GASabresIUFan

I rarely (if eve agree with you, but Elam has to be in the top 10 worst Bills ever especially given his draft status.

I’m all in on getting Crosby or Garrett or ( fill in vet DE in his prime) to play opposite of Groot. My one caveat is that we need to keep both 2nds to be used on a corner and WR. This strategy may depend on what management thinks about 2nd year players Carter and Solomon and whether they want Miller back as a situational pass rusher. I think there is a 50/50 chance Miller returns at a significant decrease in salary and cap cost. Remember if they cut him they save 8 mill, but then have to find a replacement. I’d rather cut AJE whose pressure % was terrible. If they bring back Miller and acquire Crosby, the line looks something like this. Starters - Groot, Oliver, Jones & Crosby Backups - Miller, Solomon, Carter plus a rookie middle rd pick like Pegues who has good upside. This frees up the 2 2nd rd picks to add a WR like Bond and a CB like Hairston.

Corrected! I'm sure Ray Lewis has already called him to offer him a contract in Baltimore.

The Bills can reasonably create about 40 mill in cap space, mostly by restructuring their biggest contracts. To do that may add some void years to spread out the up front bonuses for the restructuring. There is a good article in the Athletic detailing some potential changes to create cap space. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6112793/2025/02/05/bills-2025-offseason-roster-salary-cap/

He is not a lock to make this roster. The Bills will save about 3.3 million if he is cut. His pressure rate was terrible last year and if we bring in a better player (like Garrett or Crosby or ????) AJE will be gone.

That's good news. It's good to know that the Oline will be back in it's entirety as everyone who played last year is under contract for next season. All 5 starters, Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence and Edwards, are signed. Depth snap leaders, Anderson (27%), Van Denmark (18%), SVPG (11%) & Grable (7%) are now all signed as well.

I’m sorry Gunner but this is the same BS people keeps slinging at Beane; “No difference makers.” What are Cook, Brown, Shakir, Benford, T Johnson etc….? Benford was a 6th rd pick you just graded out as the 5th best CB in the NFL. That’s a HR pick by any objective measure. Shakir, a 5th rd pick, was 2nd in the league in YAC and has become one of the most reliable slot receivers in the NFL. Another HR pick by any objective measure. I think people here consistently under rate the quality of players on this roster. For example how many teams in the NFL would be lining up to acquire Dawkins or Brown if they were available in trade or as FAs? 28? More? Myles Garrett is a future HOFer and where is Cleveland? Crosby is a huge star, where are the Raiders? Star power guarantees nothing in the NFL, just look at the Cowboys. Beane has built the most consistent winning Bills team ever with his singles, doubles, triples and yes HRs. Remember this is a team game with a salary cap, you can’t and won’t have a superstar at every position. No question the defense needs to be fixed to take the next step but enough already about the lack of difference makers as it simply isn’t true.

Bishop will be fine. The secondary will look much better with a good consistent pass rush. If I were Beane, get Crosby or Garrett but make sure you keep the 2 2nds this year. Use those picks to add a CB and DT

Correct. Even Philly - such as WR Jalen Reagor (21st overall in 2020) and T Andre Dillard (22nd overall in 2019).

Yep. Kiper did the work, as did Beane and his staff, and got it right.

Actually the study I looked at evaluated both draft order and player outcomes and Kiper was the best overall and specifically on player outcomes. https://www.hogshaven.com/2022/4/1/23004431/which-analysts-are-best-at-predicting-nfl-draft-ouctomes Also the point of my original post was that everyone saying that Beane doesn't know how to draft and other BS, I was illustrating that nothing Beane has done has been from left field including his misses on Ford and Basham. Elam is the only early pick anyone has a colorable argument shouldn't have been made and even that one, many evaluators had a 1st rd grade. While many people seem to harp on the misses, they seem to ignore that picks like Cook, Rousseau, Torrence, Shakir, Brown etc.. where Beane hit it out of the park.

and that is all he will get and probably for 5 mill or less.

Exactly. What is so great about a 5-9 Wideout who only catches about 60% of his targets and only averages about 11 yards a catch. Players like this are a dime a dozen.

Yes and no. Kiper himself says he watches a ton of film and does grades and evaluations based on what he sees. He does have great sources and those sources lists are also based on evaluations. His big board is based on who he thinks are the best players not necessarily based on who will be drafted 1st. Remember he had Jalen Carter ranked no. 1 on his board and not QBs Young or Stroud. This is from his 2023 Big Board article: https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/34633986/2023-nfl-draft-rankings-mel-kiper-big-board-top-prospects-every-position

You are absolutely wrong. Jalen Carter 9th over all in 2023 Jordan Davis 13th overall in 2022 Devonte Smith 10th overall in 2021 The Bills top picks in 2021-2023; 2021 - 30th, 2022 - 25th, 2023 - 33rd Apples and oranges. In fact the worst 1st pick for Philly in the last 5 years was 22nd. The best Bills 1st pick in the last 5 years 23rd.

After reading all the negative comments on Beane's drafting, I decided to compare Beane's draft slot to Mel Kiper's lists for that season. I recently saw a study that named Kiper the best and most consistent draft evaluator. So here are our top 2 round draft picks and Kiper's rankings. Walter Football was 2nd. 2018 1-7 Allen - Kiper 5 2018 1-16 Edmunds - Kiper 11 2019 1-9 Oliver - Kiper 9 2019 2-38 Ford - Kiper 22 2020 2-54 Epenesa - Kiper 45 2021 1-30 Rousseau - Kiper 39 FYI Groot is 3rd in his draft class in sacks behind Parsons (12th overall) & Paye (21st overall) Paye only has 1.5 more sacks than Groot. 2021 2-61 Bashman - Kiper 59 2022 1-23 Elam - Kiper 41 - First real reach by Beane and he got burned 2022 2-63 Cook - Kiper 99 - 2nd reach and Beane knocks it out of the park 2023 1-25 Kincaid - Kiper 19 2023 2-59 Torrence - Kiper 61 2024 2-33 Coleman - Kiper 33 2024 2-60 Bishop - Kiper 61 Beane Draft steals using Kiper's rankings (I didn't through every pick) 2022 5-148 Shakir - Kiper 81 2021 3-93 Brown - Kiper 72 From looking at the picks in the top 2 rounds, it's pretty clear that Beane rarely reaches and that most of his evaluations have been solid. Sometimes the physical tools don't match the on field performance in the NFL like Ford and Basham. You can B word and moan about certain picks, but for most part Beane hasn't picked anyone from left field. Even Elam had a 1st rd grade from some evaluators (for example PFF had him 29th). The truth Beane has done a good job early and an excellent job from the 3rd rd on. It's hard to hit HRs when you are drafting in the last 3rd of the 1st rd.

Does the fact he's from WNY (Jamestown) influence anyone's opinion?

I agree. I'm not trading with the Chiefs unless I get an significant overpay like my example. I would give them back a 6th to make it look better. Which is why I want to keep the 2 2nds. We also need a WR and CB.

I'm ok with trading 2025 and 2026 1sts for Garrett. However, I'm not all the interested in giving up either of the 2 2nd rd picks given our needs at WR, CB, and S.

BUF (Run of ProFootballnetwork.com) 30. Shemar Stewart EDGE Texas A&M 56. Maxwell Hairston CB Kentucky 62. Isaiah Bond WR Texas 108. Sebastian Castro S Iowa 131. Quincy Riley CB Louisville 171. J.J. Pegues DT Ole Miss 175. Smael Mondon Jr. LB Georgia 179. Trevor Etienne RB Georgia 181. Xavier Truss OG Georgia 208. Brady Cook QB Missouri If this is how the draft worked out I'd be thrilled. I'm a little biased toward the SEC because that is who I've seen play the most. That said, the first 3 picks are all potential starters. Castro gives depth at S. Pegues is a huge run stopping DT who can still get to the QB - Jones' eventual replacement. Riley might end up being better than Hairston and is a ball hawk. Mondon is a very good overall linebacker and could develop into Milano's replacement. Etienne would be the perfect 3rd down back if Johnson leaves. He has speed and good hands. Truss fills a need as OG depth and was a multi year starter at UGA. Cook is an athletic big QB. Sound familiar?

Of course it would depend on who is available, but generally any team would make this deal. The draft chart says 30 is worth 620 points. 31 is worth 600 and 95 is worth (KC actually now has 95 not 96) 120 points. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

So if KC offered 31 and 96 for 30 you wouldn't make the deal even though the Bills don't have a 3rd rd pick?

Good video. Shows that their is depth in this draft at CB, DE, and DT that will be available to us in the 2nd rd. Kyle Williams looks very interesting as a 3rd/4th rd WR who might start immediately.

You do realize what those players have in common? They were defensive standouts on UGAs National Champion Teams. In fact the Eagles GM added Dean and Kelee Ringo from those teams. He also has 4 Bama players including Hurts and D. Smith who all have National Championship pedigrees. Noticing a trend? Their GM drafts the best players from the best college football teams. Guys who know how to win and expect to win. That doesn't mean you can't win without such players, but it certainly helps. For example: Who was the best Bills player against KC in the playoffs? James Cook, who won 2 National Championship while at Georgia. We need more players like this. The good news for Buffalo is that Ohio St has a ton of players in this draft including guys at positions of need and who could be reasonable available when we draft, assuming no Garrett trade. Using ESPN's composite rankings: Tyleik Williams (DT) is ranked 20th, WR Emeka Egbuka is 29th, Edge Rusher JT Tuimoloau is 58th, and Edge Rusher Jack Sawyer is 78th. All of these guys would make the Bills better at positions of need. If we want the next Cooper DeJean, my vote is for Texas's Jahdae Barron (42nd in ESPN's rankings, but higher in others).

You do realize he was playing with a torn PCL this season? You do realize that Josh targeted Kincaid 91 times as a rookie (Dalton caught 80% of his targets as a rookie). The amount of targets increased when Brady became the OC. Add Knox’s 36 targets and Morris’ 3, that’s 130 targets to TEs in 2023. In 2024, Kincaid was Josh’s 2nd most popular target at 75 and Josh threw to TEs 118 times overall. Sorry your argument that Josh doesn’t throw to TEs doesn’t hold up.