I think there are basically 3 scenarios:
Bills win the division and get the #2 seed. Allen will get MVP.
Dolphins win the last 2 games, and win the division and #1 seed. Tua will get MVP.
All other scenarios, Allen deserves it based on stats but is a wild card. CMC doesn't quite have the stats for a skill player. Purdy can't shake the system QB label. Lamar wins by default and is the weakest winner since that kicker won in the 80s.