GASabresIUFan

I’m not sure how people have Stroud significantly over Love. Both were 1st yr starters. Both lead their teams to the playoffs and their stats are similar with a slight edge to Love Love - 64.2% 4159 yards 32 TDs 11 Ints QBR-62.1 Stroud - 63.9% 4108 yards 23 TDs 5 Ints QBR-57.4 I really like both guys, but to me they are pretty close. Stroud is a few years younger, but I think the sky is the limit for both players.

Legette had a tough first day at the Senior Bowl while McConkey, now healthy, dominated the DBs in the one on one drills.

We have premium players at both positions in Rousseau and Oliver. We also have Miller, who could rebound and have a solid season next year. As I noted above, we certainly need added depth at both positions and it wouldn't surprise me if we draft both positions in the 1st 4 rounds. That said, WR and Safety are bigger concerns. Depending on how Beane proceeds, we may have zero safeties on the roster soon if both Poyer and Hamlin become cap casualties. At WR, Davis' disappearing act and then injury pointed out how ineffective our WR group had become. Defenses double-teamed and schemed to take Diggs away. He helped by dropping critical passes. This forced Brady to use a more ball control offense which took away explosive plays from Allen. To maximize what we get from Allen, Beane needs to give Brady better talent at WR. Unfortunately, through out Beane's tenure to has yet to draft a WR above the 4th rd.

I agree about needing 2 WRs because I don't believe Shorter is part of the solution and I think Diggs is gone in two seasons. However, unless we move back from the 1st or pick up another top 100 pick in trade, I would use one of the 5th on a 2nd WR. The Bills need both DT and Edge and waiting to the 5th or 6th round would be a mistake. You can get good to very good WRs in the 5th, such as Shakir to Nucua. I'd also like to say that I'm also interested in drafting Rosemy-Jacksaint from UGA late. He was overshadowed in his career at Georgia by Pickens, Bowers, Burton, McConkey, and Mitchell, but is a very good receiver. He has decent size, runs excellent routes, and has very good hands. At any other school, he would have been a star player.

What would be an interesting development at center is extending Morse one more year, then trading Bates to fill another area of need and drafting a center in the first 4 rounds (maybe even with the pick received for Bates). This would save about 4-5 million in cap.

Neither Rapp nor Lewis are under contract. Hamlin and Poyer are our only 2 safeties under contract and both could be cap casualties.

Bates is the backup center and is under contract. I do agree that a long-term solution at center is needed, but I can see Beane kicking that can down the road for another year, especially if he restructures Morse's deal to include another year.

I'm not sure Newton will even be there when we draft. If the Bills take someone like him, they would have to believe he could step into DaQuan Jones' spot, even if he didn't play there is college.

Heading into the off-season The Bills' biggest strength may be the O Line. All 5 starters are under contract. Key backup Bates is also under contract and they have youngsters Doyle, Anderson, and Van Denmark also under contract. The only real loss is Edwards. Another area of strength in LB. Even without Dodson, the Bills have starters Milano and Benard under contract and kids Spector and Williams who played pretty well when called upon late in the year. If Milano isn't progressing well from his injury then Beane's opinion of this area will probably change, but right now we have 4 guys under contract for next season and the Bills usually only carry 5. TE - Kincaid and Knox are under contract. We also have 2 others on futures contracts including McKitty. The last area of strength is the CBs. All three starters are in place in Douglas, Benford, and Taron Johnson. Elam, like it or not, is also returning. The question here is additional depth and whether Elam finally take a step forward. The oft-injured White is under contract but is a likely cap casualty. Dane Jackson will be a loss if he isn't re-signed. The questionable areas are as follows: D Line - We have 4 guys under contract including 2 excellent starters in Rousseau and Olivier. However, after that, there are only question marks. The biggest is the Miller. Can he return to form? If he does, that will be a huge boost to the Bills' defense and their SB aspirations. Jonathan is the only signed depth of note. The biggest issue will be replacing the run-stuffing DaQuan Jones. Settle, Floyd, Phillips, Lawson, and Ford are probably all gone. Safety - Only Poyer and Hamlin are under contract and both could be cut. Replacing Hyde and Rapp and possibly Poyer seems like a nearly impossible task. WR - The Bills have Shakir and DIggs which is a solid place to start. Shorter is under contract but not sure if he'll contribute or not. Harty is under contract, but I expect him to get cut. Davis is the biggest loss but is easily replaced. RB - Cook is a star and could be a superstar if he makes strides in holding onto the ball (fumbles and catches). The question is who do we have after him? Hines is under contract, but I suspect he'll be a cap casualty. Ty Johnson played well but is an FA. Murray is also an FA, but I don't expect him back.

The Bills off-season is a 4 step process 1) Fixing the cap - the Bills need to reduce their cap by 60-70 million (or more) to sign their draft picks and any FAs. When I look at the Bills, I see 30 players I'm pretty certain will be here next season. That list includes Poyer, Morse, and Martin, who I can see being cut, but I think restructuring is more likely. These 30 players plus dead cap currently cost $261+ million. My cap casualties include White, Gilliam, Harty, Hines, and Neal. 2) Typically Step 2 is retaining key FAs like Jones, Floyd, Epenesa, and Dodson. However, right now, I don't see the Bills having any money to retain any of the players listed. All will demand (and have earned) bigger $ than the Bills can afford. 3) Finding replacements for key positions in the draft or FAs. Right now the key losses look to be at S (Hyde, Rapp), WR (Davis), and D Line (Floyd, Jones, Epenesa). Dodson is also a loss, but I suspect the Bills won't replace him. Instead, they'll rely on the development of Spector and Williams. I believe the replacements for Jones, Hyde, and Davis will come from their early picks in the draft. The rest will come from cheap gambles on FAs like Beane did with Rapp and Floyd last year. 4) Completing organizational depth. The Bills are going to need backups at QB, RB (I'd like to see Ty Johnson return), more depth along the D Line, more WR depth, and additional safeties. With 10 picks (7 in rounds 4-7) in the draft and the Bills need to get younger, I suspect much of this depth to come from these players. I think we'll see a RB, a 2nd WR, a DB or two, and at least one Edge guy drafted. I also suspect, given our cap issues, that the Bills will sign a large group of UDFAs. They have already signed 15 guys to future/reserve contracts.

CBS has a mock up today with the Bills taking an OT in the 1st. In the comment the author doesn’t talk the player or why OT is a need, but talks instead about the Bills losing to KC. If this what AI is coming to, then maybe we need to take the I out of AI. Bulger has us with a WR (Coleman) and S (Kinchens) in his two round Mock. The Athletic’s Lee has us with a DT (Newton), which is also a need. Mel Kiper has the Bills taking Mitchell.

I'll be surprised if any of Jones, Epenesa, Floyd, Dodson, or Rapp return. I don't think we can afford to retain any of them. I'd like to see Epenesa and Dodson return but I'm not holding my breath. I believe the Bills management likes Dorain Williams and will give him a shot at Dodson spot. I also think the Bills uses their 3rd rd pick to get a Jones replacement.

He also has size, decent speed, runs quality routes, and has a habit of getting open. There are faster players, but his size and hands are huge reasons to look at him early in the draft. I think he has also suffered from being in offenses that spread the ball. As a freshman, UGA had Bowers, McConkey, Jermaine Burton, Darnell Washington, George Pickens, and Rosemy-Jacksaint, and Mitchell was 3rd in catches (29) and 4th in yards. RB James Cook also grabbed 27 balls that year. From that group alone 3 players have already been drafted in the top 100. - Washington (3rd rd 2023), Pickens (2nd rd in 2022), and Cook (2nd rd 2022). Bowers is a top 10 pick this year. Mitchell will probably go late 1st. Burton is likely a 2nd rd pick. McConkey should go somewhere between 50 and 100 and I expect someone to take Jacksaint late (and get a steal in the process). That's one heck of a collection of talent, with Mitchell, McConkey, Bowers, and Jacksaint all freshmen and Burton a sophomore.

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As a fellow UGA fan, I am admittedly biased as well, but considering he helped win 2 National Championships, I think our bias is at least based on real success on the field. It's not like we are Ohio State fans or someone who can't win the big one. I'm all for the Bills drafting any of Bowers (TE), Mitchell (WR), McConkey (WR), Bullard (S), Lassiter (CB), Van Pran (C), Tykee Smith (S), Mims (OL), Edwards (RB), and Jacksaint (WR) because they are all really good football players with proven track records of success. The Bills could certainly benefit from guys who know how to win. Also most of the guys listed are top 3 rd picks. Bowers, Mitchell, Mims, and Lassiter have 1st rd grades. Bullard, Tykee Smith, and Van Pran have 2nd rd grades, and McConkey a 2nd to 3rd rd grade. If the Bills went Mitchell first, Bullard second, and then grabbed Edwards (RB) and Jacksaint late in the draft I'd be thrilled for the Bills because those guys would make the Bills a better football team.

By the way, the one thing I really like about Bullock is his size. Poyer and Hyde are around 6 feet 200, having a 6'3 safety would be a nice feature as he can challenge bigger receivers.

It's funny that you say that, but all Mitchell ever did at Georgia was score clutch TDs and average about 15 yards a catch. In all 4 CFP games with GA, Mitchell caught a TD. At Texas, he had 11 TDs and averaged over 15 yards a catch. He also caught a TD in Texas' CFP game this season. When I think of what the Bills need, a 6-4 receiver who knows how to get open and make a critical catch, he tops the list. My biggest issue with Legette is that he did nothing for his first 4 years at USC. He had a great year last season, but again when I watched him play against UGA, it wasn't memorable.

@GunnerBill I appreciate the time and effort that went into making the Mock drafts. It's a ton of work and it's appreciated. As to the Bills selections, I agree with the positions but not the players. At WR, I think the Texas boys, Worthy and Mitchell, are both better players. I prefer Mitchell, but who knows what Beane will go for. As for the Safety, the rankings I've seen are all over the place, but as a UGA fan, I'm partial to Bullard over Bullock. I've seen what Bullard can do helping UGA to two National Championships and we could use some guys who expect to win. Mitchell, a former UGA player as well, has a similar attitude and accomplishments. I know you'll look at trades later, but I'd like to see Beane trade down in the 1st to garner at least an extra 3rd rd pick. Given our needs having 4 top 100 picks would help considerably. This way we'd be able to get 2 WR, a S, and a DT or Edge.

You don’t think Allen, Cook and Kincaid are difference makers? You don’t think if we get a WR in the 1st as I suggested that he could be a difference maker? Don’t forget Allen lead the NFL in TDs. Cook gave us almost 1600 yards from scrimmage and Kincaid nearly 700 yards as a rookie. The stats also don’t support your assertion on defense either. The Bills were 4th in sacks, 2nd in fewest TD’s allowed, 8th in QB pressure %, and we were among the leaders in passes batted down. Your complaint that we don’t have difference makers like everyone else’s is centered around Digg’s and Davis’ failures at WR. This is a fixable problem in the draft. Replacing the depth lost on the DL and safety is a much larger problem given our lack of cap space.

Other than WR and S, the Bills problem isn’t talent or coaching, it’s depth. When you look at the Bills, we have good to excellent starters at most positions. On offense we have a franchise QB, a star RB, depth at TE, a solid Oline with depth (Bates, Doyle, Anderson and Van Denmark) an up and coming slot receiver in Shakir and Diggs (a No. 2 receiver). On defense we have three very good corners in Benford, Johnson and Douglas, good to excellent starting LB’s in Benard and Milano, and two very good DL in Rousseau and Oliver. Injuries this season on defense exposed our lack of depth and it cost us. Beane spent so much on DL that he neglected everything else until grabbing Douglas at the trade deadline. Rapp was our only effective Safety depth and the kids Williams and Spector didn’t play much at LB until season’s end. At CB only Dane Jackson was the depth as 1st rd bust Elam rarely saw the field. As of right now, the kids at LB plus Elam return. We have also lost much of the depth Beane created on the DL to FA. We need to pray that Miller steps up next season to be at least somewhat effective. With Hyde retiring and Rapp a FA, only Poyer remains at safety. Beane has his work cut out for him to retool the DL and safeties. He also needs to build depth at CB if Dane Jackson doesn’t return. What a mess. With our 1st 3 picks we need a WR to replace Davis, a Safety to replace Hyde and a DT to replace DaQuan Jones. We also need more talent at WR, an Edge rusher to replace Floyd and Epenesa, plus help at RB, safety and CB. If the Bills are to stay at the top of the AFC East, Beane is going to have to have the draft of his life, get lucky again on some vet minimum contracts and hope his starters mostly stay healthy.

Then you haven’t watched McConkey play very much. Ladd’s size is nearly identical to Stef Diggs. Ladd has excellent hands, good speed and run excellent routes. I fact I think he’s faster than Diggs. He can lineup and be effective anywhere. Diggs will be gone in 2 years. Ladd would be an excellent replacement. That doesn’t mean we don’t need bigger receivers. We do. AD Mitchell is a great combo of size and speed. I watched AD at UGA with Ladd and they are great combo. Add them to Shakir, Diggs, and Kincaid and defenses will have no one they can double team or try to scheme to take away.

No coach can win without the right players. I thought Brady did a great job with the tools he had last season. How does an OC succeed with a rifled-armed QB when he has only 1 WR (Shakir) who catches the ball most of the time, a group of WRs who don't get open, and no true deep threat? He can't. Davis was running the wrong routes and dropping balls when they were thrown to him. Diggs dropped important passes at critical times and wasn't getting open in the 2nd half and Harty and Sherfield were wastes of roster spots. So Brady ran with Cook and Josh, and threw the ball to Kincaid and Shakir. It was enough to create a consistent ball control offense that earned the Bills a playoff spot and one a WC game win and nearly a Divisional game win. Now lets hope the Beane is smart enough to get the additional receivers Brady needs early in the draft.

How much protection is he giving Josh on his 3 snaps a week on offense?

These are the highest-paid players on the roster who really don't have a place on the roster going forward. White is injured and has been replaced by Douglas. Hines and Harty are overpaid kick returners, who can and should be replaced by an incoming draft pick or cheap FA. Neal and Gilliam are almost completely special teams players. Brady diminished Gilliam's role on the offense to only 17 snaps in the last 5 weeks of the season. Neal received 48 D snaps the entire year, including only 11 snaps in the last 8 games. The Bills can no longer afford to keep guys who are primarily special teamers. They need depth players they trust to play on offense and defense as well as special teams given our cap problems. By the way, the Bills have Hamlin still under contract for $1,095,119 next season (about 2.3 million less than Neal is scheduled to make). He can easily fill Neal's role, but he may be let go as well. Hamlin's dead cap if released in only 40K. As to who replaces Gilliiam's very limited role on the offense? Someone like Quentin Morris (if re-signed) and in goal-line situations we could use an extra OL or DL. A draft pick or UDFA could also earn the spot. The Bills have TE's TreMcKitty and Zach Davidson under cheap contracts if they need an extra big body or two. FYI: Spotrac projects these $ figures for some of our key FAs: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ Floyd ($8.1), Jones ($6.8), Epenesa ($5.6), Rapp ($5.5), Dodson ($4.9), Dane Jackson ($3.1)

It depends on whether Morse wants to return and whether management feels that Bates can fill the role for less. I suspect the solution here is Morse extends another year enabling the Bills to structure the contract to cut his cap hit by $3 mill or more in 2024.