jackson actually had a pretty good game. The truth is he couldn’t seem to complete a pass further than 5 yards down the field the majority of the game. A large chunk of his passing yards and only TD was on a play that was 90% his TE making an incredible play (even the broadcast said the throw only had a 0.3% chance of a TD based on their models). It was actually a pretty bad game for Jackson IMO. Especially on that last drive I’m not sure he even made one good/accurate pass. He is very lucky he didn’t have another INT. I can’t believe the DB dropped that nice pass right into his hands.

     

    On the other hand…

    - His offensive line was terrible. He did a good job to escape pressure.

    - The short passing game seems to have been the game plan.

    - He did well to recognize the defender had his back turned on his big TD play.

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  9. 1 minute ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

    Yea we had a bunch of good officiating luck late in games but also a bunch of offsetting bad luck in others lol. The chiefs don’t seem to have that offsetting negative stuff which is what made that play you’re talking about so jarring.

     

    we got absolutely robbed against Philly that might’ve been the most suspiciously officiated game of the year  


    Mahomes was so surprised by being on the wrong side of a bad luck play he short circuited and had a meltdown on the sideline after the game.

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