GASabresIUFan

I love all the revisionists on DeJean. The bills were never drafting a CB last year with their first pick. They had Benford and Douglas. They invested in Elam with a premium pick. They had a critical need at WR and S and that is what drafted. As to the DL. I’d add a Crosby or Garrett. I’d cut Miller’s pay in half and use him as a situational player. I’d trade or cut AJE. I’d then grab a run stuffer with a 2nd rd pick and a CB like DeJean in the 2nd rd. Groot will be so much more effective with a Crosby or Garrett on the other side. It would also improve Oliver’s effectiveness as OLines have to double Garrett or Crosby. A Garrett or Crosby addition should also buy time for Solomon to develop or Beane to find someone in the draft for the long-term.

Why are people here trying to subtract some of our better players. Beane trades excess depth or players who don’t fit or players made expendable by other moves. He isn’t trading Groot. The players who fit his usual criteria are Elam and AJE. The whole point of acquiring someone like Garrett is to balance the line and bring pressure from both sides. Teams will no longer be able to concentrate their blocking schemes to stop Groot. Getting Garrett or Crosby but then trading Groot may save some cap but hurts the value of getting Garrett or Crosby. There are other places to save money.

Apparently defense still wins championships. I think enhancing our Dline is now our top offseason priority.

So close, but no. You are right that Beane has tried to go all in before and it didn't work. Miller got hurt along with Milano and Tre White and there went the opportunity, but I'd almost argue that the Bills are in a better position to try again. We have better depth on the team and a better O Line to protect Josh. Josh is a much more mature player and is willing to utilize his other weapons. We also don't have any prima donna receivers who sulk went they don't get the ball. Garrett, unlike Vonn, is still in his prime and there is a decent CB FA class.

Sounds exactly like a Diggs trade from last season. This is a hard no from me, but there has to be someone (trade or FA) we can acquire who knows how to get open. Pickens?

How about getting a receiver who can get separation and a game wrecking DE? How about getting a veteran corner to bookend with Benford?

We have been dancing around this subject with threads on veteran wide outs (Kupp, Samuel) and veteran edge rushers (Garrett, Crosby). So I ask the somewhat un-spoken question, should Beane and the Bills go all in this off-season? A few reasons why the Bills should go all in. 1) Josh is due a huge raise and a new contract. 2) All the star kids have only one more year on their deals expect Torrence. Benford, Bernard, Shakir, Cook and Groot all need new deals after this coming season 3) Some of our best players are at or nearing 30. Allen, Knox & Taron Johnson will be 29 next season. Dawkins and Milano will be 31. While Allen, Knox and Dawkins should continue to play at a high level, at some point ....... Better to win now. 4) We have a nearly complete roster with nearly all starters and key depth players under contract. 5) We have the ammo to add the talent we need including 10+ draft picks (including 3 premium picks) and the ability to open $40 mill in cap space.

That's a very fair question. I'm a UGA fan and really like Mykel Williams. I'm not sure he is in the same league as Garrett however.

About darn time. He is also the winner of the Art Rooney Sportsmanship award.

There is no question Beane is trying to win a Super Bowl. He wouldn't have signed Miller if he wasn't. That attempt failed after his all-pros in Tre White and Milano got hurt along with Miller to destroy the opportunity Beane tried to create by signing Miller. Once that attempt to get over the top failed, Beane had to reset and he has done a great job of resetting on the fly while keeping the Bills at the top of the AFC heap. Now cap compliant with a blossoming young team, Beane is in a good position to try again to get this team over the top. I don't know if he'll risk all the proposed draft capital to get Myles Garrett, but I think there is a distinct possibility, especially as Garrett has a significant say (limited no trade clause) in where he goes. Beane has never been shy about using his draft picks to make the team better. He used a 1st to get Diggs, a 3rd for Douglas and a 3rd for Cooper. He has also consistently traded excess players to other teams for additional draft capital like Ryan Bates for a 5th. In the draft, he has moved both up and down in the draft to get the capital he wanted or the player he wanted. There is no pattern other than he views draft picks as capital to be spent as needed.

Here are the 2024 starters in the Bills last season acquired through the draft (20 full or spot starters) * (The are also 12 draftees starting or playing significant roles for other NFL teams) 2017 - Dawkins, Milano 2018- Allen, Taron Johnson (Beane's first draft) 2019 - Oliver, Knox 2020 - AJE, Bass 2021 - Rousseau, Brown, Hamlin 2022 - Cook, Bernard, Shakir, Benford 2023 - Torrence, Kincaid, Dorian Williams (spot starter) 2024 - Coleman, Bishop (spot starter) The Bills also played 10 rookies last year, including 8 draftees. Obviously the Draft is critical to building the Bills and maintaining cap integrity. That said, they are kind of in a unique position. The Bills are in win now mode after Beane's two year overhaul has left the Bills, younger, cheaper and in many ways better, although he only has 1 year left on the rookie deals for Rousseau, Cook, Shakir, Benford and Bernard. The Bills can clear 40 mill in cap space with some relatively easy moves and have all but 3 starters under contract. The 3 open jobs are CB (replacing Douglas), WR (replacing Cooper) and S (replacing Hamlin). Bishop is likely taking over for Hamlin, leaving only 2 starting jobs for new players. The Bills also have most of their depth under contract with a few exceptions in Hollins, Gilliam, Ty Johnson, Alec Anderson, Smoot and LS Reid Ferguson. I suspect the Bills want all 6 of the named UFAs back. They have significant draft capital heading into the draft with as many as 10 picks depending on how the compensatory picks are assigned. The bottom line is with a nearly complete roster, 40 mill in potential cap space and 10 draft picks, Beane can afford to go shopping in both the trade market and the FA market to fill the few holes in the roster to try to put his win now roster over the top. Looking at the offseason, the Bills greatest needs are in order 1) Starting CB - Douglas is gone and Elam isn't up to the task - solution - Likely a FA with a draft pick (or 2) for depth 2) Starting Boundary WR - I'd like to see Beane use a premium pick to replace Cooper, but I suspect he'll go a medium priced FA with a WR added from later in the draft. I want Golden or Egbuka if we keep our 1st rd pick. 3) Edge Rusher - I'm actually all in on the Myles Garrett idea, especially if it clears Elam and AJE off the roster as the Athletics' Joe B suggested. We are in win now mode and getting a future HOFer to play opposite of Rousseau changes the dynamic of the defense. 4)Safety depth - Rapp's eventual replacement drafted in the 4th rd of the draft. 5) DT - Need more depth here if the don't believe Carter is the guy to replace Jones long-term So as to the OP question, we are in win now mode and using some of the 10 picks to add good veterans is wise.

The article points out you can realize about the same cap savings by just cutting his pay and keeping the player. I’d much rather cut AJE. Miller at 36 in a depth role is still better than AJE who McD took off the field in passing downs.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6112793/2025/02/05/bills-2025-offseason-roster-salary-cap/ Excellent analysis of the Bills cap situation. Suggests restructuring Miller, Allen, Dawkins and Oliver and some smaller moves gets the Bills to 37 mill in cap space. The Bills will need to add a starter at CB and WR, hopefully bring back Ty Johnson and Hollins and complete the roster. Depending on how Beane adds starters at CB and WR, will greatly influence how much money he has for upgrades on the DL. I now expect Miller to return at half his current cost as a situational pass rusher. One move he didn’t mention in the article is cutting AJE. That yields cap savings and opens a spot for an upgrade.

That's fine, the Bills can add him to the practice squad when he gets cut 3 games into the season for dropping 6 balls.

Arian Smith is a 5-6th rd draft pick. Lots of speed, mediocre route running and terrible hands and I'm writing this as a UGA season ticket holder. He is someone you take a late round flier on and hope it works out. No way a team uses a premium draft pick on him.

I've played around with about 5 of these simulators and can't seem to find one whose rankings are great. Anyone have a suggestion which site has the best rankings?

Ladd McConkey In this draft, Emeka Egbuka.

Which of the mock draft simulator sites has the best player rankings?

True. AJE might not even be a Bill next season. He is part of the problem not the solution. His pressure rate is terrible which is why McD removed him from the field on passing downs.

I don't think any Bills fan is happy with the status of our DL and I think everyone agrees that it needs to be a focus for Beane in the free agency and in the draft. Getting more and consistent pressure is this off-season's biggest priority, but this is a story for another thread.

Which is why he is in the developing category. I never said developing elite. I said developing. I think his ceiling is Higgins or Pittman. If he gets there he will be considered elite. I saw enough this season to make me think that ceiling is still possible. He made some great contested catches and showed the ability to read off Josh at times. Overall I thought his rookie year was good, but not great and as I wrote above, he needs to dedicate himself to getting better.

The guy averaged 19.2 yards per catch as a rookie. That was 4th among all NFL WRs with 40 or more targets.

This is the one area where Beane has truly missed the mark. Oliver and Groot are good players, but not elite. Both maybe "better" if they had better players on the line with them. Beane has invested a fair amount of draft capital on the DL in Harrison Phillips (96th pick in 2018), Oliver (9th in 2019), AJE (54th in 2020), Rousseau (30th in 2021), Basham (61st in 2021), & Carter (95th overall in 2024). Only Basham is a true bust. Phillips has become a very good player for the Vikings. AJE continues to disappoint and should be replaced.

The definition of elite is subjective. Sure All-pro and Pro Bowl nods are good indicators if a player is considered elite, but they also, especially the Pro Bowl, tend to be a little bit like popularity contests. For example, take Spencer Brown, the guy allowed 1 sack all season and only 2 pressures. That's it. IMHO those are the stats of an elite tackle, despite him not being recognized as such by PFF grading system or selected for the Pro Bowl. The reason I created this thread is that this is an important discussion and it was prompted by a comment in another thread that Beane has not drafted any elite players for the defense. My initial reaction to that statement was that it simply wasn't true, but generally speaking, the comment does have some merit. The only Beane drafted defenders I'd consider elite are Taron Johnson and Christian Benford. So who are the elite Bills? 1) Josh Allen - Obviously. IMHO he is the best QB in football, including Mahomes, but he lacks enough good WRs to make him unstoppable 2) James Cook - If the Chiefs game didn't solidify his elite status for even the I hate RBs crowd, I don't know what will. 3) Dion Dawkins - Multi-time Pro Bowler. He is one of the best tackles in football 4) Spencer Brown - He has improved every year in the NFL and this season was spectacular. 5) Christian Benford - Was 5th overall in PFF grading system out of 223 DBs. 6) Taron Johnson - Arguably one of the best 2 or 3 slot corners in the NFL. 7) Khalil Shakir - Like Brown & Cook, has improved every year. 2nd in the NFL in YAC this past season. 8.) Matt Milano - When healthy he is one of the best LBs in football. Improved every game this season once he finally became mostly healthy. I think the elite game is still there. Developing players 1) Terrel Bernard - 100+ tackles 2 straight seasons, but fell off 2023 numbers due to injuries. I wish would McD to use him more on the pass rush. 2) O'Cyrus Torrence - How many guys start 33 of their 1st 34 games on the Oline coming right out school? No sacks allowed this past season. 3) Dalton Kincaid - Has all the skills to be an elite pass catching TE. Knee injuries hampered this past season. Lets see how he recovers. 4) Keon Coleman - Has the size and hands to be a good to excellent physical boundary receiver like a Higgins or Pittman, but needs to be more dedicated to get to that level. 5) McGovern - 1st time center did an elite job this season. Let's see how year 2 goes. Very Good but not great 1) Rousseau - I like Groot a great deal, but he very inconsistent game to game. Part of that is how the Bills have utilized him, but his motor isn't always on 2) Oliver - Much like Rousseau, inconsistent motor. We have all seen him dominate, but also seen him disappear. So is this enough "elite" talent to win a Super Bowl? I think it is with some smart additions at WR, DL and another good CB. Remember the Bills were likely one Kincaid catch away from being in the Super Bowl this season without an adequate defense.

Why? Chris Jones was a 2nd rd pick. He wasn’t an all-pro as a rookie but he made an immediate impact. Admittedly a DE/edge drafted 30th maybe a rotational player year one, but considering our struggles to get to the QB, have a good rotational player would be an immediate upgrade.