GASabresIUFan

I’m no capologist, but the way I understand the idea is that the Bills would change his salary and roster bonus to a signing bonus prorated over 4 years thus decreasing the cap hit by the 7 mill. My guess is it would increase his dead cap hit in 2025 by about 2.5, but according to spotrac.com this would still be favorable as his current dead cap in 2025 is 4.1 vs an active cap of 16+. What I don’t know is void years and things of that nature that would affect our cap for White even if cut this year. The other thing I don’t know is whether an injury settlement is required vs an out-right release. If required, who knows what this might look like in the end. If it is required maybe Joe’s idea is a smarter way to proceed.

In general, I agree with your contention why hold onto a twice-injured CB who is unlikely to return at his former all-pro level? However, I get the impression that White is part of the leadership on this team and that Beane likes him. I also look at our depth beyond the 3 starters (Benford, Douglas, and Johnson) and think that White may still have a future in Buffalo. Do you trust Elam or Neal if one of the 3 starters gets hurt? That's where the Athletic's idea comes in. It allows the Bills to get more cap savings than an outright release while still keeping him and allowing him to recover properly from his injury.

Morse isn’t getting cut unless he says he’s retiring. If he says he wants to return, he is our starting center. The only question is how we get his cap hit down.

https://theathletic.com/5238669/2024/02/02/buffalo-bills-offseason-salary-cap/ This is the best approach I've seen 1) Josh - Restructure salary and roster bonus - 22.63 in savings 2) White - Roster bonus due in early March - sign an extension but one without any guarantees to 2027. Allows White time to heal and gives the Bill immediate savings - 7.39 3) Douglas - Extend Douglas for two years - 6.03 in savings 4) Knox - Restructure -5.86 in savings 5) Morse - one-year extension with 3 void years - 5.01 in savings 6) McGovern - turn his base salary into a signing bonus - $3.12 in savings 7) Hines - pay cut - 2.5 in savings 8.) Milano - restructure - Salary to bonus - 2.19 in saving 9) Bates - turn salary in bonus - 2.08 in savings 10) Poyer - Restructure + a void year - 1.765 in savings 11) Harty - pay cut - 1.5 in savings (I'd cut him if we are keeping Hines) 12) T Johnson - Extension - Depending on extension length - potential savings 2-5 million 13) Dawkins - Extension - 2 years with possible 2 void years - potential savings 2-4 million? more? This nets us about 63-70 million. I still think we need to get to 80. Not sure how he gets there. I'm moving on from Harty and Hines as I can find cheaper and better replacements for substantially less. Middle to late-round draftees could perform at their levels for less than $2 mill total. I'd cut both, save the $9 mill, and use draft picks or other depth FAs as replacements. That saves $7 mill net vs the $4 mill projected in the article.

What can the Bills do to get cap complaint? They have to dump or restructure about 75-80 million to have any freedom in free agency and to sign their draft picks. The big piece will likely be moving some or all of Josh’s 23.5 salary to a bonus of some sort, shrinking Josh’s can hit significantly. The cuts should be Hines (cap savings $5 mill), Harty (4.2), White (6), although there is probably some things Beane can do to keep Hines and White, but restructure to reduce their cap hits significantly. White, if designated for June 1 would save 10 mill in cap for 2024. Morse, Douglas, Dawkins, T Johnson are all on the last year of their current deals. I can see all of them being extended a year or two to create cap space through bonus structuring. I’m sure there are other restructuring Beane could do to come the necessary cap space. I can also see Morse retiring, and Bates taking over his slot. This would save nearly 8.5 Other potential cap casualties Gilliam (savings 1.9), Neal (2.9), and Martin (1.2). All of this gets about 55-60 off the books in 2024. I figured a out $3 mill in savings per extension for the 4 players. These move leaves us about $20 mill short of the goal. I wonder if we can somehow defer for cap purposes 3 mill each from Diggs and Miller and push it to the 2026 cap. This will eat some of the cap savings in 2026, but not really significantly. I also think Diggs will be here through 2026 anyway and Miller through 2025. Miller’s dead cap is $9 (vs 20 salary in 2026) and Digg’s dead cap is $5 in 2027 (vs a salary of 18).

The Bills draft history says otherwise. I agree with you generally on 6th rd or later and that is reflected on the draft chart I linked earlier. However, Beane and Watney had a pretty good 5th track record. Since 2017, the Bills have drafted Milano, Neal, Wyatt Teller (all-pro G Beane let go way too early), Doyle, Shakir, and Shorter. Shorter and Doyle are still unknowns, but getting Milano, Teller, and Shakir is pretty amazing. They have done pretty well in the 6th and 7th. McCloud, Dane Jackson, Bass, Hodgins, Spector, and Benford are all 6th or 7th-round picks. Benford is the real gem, but McCloud and Jackson have very solid careers, and Spector shows some good promise. Honestly, given our cap and depth issues, I want as many lottery tickets in this draft as possible.

No not in the 1st, but last year he traded down 3 times to get extra draft capital in the draft after moving up a few slots to get Kincaid in the first.

I know. People here keep saying trade up to get X receiver or trade everything to get y receiver. Sadly that is a sure way to fail this off-season given we are 50 million over the cap and have 22 UFAs. Given the depth at WR & S in this draft and our desperate need for young, cost-controlled, defensive talent at safety, DT, and Edge, getting a 4th top 100 pick by trading down 3-7 slots from 28 will go a long way toward filling those holes while getting us the WR we need to replace Davis. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=gb When looking at this chart the 28th pick is worth 660 "points." Sliding down to say 35 or 36 will net us an additional late 3rd rd pick. If the team is desperate enough we could get a pick in the mid 80's instead of 90's. A perfect partner for us could be Ari who has 27, 35, 66, 71 & 90. I'd trade 28 (and 201 or 205 if necessary) for 35 & 90.

I think the thread question should be do they have the guts not to move on from White.

The Bills trade out of the 1st round to get an extra pick in the 3rd round.

Totally agree.

The 1 CB/S also stands out especially because the kid is a bust. The 4 DL also stands out considering we only have two of the four on the roster.

Priority list 1. DT - we have only one signed. I see 2 additions in the draft and an FA as the starter. I expect a McGovern-level signing if Jones isn’t re-signed. I think they'll grab one DT in the 1st 3 rounds. 2. Safety. Poyer and Hamlin are signed. Need an FA possible starter and at least one higher draftee to compete in camp for the starter's job. We need someone better than Rapp. I expect S to be drafted in the top 4 rounds. 3. WR - Need a Davis upgrade and an eventual Diggs replacement maybe as early as 2025. This should be our 1st pick, even if management likes Shorter as Gabe's replacement. GB convinced me that you can’t have enough talent in the receiving room. I’m also interested in a late-round WR, but suspect we’ll see a cheap FA instead. 4. Edge - Rousseau is the man. Miller is a maybe and Jonathan an unknown. We are going to need two bodies here. I see one middle draftee and a cheap FA. Maybe we find enough money to keep Epenesa and lower the draft priority. 5 & 6 OT and Center. Brown and Dawkins are on 1-year deals, as is Morse and Bates. Get some middle-round bodies in and see if one has the goods to be a starter in 2025. It would be a dream draft if Van Pran falls to the Bills in the 3rd. That would also us to trade Bates and save $5 million in cap to use elsewhere. 7. CB Douglas and I think Taron Johnson only have one year left on their deals and who knows whether While returns. Elam is a bust so far and the CBs on special teams aren’t returning. Seems like a good time to grab one in the 5th or 6th rounds when we have 5 picks. 8. RB - Right now Cook is our only RB. Re-signing Ty Johnson should be done. If Hines’ knee doesn’t look good, I expect Beane to draft more depth here. TE and LB need one more player each. I expect both jobs to go to cheap FA.

The only real recipe is staying healthy if you have good talent. The Bills had the talent, but couldn't stay healthy - Lost Milano and White for the year, Jones for most of the year, and then lost 7 starters on defense during W18 and the WC game. Hard to win a Super Bowl with that much talent out or playing with significant injuries.

In my humble opinion both guys should be sent packing. Both guys are primarily kick returners and to their credit, both guys gave the Bills a lift one game each over the last two seasons. However, one game each isn't worthy 4-5 million. Harty gave us last year 15 catches for 150 yards and 1 TD. We can replace that production from a practice squad player. Hines gave us mostly receiving yards with 30 catches for 241 and 1 TD (plus 33 yards rushing on 24 attempts - awful). Again this is easily replaced production. Ty Johnson gave us nearly 200 yards from scrimmage in 10 games as a 3rd stringer for 1/5 the cost. The only reason I think they’ll bring Hines back is our lack of backs in the organization that know the offense. Re-sign Johnson as the power back and re-sign Hines as the speed back & kick returner (depending on his knee) at a greatly reduced cap hit and Beane will call it a day. Draft 2 WRs, one early and one late to go with Diggs, Shakir and maybe Shorter.

Here is the Bills vs KC 2023 1-1 RS W14(R) W - 20-17; DP(H) L-24-27 2022 1-0 RS W6(R) W - 24-20 2021 1-1 RS W5(R) W - 38-20; DP(R) L 36-42 2020 0-2 RS W6(H) L - 17-26; CC(R) L-24-38 In the last 4 years we are 3-4 against the Chiefs 3-1 RS, 0-3 in the playoffs. The point differential is -11 (stemming from getting blown out in the 2020 CC). Over the last 3 seasons, we are 3-2 with a +16 pt differential. No team is closer to the Chiefs level than us. With a little luck in the health department, we beat the KC this past season. Add some astute additions by Beane plus a little luck in the health department this coming season, we will be the best team in the AFC.

I live in Atlanta. If they get a real QB you should see an explosion of production from Pitts and London.

What does this have anything to do with my post? I was analyzing top WRs and saw that it was half and half between 1st rd players and non-first rd players. Given where the Bills draft and the type of player available at 28, the Bills seem destined to land a WR at that position. After all, this is a WR thread. If you want to read my thoughts on the draft at large, I posted a look at our most critical needs that might be filled in the draft. I concluded that I expected to try to get a starting WR in the draft, then get rotational players early at DT and Edge followed by an eventual starter at S, but for next season I expected the starting S to come from free agency. I then expect, because 3/5 of the Oline are on 1 year deals, for the Bills in add a center and OT in the middle rounds of the draft. In the later rounds, I expect another DT, and depth players at TE, CB, LB and possible at RB depending on how the draft falls.

I don’t think he’ll be back next season. Too much cap benefit to moving on especially if they retain Hines after a contract restructure. I do believe Beane will draft a 2nd WR in the 5th (we have 2 5th rd picks), but if they like Shorter and release Harty maybe they sign a cheap vet instead.

and he created a very nice Men's store - O'Connell Lucas and Chelf, now simply called O'Connell's.

Except he is still in the NFL as a backup most recently in Chicago. If he is really that bad, how is he still in the league?

I’ve been playing with the simulators, but realized I needed an approach based upon where we might need starters that could reasonably come from the draft. Given where we are picking I came to the following conclusion. The only starter we should expect is at WR. I also think if we grab DT and Edge early in the draft, they should be able to compete for a starters job or at least significant snaps in rotation with vets. Even Rousseau rotated into the lineup his first season. I also looked at the depth chart to see what positions Beane might target mid way and late in the draft. Here is the depth chart how I think things will go based on position allocation from 2023 opening day roster QB Allen - FA Backup RB Cook - Ty Johnson (FA re-sign), Hines (restructured deal) TE Kincaid, Knox - Late Round Draftee (or UDFA) WR Diggs, 1st draft pick, - Shorter, Shakir, late rd pick/Hamler OT Brown, Dawkins - Van Denmark, Mid Round Draft Pick OG Torrence, McGovern - Anderson, Doyle C Morse - Bates, Mid to late Rd Draft pick DT - Oliver, FA signee, - Early Rd Pick, Cheap FA signee, Late Rd Pick (Ideally we bring back Epenesa - because he knows the defense) Edge - Rousseau, Miller - Early Rd Pick, Jonathan, LB - Milano, Benard - Williams, Spector, FA or late Pick CB- Douglas, Benford, T Johnson, Elam, White (IR), Mid to late pick, Cheap FA S - Poyer, FA Signee - Mid draft pick, Hamlin, late pick/cheap FA Picks 1,2,3 - WR (w size and hands) Edge, DT - I hope we trade from 28 down some to get an extra 3rd to draft a Safety. Picks 4,5,6 - S, OT, C, or CB - These are priorities positions to draft because Poyer, T Johnson, Douglas, Dawkins, Brown, and Morse are currently on one year deals. This may change as some of these guys are extended to reduce their 2024 cap hit. Picks 7,8,9,10 - CB, DT, WR (speed), LB, S UDFAs - RB, TE, OLine, Punter? This is my first result using this analysis. I traded 28 for 35, 71 and 136. I thought it came out pretty well. 35 - Mitchell, WR Tex - Size, Hands and decent speed 60 - Hall, DL OSU - Good run stuffer who can get to the QB. 71 - Bullock, S USC - I think he could start immediately 99 - Van Pran, C/IOL UGA - Would allow us to possibly trade Bates to save 4+ in cap and get an asset back 128 - Booker, Edge Kan 136 - Pearl, OT Ill 158 - Wingo, DT LSU - Value pick who can rush the passer and stop the run 161 - McCaffrey, WR Rice - good hands and speed 197 - J Jones, CB FSU 201 - Wiley, TE TCU 205 - Jacobs, LB PSU 245 - McClellan, RB Bama

Ray Lewis is a wonderful mentor to young Ravens.

I looked at the WR stat this past season and 13 receivers finished in the top 25 in Catches, Yards, and 20+ plays. Of the 13, 7 were drafted in the 1st rd and 6 were drafted in round 2-5. 3 of the top 4, Hill, St. Brown, and Nacua were drafted in the 4th or 5th round. Of the 7 1st rd players, Lamb, DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Evans, Chase, Olave, and DeVonta Smith, 3 were top 10 picks, 2 from picks 11-20, and 2 in the last 3rd. There is also no size requirement, except being at least 6 feet tall. Hill and Moore were the only players under 6 feet. Of the remaining 11, 5 were 6-2 or taller. Evans was the tallest and heaviest at 6'5 231. DeVonta Smith was the lightest at 170, followed by Olave at 187 and Hill at 191. The other 10 were 200 lbs or greater. The point of this analysis is that the Bills will probably get an impact WR in the first, but there is also a really good chance that the WR drafted later in the draft could emerge as the better player of the two.

I can understand that. The real issue is getting and keeping quality depth when you are in a bit of a cap crunch. The Bills are likely to lose Floyd, Jones, and Epenesa up front. Those are 3 key contributors even if 2/3 weren't "starters". If Miller can't return to a reasonable form, the D Line, no matter what Beane does will be a huge question mark entering next season. We also only have 4 DL on the roster in Rousseau, Miller, Oliver and Jonathan and we usually carry 9. The other void area is Safety. Poyer and Hamlin are under contract, but who knows what if anything either player has at this point. Ultimately these are the two areas that Beane is going to have to throw his limited FA budget at. Some help will certainly come from the draft, but Beane has to bring in some real experienced help if this team is going to succeed on defense next season. Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about our other "needs". We'll draft a WR to replace Davis. RB depth is easy to come by cheaply or with a late draft pick. OLine depth will come from the draft and we have excellent depth at TE, LB and CB.