GASabresIUFan

CBS has a mock up today with the Bills taking an OT in the 1st. In the comment the author doesn’t talk the player or why OT is a need, but talks instead about the Bills losing to KC. If this what AI is coming to, then maybe we need to take the I out of AI. Bulger has us with a WR (Coleman) and S (Kinchens) in his two round Mock. The Athletic’s Lee has us with a DT (Newton), which is also a need. Mel Kiper has the Bills taking Mitchell.

I'll be surprised if any of Jones, Epenesa, Floyd, Dodson, or Rapp return. I don't think we can afford to retain any of them. I'd like to see Epenesa and Dodson return but I'm not holding my breath. I believe the Bills management likes Dorain Williams and will give him a shot at Dodson spot. I also think the Bills uses their 3rd rd pick to get a Jones replacement.

He also has size, decent speed, runs quality routes, and has a habit of getting open. There are faster players, but his size and hands are huge reasons to look at him early in the draft. I think he has also suffered from being in offenses that spread the ball. As a freshman, UGA had Bowers, McConkey, Jermaine Burton, Darnell Washington, George Pickens, and Rosemy-Jacksaint, and Mitchell was 3rd in catches (29) and 4th in yards. RB James Cook also grabbed 27 balls that year. From that group alone 3 players have already been drafted in the top 100. - Washington (3rd rd 2023), Pickens (2nd rd in 2022), and Cook (2nd rd 2022). Bowers is a top 10 pick this year. Mitchell will probably go late 1st. Burton is likely a 2nd rd pick. McConkey should go somewhere between 50 and 100 and I expect someone to take Jacksaint late (and get a steal in the process). That's one heck of a collection of talent, with Mitchell, McConkey, Bowers, and Jacksaint all freshmen and Burton a sophomore.

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As a fellow UGA fan, I am admittedly biased as well, but considering he helped win 2 National Championships, I think our bias is at least based on real success on the field. It's not like we are Ohio State fans or someone who can't win the big one. I'm all for the Bills drafting any of Bowers (TE), Mitchell (WR), McConkey (WR), Bullard (S), Lassiter (CB), Van Pran (C), Tykee Smith (S), Mims (OL), Edwards (RB), and Jacksaint (WR) because they are all really good football players with proven track records of success. The Bills could certainly benefit from guys who know how to win. Also most of the guys listed are top 3 rd picks. Bowers, Mitchell, Mims, and Lassiter have 1st rd grades. Bullard, Tykee Smith, and Van Pran have 2nd rd grades, and McConkey a 2nd to 3rd rd grade. If the Bills went Mitchell first, Bullard second, and then grabbed Edwards (RB) and Jacksaint late in the draft I'd be thrilled for the Bills because those guys would make the Bills a better football team.

By the way, the one thing I really like about Bullock is his size. Poyer and Hyde are around 6 feet 200, having a 6'3 safety would be a nice feature as he can challenge bigger receivers.

It's funny that you say that, but all Mitchell ever did at Georgia was score clutch TDs and average about 15 yards a catch. In all 4 CFP games with GA, Mitchell caught a TD. At Texas, he had 11 TDs and averaged over 15 yards a catch. He also caught a TD in Texas' CFP game this season. When I think of what the Bills need, a 6-4 receiver who knows how to get open and make a critical catch, he tops the list. My biggest issue with Legette is that he did nothing for his first 4 years at USC. He had a great year last season, but again when I watched him play against UGA, it wasn't memorable.

@GunnerBill I appreciate the time and effort that went into making the Mock drafts. It's a ton of work and it's appreciated. As to the Bills selections, I agree with the positions but not the players. At WR, I think the Texas boys, Worthy and Mitchell, are both better players. I prefer Mitchell, but who knows what Beane will go for. As for the Safety, the rankings I've seen are all over the place, but as a UGA fan, I'm partial to Bullard over Bullock. I've seen what Bullard can do helping UGA to two National Championships and we could use some guys who expect to win. Mitchell, a former UGA player as well, has a similar attitude and accomplishments. I know you'll look at trades later, but I'd like to see Beane trade down in the 1st to garner at least an extra 3rd rd pick. Given our needs having 4 top 100 picks would help considerably. This way we'd be able to get 2 WR, a S, and a DT or Edge.

You don’t think Allen, Cook and Kincaid are difference makers? You don’t think if we get a WR in the 1st as I suggested that he could be a difference maker? Don’t forget Allen lead the NFL in TDs. Cook gave us almost 1600 yards from scrimmage and Kincaid nearly 700 yards as a rookie. The stats also don’t support your assertion on defense either. The Bills were 4th in sacks, 2nd in fewest TD’s allowed, 8th in QB pressure %, and we were among the leaders in passes batted down. Your complaint that we don’t have difference makers like everyone else’s is centered around Digg’s and Davis’ failures at WR. This is a fixable problem in the draft. Replacing the depth lost on the DL and safety is a much larger problem given our lack of cap space.

Other than WR and S, the Bills problem isn’t talent or coaching, it’s depth. When you look at the Bills, we have good to excellent starters at most positions. On offense we have a franchise QB, a star RB, depth at TE, a solid Oline with depth (Bates, Doyle, Anderson and Van Denmark) an up and coming slot receiver in Shakir and Diggs (a No. 2 receiver). On defense we have three very good corners in Benford, Johnson and Douglas, good to excellent starting LB’s in Benard and Milano, and two very good DL in Rousseau and Oliver. Injuries this season on defense exposed our lack of depth and it cost us. Beane spent so much on DL that he neglected everything else until grabbing Douglas at the trade deadline. Rapp was our only effective Safety depth and the kids Williams and Spector didn’t play much at LB until season’s end. At CB only Dane Jackson was the depth as 1st rd bust Elam rarely saw the field. As of right now, the kids at LB plus Elam return. We have also lost much of the depth Beane created on the DL to FA. We need to pray that Miller steps up next season to be at least somewhat effective. With Hyde retiring and Rapp a FA, only Poyer remains at safety. Beane has his work cut out for him to retool the DL and safeties. He also needs to build depth at CB if Dane Jackson doesn’t return. What a mess. With our 1st 3 picks we need a WR to replace Davis, a Safety to replace Hyde and a DT to replace DaQuan Jones. We also need more talent at WR, an Edge rusher to replace Floyd and Epenesa, plus help at RB, safety and CB. If the Bills are to stay at the top of the AFC East, Beane is going to have to have the draft of his life, get lucky again on some vet minimum contracts and hope his starters mostly stay healthy.

Then you haven’t watched McConkey play very much. Ladd’s size is nearly identical to Stef Diggs. Ladd has excellent hands, good speed and run excellent routes. I fact I think he’s faster than Diggs. He can lineup and be effective anywhere. Diggs will be gone in 2 years. Ladd would be an excellent replacement. That doesn’t mean we don’t need bigger receivers. We do. AD Mitchell is a great combo of size and speed. I watched AD at UGA with Ladd and they are great combo. Add them to Shakir, Diggs, and Kincaid and defenses will have no one they can double team or try to scheme to take away.

No coach can win without the right players. I thought Brady did a great job with the tools he had last season. How does an OC succeed with a rifled-armed QB when he has only 1 WR (Shakir) who catches the ball most of the time, a group of WRs who don't get open, and no true deep threat? He can't. Davis was running the wrong routes and dropping balls when they were thrown to him. Diggs dropped important passes at critical times and wasn't getting open in the 2nd half and Harty and Sherfield were wastes of roster spots. So Brady ran with Cook and Josh, and threw the ball to Kincaid and Shakir. It was enough to create a consistent ball control offense that earned the Bills a playoff spot and one a WC game win and nearly a Divisional game win. Now lets hope the Beane is smart enough to get the additional receivers Brady needs early in the draft.

How much protection is he giving Josh on his 3 snaps a week on offense?

These are the highest-paid players on the roster who really don't have a place on the roster going forward. White is injured and has been replaced by Douglas. Hines and Harty are overpaid kick returners, who can and should be replaced by an incoming draft pick or cheap FA. Neal and Gilliam are almost completely special teams players. Brady diminished Gilliam's role on the offense to only 17 snaps in the last 5 weeks of the season. Neal received 48 D snaps the entire year, including only 11 snaps in the last 8 games. The Bills can no longer afford to keep guys who are primarily special teamers. They need depth players they trust to play on offense and defense as well as special teams given our cap problems. By the way, the Bills have Hamlin still under contract for $1,095,119 next season (about 2.3 million less than Neal is scheduled to make). He can easily fill Neal's role, but he may be let go as well. Hamlin's dead cap if released in only 40K. As to who replaces Gilliiam's very limited role on the offense? Someone like Quentin Morris (if re-signed) and in goal-line situations we could use an extra OL or DL. A draft pick or UDFA could also earn the spot. The Bills have TE's TreMcKitty and Zach Davidson under cheap contracts if they need an extra big body or two. FYI: Spotrac projects these $ figures for some of our key FAs: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ Floyd ($8.1), Jones ($6.8), Epenesa ($5.6), Rapp ($5.5), Dodson ($4.9), Dane Jackson ($3.1)

It depends on whether Morse wants to return and whether management feels that Bates can fill the role for less. I suspect the solution here is Morse extends another year enabling the Bills to structure the contract to cut his cap hit by $3 mill or more in 2024.

Without some major restructuring of contracts here is the BIlls' basic problem cap-wise. The main offensive players under contract (14) (1QB, 1RB, 3WR, 2 TE, 7OL)- Allen, Cook, Diggs, Shakir, Shorter, Kincaid, Knox, Brown, Dawkins, Morse, Torrence, Bates, and Van Denmark, cost $141,184,141. The main defensive players under contract (13) (3DE, 1DT, 4LB, 4CB, 1S) - Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Bernard, Milano, Spector, Williams, Johnson, Elam, Douglas, Benford, and Poyer, cost $87,937,695 Add 3 specialists Bass, Martin and Ferguson for $7,682,500 plus void dead cap of $11,635,084 and the Bills are at $248,439,420 in cap for 30 players. This doesn't include 5 players under contract likely to be cut costing $33,139,404. If cut, these 5 (White, Harty, Hines, Gilliam, and Neal), would save $20,027,901 off the $33+ million, but would bring the Bills cap total for 30 players plus dead cap to $261,550,923. To put things in simple terms, the Bills are over the projected cap even with the 5 cuts approx $20 mill, and still need to add 24 players to the roster. So for those expecting big $ trades or FA signings, I think you are barking up the wrong tree. The Bills are going to have to cut an additional $40 Million from the cap, besides the 5 cuts, to sign their draft picks and complete the roster with players making near-minimum contracts. What a mess. I'm not saying Beane can't get it done. Obviously, he has to, but I'm no longer even expecting any like a McGovern level signing. Looking at our FAs who people want back, here is what they made last season: Jones (8,563,333), Floyd (2,628,750), Dodson (2,010,000), Jackson (2,010,000), Epenesa (1,870,000), Rapp (1,770,000), Edwards (1,770,000), Ty Johnson (1,080,000) and Morris ($870,000). We can't afford Jones, and Floyd and Epenesa won't come back anywhere close to their numbers. Rapp and Edwards will also likely command bigger $. It's going to be a long hard, but interesting off-season to see what rabbits Beane can pull out of his hat to complete this roster.

However given our cap issues we need players that contribute on O\D and special teams. We really can’t afford special teams specialists

Our coverage on special teams was terrible. Get rid of them all and start again.

Time to move on and save nearly $2 mill in cap

Trade down from 28 to even later in the 1st or early 2nd to garner an extra 3rd rd pick (plus?). Once that's done, use our 1st pick on the BPA WR and then use one of the 2 3rds on a WR as well. If you can come away with two of Mitchell, Worthy, McConkey and/or Burton, our WR group will substantially improve both short and long-term. I also really like Brendan Rice. One sleeper pick for day 3 of the draft is Rosemy-Jacksaint, he has size, good speed, and an incredible catch radius. He will be undervalued in the draft because he wasn't the primary target ever while as UGA. He played behind, Bowers, McConkey, and even Burton and Mitchell before they transferred out to be the No. 1 guys at Bama and Texas respectively.

You don't need a pure No. 1 if you have an excellent group of pass catchers that keeps the defense from scheming or double-teaming a player to take them away. Compare the Bills to GB. They have 5 WRs and 2 TEs who all catch the ball well, the WRs all have speed and run good routes. How does one defend when there are 5 guys in the pattern that can beat you and take the ball to the house? You don't, you can only hope to slow them down and hope they make a mistake. GB's top 4 receivers, all drafted in the last 2 drafts account for 2500 yards and 25 TDs. This is what Brady did at LSU and what he should do here. When opponents looked at the Bills they focused on Diggs. Diggs helped them out by dropping passes (he has now done that in the last 2 years). They ignored Davis, Sherfield, and Harty. Davis had a few big games but otherwise faded as the season progressed. As Diggs faded as well, Kincaid and Shakir picked up some of the slack, but not enough in the end. However, draft two capable guys early in the draft and we go from just having 3 targets to 5 and we look much more like GB. Add Cook to the mix and Allen should have a huge year regardless of whether or not the 2 draftees are as impactful as GB's kids. Add guys like Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey and our size, speed, and hands all improve immediately.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ 2024 Diggs - Cap Hit - $27,895,400; Dead Cap if cut - $31,096,000 2025 Diggs - Cap Hit - $27,354,000; Dead Cap if cut - $22,247,000 2026 Diggs - Cap Hit - $28,446,000; Dead Cap if cut - $13,398,000 2024 Miller - Cap Hit - $23,784,000; Dead Cap if cut - $32,501,000 2025 Miller - Cap Hit - $23,874,000; Dead Cap if cut - $15,417,000 2026 Miller - Cap Hit - $26,374,000; Dead Cap if cut - $9,043,000 If it's possible to restructure these deals to move some cap to 2026 without making it too big a hit to cut them in 2026, this may be a helpful way to save some cap in 2024.

I was just about to post that his original video was overly optimistic about the Bills' cap situation. $45-50 million over seems to be the situation. The Bills might have to clear $70 million to pay their draft picks and sign cheap FAs to fill the roster spots from cut players. There is no way, even with restructuring contracts that the Bills are hitting FA with anything major. They are going to have to hit on 3-4 players in the draft year one and get lucky again on some cheap contract like Floyd this past season. I wish Beane the best of luck. Diggs is the one contract I wouldn't restructure. We need to be able to move on in two years and restructuring will just prolonging the inevitable. Tre White has to be at the top of the cut list, because Douglas is on the roster now. $6 mill in savings pre-June 1, $10 million after June 1. Morse if cut save 8.5. With Bates on the roster, I can see this happening, but I'd prefer to keep him given the strength of the line's play last season. Poyer would save 5.7, but I doubt he can be replaced for anywhere close to that number. Harty would save $4 mill, and will be gone. Hines saves 4.6. Neal saves 2.8 Gilliam saves 1.9 McGovern, Taron Johnson, Douglas, and Dawkins should all be extended which could create cap savings in 2024.

So his Boutte is in a sling?

I'm a UGA fan and the two best individual performances I've seen by an opposing QB (Burrow and LSU excepted) against UGA were Mayfield in the Rose Bowl and Stroud in the Peach Bowl. Those two literally carried both of their teams in those games. However, since Stroud is an NFL rookie, I have a hard time putting him ahead of guys in their prime who have QB'd their teams to multiple playoff appearences like Hurts and Dak. That said, if he remains healthy, it won't be long until he's a top 5 or so NFL QB. So why Love so high? He's probably a little too high, but he QB'd one of my fantasy teams to a title after Herbert got hurt. Seriously, he looked like Aaron Rodgers getting GB into the playoffs, and with the weapons he has (the Bills should be so lucky) he is on the verge of being in the MVP conversation as early as next year.