GASabresIUFan

I looked at the WR stat this past season and 13 receivers finished in the top 25 in Catches, Yards, and 20+ plays. Of the 13, 7 were drafted in the 1st rd and 6 were drafted in round 2-5. 3 of the top 4, Hill, St. Brown, and Nacua were drafted in the 4th or 5th round. Of the 7 1st rd players, Lamb, DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Evans, Chase, Olave, and DeVonta Smith, 3 were top 10 picks, 2 from picks 11-20, and 2 in the last 3rd. There is also no size requirement, except being at least 6 feet tall. Hill and Moore were the only players under 6 feet. Of the remaining 11, 5 were 6-2 or taller. Evans was the tallest and heaviest at 6'5 231. DeVonta Smith was the lightest at 170, followed by Olave at 187 and Hill at 191. The other 10 were 200 lbs or greater. The point of this analysis is that the Bills will probably get an impact WR in the first, but there is also a really good chance that the WR drafted later in the draft could emerge as the better player of the two.

I can understand that. The real issue is getting and keeping quality depth when you are in a bit of a cap crunch. The Bills are likely to lose Floyd, Jones, and Epenesa up front. Those are 3 key contributors even if 2/3 weren't "starters". If Miller can't return to a reasonable form, the D Line, no matter what Beane does will be a huge question mark entering next season. We also only have 4 DL on the roster in Rousseau, Miller, Oliver and Jonathan and we usually carry 9. The other void area is Safety. Poyer and Hamlin are under contract, but who knows what if anything either player has at this point. Ultimately these are the two areas that Beane is going to have to throw his limited FA budget at. Some help will certainly come from the draft, but Beane has to bring in some real experienced help if this team is going to succeed on defense next season. Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about our other "needs". We'll draft a WR to replace Davis. RB depth is easy to come by cheaply or with a late draft pick. OLine depth will come from the draft and we have excellent depth at TE, LB and CB.

Given the depth at WR and Safety, this is an ideal draft to trade down from the 1st to the early second to get an extra top-100 pick.

He had the best season by a Bills RB since McCoy.

Like Ladd, Mitchell is being underrated by people here and in the media. They guy is fantastic. The Adonai teamed with Bowers and McConkey to help UGA win two National Championships catching key passes to help win both games. In fact, he has played in 5 CFP games and caught a TD pass in each one. He is big, quick, has fantastic hands, and knows how to get open. I will be thrilled if the Bills took him at 28. He is a twice as good version of Gabe Davis. Mitchell transferred to Texas to be closer to his daughter. By the way here are the UGA's players who caught a pass in the 2022 CFP Championship game. Bowers (2024 draft 1st rd grade), George Pickens (Steelers), Adonai Mitchell (2024 draft 1/2 rd grade), James Cook (Bills), Darnell Washington (Steelers), James Burton (2024 draft 2nd rd grade), Kearis Jackson (Titans), Kenny McIntosh (Seahawks) and Ladd McConkey (2024 draft 1/2 rd grade). No player caught more than 4 passes in that game. Not a bad collection of talent.

I have all three items. Not sure why I've kept the flashlight and the radio. Yes, the flashlight was for the halftime show. I've also been to an NCAA BB final (IU lost to Maryland), a CFP Final (UGA choked against Bama), World Series games (Braves 91 & 92), and Stanley Cup games (Sabres in 1975 - Bat/Fog game). Given my teams' history when I attend, I don't think I'll be attending again any time soon.

I’ve been to one Super Bowl here in the Atl. Saw my Bills lose to the hated Boys and their awful fans. The swag was pretty good. The seat had a nice seat cushion, with a flash light and small radio with headphones.

Don't be afraid to like him. He is as good as the tape shows. The best thing about him and Bowers is that they always made the big play. He is exactly the type of player the Bills need. If he was two inches taller, he'd probably be in the top 5 WRs taken.

Here is sort of the current depth chart: Possible Cap Casualties are underlined. Players in italics are guys I think Beane will work with to lower their cap hits. OFFENSE QB - Allen; Backups - ZERO; Futures contract: Buechele RB - Cook; Backups - Hines (IR), Gilliam (FB); Futures contract: Evans WR - Diggs, Shakir; Backups - Shorter (IR), Harty; Futures: Isabella, Hamler, Shavers, Thompson TE - Kincaid; Backups - Knox; Futures: McKitty: Other: Davidson (IR) Guards - McGovern, Torrence; Backup - Bates; Tackles - Brown, Dawkins; Backup - Doyle(IR), Van Denmark Futures: Anderson, Gouraige Center - Morse; Backup - Bates DEFENSE Safety - Poyer; Backup - Hamlin; Futures: Williamson Corners - Benford, Douglas, T Johnson; Backups - White(IR), Neal, Elam; Futures: K. Brown (PS), Ingram Linebacker - Milano(IR), Benard; Backups - Williams, Spector Edge - Miller, Rousseau; Backup- Jonathan Tackle - Oliver; Backup - ZERO; Futures: Ankou, Cline Specialists - Bass, Martin & Ferguson That's a 51-man roster of contracted players. Obviously, that's not close to what we'll see next fall, but it does give a pretty good feel for the roster situations. Clear areas on need: Backup QB, at least 5 players along the D line (Edge or tackle), one more LB, at least 2-3 more safeties, possibly a 3rd TE, 2-3 WRs, and another backup RB. Overall, it looks like the needs are about 14-15 players. Starters are needed at WR, Safety, and DT.

Not exactly. We have 10/11 starters on offense returning and 9/11 on defense if Miller is healthy. That’s not exactly needing everything.

We started 2 rookies last year (Kincaid and Torrence) and 4 2nd year players (Cook, Shakir, Bernard, and Benford). Will we start 6 rookies? I highly doubt it, but depending on how the draft goes I can easily see a rookie WR and a rookie S starting next season. I do think we'll see other rookies, especially on the DL, get significant snaps. That's the nature of building depth on a team currently over the cap. On a side note, someone mentioned earlier that drafting for needs while ignoring how the draft falls is a mistake. I generally agree, especially if a really good player falls to you. I did a few mock draft simulations and UGA C Van Pran fell a few times to us at 99. If this happens in real life, the Bills should jump at the chance to grab their future starting center even with Morse and Bates on the roster.

Scary right? How do you complete a roster with only 19 mill in cap space before signing your draft picks? 10 vet bottom of the barrel contracts will cost 15-20 mill.

I can understand how most feel a FA signing at WR is likely. After all Beane has never drafted a receiver above the 4th round and continues to search the Walmart clearance rack for help at the position like Harry and Sherfield. My hope is he finally sees the light and commits real draft capital to the position. We need a cost controlled Davis replacement and an eventually Diggs replacement. Given the depth in this draft at WR this seems like the year of do both. Until we shave 70 Mill off our current cap, everyone is out of our price range. I calculate the top 30 Bills plus dead cap costs us about 261 million in cap.

Given the Bills limited cap space, none of these needs will be change too much by FA signings. The most we can hope for is that they bring back Epenesa or Jones and signing a mid level safety. Even if sign both Jones and Epenesa that won’t end the need for depth at those positions. All it will do is change in what round we draft the depth. We likely won’t see FA spending at WR or OLine depth. I still see us going WR then Safety with the first two picks and then looking elsewhere after that. My hope is, given the depth in the draft at those two positions, is that Beane trades down a few slots in the first to pick up an extra 3rd. I don’t think Franklin or Coleman will still be on the board at 28. Therefore the Bills are looking at the next tier of receivers and most of them, guys like Worthy, Mitchell, McConkey, Legette, and Polk will still be there in the early 2nd.

https://theathletic.com/5252981/2024/02/06/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-needs-holes-positions/ Primary Needs 1) 1, maybe 2 explosive receivers. Need to replace Davis and could use a legit downfield threat. 2) Defensive End - Lawson, Floyd, and Epenesa are all FAs. They think it will be a challenge to bring both Floyd and Epenesa back. I don't think either will return. Regardless, they suggest getting someone this draft to split time with Miller and takeover for him in 2025 3) Defensive Tackle - Jones, Settle, Ford, and Phillips are FAs, leaving only Oliver as a returning starter (or contributor for that matter). They think a Day 2 or early day 3 draft pick will help fill the void. 4) Safety - They should have drafted someone last year to learn from Hyde and Poyer. Could this be the place they spend some FA $? Even if they sign someone, Hamlin is the only depth behind Poyer. They need to draft someone. I think they need to spend 2 draft picks on safeties. Secondary needs 1) Offensive Tackle - Brown & Dawkins are FAs after next season. They need better depth here even with Van Denmark on the roster. 2) Center - Morse is an FA after next season as well. He is also 32. Time to draft his possible replacement. 3) RB - Beane likes to draft RBs. Cook is all the team has right now. Tertiary needs (need depth only) 1) Cornerback - Benford and Douglas are the starters. Neal, Elam, Taron Johnson, and White are under contract for next season. They like the idea of bringing back Dane Jackson or Levi Wallace as cheap FAs for added depth depending on what happens with White. Also drafting someone late. 2) Linebacker - 4 LBs under contract. They need a 5th LB and that can come from a Day 3 pick or getting an FA for special teams. 3) Punter - Do they bring back Martin? They have to decide well before the draft. The article suggests signing a priority UDFA getting him on the practice squad for 2024 and replacing Martin in 2025. Why not just re-sign the Punt G-D?

He is the same size as Diggs and Shakir. He be will successful in the NFL even if used on the outside.

Ladd isn't going in the first. I've watched him play in person over 20 times and he is an amazing WR. He runs great routes, can line up anywhere, has the moves to make players miss, and has good speed and great hands. What he doesn't have is size although he is 6' and he has a long injury history. Those two factors will knock him to the 2nd round and depending on how well he runs at the combine or his pro day, he could even slip into the 3rd. That said he will make any team that drafts him immediately better. He knows how to get open and almost always makes the big catch. He and Bowers were a devasting combo. They were so good Burton transferred to Bama, because he knew he wouldn't be the focus of the offense at Georgia. Here are some typical Ladd highlights Ladd;s crazy TD at 6:25

When drafted that seemed like a possibility and may still be a possibility. He dropped just one pass on 114 targets while at Florida and averaged nearly 20 yards a catch. He was even a higher-rated recruit from high school over Chase, St Brown, and Waddle. That's pretty good company. He started at PSU, but couldn't beat out Washington's Dotson or the recently signed KJ Hamler and transferred to Florida. https://www.buffalobills.com/news/top-five-things-to-know-about-new-buffalo-bills-wr-justin-shorter A guy with that pedigree you would hope would have shown something last year, but a hamstring injury put him on IR for the season. So he gets a reset in 2024. I'm hoping we bring in two guys in the draft and let Shorter compete with them for a job.

Correct. We don't have a WR on the roster who fits that description.

Do you mean besides 6’5 Kelce and 6’4” Valdes-Scanting who made two huge catches in the playoff games to help secure the wins? Or what about SF with 6’4 Kittle or their no.3 WR Jennings who is 6’3. Remember the goal is complimentary football. Both of these offenses spread the ball around. In SF they had 4 players with 60+ catches. In KC they had 6 players with 27 or more catches but they are more top heavy than SF with Rice and Kelce. By the way, I think GB has the best group of young receivers in the NFL. In the last two years, they drafted 4 guys, Watson 6-4 208, Doubs 6-2 204, Wicks 6-1 206, and Reed 5-11 188. They also added two TEs who are 6’6 and 6’5. Those 4 WRs accounted for 2500 yards and 25 TDs. The TEs chipped in another 700 yards. The Bills did a fairly good job of spreading the ball around with 5 players with 39 or more catches, but this is a little misleading. Shakir’s volume increased dramatically when Brady took over and increased further when we lost Davis. Furthermore, the offense became significantly less explosive when Davis stopped playing well and then got hurt. Davis was our big receiver, 6’2 225, and when he disappeared defenses stopped worrying about the non-Diggs side of the field. The goal is to replace and upgrade Davis with an early pick and I think it’s pretty clear from Cee Dee Lambs’ and Puca Nacua’s stats, that having blazing speed isn’t a requirement for being an effective and explosive receiver in the NFL. Also adding that Diggs and Shakir are listed at 6’0”, having some size besides Kincaid would be a good thing. I firmly believe in the modern NFL having more good options the QB had to throw to make the offense more dynamic and consequently more explosive. Right now the Bills have 4 of the 5 or 6 they need in Cook, Diggs, Kincaid, and Shakir, but only Kincaid and Shakir were catching reliably late in the year.

Im not sure what your definition of ‘explosiveness” is but Nacua was 5th in YAC last season. His 6.0 yards of YAC/r was the highest of the top receivers besides Samuel and Rashee Rice. He even had a higher average than Hill. Nacua also had 41 plays of 20 or more yards. Lamb had 41. YAC master Samuel had only 30. Hill was the best at 54 and no one else was even close By the way the Bills’ Shakir averaged 7.2 yards YAC/r. Diggs who averaged only 3.7 yards YAC/r, in 2023, 3.9 in 2022 and 3.1 in 2021. Kincaid was only 4.3 yards. Also if you look at big plays (catches of 20 or more yards), Diggs fell from 35 in 2022 to 19 in 2023. However this number really varies. In the last 4 years Diggs has gone 32, 24, 35 and 19. These stats make it clear that raw speed is not perfectly correlated to “explosiveness”. It’s certainly a factor, but scheme, defensive setup, and complimentary WRs have a role as well. If the Bills want to be more explosive on offense they need to get Shakir more involved and add a 3rd WR who the defenses must respect and scheme for. Honestly, any of the top 10 receivers in this draft will probably accomplish that goal. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php

Speed without being able to catch is useless. Sure I’d like more speed, but are 20 yard plus plays simply a function of speed or are they from the ability to find openings in the zone, breaking a tackle and or beating a CB in man coverage? One thing I notice about the Bills is how rarely they came down with 50/50 balls, especially in the end zone. Also no one is being drafted in the first without good speed. Last I looked Nacau’s 4.57 speed hasn’t kept him from being an explosive WR in the NFL.

The Bills window is open because we have a top 3 QB in his prime, nearly an entire offense of good players including a very good O line, a top young TE, a very good young RB, and 2/3 of an excellent starting receiving group. We also have excellent depth at LB, 3 good to excellent starters at the corners, and two very high-end DL players. We also possess a good HC, who is a terrific defensive coach, and an OC who I believe in. I think Brady, with a whole off-season to plan, will create the most dynamic Bills offense in years. The bottom line is that the Bills have good to great players in 10/11 starting positions on offense with very good depth on the Oline and TE and 8/11 on defense. Most of the significant starting roster holes (WR, S, Edge, and DT), can and will be addressed early in the draft (we have 10 picks), helping to continue the roster's youth movement. If Miller returns to form (admittedly a big if) then we'll have 9/11 good to excellent starters on defense. Of the returning starters under contract 10 of the 19 will be aged 24-27 next season and only 4 are over 30. If Beane has similar success this draft as he did last year, I think you'll be able to add at least 2 (likely WR and S) to the list of starters 27 and younger next year. This is a trend that is likely to continue as next season could be the final year in Buffalo for Morse, Poyer, Diggs, and Miller, who are our 4 starters over 30.

The Bills will be looking at a variety of receivers, but I think size and hands have to be the dominant traits. Here are Bills WRs under contract (including futures) Diggs - 6' 191 Harty - 5'6" 170 Shakir - 6' 190 Shorter - 6'4" 223 Hamler - 5'9" 178 Isabella - 5'9" 188 The only receiver with any height and size is ironically named Shorter, and he never saw the field last season as a rookie. I also doubt if Harty, Hamler or Isabella make the team next season. So what receivers should the Bills be looking at? Thomas - 6'4" and has excellent speed Legette - I crossed him off my list because he measured only 6'1" at the Senior Bowl Coleman - 6'4" Mitchell - 6'4" with great hands Franklin - 6'3" Johnny Wilson - 6'7" Brenden Rice - 6'3" Worthy, McConkey, and Pearsall all interest me, but more as a 2nd WR pick vs the 1st player the Bills select.

I think how many WRs they draft will depend partially on what they think of Shorter and whether or not they restructure Harty's contract. With Diggs and Shakir 2/3 of the starters, nothing is going to change the need for a Davis replacement, but keeping Shorter and Harty may limit management's belief that they need additional WRs in the draft. I'm for drafting at least 2 WRs within the 1st 4 rounds, but until we see how Beane gets us under the cap, we won't know how many WRs he'll target. So far in his tenure, he has never picked a WR in the first 3 rounds. Each time I do one of the simulators, I try to add 2 WRs, 2 S, 1 CB, 2 DT, 1 Edge, 1 RB, and a C. I try to trade down from 28 to add at least an extra 3rd rd pick and it seems that each time UGA's Van Pran (C) falls to me in the 3rd. He is too good a player to pass up.