GASabresIUFan

I live in Atlanta. If they get a real QB you should see an explosion of production from Pitts and London.

What does this have anything to do with my post? I was analyzing top WRs and saw that it was half and half between 1st rd players and non-first rd players. Given where the Bills draft and the type of player available at 28, the Bills seem destined to land a WR at that position. After all, this is a WR thread. If you want to read my thoughts on the draft at large, I posted a look at our most critical needs that might be filled in the draft. I concluded that I expected to try to get a starting WR in the draft, then get rotational players early at DT and Edge followed by an eventual starter at S, but for next season I expected the starting S to come from free agency. I then expect, because 3/5 of the Oline are on 1 year deals, for the Bills in add a center and OT in the middle rounds of the draft. In the later rounds, I expect another DT, and depth players at TE, CB, LB and possible at RB depending on how the draft falls.

I don’t think he’ll be back next season. Too much cap benefit to moving on especially if they retain Hines after a contract restructure. I do believe Beane will draft a 2nd WR in the 5th (we have 2 5th rd picks), but if they like Shorter and release Harty maybe they sign a cheap vet instead.

and he created a very nice Men's store - O'Connell Lucas and Chelf, now simply called O'Connell's.

Except he is still in the NFL as a backup most recently in Chicago. If he is really that bad, how is he still in the league?

I’ve been playing with the simulators, but realized I needed an approach based upon where we might need starters that could reasonably come from the draft. Given where we are picking I came to the following conclusion. The only starter we should expect is at WR. I also think if we grab DT and Edge early in the draft, they should be able to compete for a starters job or at least significant snaps in rotation with vets. Even Rousseau rotated into the lineup his first season. I also looked at the depth chart to see what positions Beane might target mid way and late in the draft. Here is the depth chart how I think things will go based on position allocation from 2023 opening day roster QB Allen - FA Backup RB Cook - Ty Johnson (FA re-sign), Hines (restructured deal) TE Kincaid, Knox - Late Round Draftee (or UDFA) WR Diggs, 1st draft pick, - Shorter, Shakir, late rd pick/Hamler OT Brown, Dawkins - Van Denmark, Mid Round Draft Pick OG Torrence, McGovern - Anderson, Doyle C Morse - Bates, Mid to late Rd Draft pick DT - Oliver, FA signee, - Early Rd Pick, Cheap FA signee, Late Rd Pick (Ideally we bring back Epenesa - because he knows the defense) Edge - Rousseau, Miller - Early Rd Pick, Jonathan, LB - Milano, Benard - Williams, Spector, FA or late Pick CB- Douglas, Benford, T Johnson, Elam, White (IR), Mid to late pick, Cheap FA S - Poyer, FA Signee - Mid draft pick, Hamlin, late pick/cheap FA Picks 1,2,3 - WR (w size and hands) Edge, DT - I hope we trade from 28 down some to get an extra 3rd to draft a Safety. Picks 4,5,6 - S, OT, C, or CB - These are priorities positions to draft because Poyer, T Johnson, Douglas, Dawkins, Brown, and Morse are currently on one year deals. This may change as some of these guys are extended to reduce their 2024 cap hit. Picks 7,8,9,10 - CB, DT, WR (speed), LB, S UDFAs - RB, TE, OLine, Punter? This is my first result using this analysis. I traded 28 for 35, 71 and 136. I thought it came out pretty well. 35 - Mitchell, WR Tex - Size, Hands and decent speed 60 - Hall, DL OSU - Good run stuffer who can get to the QB. 71 - Bullock, S USC - I think he could start immediately 99 - Van Pran, C/IOL UGA - Would allow us to possibly trade Bates to save 4+ in cap and get an asset back 128 - Booker, Edge Kan 136 - Pearl, OT Ill 158 - Wingo, DT LSU - Value pick who can rush the passer and stop the run 161 - McCaffrey, WR Rice - good hands and speed 197 - J Jones, CB FSU 201 - Wiley, TE TCU 205 - Jacobs, LB PSU 245 - McClellan, RB Bama

Ray Lewis is a wonderful mentor to young Ravens.

I looked at the WR stat this past season and 13 receivers finished in the top 25 in Catches, Yards, and 20+ plays. Of the 13, 7 were drafted in the 1st rd and 6 were drafted in round 2-5. 3 of the top 4, Hill, St. Brown, and Nacua were drafted in the 4th or 5th round. Of the 7 1st rd players, Lamb, DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Evans, Chase, Olave, and DeVonta Smith, 3 were top 10 picks, 2 from picks 11-20, and 2 in the last 3rd. There is also no size requirement, except being at least 6 feet tall. Hill and Moore were the only players under 6 feet. Of the remaining 11, 5 were 6-2 or taller. Evans was the tallest and heaviest at 6'5 231. DeVonta Smith was the lightest at 170, followed by Olave at 187 and Hill at 191. The other 10 were 200 lbs or greater. The point of this analysis is that the Bills will probably get an impact WR in the first, but there is also a really good chance that the WR drafted later in the draft could emerge as the better player of the two.

I can understand that. The real issue is getting and keeping quality depth when you are in a bit of a cap crunch. The Bills are likely to lose Floyd, Jones, and Epenesa up front. Those are 3 key contributors even if 2/3 weren't "starters". If Miller can't return to a reasonable form, the D Line, no matter what Beane does will be a huge question mark entering next season. We also only have 4 DL on the roster in Rousseau, Miller, Oliver and Jonathan and we usually carry 9. The other void area is Safety. Poyer and Hamlin are under contract, but who knows what if anything either player has at this point. Ultimately these are the two areas that Beane is going to have to throw his limited FA budget at. Some help will certainly come from the draft, but Beane has to bring in some real experienced help if this team is going to succeed on defense next season. Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about our other "needs". We'll draft a WR to replace Davis. RB depth is easy to come by cheaply or with a late draft pick. OLine depth will come from the draft and we have excellent depth at TE, LB and CB.

Given the depth at WR and Safety, this is an ideal draft to trade down from the 1st to the early second to get an extra top-100 pick.

He had the best season by a Bills RB since McCoy.

Like Ladd, Mitchell is being underrated by people here and in the media. They guy is fantastic. The Adonai teamed with Bowers and McConkey to help UGA win two National Championships catching key passes to help win both games. In fact, he has played in 5 CFP games and caught a TD pass in each one. He is big, quick, has fantastic hands, and knows how to get open. I will be thrilled if the Bills took him at 28. He is a twice as good version of Gabe Davis. Mitchell transferred to Texas to be closer to his daughter. By the way here are the UGA's players who caught a pass in the 2022 CFP Championship game. Bowers (2024 draft 1st rd grade), George Pickens (Steelers), Adonai Mitchell (2024 draft 1/2 rd grade), James Cook (Bills), Darnell Washington (Steelers), James Burton (2024 draft 2nd rd grade), Kearis Jackson (Titans), Kenny McIntosh (Seahawks) and Ladd McConkey (2024 draft 1/2 rd grade). No player caught more than 4 passes in that game. Not a bad collection of talent.

I have all three items. Not sure why I've kept the flashlight and the radio. Yes, the flashlight was for the halftime show. I've also been to an NCAA BB final (IU lost to Maryland), a CFP Final (UGA choked against Bama), World Series games (Braves 91 & 92), and Stanley Cup games (Sabres in 1975 - Bat/Fog game). Given my teams' history when I attend, I don't think I'll be attending again any time soon.

I’ve been to one Super Bowl here in the Atl. Saw my Bills lose to the hated Boys and their awful fans. The swag was pretty good. The seat had a nice seat cushion, with a flash light and small radio with headphones.

Don't be afraid to like him. He is as good as the tape shows. The best thing about him and Bowers is that they always made the big play. He is exactly the type of player the Bills need. If he was two inches taller, he'd probably be in the top 5 WRs taken.

Here is sort of the current depth chart: Possible Cap Casualties are underlined. Players in italics are guys I think Beane will work with to lower their cap hits. OFFENSE QB - Allen; Backups - ZERO; Futures contract: Buechele RB - Cook; Backups - Hines (IR), Gilliam (FB); Futures contract: Evans WR - Diggs, Shakir; Backups - Shorter (IR), Harty; Futures: Isabella, Hamler, Shavers, Thompson TE - Kincaid; Backups - Knox; Futures: McKitty: Other: Davidson (IR) Guards - McGovern, Torrence; Backup - Bates; Tackles - Brown, Dawkins; Backup - Doyle(IR), Van Denmark Futures: Anderson, Gouraige Center - Morse; Backup - Bates DEFENSE Safety - Poyer; Backup - Hamlin; Futures: Williamson Corners - Benford, Douglas, T Johnson; Backups - White(IR), Neal, Elam; Futures: K. Brown (PS), Ingram Linebacker - Milano(IR), Benard; Backups - Williams, Spector Edge - Miller, Rousseau; Backup- Jonathan Tackle - Oliver; Backup - ZERO; Futures: Ankou, Cline Specialists - Bass, Martin & Ferguson That's a 51-man roster of contracted players. Obviously, that's not close to what we'll see next fall, but it does give a pretty good feel for the roster situations. Clear areas on need: Backup QB, at least 5 players along the D line (Edge or tackle), one more LB, at least 2-3 more safeties, possibly a 3rd TE, 2-3 WRs, and another backup RB. Overall, it looks like the needs are about 14-15 players. Starters are needed at WR, Safety, and DT.

Not exactly. We have 10/11 starters on offense returning and 9/11 on defense if Miller is healthy. That’s not exactly needing everything.

We started 2 rookies last year (Kincaid and Torrence) and 4 2nd year players (Cook, Shakir, Bernard, and Benford). Will we start 6 rookies? I highly doubt it, but depending on how the draft goes I can easily see a rookie WR and a rookie S starting next season. I do think we'll see other rookies, especially on the DL, get significant snaps. That's the nature of building depth on a team currently over the cap. On a side note, someone mentioned earlier that drafting for needs while ignoring how the draft falls is a mistake. I generally agree, especially if a really good player falls to you. I did a few mock draft simulations and UGA C Van Pran fell a few times to us at 99. If this happens in real life, the Bills should jump at the chance to grab their future starting center even with Morse and Bates on the roster.

Scary right? How do you complete a roster with only 19 mill in cap space before signing your draft picks? 10 vet bottom of the barrel contracts will cost 15-20 mill.

I can understand how most feel a FA signing at WR is likely. After all Beane has never drafted a receiver above the 4th round and continues to search the Walmart clearance rack for help at the position like Harry and Sherfield. My hope is he finally sees the light and commits real draft capital to the position. We need a cost controlled Davis replacement and an eventually Diggs replacement. Given the depth in this draft at WR this seems like the year of do both. Until we shave 70 Mill off our current cap, everyone is out of our price range. I calculate the top 30 Bills plus dead cap costs us about 261 million in cap.

Given the Bills limited cap space, none of these needs will be change too much by FA signings. The most we can hope for is that they bring back Epenesa or Jones and signing a mid level safety. Even if sign both Jones and Epenesa that won’t end the need for depth at those positions. All it will do is change in what round we draft the depth. We likely won’t see FA spending at WR or OLine depth. I still see us going WR then Safety with the first two picks and then looking elsewhere after that. My hope is, given the depth in the draft at those two positions, is that Beane trades down a few slots in the first to pick up an extra 3rd. I don’t think Franklin or Coleman will still be on the board at 28. Therefore the Bills are looking at the next tier of receivers and most of them, guys like Worthy, Mitchell, McConkey, Legette, and Polk will still be there in the early 2nd.

https://theathletic.com/5252981/2024/02/06/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-needs-holes-positions/ Primary Needs 1) 1, maybe 2 explosive receivers. Need to replace Davis and could use a legit downfield threat. 2) Defensive End - Lawson, Floyd, and Epenesa are all FAs. They think it will be a challenge to bring both Floyd and Epenesa back. I don't think either will return. Regardless, they suggest getting someone this draft to split time with Miller and takeover for him in 2025 3) Defensive Tackle - Jones, Settle, Ford, and Phillips are FAs, leaving only Oliver as a returning starter (or contributor for that matter). They think a Day 2 or early day 3 draft pick will help fill the void. 4) Safety - They should have drafted someone last year to learn from Hyde and Poyer. Could this be the place they spend some FA $? Even if they sign someone, Hamlin is the only depth behind Poyer. They need to draft someone. I think they need to spend 2 draft picks on safeties. Secondary needs 1) Offensive Tackle - Brown & Dawkins are FAs after next season. They need better depth here even with Van Denmark on the roster. 2) Center - Morse is an FA after next season as well. He is also 32. Time to draft his possible replacement. 3) RB - Beane likes to draft RBs. Cook is all the team has right now. Tertiary needs (need depth only) 1) Cornerback - Benford and Douglas are the starters. Neal, Elam, Taron Johnson, and White are under contract for next season. They like the idea of bringing back Dane Jackson or Levi Wallace as cheap FAs for added depth depending on what happens with White. Also drafting someone late. 2) Linebacker - 4 LBs under contract. They need a 5th LB and that can come from a Day 3 pick or getting an FA for special teams. 3) Punter - Do they bring back Martin? They have to decide well before the draft. The article suggests signing a priority UDFA getting him on the practice squad for 2024 and replacing Martin in 2025. Why not just re-sign the Punt G-D?

He is the same size as Diggs and Shakir. He be will successful in the NFL even if used on the outside.

Ladd isn't going in the first. I've watched him play in person over 20 times and he is an amazing WR. He runs great routes, can line up anywhere, has the moves to make players miss, and has good speed and great hands. What he doesn't have is size although he is 6' and he has a long injury history. Those two factors will knock him to the 2nd round and depending on how well he runs at the combine or his pro day, he could even slip into the 3rd. That said he will make any team that drafts him immediately better. He knows how to get open and almost always makes the big catch. He and Bowers were a devasting combo. They were so good Burton transferred to Bama, because he knew he wouldn't be the focus of the offense at Georgia. Here are some typical Ladd highlights Ladd;s crazy TD at 6:25

When drafted that seemed like a possibility and may still be a possibility. He dropped just one pass on 114 targets while at Florida and averaged nearly 20 yards a catch. He was even a higher-rated recruit from high school over Chase, St Brown, and Waddle. That's pretty good company. He started at PSU, but couldn't beat out Washington's Dotson or the recently signed KJ Hamler and transferred to Florida. https://www.buffalobills.com/news/top-five-things-to-know-about-new-buffalo-bills-wr-justin-shorter A guy with that pedigree you would hope would have shown something last year, but a hamstring injury put him on IR for the season. So he gets a reset in 2024. I'm hoping we bring in two guys in the draft and let Shorter compete with them for a job.