GASabresIUFan

After reading all the negative comments on Beane's drafting, I decided to compare Beane's draft slot to Mel Kiper's lists for that season. I recently saw a study that named Kiper the best and most consistent draft evaluator. So here are our top 2 round draft picks and Kiper's rankings. Walter Football was 2nd. 2018 1-7 Allen - Kiper 5 2018 1-16 Edmunds - Kiper 11 2019 1-9 Oliver - Kiper 9 2019 2-38 Ford - Kiper 22 2020 2-54 Epenesa - Kiper 45 2021 1-30 Rousseau - Kiper 39 FYI Groot is 3rd in his draft class in sacks behind Parsons (12th overall) & Paye (21st overall) Paye only has 1.5 more sacks than Groot. 2021 2-61 Bashman - Kiper 59 2022 1-23 Elam - Kiper 41 - First real reach by Beane and he got burned 2022 2-63 Cook - Kiper 99 - 2nd reach and Beane knocks it out of the park 2023 1-25 Kincaid - Kiper 19 2023 2-59 Torrence - Kiper 61 2024 2-33 Coleman - Kiper 33 2024 2-60 Bishop - Kiper 61 Beane Draft steals using Kiper's rankings (I didn't through every pick) 2022 5-148 Shakir - Kiper 81 2021 3-93 Brown - Kiper 72 From looking at the picks in the top 2 rounds, it's pretty clear that Beane rarely reaches and that most of his evaluations have been solid. Sometimes the physical tools don't match the on field performance in the NFL like Ford and Basham. You can B word and moan about certain picks, but for most part Beane hasn't picked anyone from left field. Even Elam had a 1st rd grade from some evaluators (for example PFF had him 29th). The truth Beane has done a good job early and an excellent job from the 3rd rd on. It's hard to hit HRs when you are drafting in the last 3rd of the 1st rd.

Does the fact he's from WNY (Jamestown) influence anyone's opinion?

I agree. I'm not trading with the Chiefs unless I get an significant overpay like my example. I would give them back a 6th to make it look better. Which is why I want to keep the 2 2nds. We also need a WR and CB.

I'm ok with trading 2025 and 2026 1sts for Garrett. However, I'm not all the interested in giving up either of the 2 2nd rd picks given our needs at WR, CB, and S.

BUF (Run of ProFootballnetwork.com) 30. Shemar Stewart EDGE Texas A&M 56. Maxwell Hairston CB Kentucky 62. Isaiah Bond WR Texas 108. Sebastian Castro S Iowa 131. Quincy Riley CB Louisville 171. J.J. Pegues DT Ole Miss 175. Smael Mondon Jr. LB Georgia 179. Trevor Etienne RB Georgia 181. Xavier Truss OG Georgia 208. Brady Cook QB Missouri If this is how the draft worked out I'd be thrilled. I'm a little biased toward the SEC because that is who I've seen play the most. That said, the first 3 picks are all potential starters. Castro gives depth at S. Pegues is a huge run stopping DT who can still get to the QB - Jones' eventual replacement. Riley might end up being better than Hairston and is a ball hawk. Mondon is a very good overall linebacker and could develop into Milano's replacement. Etienne would be the perfect 3rd down back if Johnson leaves. He has speed and good hands. Truss fills a need as OG depth and was a multi year starter at UGA. Cook is an athletic big QB. Sound familiar?

Of course it would depend on who is available, but generally any team would make this deal. The draft chart says 30 is worth 620 points. 31 is worth 600 and 95 is worth (KC actually now has 95 not 96) 120 points. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

So if KC offered 31 and 96 for 30 you wouldn't make the deal even though the Bills don't have a 3rd rd pick?

Good video. Shows that their is depth in this draft at CB, DE, and DT that will be available to us in the 2nd rd. Kyle Williams looks very interesting as a 3rd/4th rd WR who might start immediately.

You do realize what those players have in common? They were defensive standouts on UGAs National Champion Teams. In fact the Eagles GM added Dean and Kelee Ringo from those teams. He also has 4 Bama players including Hurts and D. Smith who all have National Championship pedigrees. Noticing a trend? Their GM drafts the best players from the best college football teams. Guys who know how to win and expect to win. That doesn't mean you can't win without such players, but it certainly helps. For example: Who was the best Bills player against KC in the playoffs? James Cook, who won 2 National Championship while at Georgia. We need more players like this. The good news for Buffalo is that Ohio St has a ton of players in this draft including guys at positions of need and who could be reasonable available when we draft, assuming no Garrett trade. Using ESPN's composite rankings: Tyleik Williams (DT) is ranked 20th, WR Emeka Egbuka is 29th, Edge Rusher JT Tuimoloau is 58th, and Edge Rusher Jack Sawyer is 78th. All of these guys would make the Bills better at positions of need. If we want the next Cooper DeJean, my vote is for Texas's Jahdae Barron (42nd in ESPN's rankings, but higher in others).

You do realize he was playing with a torn PCL this season? You do realize that Josh targeted Kincaid 91 times as a rookie (Dalton caught 80% of his targets as a rookie). The amount of targets increased when Brady became the OC. Add Knox’s 36 targets and Morris’ 3, that’s 130 targets to TEs in 2023. In 2024, Kincaid was Josh’s 2nd most popular target at 75 and Josh threw to TEs 118 times overall. Sorry your argument that Josh doesn’t throw to TEs doesn’t hold up.

I love all the revisionists on DeJean. The bills were never drafting a CB last year with their first pick. They had Benford and Douglas. They invested in Elam with a premium pick. They had a critical need at WR and S and that is what drafted. As to the DL. I’d add a Crosby or Garrett. I’d cut Miller’s pay in half and use him as a situational player. I’d trade or cut AJE. I’d then grab a run stuffer with a 2nd rd pick and a CB like DeJean in the 2nd rd. Groot will be so much more effective with a Crosby or Garrett on the other side. It would also improve Oliver’s effectiveness as OLines have to double Garrett or Crosby. A Garrett or Crosby addition should also buy time for Solomon to develop or Beane to find someone in the draft for the long-term.

Why are people here trying to subtract some of our better players. Beane trades excess depth or players who don’t fit or players made expendable by other moves. He isn’t trading Groot. The players who fit his usual criteria are Elam and AJE. The whole point of acquiring someone like Garrett is to balance the line and bring pressure from both sides. Teams will no longer be able to concentrate their blocking schemes to stop Groot. Getting Garrett or Crosby but then trading Groot may save some cap but hurts the value of getting Garrett or Crosby. There are other places to save money.

Apparently defense still wins championships. I think enhancing our Dline is now our top offseason priority.

So close, but no. You are right that Beane has tried to go all in before and it didn't work. Miller got hurt along with Milano and Tre White and there went the opportunity, but I'd almost argue that the Bills are in a better position to try again. We have better depth on the team and a better O Line to protect Josh. Josh is a much more mature player and is willing to utilize his other weapons. We also don't have any prima donna receivers who sulk went they don't get the ball. Garrett, unlike Vonn, is still in his prime and there is a decent CB FA class.

Sounds exactly like a Diggs trade from last season. This is a hard no from me, but there has to be someone (trade or FA) we can acquire who knows how to get open. Pickens?

How about getting a receiver who can get separation and a game wrecking DE? How about getting a veteran corner to bookend with Benford?

We have been dancing around this subject with threads on veteran wide outs (Kupp, Samuel) and veteran edge rushers (Garrett, Crosby). So I ask the somewhat un-spoken question, should Beane and the Bills go all in this off-season? A few reasons why the Bills should go all in. 1) Josh is due a huge raise and a new contract. 2) All the star kids have only one more year on their deals expect Torrence. Benford, Bernard, Shakir, Cook and Groot all need new deals after this coming season 3) Some of our best players are at or nearing 30. Allen, Knox & Taron Johnson will be 29 next season. Dawkins and Milano will be 31. While Allen, Knox and Dawkins should continue to play at a high level, at some point ....... Better to win now. 4) We have a nearly complete roster with nearly all starters and key depth players under contract. 5) We have the ammo to add the talent we need including 10+ draft picks (including 3 premium picks) and the ability to open $40 mill in cap space.

That's a very fair question. I'm a UGA fan and really like Mykel Williams. I'm not sure he is in the same league as Garrett however.

About darn time. He is also the winner of the Art Rooney Sportsmanship award.

There is no question Beane is trying to win a Super Bowl. He wouldn't have signed Miller if he wasn't. That attempt failed after his all-pros in Tre White and Milano got hurt along with Miller to destroy the opportunity Beane tried to create by signing Miller. Once that attempt to get over the top failed, Beane had to reset and he has done a great job of resetting on the fly while keeping the Bills at the top of the AFC heap. Now cap compliant with a blossoming young team, Beane is in a good position to try again to get this team over the top. I don't know if he'll risk all the proposed draft capital to get Myles Garrett, but I think there is a distinct possibility, especially as Garrett has a significant say (limited no trade clause) in where he goes. Beane has never been shy about using his draft picks to make the team better. He used a 1st to get Diggs, a 3rd for Douglas and a 3rd for Cooper. He has also consistently traded excess players to other teams for additional draft capital like Ryan Bates for a 5th. In the draft, he has moved both up and down in the draft to get the capital he wanted or the player he wanted. There is no pattern other than he views draft picks as capital to be spent as needed.

Here are the 2024 starters in the Bills last season acquired through the draft (20 full or spot starters) * (The are also 12 draftees starting or playing significant roles for other NFL teams) 2017 - Dawkins, Milano 2018- Allen, Taron Johnson (Beane's first draft) 2019 - Oliver, Knox 2020 - AJE, Bass 2021 - Rousseau, Brown, Hamlin 2022 - Cook, Bernard, Shakir, Benford 2023 - Torrence, Kincaid, Dorian Williams (spot starter) 2024 - Coleman, Bishop (spot starter) The Bills also played 10 rookies last year, including 8 draftees. Obviously the Draft is critical to building the Bills and maintaining cap integrity. That said, they are kind of in a unique position. The Bills are in win now mode after Beane's two year overhaul has left the Bills, younger, cheaper and in many ways better, although he only has 1 year left on the rookie deals for Rousseau, Cook, Shakir, Benford and Bernard. The Bills can clear 40 mill in cap space with some relatively easy moves and have all but 3 starters under contract. The 3 open jobs are CB (replacing Douglas), WR (replacing Cooper) and S (replacing Hamlin). Bishop is likely taking over for Hamlin, leaving only 2 starting jobs for new players. The Bills also have most of their depth under contract with a few exceptions in Hollins, Gilliam, Ty Johnson, Alec Anderson, Smoot and LS Reid Ferguson. I suspect the Bills want all 6 of the named UFAs back. They have significant draft capital heading into the draft with as many as 10 picks depending on how the compensatory picks are assigned. The bottom line is with a nearly complete roster, 40 mill in potential cap space and 10 draft picks, Beane can afford to go shopping in both the trade market and the FA market to fill the few holes in the roster to try to put his win now roster over the top. Looking at the offseason, the Bills greatest needs are in order 1) Starting CB - Douglas is gone and Elam isn't up to the task - solution - Likely a FA with a draft pick (or 2) for depth 2) Starting Boundary WR - I'd like to see Beane use a premium pick to replace Cooper, but I suspect he'll go a medium priced FA with a WR added from later in the draft. I want Golden or Egbuka if we keep our 1st rd pick. 3) Edge Rusher - I'm actually all in on the Myles Garrett idea, especially if it clears Elam and AJE off the roster as the Athletics' Joe B suggested. We are in win now mode and getting a future HOFer to play opposite of Rousseau changes the dynamic of the defense. 4)Safety depth - Rapp's eventual replacement drafted in the 4th rd of the draft. 5) DT - Need more depth here if the don't believe Carter is the guy to replace Jones long-term So as to the OP question, we are in win now mode and using some of the 10 picks to add good veterans is wise.

The article points out you can realize about the same cap savings by just cutting his pay and keeping the player. I’d much rather cut AJE. Miller at 36 in a depth role is still better than AJE who McD took off the field in passing downs.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6112793/2025/02/05/bills-2025-offseason-roster-salary-cap/ Excellent analysis of the Bills cap situation. Suggests restructuring Miller, Allen, Dawkins and Oliver and some smaller moves gets the Bills to 37 mill in cap space. The Bills will need to add a starter at CB and WR, hopefully bring back Ty Johnson and Hollins and complete the roster. Depending on how Beane adds starters at CB and WR, will greatly influence how much money he has for upgrades on the DL. I now expect Miller to return at half his current cost as a situational pass rusher. One move he didn’t mention in the article is cutting AJE. That yields cap savings and opens a spot for an upgrade.

That's fine, the Bills can add him to the practice squad when he gets cut 3 games into the season for dropping 6 balls.

Arian Smith is a 5-6th rd draft pick. Lots of speed, mediocre route running and terrible hands and I'm writing this as a UGA season ticket holder. He is someone you take a late round flier on and hope it works out. No way a team uses a premium draft pick on him.